Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Won't get much from me today, I'm afraid - I'll be much more active tomorrow, should I live to see it.

I do have a point I noticed while skimming - Pitch and Kath both call out BG for pointing out gifteds, but Form does the same (if less egregiously) and no one batted an eye. I find that interesting, although - what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

Hey, I did bat an eye (#243)! I agree a wolf has no need of that (except if you think you can get them lynched or at least put enough pressure on them to force a reveal and confirm your suspicion, but normally you'd just kill them at Night, much less risky). A cobbler might, though, which fits my read on Form since pretty well the beginning of D1.


As for BG, well. I've noticed she seems to rely a lot on stuff other people have said (cf. 'Form as the cobbler because people say he may be'), which is not what we'd usually expect of an innocent, but in her case it's so blatant it may just be her playstyle, so I'm beginning to reconsider how suspicious her piggybacking on Hui's vote actually was.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

No, you read it right--though I might have said phrased it backwards. It would be more accurate to what I meant to say that my assessment of Kath should be more independent of the vote for her --but I was writing/thinking of the two of you together and that came out in your section.

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Are you now saying that if I hadn't voted her there and then you wouldn't consider her as wolvish as you do?

Well, yes--it's the whole package and what actually happened that I find suspicious. Take out some of the pieces, and the whole Jenga falls.

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As to the Shasta-noted Gifted-surmising... call it rust? I mean, I guess it makes sense to not point the wolves to someone you don't want them to hunt... but I don't actually know if that's true of either Nog or Shasta. They each give a vibe... I just don't know which side of the spectrum it is.

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I dunno, I just don't see a point for wolves to do that. Especially with how it's being pointed out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Thinlómien]

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

Somehing to keep in mind, yes. I get both "frustrated innocent" and "frustrated wolf who thinks he's being suspected for the wrong reasons" from his posts at the moment. Flipety flipety flip flop. Don't know what to think.

Originally Posted by BG

Nilp could also be a Cobbler, but I don't feel comfortable voting for him due to his suicidal tendencies.

1) You should not vote for cobblers but for wolves anyway, 2) why would suicidal tendencies disqualify someone as a lynch candidate? Also, in my experience, Nilp only nilps himself on Day1, if he survives that he starts playing more "normally" - as we have seen toDay. (Btw personally I'm still flipflopping on Nilp because he was fishy yesterDay, then a lot more reasonable toDay, but everything doesn't still quite add up.)

Originally Posted by Sally

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?

You're not suspicious. What I said was, basically half of the village is actively giving me innocent vibes. You are not, because you havent been around and aren't giving any vibes. Thus you are a more likely wolf than someone who seems actively innocent to me. Makes sense?

Re: discussing gifteds - I don't think it's a deliberate tactic from anybody (except maybe the cobbler!), it's either careless wolves (who are spicing their stories with "jumpy but could be guilty jumpy or innocent jumpy", possibly more likely about their fellows; and who are not considering an innocent should not stay stuff like that) or even more careless innocents (who do not realise they should not be doing that).

Originally Posted by Brinn

I realize that after trusting Lommy as a known innocent for all of last game, I'm falling into the habit of doing so in this game. Someone poke me, because I really don't know her role this time around.

*poke*

[Thinlómien]

I know it's late but a quick list bc I can't think otherwise (also bc a lot of people seem less innocent to me now that they have posted more, lol):

Nice
BG - strong clueless ordo who hasn't played in a while vibes
Mac - gut feeling says innocent, logic says I should question that bc last game gut feeling said guilty and he was innocent. But logic also failed me last game, so I'm just gonna give him the benefit of doubt for toDay.

Kinda nice
Pitchwife and Greenie - don't seem über innocent but not very guilty either and also, I like their independent thinking
Kath - don't really see where all the suspicion against her is coming from - wolves trying to orchestrate a nice lynch? I maintain she seems more cheerful as an innocent and more detached as a wolf and now she's the former. Nonetheless, her involvement in the Hui lynch is a bit dodgy.

Who knows
Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf
Nogrod - ugh, what a mess
Brinn - to be fair, she hasn't done anything really suspicious but she doesn't give me any strong innocent vibes like almost most others in the village
Nilp - dodgy yesterDay, seemed better toDay, but when I think about it, maybe not better enough?
Shasta and Rikae - both seemed rather innocent to me yesterDay, toDay less so
Sally - not enough data. Doesn't seem to suspect much people which is usually wolfy, but then again, I seem to have the same problem myself...
Form - still not sitting right with me but still aware it might be very kneejerk


edit: xed with everyone

[Formendacil]

I daresay it's a case of closing the barn door after all the horses have left, but as regards defending myself of accusations of not knowing what "everyone knows," I'm basically a newbie. I haven't played in something like three or four years, and before that another couple years... so, yeah, I'm not exactly a grizzled veteran of the WW wars anymore.

Anyway, because I have difficulty admitting I can be wrong, I won't. Instead, I'll say I like Kath having a vote, and it's getting to be suppertime, so... alea iacta est.

++Kath

[Boromir88]

A quick tally...

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)

Oi, that's an even quicker tally.

I considered playing a prank, but it seems you'll have enough confusion with the final 30 minutes. So let the staring contest continue.

30 minutes to go.

Edit: crossed with Form. Added his vote.

[Thinlómien]

I feel like we were playing another Day1. It would be nice to lynch a wolf toDay (wow really ) and have more to analyse toMorrow. I kinda don't like our odds toDay, everything looks horribly messy. And half an hour to go only.

Any thoughts about who people would like to see lynched?

I have to say that I personally don't have a strong preference, except NOT BG, Mac, Greenie, Pitch, or Kath. Or basically anything that starts looking "too easy".

Form would be okay. Nilp? Maaaaybe Rikae or Shasta. I'm a bit on the fence about Legate and Nogrod.

Brinn or Sally? If it happened I wouldn't cry (sorry lovelies!) but I don't really have a reason to push it.

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

[Nogrod]

Besides Legate I might be persuade to vote for...

Form - not adding more points besides many that are voiced already, but maybe that it feels he's overdoing it.

Brinn - she's very good at this, but looks like 100% non-committant, mainly agreeing and rubbing people the right way - and her suspicions feel more like blowing in the embers to see if they would light up.


EDIT: X'd with fex. Form voting Kath...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

No you don't, but the wolves would knowwhether Shasta or Nog are among them or not, so in case they're not you're narrowing down the choices for the wolves. How do I even have to explain this? (Also why am I bothering?)

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Actually the seer should have had three dreams by now. But that doesn't mean they are all alive. And so no, we shouldn't rely on the seer.

Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Indeed. Although they'll have had four toMorrow in any case (right, Boro)?

Correct. Seer has had 3 dreams so far.

[Rikae]

A thought: if the seer is night-killed the dead thread will have access to info we don't (their last dream, even if they thoroughly hinted the rest), so let's make sure, in that case, to do the fake-vote thing so they can be sure to empower someone who's voting correctly.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

This is what I see from Pitch on Form yesterday (and a comment after his vote that he was reconsidering him). Ignoring is the wrong word, but here Pitch is questioning Form on suspicious behavior (openly speculating about gifteds) but treating it as kind of a heads-up-this-is-the-correct-way-to-WW, not a suspicion. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I read it. I get an overall downplaying vibe. Cleaning up a mess, even.

Oh for crying out loud, you do realise that this was in answer to him basically saying "Yeah, well, but what does it matter, I was only speculating?" and I tried to explain how & why it does matter? How is that 'cleaning up a mess' rather than explaining why the mess is a mess in the first place?
If you're saying I should have given more weight to this when deciding my vote, that's a valid criticism. But that's it.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta, yesterDay

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

=/=

Originally Posted by Shasta, toDay

Huey's answer to me was a good ping, but it didn't outweigh the bad pings I'd had about him throughout the day.

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also note that I was the first real vote of the day (sorry, Nilp) and left the thread completely right after voting.

Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

=/=

I mean, I believe that that was what was on your mind, but that's still not what you said.



Not suspicious because of the placement of your vote, but because of the tone of "I like his answer, but oh well".

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy. I said I didn't have anywhere I was more comfortable voting, which was true - the only other place I might have gone was Pitch but I didn't want to vote for a perceived Cobbler.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(I should've probably have Newton'd to Nog's Leibniz and claimed that I had come up with the idea independently but noticed that he had already posted it. And I was using it for my superior theory anyway, to complete the oversimplified boffin history analogy.)

Anyway, my brain took an inordinately long time trying to word this vote post without tipping the punchline, so I'll just go ahead and vote:

++Macalaure

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

[Thinlómien]

Iiiinteresting. Somehow Mac (someone who seems innocent to me) and Nilp (someone who seems fishy to me) voting for each other made me think Mac more suspicious and Nilp more okay. Makes me maybe want to steer away from both of them for toDay.

[Nogrod]

Now this is getting interesting.

Of course only when we have just twenty minutes left.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The reason the wolves went after Lottie and not Mac is that Mac couldn't attack himself.

Maybe the reason the wolves went after Lottie instead of me is that they can only go after one at a time?

[Boromir88]

A quick tally

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)

15 to go.

[Nogrod]

Well. The Japanese are fighting back ferociously so I decided to take a pause from the combat fatigue and see what's going on in here.

Some unarranged thoughts.

BG looks like a rookie trying to learn the ropes and making a few fumbles on the way. That said there was at least one newbie-wolf back in the days who took all the juice out of the role of being a newbie and went far - did they even win? I don't remember who it was, but it was several years ago. Anyway BG is not topping my list of possible wolves.

Rikae I find a bit confusing - albeit that is more a "feeling-thing". I'm used to not feel secure or easy about her ever, but normally she does turn into quite reasonable and productive player if innocent. Thus far I haven't felt it. Well, it's Day2 so there's time for that transformation to take place.

ShastaI've liked thus far, well yesterDay, as toDay he hasn't said much but explain some of his posts from Day1. Why? Because he was one of the very few who actually made points about others - and they were reasonable points to my ear (and mind) at least.

I have disturbing vibes from Kath, Form and Brinn, maybe also of Greenie. Some of them are related to the points already raised by some others, the rest are just personal feelings of something not being quite honest there.

I still see Legate as the best bet to vote, but I'll see if I can find better choices during the last hour.

(Say what you say, but I still think my points are valid. Instead of yelling "no!", please offer a more logical, or better fact-serving, theory of Lottie's death.)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta

what need does a wolf have to call out possible gifteds in-thread?

This is a good point, though. A wolf might slip, sure, but other than that they have no reason to. It's the cobbler who has most interest in starting that discussion. Of all the ones accused (Nog, Nilp, Form, BG, did I miss one?), I'd actually say it makes them more innocent, with the exception of Nilp, who spins it in the despicably sinister direction of suspecting me.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also not what I said - I'm not sure why you're interpreting that as flippancy.

Well, fine for now. You're not my prime suspect at the moment, so I don't want to get into an argument right now. We'll see.