Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Gordis]

Great that you have found time to participate in the discussion, Legate.
First my comments on the minor points from the beginning of your post

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]Of course Sauron was probably clever enough not to trust Saruman completely, but generally speaking, he could have trusted "all right, I believe you have cast aside all your previous allegiances to the Free Peoples, or your personal interests, and are working just for me now." That is the basic way it was, I believe.

I think it was in Sauron's nature not to trust anyone completely, and if he had no choice but to trust somebody, then he trusted the nazgul, just because he virtually had their very souls in his hands (via the Nine Rings he held).

With Saruman he had nothing of this kind of safety precautions. I think Sauron realized that Saruman, given the opportunity, would definitely try to grab the Ring. But then again, Sauron was sure that ANYONE would desire to do the same: the Wise, Elves, Men, Orcs, Trolls - no one could be trusted in this matter. So Sauron couldn't really hold Saruman's lust for the Ring against him. It was simply unavoidable.

Perhaps the Witch-King reasoned this way as well, thus he was not shocked when Saruman said: "And if I knew where this thing was hid, I should not be here, but long gone before you to take it." It was the most damning thing of what he said, but it simply proved his desire for the Ring, which was a given anyway.

Another thing was to learn that Saruman had acted upon his desire, fooling Sauron about the location of the Shire. It was damning, but it also had to be expected.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]The main thing is: the WK did NOT suspect Saruman after talking to him by the Gate (as you can read), thus, even the fact that Saruman said "if I had it, you would call me Master" etc. had not in any way struck the WK. And this is what I mean to say: Why should it? I don't really see anything suspicous on that. Saruman was merely stating the FACTS. The WK indeed WOULD have bowed to Saruman, had he had the Ring. It was not meant to say: "If I had it, I will make you call me master", I believe it was simply meaning: "If I had it, IT will force you to call me master". Obviously. Saruman was a Maia, and merely having the Ring would make him a tremendous presence.

Actually, Saruman said " for if I had it, then you would bow before me and call me Lord." Lord, not Master, which I think is different. Perhaps it only meant "you would show me more respect than you do now".

But if "Lord" in this sentence indeed equals "Master", it becomes even more interesting. We know from Letter #246, that even with the One Ring, Saruman wouldn't become the Master of the Nazgul, because they were fully subservient to the Nine Rings which Sauron held, not the One. Sauron would always have primary control over the nazgul, while Saruman would only have secondary control.
The question is: did Saruman realize it? Perhaps he didn't. Perhaps he had no idea about Sauron's safety precautions regarding the Nine and deluded into thinking that getting the One would bring the nazgul to his side?

There is another piece of evidence that would confirm this theory. Gandalf said at the Council: " The Nine the Nazgûl keep" (the quote that gives everyone a lot of headache when the Nine Rings are discussed, as it contradicts all the other quotes). Now, most of Gandalf's information on the Ring-lore came from Saruman. Perhaps Gandal's words at the Council reflected Saruman's own mistake?

Then the conversation at the Gates becomes somewhat funny. Saruman tries to impress the nazgul and, due to his magic Voice, almost succeeds. The nazgul depart somewhat dazed. Then half a mile away, the WK asks "Do you recall, Khamul, what did the wizard say? Didn't he mention he wanted to get the Ring and become our Master?"
"I think so, milord"
"He-he, the old white fool can always hope…" General laugh.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]I won't think the WK would watch out for Saruman that much, after all, as soon as he learned about Saruman's not-full loyalty (from that traveling Southerner, or Gríma, or whichever version we take as the "real" one) and at the same time he learned about where exactly the Shire is (from the same person). Mainly, I can't imagine him sending even one or two Nazgul to bother looking for Saruman, he wanted to get Baggins as soon as possible, and he did not have as many men (or wraiths) to spare.

Then the nazgul knew that Saruman was being watched by Sauron via the Palantir. Also don't forget, immediately after the nazgul left the Gates, Saruman sent out his wolves, to prevent the nazgul from lingering nearby.

Yet, I think the WK's decision to personally guard the Greenway - the approaches to Bree from the direction of Isengard - was partly caused by his knowledge of Saruman's betrayal. Saruman could have come in person after all - or release Gandalf (which is almost what had happened) or even make peace with him. In the latter case, the two Maiar could have come together to fight the nazgul. That would have been hard to counter.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]Anyway - that was about why did not Saruman do anything AFTER the Riders came. But what about the time since Saruman imprisoned Gandalf till the time when they came?

Saruman was trying, to the very last moment, to "wear the mask of friendship, until he was ready". Had it not been for Gandalf escaping, Elrond would have had no real idea that Saruman is a traitor; the less any of the others, who learned that only on the Council, because of Gandalf.

Still I don't see how coming to the Shire, leaving Gandalf locked up in a stout cell, or even better killed, could reveal Saruman's treachery to the Wise. Radagast told him that the Nazgul were searching for the Shire. Saruman proposed his help to Gandalf and invited him to Orthanc. But the Grey never came - perished on the way most likely - so Saruman really had no other option than to go to the Shire himself. Had he failed to find the Ring, that would be a story to tell to the White Council. And to Sauron he could tell that he was seeking the One to bring it to him. That would be needed in the case of failure. But if he succeeded, he would need to tell no tales to anyone, only give orders. Or so he must have thought.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

I think it was in Sauron's nature not to trust anyone completely, and if he had no choice but to trust somebody, then he trusted the nazgul, just because he virtually had their very souls in his hands (via the Nine Rings he held).

Indeed, of course he did not and I am aware of it all the time. It is just as you say:

I think Sauron realized that Saruman, given the opportunity, would definitely try to grab the Ring. But then again, Sauron was sure that ANYONE would desire to do the same: the Wise, Elves, Men, Orcs, Trolls - no one could be trusted in this matter. So Sauron couldn't really hold Saruman's lust for the Ring against him. It was simply unavoidable.

But still, there was this "for the time being, I trust you" thing. Simply, an alliance between the two of them, the "trust" for the time being, as long as they are useful for each other.

But in any case, I still do not believe that Saruman said anything awkward by the gate. He was maybe exaggerating, or simplifying things, it was, from my point of view, rather a "metaphorical figure" from him. Simply put: I do not believe Saruman meant to say anything, not even that he slipped anything about his real intentions with the Ring; and at the same time, I do not believe that the WK ever thought of it as something like that. Simply, a normal dialogue.

And that would also explain the seemingly illogical thing about the Ringwraith calling him "Lord", even though they still should not obey him even if he had the Ring: it was all just a figure of speech, an exaggeration, a way to (as I read it!) emphasise the point: "No, as of course you must realise yourselves, I don't have it" - and that, between the lines, also points to that of course I have no idea at all where it may be! A very clever way to put it to the listener, like saying: "If you think I have it, you must disbelieve your own senses! What do your feelings say? Nothing? So you see for yourselves, with your own innermost evidence which cannot be fooled, that I have nothing in common with the Ring at all. I am an innocent dove, never even heard about any Ring, la-la-laa..."

Then the conversation at the Gates becomes somewhat funny. Saruman tries to impress the nazgul and, due to his magic Voice, almost succeeds. The nazgul depart somewhat dazed. Then half a mile away, the WK asks "Do you recall, Khamul, what did the wizard say? Didn't he mention he wanted to get the Ring and become our Master?"
"I think so, milord"
"He-he, the old white fool can always hope…" General laugh.

But nay, I really don't think Saruman only "almost" succeeded. I believe he succeeded, at least for the time being; maybe upon returning to Sauron, the guy might have started to think "ha, I knew it - he is already cheating me"; but until the Nazgul learned that Saruman lied to them from that traveling agent, they really believed, in my opinion, that Saruman is a loyal ally - at least as loyal as the bad guys are to each other.

Yet, I think the WK's decision to personally guard the Greenway - the approaches to Bree from the direction of Isengard - was partly caused by his knowledge of Saruman's betrayal. Saruman could have come in person after all - or release Gandalf (which is almost what had happened) or even make peace with him. In the latter case, the two Maiar could have come together to fight the nazgul. That would have been hard to counter.

Yes, I believe so too. (That was a result of WK learning of Saruman's treachery from that agent.)

Still I don't see how coming to the Shire, leaving Gandalf locked up in a stout cell, or even better killed, could reveal Saruman's treachery to the Wise. Radagast told him that the Nazgul were searching for the Shire. Saruman proposed his help to Gandalf and invited him to Orthanc. But the Grey never came - perished on the way most likely - so Saruman really had no other option than to go to the Shire himself. Had he failed to find the Ring, that would be a story to tell to the White Council. And to Sauron he could tell that he was seeking the One to bring it to him. That would be needed in the case of failure. But if he succeeded, he would need to tell no tales to anyone, only give orders. Or so he must have thought.

I see the main problem in Saruman personally leaving Orthanc for such a long trip. And there were too many risks involved. Saruman, had it not been for the encounter of the Ringwraith with that servant of his, would have remained looking like the loyal servant who has no idea where the Shire is. Surely Sauron would not have believed him that he was looking for the Ring for Sauron. Maybe if Saruman got a direct order from Sauron to look for the Ring, but that was the Nine's job. And in this virtual scenario, if Saruman "learned" from Gandalf where the Ring is, he should have immediately reported that to the Palantír, before leaving on his own. So, at least when it comes to telling Sauron, no real excuse for him. And with the Free Peoples, he could surely get suspected. After all, Gandalf surely won't just disappear along the road - that would be awkward by itself (unless he met the Nine themselves). Then, at least some people would know that Gandalf headed to Isengard - now how comes he disappeared just on this particular way? And what more (and mainly), how did Saruman know where to look for the Ring, when Gandalf never arrived to Orthanc at all? Where did Saruman learn about "the Shire", or even about "Baggins" having anything to do with the Ring? No, really, that won't work. (And at least for Galadriel, Saruman would be definitely unmasked at this moment - she never trusted him.)

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But still, there was this "for the time being, I trust you" thing. Simply, an alliance between the two of them, the "trust" for the time being, as long as they are useful for each other.

Indeed. Sauron trusted Saruman to bind the Rohan army, preventing it from helping Gondor, he trusted him to spy on the Wise etc. But I think Sauron realized that this alliance would not hold if the Ring were in the balance. That's why he wasn't really angry at Saruman at the end of 3018, when he finally learned of his treachery from the nazgul upon their return. Or at least he decided to keep quiet about it, still upholding the useful alliance as long as it suited him.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But in any case, I still do not believe that Saruman said anything awkward by the gate. He was maybe exaggerating, or simplifying things, it was, from my point of view, rather a "metaphorical figure" from him. Simply put: I do not believe Saruman meant to say anything, not even that he slipped anything about his real intentions with the Ring; and at the same time, I do not believe that the WK ever thought of it as something like that. Simply, a normal dialogue.

I have to disagree. Saruman should have realized, that even if at the moment his Voice™ worked with the nazgull, later, if something slipped, his "innocent" words (uttered in front of Nine witnesses) would be remembered and used as evidence against him. And it was exactly what happened later. It was a pretty dangerous path he was threading.

On a tangent, the more I think about this Isengard scene, the less "normal" it seems to me.

First of all: why did Sauron send the Nine to Saruman if he was supposed to have direct contact with him via the Palantir? Sauron believed that Saruman knew the location of the Shire, so why not ask the Wizard directly? The explanation must be that by September 3018 Saruman had not used the Palantir for a long time. It seems that, after his failure to turn Gandalf to his side, he sat there in fear and doubt and more and more became inclined to drop everything, and to repent. That's why maybe he didn't go to the Shire. He almost repented, when the nazgul actually came (UT), but it was too late, Gandalf was gone.

Second. OK Sauron sends his most trusted servants to his faithful ally Saruman. Instead of showing warm welcome: blowing trumpets, sending forth uruks with flowers etc., Saruman churlishly keeps the Nine at the gates and uses the intercom. Well, maybe the nazgul themselves were not so looking forward to feather beds of Isengard, but their horses certainly could use some good fodder and grooming. Such a rude reception was really unseemly when dealing with the most high-ranking Mordor officials. - Again, I think it reflected Saruman's current state of mind: he most regretted his hasty alliance with Mordor, hoped for reconciliation with Gandalf and didn't want to broadcast his alliance with Mordor before the eyes of Gandalf.

Third. Why did Saruman started speaking about the Ring at all? Nobody asked him about it, only about the Shire. Why reveal his knowledge of the connection? The wish to impress the nazgul with his wisdom seems a bit childish. Perhaps his words (the first part of the conversation in The Hunt version C) were meant more for Gandalf than for the WK? The message to the Grey wizard would be "see I know where the Ring is, I know where the Shire is, but I tell the nazgul nothing. I can still be trusted."

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I see the main problem in Saruman personally leaving Orthanc for such a long trip. And there were too many risks involved. [...]
And with the Free Peoples, he could surely get suspected. After all, Gandalf surely won't just disappear along the road - that would be awkward by itself (unless he met the Nine themselves). Then, at least some people would know that Gandalf headed to Isengard - now how comes he disappeared just on this particular way? And what more (and mainly), how did Saruman know where to look for the Ring, when Gandalf never arrived to Orthanc at all? Where did Saruman learn about "the Shire", or even about "Baggins" having anything to do with the Ring? No, really, that won't work. (And at least for Galadriel, Saruman would be definitely unmasked at this moment - she never trusted him.)

Perhaps you are right. It was a huge risk - and Saruman was too chicken-hearted to take it.

Moreover, there was another factor, not yet discussed in this thread - Faramir's and Boromir's dream.

[Saruman] believed also (knowing of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission) that the Ring had gone and was already on the way on Rivendell. UT, Hunt for the Ring, version C

Now the oracular dream made it clear that the Ring would eventually find its way to Rivendell:
Saruman was a Maia, he had an inside knowledge of the Music, he knew who had likely sent the dream. Saruman had reasons to believe that whatever he may do, he would be unable to change what had been ordained. So-why even try?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Indeed. Sauron trusted Saruman to bind the Rohan army, preventing it from helping Gondor, he trusted him to spy on the Wise etc. But I think Sauron realized that this alliance would not hold if the Ring were in the balance. That's why he wasn't really angry at Saruman at the end of 3018, when he finally learned of his treachery from the nazgul upon their return. Or at least he decided to keep quiet about it, still upholding the useful alliance as long as it suited him.

Yes, truly. And still, it was so that it could have been Sauron's turn now to "pretend", i.e. he could make Saruman think that he doesn't know about his treachery, which could have helped him, too. The Uruk-hai and the Palantír solved it for Sauron: it is funny, now thinking of it, that Saruman most likely had no contact with Sauron since the Nazgul came to Isengard; and their servants last contacted under captains Uglúk and Grishnákh.

I have to disagree. Saruman should have realized, that even if at the moment his Voice™ worked with the nazgull, later, if something slipped, his "innocent" words (uttered in front of Nine witnesses) would be remembered and used as evidence against him. And it was exactly what happened later. It was a pretty dangerous path he was threading.

Well, we really differ on that one, because I really think his words were completely innocent and there was nothing suspicious about them at all, neither when the Voice was in effect, nor later. However, another thing is, that he says these "Lord" things and "I know what you seek" only in version A, where the Nazgul are coming already with a bit of hostile attitude and Sauron at least no longer trusts (or rather "trusts" - maybe I should say: tolerates) Saruman as much.

First of all: why did Sauron send the Nine to Saruman if he was supposed to have direct contact with him via the Palantir? Sauron believed that Saruman knew the location of the Shire, so why not ask the Wizard directly? The explanation must be that by September 3018 Saruman had not used the Palantir for a long time.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.) The only possibility is that Saruman told Sauron himself - via Palantír (or he did not tell him, but Sauron could somehow guess that from his words, "read his mind" - again, it says in the UT that in the late times, he used to do that). But from A it looks like that Nazgul were sent to Isengard more like enforcers, possibly so that Saruman would hand over Gandalf to them and they'll handle him themselves, or to get the information out of Saruman - only they later realised they couldn't do that, because Isengard was too heavily fortified and they could not stand up against Saruman on this unfair ground.

Third. Why did Saruman started speaking about the Ring at all? Nobody asked him about it, only about the Shire. Why reveal his knowledge of the connection? The wish to impress the nazgul with his wisdom seems a bit childish. Perhaps his words (the first part of the conversation in The Hunt version C) were meant more for Gandalf than for the WK? The message to the Grey wizard would be "see I know where the Ring is, I know where the Shire is, but I tell the nazgul nothing. I can still be trusted."

Now that is a very interesting and appealing idea, I actually like that! In any case, this moment never ceased to interest me - it may be possibly the moment I love the most in all books. Or certainly one of these most affecting me.

Now the oracular dream made it clear that the Ring would eventually find its way to Rivendell:
Saruman was a Maia, he had an inside knowledge of the Music, he knew who had likely sent the dream. Saruman had reasons to believe that whatever he may do, he would be unable to change what had been ordained. So-why even try?

Well, it was a very long, long time since he went "into flesh". Imagine a human after two thousand years. I think you will have quite a big problem with still believing to what you saw such a long time ago, without any renewing of your contact with it. Saruman had seen kingdoms rise and fall, I am pretty certain he also saw some things which shook his worldview. Isn't Sauron stronger after all, and those beyond the Sea won't reach here to stop him, and in this land here, nobody can? And still, he could not be sure the prophecy is a real prophecy which has any value - it could as well be just some idle talk - or perhaps it may not come true? And the prophecy itself didn't even say much about what is going to happen with the Ring. So, if Saruman believed it, okay, let's say he would accept he cannot change what had been ordained... which is... what? That the doom is near? Right, doom of what? The doom of Middle-Earth is certainly at hand, as now everybody's chasing after the Ring and the coming weeks or months will show everything. And that "the Halfling forth shall stand"? Yes, indeed: it already happened, just as Saruman learned - the Halflings had the Ring all the time! So, really, not much new, besides the fact that seemingly Isildur's heir shall return. But that still does not have to mean victory for the West.

[The Mouth of Sauron]

Why didn't Saruman (and indeed Sauron too) not just use their Palantir to search for the Ring ?

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by The Mouth of Sauron

Why didn't Saruman (and indeed Sauron too) not just use their Palantir to search for the Ring ?

It is dark in hobbit pocketses - a palantir doesn't show things in the dark. And from afar it looks like quite an ordinary ring anyway. Lots of people have golden rings. It is like looking for a particular black cat from a satellite.

Legate - loved your post. Will reply later.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

There are two puzzles here, and I'm not sure either can be answered, except by observing of course that in The Hunt For the Ring Tolkien was trying to backwrite history for the story he wrote at a time he had no idea who or what the Black Riders were, or even what had become of Gandalf!

1). My memory may be failing, but I don't recall that Radagast ever told Saruman the Nine were seeking 'the Shire.' What Saruman knew in June was that the BR were searching the Vales of Anduin, which of course he was content to let them waste their time doing.

2) On the other hand, it's amazing that over the course of sixty years Saruman and his intelligence network had never heard the tale of "Mad Baggins," and put two and two together.

[Gordis]

Legate, I still own you a reply to your post.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And still, it was so that it could have been Sauron's turn now to "pretend", i.e. he could make Saruman think that he doesn't know about his treachery, which could have helped him, too. The Uruk-hai and the Palantír solved it for Sauron: it is funny, now thinking of it, that Saruman most likely had no contact with Sauron since the Nazgul came to Isengard; and their servants last contacted under captains Uglúk and Grishnákh.

Yes, but likely the Nazgul who was sent to Isengard after the incident of Dol Baran demanded and obtained some explanations. I am not sure Sauron was satisfied though: he left Saruman in peace for a time, but at some point he did promise Isengard to The Mouth of Sauron.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

However, another thing is, that he says these "Lord" things and "I know what you seek" only in version A, where the Nazgul are coming already with a bit of hostile attitude and Sauron at least no longer trusts (or rather "trusts" - maybe I should say: tolerates) Saruman as much.

I think in both cases the nazgul came in low spirits and already angry, as they had just got a reprimand from Sauron.
Unfortunately, only the version A is given in full. In B the talk is much the same, Christopher says, in C it is altered - the first part is not reported word for word, but Saruman in fear admits he has Gandalf within. Then he makes the nazgul wait till he climbs the Tower, sees G. gone, decends to the Gate, and

he lied, saying that he had made Gandalf confess.[...]"I will report this myself to the Lord of Barad-dûr," he said loftily, "to whom I speak from afar on great matters that concern us. But all that you need to know on the mission that he has given you is where 'the Shire' lies. Tim says Mithrandir, is northwest from here some six hundred miles, on the borders of the seaward Elvish country. [...] You must cross Isen by the Fords, and then rounding the Mountains' end make for Tharbad upon Greyflood. Go with speed, and I will report to your Master that you have done so." version C

That is much better than in A, no doubt. No slips of the tongue.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.)

Spies, I think - most likely among the uruks (or maybe Dunlendings). Saruman's uruks ultimately came from Mordor, so it was easy to plant a couple spies among them. Sauron had spies in Minas Tirith it seems - that's how he learned of the dream Faramir and Boromir had. Sauron had informers even in Shagrat's band:

`Sh, Gorbag!' Shagrat's voice was lowered. 'The [Top Ones ] got eyes and ears everywhere; some among my lot, as like as not.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In any case, this moment never ceased to interest me - it may be possibly the moment I love the most in all books. Or certainly one of these most affecting me.

I share your love for "the Hunt" and other Unfinished Tales. Such a shame "the Hunt" manuscripts are not published in full! I think, I like it so much because it is written much more realistically than the main narrative of LOTR. Here we learn of the motivations behind the actions of the good and the bad characters, of spies and traitors, of doubts and some unsavory decisions of the Wise.
The scenes with the nazgul before the Gates of Isengard and the questioning of Grima are very compelling and powerful. Pity we see no interaction between bad guys in LOTR (except between orcs, like the talk between Gorbag and Shagrat which I love as well).

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And the prophecy itself didn't even say much about what is going to happen with the Ring. So, if Saruman believed it, okay, let's say he would accept he cannot change what had been ordained... which is... what? That the doom is near? Right, doom of what? The doom of Middle-Earth is certainly at hand, as now everybody's chasing after the Ring and the coming weeks or months will show everything. And that "the Halfling forth shall stand"? Yes, indeed: it already happened, just as Saruman learned - the Halflings had the Ring all the time! So, really, not much new, besides the fact that seemingly Isildur's heir shall return. But that still does not have to mean victory for the West.

The most interesting line, IMO, was "There [in Imladris] shall be shown a token that Doom is near at hand." The token was likely the Ring, because the next line speaks about "Isildur's bane". Thus the Ring was ordained to come to Rivendell.
If Saruman believed the prophecy, he would know it was useless to try to prevent it. Sauron also knew this prophecy, but tried to stop the Ring nonetheless.
But the prophecy speaks not of further events. After Imladris, Saruman's hands were free - and he acted.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.)

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

That doesn't of course eliminate the possibility of spies.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).
"

That Sauron sure was a trusting fella! But then we see that as late as Dol Baran he actually assumed Saruman would simply hand over the Ringbearer on demand. Wise fool.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Do you really believe that Sauron was not smart enough to figure out the meaning of "Isildur's Bane" all on his own?

Gandalf: ‘Yes, alas! through [Gollum] the Enemy has learned that the One has been found again. He knows where Isildur fell. He knows where Gollum found his ring. He knows that it is a Great Ring, for it gave long life. He knows that it is not one of the Three, for they have never been lost, and they endure no evil. He knows that it is not one of the Seven, or the Nine, for they are accounted for. He knows that it is the One. - The Shadow of the Past

The only reason why Boromir and Faramir haven't figured it out as well, was that in Gondor they didn't know that Isildur took the Ring from Sauron. Sauron himself knew it fairly well. And he knew how Isildur fell. So the solution was easy.

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

Ha-ha, that is brilliant. Fool I was not to think about it myself.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).

Yes, it is baffling. This part hardly agrees with the other texts of "the Hunt". The very facts that Sauron had sent only 40 uruks to Saruman's 80 and also had forbidden the nazgul (who was near Amon Hen) to cross Anduin don't make sense to me at all. What harm could there have been to Mordor's secrecy if one starry night the nazgul landed his beast in front of Ugluk's band and kindly asked them to please turn eastwards?