Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Nogrod]

It seems Greenie has opened a veritable Pandora's Box: spreadsheets, post-number and comment-number analysis, voting-minute comparisons...

Well, I'll still stick with a piece of paper and a pen.


First of all I must share the view expressed by a few already, that it seems likely the wolves were sitting back quite comfortably in the end of the Day. Especially in the light of Greenie's point, that the last votes could have been (or at least some of them probably were) crossposts. That doesn't mean that Form or Nilp are "shown innocents", and one of the two might totally be a wolf, but it does decrease at least my suspicions of them as it looks more likely the wolves were sound & safe.


On Lottie then.

With all the possible caveats considered, the wolves do want in the end to get rid of the Seer as soon as possible. Just remember the last game where the wolves would have won hands down if they had managed to find the Seer. So I'd claim that even if they have no clue as to who that might be, they'll make their pick keeping their thumbs up that they get the Seer. I mean, that's the consideration they keep in mind all the time.

So we have two theories on Lottie's "seerishness" thus far, expressed nicely by Brinn and Greenie (who had doubts about the validity of the reasoning she presented).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I also think we have to consider the possibility of Legate being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing Lottie's role, I thought her vote for Legate was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if Legate being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time. It was out of the blue enough to potentially make a Legatewolf and his pack think she was a Seer who had dreamed Legate and tried to come up with an argument to support voting for him when he hadn't really done anything suspicious yet.

Brinn is correct that the Seer seldom hits a wolf on the first Night and thence it is much more probable that if the Seer leaves hints about someone, that one is an innocent person. But, I'd add, that if someone sending any "seer-vibes" happens to have picked one of them, they are more or less forced to act on it.

There is also this:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

To me that looks more, or at east as "seerish" (the odd way of éxpressing it), than anything Lottie did to say she thinks about hS's innocence.

Yes, it may be they were going to and fro between the two, and then decided on Lottie for one reason or another, but it makes me a bit less confident on this explanation.


Which brings me to the Legate-wolf -scenario.

Legate himself said:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am not ruling out that her vote for me could be used to frame me, but to be sure, that would hardly constitute as enough reason for the Wolves to kill her. Besides, she decided to vote me only in the end, so it isn't like such a framing would make much sense to begin with. Most of all, the WWs would be by all logic first and foremost bound on finding the Seer, and this would hardly constitute as such.

I tend to disagree with the reasoning here. If Lottie had suspected Legate for longer, but especially with some decent reasoning behind it, then there wouldn't have been a good reason for them to suspect her especially seerish. But Lottie did quite an awkward, one might even say fabricated, case for Legate and sticked to it with some confidence (or with what looked like confidence).

A seer doesn't want to cry "I'm the Seer" all Day, but oftentimes Seers feel some pressure when the end of the Day draws nearer. It would be sad to get killed leaving nothing of your knowledge to others.

So her just coming up with it late in the Day, and with non-existant reasons, actually makes her look more seerish than not - in case Legate is a wolf, that is.


On the basis of that I'd say the latter explanation would be more plausible - that Legate is a wolf and the wolves went for the jackpot - than that the wolves thought Lottie a seer who dreamt of innocent Hui.

After saying that I find myself doubting it all. Would it really be that neat and tidy? I'd like to go back and see Lottie's post once more to look for a possible third explanation.