Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.)

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

That doesn't of course eliminate the possibility of spies.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).
"

That Sauron sure was a trusting fella! But then we see that as late as Dol Baran he actually assumed Saruman would simply hand over the Ringbearer on demand. Wise fool.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Do you really believe that Sauron was not smart enough to figure out the meaning of "Isildur's Bane" all on his own?

Gandalf: ‘Yes, alas! through [Gollum] the Enemy has learned that the One has been found again. He knows where Isildur fell. He knows where Gollum found his ring. He knows that it is a Great Ring, for it gave long life. He knows that it is not one of the Three, for they have never been lost, and they endure no evil. He knows that it is not one of the Seven, or the Nine, for they are accounted for. He knows that it is the One. - The Shadow of the Past

The only reason why Boromir and Faramir haven't figured it out as well, was that in Gondor they didn't know that Isildur took the Ring from Sauron. Sauron himself knew it fairly well. And he knew how Isildur fell. So the solution was easy.

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

Ha-ha, that is brilliant. Fool I was not to think about it myself.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).

Yes, it is baffling. This part hardly agrees with the other texts of "the Hunt". The very facts that Sauron had sent only 40 uruks to Saruman's 80 and also had forbidden the nazgul (who was near Amon Hen) to cross Anduin don't make sense to me at all. What harm could there have been to Mordor's secrecy if one starry night the nazgul landed his beast in front of Ugluk's band and kindly asked them to please turn eastwards?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

The only reason why Boromir and Faramir haven't figured it out as well, was that in Gondor they didn't know that Isildur took the Ring from Sauron. Sauron himself knew it fairly well. And he knew how Isildur fell. So the solution was easy.

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

In short, Isildur's possession of the Ring was known to very, very few: Elrond, the sole witness, and the survivors of the Gladden. Elrond's knowledge was circulated among the Wise, but is was always highly classified information.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

The quote I have given in the previous post proves that Sauron knew where Isildur fell and where Gollum found the Ring. Of course, he knew it by 3017-18, not when it actually happened: he had an Age to learn these facts. Sauron's agents were searching the Anduin even prior to Sauron's relocation to Mordor.

That the Ring caused Isildur's death by slipping off was a surmise made by the Wise - but Sauron could make the same surmise just as easily. After all, he knew his Ring better then the Wise did.

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

Yea, we better forget PJ, but in the "Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age" Isildur says in front of Elrond and Cirdan (who had witnessed the whole scene, so he couldn't lie):

‘This I will have as were-gild for my father's death, and my brothers. Was it not I that dealt the Enemy his death-blow?

Here is how the sequence of events is described:

But Sauron also was thrown down, and with the hilt-shard of Narsil Isildur cut the Ruling Ring from the hand of Sauron and took it for his own. Then Sauron was for that time vanquished, and he forsook his body, and his spirit fled far away and hid in waste places- "Of the Rings of Power..."

I see it this way. Sure it were Elendil and Gil-Galad who had brought Sauron down. He lay there vanquished and unresisting, dieing. But I am almost sure that Isildur managed to cut Sauron's finger before his spirit had left the body.

in the letter 211 Tolkien writes:

Though reduced to ‘a spirit of hatred borne on a dark wind’, I do not think one need boggle at this spirit carrying off the One Ring” back to Middle-earth after the drowning of Numenor.

So, if Isildur but waited a tad longer, the spirit of Sauron would have carried away the One Ring, leaving Isildur with no weregild!

As for Sauron's body, I guess it had decomposed as swiftly as Saruman's - weren't they both incarnate Maiar? Maybe faster, because it was indeed hot and burning. Natural combustion-and there is nothing to loot and nothing to dispose of.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Hmmmm. You're right, there.

All the same, Sauron waited until ca. 2940 to begin searching the Gladden Fields. Which means... I'm not sure. It took him that long to learn of Isildur's fall? Not likely- surely all Gondor's history was in the libraries of Minas Ithil when he took it, and I'm sure he had spies among the Gondorians and/or Black Numenoreans and/or rebel Umbar. Just took him that long to expand his power from Dol Guldur?

But even so, there would have been no particular reason for Sauron to think 'Isildur's Bane' was the Ring- it could have been an arrow, or a scimitar, or his horse..... The forensic investigation of the scene was carried out by the Elves, not the recently-extinct Orc-band.

How likely would Sauron have been, really, to be aware of Malbeth's prophecy? Who knew of it, aside from the Wise and the cheftains of the Dunedain? And even if he did, would he have believed it? I'm sure the history of the Third Age was littered with Nostrodamuses, most of whom were spouting rubbish.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

How likely would Sauron have been, really, to be aware of Malbeth's prophecy? Who knew of it, aside from the Wise and the cheftains of the Dunedain? And even if he did, would he have believed it? I'm sure the history of the Third Age was littered with Nostrodamuses, most of whom were spouting rubbish.

No, no - it has nothing to do with Malbeth.

Isildur's Bane was spoken about in a dream that first Faramir, then Boromir had seen in June 3018.
It was a fairly recent dream - and troubling. Sauron learned of these "oracular dream-words", as did Saruman (see UT, Hunt for the Ring). Denethor was troubled enough to send the Captain-General of Gondor to search the answers in the middle of nowhere, and this right after the assault on Osgiliath.

At the moment, Sauron was frantically searching for the Ring - the nazgul were out looking for the Shire and Baggins. It was quite simple to dechipher "Isildur's bane", sign of Doom that is at hand.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Yes, but likely the Nazgul who was sent to Isengard after the incident of Dol Baran demanded and obtained some explanations. I am not sure Sauron was satisfied though: he left Saruman in peace for a time, but at some point he did promise Isengard to The Mouth of Sauron.

Well, I think the Nazgul found just shut windows and flooded Isengard, the same as Gandalf did. Gandalf even says something like that, when riding with Pippin, I think - he says also that Sauron would crush Saruman now, but he cannot, Gondor and Rohan are between them. Sauron was not "satisfied" by any means, and the only reason why he left Saruman in peace was simply that he had to deal with his enemies fast. Even if Saruman had the Ring now, he could not attack him directly, until he could surround Orthanc by his armies.

That is much better than in A, no doubt. No slips of the tongue.

Yes, definitely.

Spies, I think - most likely among the uruks (or maybe Dunlendings). Saruman's uruks ultimately came from Mordor, so it was easy to plant a couple spies among them. Sauron had spies in Minas Tirith it seems - that's how he learned of the dream Faramir and Boromir had. Sauron had informers even in Shagrat's band:

Well yes, although it's a bit different having spies among your own servants and having spies in Orthanc, but it actually makes a lot of sense. Good idea. (Even though still I have to wonder, how did those spies communicate with Sauron. Okay, possibly they went [Orcs] let's say to Moria [Orcs] - where Sauron had, since some time, his own Orcs - and from there it was passed on; or to some other agents living in a cottage in Eastfold or such, who again passed the message on... meeting spies from the eastern riverbank every full moon or something like that... And Sauron had enough time to get this information.)

And as for the hypothesis of him seeing it with the Palantír, possible, but still, I am not sure how much accurately he could see with it - if there was not any "interference" because of the distance, or perhaps because of Saruman's art or something else?

I share your love for "the Hunt" and other Unfinished Tales. Such a shame "the Hunt" manuscripts are not published in full! I think, I like it so much because it is written much more realistically than the main narrative of LOTR. Here we learn of the motivations behind the actions of the good and the bad characters, of spies and traitors, of doubts and some unsavory decisions of the Wise.
The scenes with the nazgul before the Gates of Isengard and the questioning of Grima are very compelling and powerful. Pity we see no interaction between bad guys in LOTR (except between orcs, like the talk between Gorbag and Shagrat which I love as well).

Yes! Exactly. Actually, what I liked the most when I read the books for the first time was the Uruk-hai chapter and Uglúk & Grishnákh exchanges...

Yes, it is baffling. This part hardly agrees with the other texts of "the Hunt". The very facts that Sauron had sent only 40 uruks to Saruman's 80 and also had forbidden the nazgul (who was near Amon Hen) to cross Anduin don't make sense to me at all. What harm could there have been to Mordor's secrecy if one starry night the nazgul landed his beast in front of Ugluk's band and kindly asked them to please turn eastwards?

Well, I think Sauron was a bit naive in his power, I think - he believed that Saruman would not be able to withstand him, that he is a coward (in which he was right), and will hand over the prisoners and not dare to start anything in fear of Sauron's vengeance if he did. It was possibly also that "you send forty Orcs, I send forty Orcs, they will have a nice cooperation", just Saruman proved to be more daring here and sent twice more. (Or maybe it was "Let's meet by the river, each of us will send exactly twenty Orcs." Grishnákh comes with forty: "Guess what. Sauron lied." Uglúk: "Guess what. Saruman lied... more!" )
As for the Nazgul, it was some sort of "taboo" - Nazgul simply are NOT crossing the river, that's an order. You have to consider that we are looking at it from our a bit postmodern point of view, but it is something similar as when let's say in some ancient culture, people were banned to wear yellow colour. Sometimes, it did not even have any logical explanation why they should not do so, but it simply was the way it was done. You simply don't do that. Point.

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

In short, Isildur's possession of the Ring was known to very, very few: Elrond, the sole witness, and the survivors of the Gladden. Elrond's knowledge was circulated among the Wise, but is was always highly classified information.

But like Gordis says, Sauron knew and it was mentioned several times even in LotR (Shadows of the Past, Gandalf says something like "He knows where Isildur fell. He knows that it is a Ring..." etc.)