Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[littlemanpoet]

I can think of two reasons for the differences between Sauron and Saruman.

1) Sauron was a greater Ainu and was therefore more powerful in his skills, spells, and personal presence.

2) Sauron fell early and had long ages of being wholly evil. Saruman had been good until perhaps the last 500 years of the Third Age; also, Tolkien depicts him at his "unstaffing" and at his death, as being at war with himself. When there's a civil war in any nation, that nation is far weaker than when unified. The same goes for people.

However, one can distinguish between the listeners of the two. Who was taken in by Sauron, and who not? Same question for Saruman?

One might suspect that Frodo would have been taken in by Saruman at the beginning, but he grew so much that he could see through Saruman in the end. The Eorlingas of Rohan were snowed by him. Theoden had to fight with a will to get his mind cleared enough to speak past the subtle lies, even in the face of recent events! Gimli is not fooled, which I find interesting and very satisfying.

The Numenoreans were tending towards evil anyway, so it is no great surprise that they believed Sauron's lies. It is interesting however that the Elves of Eregion either could not, or refused to, see through his deceptions until it was too late; what does that say of them, as opposed to what it tells us of Sauron?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The Numenoreans were tending towards evil anyway, so it is no great surprise that they believed Sauron's lies. It is interesting however that the Elves of Eregion either could not, or refused to, see through his deceptions until it was too late; what does that say of them, as opposed to what it tells us of Sauron?

As Noldor, the Elves of Eregion were always more interested in the making of things, artifacts of power and so forth, than others of their kind. Sauron had a great deal of knowledge regarding such matters, and that alone was probably too attractive to many of them for them to turn Sauron away.
He also appealed to their desire for healing and the slowing of decay or change.
Being blinded by these 'character flaws', they didn't see Sauron's true nature and designs until he put on the One.
What this tells us of Sauron we already knew: he was an extremely cunning tactician well able to take advantage of an enemy's weaknesses.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I was not around when this discussion had started at first, but I have thought about this problem a bit and so, I will throw what I think about it into place.

First, I believe there is lot of truth on what various people have said here, but after looking at it from all angles, there was not yet a complex answer put forth. But first, let me reply to just a few things on this thread which are of the less important nature, before I move to the main topic itself:

Originally Posted by HerenIstarion

Another reason may have been psychology - Saruman has grown used to being the Lord of Orthank with all the benefits and comforts it brought along, being even afraid to an extent of venturing abroad alone (as opposed to Gandalf who's wandering about on his own most of the time). (cf. his heavy stress on 'destruction of his home' encountering the returning Lords of the West in Hollin and also remark made in conversation in Flotsam and Jetsam I believe about faded wizardry of Saruman's who has to rely on 'wheels and chains and slaves' now)

All right, just setting one thing right. Saruman actually was traveling a lot, he visited the Shire often before Gandalf started to suspect him and before the Rangers started to guard the Shire a bit more closely. In UT, the Istari - we read about Saruman visiting the Shire in disguise, secretly, however the hobbits noticed him mistook him for Gandalf. (That is also interesting thing to consider with these theories of how could Saruman impersonate Gandalf in the eyes of the Hobbits that were mentioned here, but I am not going to go deeper into that now.) We also read there (which is highly important for this discussion) that Saruman for long time suspected that Gandalf had some interest in the Shire besides just going there to chat with hobbits, however he did know what ("just of what use can these simpletons be? There must be something!"), and that was even at the time when Gandalf himself yet did not have any idea and he really had Shire just as a place to chat and rest. But the fact that Gandalf used to visit the Shire is also why Saruman started to put his spies there in the first place.

Another note, again, not very important for the main topic itself:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Remember, that it was Saruman who is credited for driving Sauron out of Dol Guldur, and it is Saruman who did it to prevent Sauron from searching The Gladden Fields. This wasn't a loyal, trusting friendship, and I very highly doubt Sauron and Saruman went to counseling together to work our their past.

But Sauron and Saruman actually had no real friendship like that when Saruman prevented Sauron from searching the Gladden Fields. Sauron & Saruman got into contact only around 3000 TA, when Saruman dared to use the Palantír. So, their "friendship" started only after all these events, and Sauron entered this relationship with the knowledge of all what Saruman did before - from all he did on behalf of the White Council to all he did just for his own search for the Ring. Of course Sauron was probably clever enough not to trust Saruman completely, but generally speaking, he could have trusted "all right, I believe you have cast aside all your previous allegiances to the Free Peoples, or your personal interests, and are working just for me now." That is the basic way it was, I believe.

And one more slight correction:

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself.

I don't believe Saruman said anything THAT suspicious. Certainly, he was not very careful in giving the information to the WK, although he tried hard to both NOT to tell everything to the WK (in hope to delay him yet), but at the same time to keep the mask of the loyal servant, so that the Nazgul won't report to their master that "this Saruman guy's loyalty does not seem as true, Master". (It's another thing, and not Saruman's fault, as we read from the Hunt for the Ring - at least taking into account just the dialogue with the Nazgul itself, Saruman made no real mistake there.) The main thing is: the WK did NOT suspect Saruman after talking to him by the Gate (as you can read), thus, even the fact that Saruman said "if I had it, you would call me Master" etc. had not in any way struck the WK. And this is what I mean to say: Why should it? I don't really see anything suspicous on that. Saruman was merely stating the FACTS. The WK indeed WOULD have bowed to Saruman, had he had the Ring. It was not meant to say: "If I had it, I will make you call me master", I believe it was simply meaning: "If I had it, IT will force you to call me master". Obviously. Saruman was a Maia, and merely having the Ring would make him a tremendous presence.

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed.

(...)

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Okay, this, for the most part, makes sense. And this is where I would start: this is the reason why Saruman did not go after the Ring AFTER the Ringwraith came to Isengard. Saruman probably believed that his lie would hold (foolish one, but that would go with the logic of the powerful being always foolish in M-E), and I won't think the WK would watch out for Saruman that much, after all, as soon as he learned about Saruman's not-full loyalty (from that traveling Southerner, or Gríma, or whichever version we take as the "real" one) and at the same time he learned about where exactly the Shire is (from the same person). Mainly, I can't imagine him sending even one or two Nazgul to bother looking for Saruman, he wanted to get Baggins as soon as possible, and he did not have as many men (or wraiths) to spare.

More importantly. Once the Nine left Isengard, Saruman could not hope much in reaching the Ring earlier than them. We read on many places how fast the Nine's steeds were (I believe there is something like that about Asfaloth, that not even the Nine can match his speed? Or certainly Shadowfax). That means, I don't think Saruman could have sent a messenger to his Shire agents (like Sackville-Bagginses [sic!]) who would reach it earlier than the Nine (who have already set out by the time Saruman could have instructed and sent anyone).

In any case, even with Saruman's messenger, there was this risk of him being intercepted by the Riders: he certainly could not send anybody out right after the Riders went. And mainly, he had other problems by that time - Gandalf had escaped, and what to do now...

(I believe Saruman might have - and likely did, as he would have liked to get at least some information, or have the chance to intercept the Ring himself - sent somebody later; indeed, it is well possible - and Gandalf, or was it Aragorn? thought that too - that this Southerner in Bree might have been in Saruman's service, or at least double-dealing with both the Riders and Saruman. But that was only later on, many days passed between the Riders coming to Isengard and the moment when the Hobbits came to Bree.)

Anyway - that was about why did not Saruman do anything AFTER the Riders came. But what about the time since Saruman imprisoned Gandalf till the time when they came?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think we should keep in mind that dangerous game Saruman was playing. He was not only deceiving Gandalf, and the rest of the Wise, into trusting him, but he was also trying to deceive Sauron. Saruman wanted to be the Ring Lord himself, he had to not only appeal to Sauron, but keep the trust of the "Wise." And when Elrond, hears of Saruman's betrayal, he is completely shocked (as was Gandalf).

Now this is one, and in my point of view the most important point. Saruman was trying, to the very last moment, to "wear the mask of friendship, until he was ready". Had it not been for Gandalf escaping, Elrond would have had no real idea that Saruman is a traitor; the less any of the others, who learned that only on the Council, because of Gandalf. (I just recalled Ibri's short story "Renascence", where this problematic is captured pretty well: Varda tells there to Gandalf that had he voiced any suspicions on Saruman earlier, many would not have believed him. This is exactly what would happen, I think, even in the best case, if Elrond started to suspect Saruman: without an "eye-witness" like Gandalf was, many would be reluctant to accept Saruman's treachery as fact. Imagine some Galdor from the Havens, who seemed to value Saruman a lot as an authority. Similarly, even in Rohan, thanks to Wormtongue, Saruman could have worked secretly and looked like an ally for a long time.)

And Saruman was trying to look like a friend to both sides. So, with Gandalf locked up, and presuming that Sauron does not know where exactly to look (his Nine were apparently searching in Anduin Vales, still far enough). Saruman was angry, like it was said here, he could not control his lust, which had kind of ruined a good chance for him to learn about the Ring's whereabouts, or he underestimated Gandalf, thinking him a fool who would give away the information, or betray the Free Peoples. But still, he could hope that Gandalf will break and tell him before the Riders find the Ring. Of course, it was playing with time, so Saruman did very likely mobilise his agents around the Shire. However, it was not as easy: the Shire had been protected by the Rangers for a long time and Saruman's agents could not come and go as freely as they used to in years long past.

And as the last, the reason for Saruman not to go for the Ring before imprisioning Gandalf: it has been, I believe, sort of solved before on this thread. Saruman really did not know where the Ring is, and when trying to keep the face of an ally, he did the best thing he could - invite and imprison Gandalf, it was really I believe the most clever way he could. He heard (as Radagast told to Gandalf) that the Riders are out and asking about the land of "the Shire". This is, I believe, the first time Saruman ever thought of the Shire in connection to the Ring. You can imagine him: "What? The NINE??? Asking for the SHIRE? Wait - oh NO! WHAT AND IDIOT I WAS!" - and he immediately came up with a plan, and called Radagast to bring Gandalf...

[BGreg]

Yeah, I think you pretty much covered the answer with that

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by BGreg

Yeah, I think you pretty much covered the answer with that

You have never seen my first post ever, have you (No, it was shorter... but it was the first... )

[Gordis]

Great that you have found time to participate in the discussion, Legate.
First my comments on the minor points from the beginning of your post

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]Of course Sauron was probably clever enough not to trust Saruman completely, but generally speaking, he could have trusted "all right, I believe you have cast aside all your previous allegiances to the Free Peoples, or your personal interests, and are working just for me now." That is the basic way it was, I believe.

I think it was in Sauron's nature not to trust anyone completely, and if he had no choice but to trust somebody, then he trusted the nazgul, just because he virtually had their very souls in his hands (via the Nine Rings he held).

With Saruman he had nothing of this kind of safety precautions. I think Sauron realized that Saruman, given the opportunity, would definitely try to grab the Ring. But then again, Sauron was sure that ANYONE would desire to do the same: the Wise, Elves, Men, Orcs, Trolls - no one could be trusted in this matter. So Sauron couldn't really hold Saruman's lust for the Ring against him. It was simply unavoidable.

Perhaps the Witch-King reasoned this way as well, thus he was not shocked when Saruman said: "And if I knew where this thing was hid, I should not be here, but long gone before you to take it." It was the most damning thing of what he said, but it simply proved his desire for the Ring, which was a given anyway.

Another thing was to learn that Saruman had acted upon his desire, fooling Sauron about the location of the Shire. It was damning, but it also had to be expected.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]The main thing is: the WK did NOT suspect Saruman after talking to him by the Gate (as you can read), thus, even the fact that Saruman said "if I had it, you would call me Master" etc. had not in any way struck the WK. And this is what I mean to say: Why should it? I don't really see anything suspicous on that. Saruman was merely stating the FACTS. The WK indeed WOULD have bowed to Saruman, had he had the Ring. It was not meant to say: "If I had it, I will make you call me master", I believe it was simply meaning: "If I had it, IT will force you to call me master". Obviously. Saruman was a Maia, and merely having the Ring would make him a tremendous presence.

Actually, Saruman said " for if I had it, then you would bow before me and call me Lord." Lord, not Master, which I think is different. Perhaps it only meant "you would show me more respect than you do now".

But if "Lord" in this sentence indeed equals "Master", it becomes even more interesting. We know from Letter #246, that even with the One Ring, Saruman wouldn't become the Master of the Nazgul, because they were fully subservient to the Nine Rings which Sauron held, not the One. Sauron would always have primary control over the nazgul, while Saruman would only have secondary control.
The question is: did Saruman realize it? Perhaps he didn't. Perhaps he had no idea about Sauron's safety precautions regarding the Nine and deluded into thinking that getting the One would bring the nazgul to his side?

There is another piece of evidence that would confirm this theory. Gandalf said at the Council: " The Nine the Nazgûl keep" (the quote that gives everyone a lot of headache when the Nine Rings are discussed, as it contradicts all the other quotes). Now, most of Gandalf's information on the Ring-lore came from Saruman. Perhaps Gandal's words at the Council reflected Saruman's own mistake?

Then the conversation at the Gates becomes somewhat funny. Saruman tries to impress the nazgul and, due to his magic Voice, almost succeeds. The nazgul depart somewhat dazed. Then half a mile away, the WK asks "Do you recall, Khamul, what did the wizard say? Didn't he mention he wanted to get the Ring and become our Master?"
"I think so, milord"
"He-he, the old white fool can always hope…" General laugh.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]I won't think the WK would watch out for Saruman that much, after all, as soon as he learned about Saruman's not-full loyalty (from that traveling Southerner, or Gríma, or whichever version we take as the "real" one) and at the same time he learned about where exactly the Shire is (from the same person). Mainly, I can't imagine him sending even one or two Nazgul to bother looking for Saruman, he wanted to get Baggins as soon as possible, and he did not have as many men (or wraiths) to spare.

Then the nazgul knew that Saruman was being watched by Sauron via the Palantir. Also don't forget, immediately after the nazgul left the Gates, Saruman sent out his wolves, to prevent the nazgul from lingering nearby.

Yet, I think the WK's decision to personally guard the Greenway - the approaches to Bree from the direction of Isengard - was partly caused by his knowledge of Saruman's betrayal. Saruman could have come in person after all - or release Gandalf (which is almost what had happened) or even make peace with him. In the latter case, the two Maiar could have come together to fight the nazgul. That would have been hard to counter.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

]Anyway - that was about why did not Saruman do anything AFTER the Riders came. But what about the time since Saruman imprisoned Gandalf till the time when they came?

Saruman was trying, to the very last moment, to "wear the mask of friendship, until he was ready". Had it not been for Gandalf escaping, Elrond would have had no real idea that Saruman is a traitor; the less any of the others, who learned that only on the Council, because of Gandalf.

Still I don't see how coming to the Shire, leaving Gandalf locked up in a stout cell, or even better killed, could reveal Saruman's treachery to the Wise. Radagast told him that the Nazgul were searching for the Shire. Saruman proposed his help to Gandalf and invited him to Orthanc. But the Grey never came - perished on the way most likely - so Saruman really had no other option than to go to the Shire himself. Had he failed to find the Ring, that would be a story to tell to the White Council. And to Sauron he could tell that he was seeking the One to bring it to him. That would be needed in the case of failure. But if he succeeded, he would need to tell no tales to anyone, only give orders. Or so he must have thought.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

I think it was in Sauron's nature not to trust anyone completely, and if he had no choice but to trust somebody, then he trusted the nazgul, just because he virtually had their very souls in his hands (via the Nine Rings he held).

Indeed, of course he did not and I am aware of it all the time. It is just as you say:

I think Sauron realized that Saruman, given the opportunity, would definitely try to grab the Ring. But then again, Sauron was sure that ANYONE would desire to do the same: the Wise, Elves, Men, Orcs, Trolls - no one could be trusted in this matter. So Sauron couldn't really hold Saruman's lust for the Ring against him. It was simply unavoidable.

But still, there was this "for the time being, I trust you" thing. Simply, an alliance between the two of them, the "trust" for the time being, as long as they are useful for each other.

But in any case, I still do not believe that Saruman said anything awkward by the gate. He was maybe exaggerating, or simplifying things, it was, from my point of view, rather a "metaphorical figure" from him. Simply put: I do not believe Saruman meant to say anything, not even that he slipped anything about his real intentions with the Ring; and at the same time, I do not believe that the WK ever thought of it as something like that. Simply, a normal dialogue.

And that would also explain the seemingly illogical thing about the Ringwraith calling him "Lord", even though they still should not obey him even if he had the Ring: it was all just a figure of speech, an exaggeration, a way to (as I read it!) emphasise the point: "No, as of course you must realise yourselves, I don't have it" - and that, between the lines, also points to that of course I have no idea at all where it may be! A very clever way to put it to the listener, like saying: "If you think I have it, you must disbelieve your own senses! What do your feelings say? Nothing? So you see for yourselves, with your own innermost evidence which cannot be fooled, that I have nothing in common with the Ring at all. I am an innocent dove, never even heard about any Ring, la-la-laa..."

Then the conversation at the Gates becomes somewhat funny. Saruman tries to impress the nazgul and, due to his magic Voice, almost succeeds. The nazgul depart somewhat dazed. Then half a mile away, the WK asks "Do you recall, Khamul, what did the wizard say? Didn't he mention he wanted to get the Ring and become our Master?"
"I think so, milord"
"He-he, the old white fool can always hope…" General laugh.

But nay, I really don't think Saruman only "almost" succeeded. I believe he succeeded, at least for the time being; maybe upon returning to Sauron, the guy might have started to think "ha, I knew it - he is already cheating me"; but until the Nazgul learned that Saruman lied to them from that traveling agent, they really believed, in my opinion, that Saruman is a loyal ally - at least as loyal as the bad guys are to each other.

Yet, I think the WK's decision to personally guard the Greenway - the approaches to Bree from the direction of Isengard - was partly caused by his knowledge of Saruman's betrayal. Saruman could have come in person after all - or release Gandalf (which is almost what had happened) or even make peace with him. In the latter case, the two Maiar could have come together to fight the nazgul. That would have been hard to counter.

Yes, I believe so too. (That was a result of WK learning of Saruman's treachery from that agent.)

Still I don't see how coming to the Shire, leaving Gandalf locked up in a stout cell, or even better killed, could reveal Saruman's treachery to the Wise. Radagast told him that the Nazgul were searching for the Shire. Saruman proposed his help to Gandalf and invited him to Orthanc. But the Grey never came - perished on the way most likely - so Saruman really had no other option than to go to the Shire himself. Had he failed to find the Ring, that would be a story to tell to the White Council. And to Sauron he could tell that he was seeking the One to bring it to him. That would be needed in the case of failure. But if he succeeded, he would need to tell no tales to anyone, only give orders. Or so he must have thought.

I see the main problem in Saruman personally leaving Orthanc for such a long trip. And there were too many risks involved. Saruman, had it not been for the encounter of the Ringwraith with that servant of his, would have remained looking like the loyal servant who has no idea where the Shire is. Surely Sauron would not have believed him that he was looking for the Ring for Sauron. Maybe if Saruman got a direct order from Sauron to look for the Ring, but that was the Nine's job. And in this virtual scenario, if Saruman "learned" from Gandalf where the Ring is, he should have immediately reported that to the Palantír, before leaving on his own. So, at least when it comes to telling Sauron, no real excuse for him. And with the Free Peoples, he could surely get suspected. After all, Gandalf surely won't just disappear along the road - that would be awkward by itself (unless he met the Nine themselves). Then, at least some people would know that Gandalf headed to Isengard - now how comes he disappeared just on this particular way? And what more (and mainly), how did Saruman know where to look for the Ring, when Gandalf never arrived to Orthanc at all? Where did Saruman learn about "the Shire", or even about "Baggins" having anything to do with the Ring? No, really, that won't work. (And at least for Galadriel, Saruman would be definitely unmasked at this moment - she never trusted him.)

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But still, there was this "for the time being, I trust you" thing. Simply, an alliance between the two of them, the "trust" for the time being, as long as they are useful for each other.

Indeed. Sauron trusted Saruman to bind the Rohan army, preventing it from helping Gondor, he trusted him to spy on the Wise etc. But I think Sauron realized that this alliance would not hold if the Ring were in the balance. That's why he wasn't really angry at Saruman at the end of 3018, when he finally learned of his treachery from the nazgul upon their return. Or at least he decided to keep quiet about it, still upholding the useful alliance as long as it suited him.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But in any case, I still do not believe that Saruman said anything awkward by the gate. He was maybe exaggerating, or simplifying things, it was, from my point of view, rather a "metaphorical figure" from him. Simply put: I do not believe Saruman meant to say anything, not even that he slipped anything about his real intentions with the Ring; and at the same time, I do not believe that the WK ever thought of it as something like that. Simply, a normal dialogue.

I have to disagree. Saruman should have realized, that even if at the moment his Voice™ worked with the nazgull, later, if something slipped, his "innocent" words (uttered in front of Nine witnesses) would be remembered and used as evidence against him. And it was exactly what happened later. It was a pretty dangerous path he was threading.

On a tangent, the more I think about this Isengard scene, the less "normal" it seems to me.

First of all: why did Sauron send the Nine to Saruman if he was supposed to have direct contact with him via the Palantir? Sauron believed that Saruman knew the location of the Shire, so why not ask the Wizard directly? The explanation must be that by September 3018 Saruman had not used the Palantir for a long time. It seems that, after his failure to turn Gandalf to his side, he sat there in fear and doubt and more and more became inclined to drop everything, and to repent. That's why maybe he didn't go to the Shire. He almost repented, when the nazgul actually came (UT), but it was too late, Gandalf was gone.

Second. OK Sauron sends his most trusted servants to his faithful ally Saruman. Instead of showing warm welcome: blowing trumpets, sending forth uruks with flowers etc., Saruman churlishly keeps the Nine at the gates and uses the intercom. Well, maybe the nazgul themselves were not so looking forward to feather beds of Isengard, but their horses certainly could use some good fodder and grooming. Such a rude reception was really unseemly when dealing with the most high-ranking Mordor officials. - Again, I think it reflected Saruman's current state of mind: he most regretted his hasty alliance with Mordor, hoped for reconciliation with Gandalf and didn't want to broadcast his alliance with Mordor before the eyes of Gandalf.

Third. Why did Saruman started speaking about the Ring at all? Nobody asked him about it, only about the Shire. Why reveal his knowledge of the connection? The wish to impress the nazgul with his wisdom seems a bit childish. Perhaps his words (the first part of the conversation in The Hunt version C) were meant more for Gandalf than for the WK? The message to the Grey wizard would be "see I know where the Ring is, I know where the Shire is, but I tell the nazgul nothing. I can still be trusted."

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I see the main problem in Saruman personally leaving Orthanc for such a long trip. And there were too many risks involved. [...]
And with the Free Peoples, he could surely get suspected. After all, Gandalf surely won't just disappear along the road - that would be awkward by itself (unless he met the Nine themselves). Then, at least some people would know that Gandalf headed to Isengard - now how comes he disappeared just on this particular way? And what more (and mainly), how did Saruman know where to look for the Ring, when Gandalf never arrived to Orthanc at all? Where did Saruman learn about "the Shire", or even about "Baggins" having anything to do with the Ring? No, really, that won't work. (And at least for Galadriel, Saruman would be definitely unmasked at this moment - she never trusted him.)

Perhaps you are right. It was a huge risk - and Saruman was too chicken-hearted to take it.

Moreover, there was another factor, not yet discussed in this thread - Faramir's and Boromir's dream.

[Saruman] believed also (knowing of the oracular dream-words and of Boromir's mission) that the Ring had gone and was already on the way on Rivendell. UT, Hunt for the Ring, version C

Now the oracular dream made it clear that the Ring would eventually find its way to Rivendell:
Saruman was a Maia, he had an inside knowledge of the Music, he knew who had likely sent the dream. Saruman had reasons to believe that whatever he may do, he would be unable to change what had been ordained. So-why even try?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Indeed. Sauron trusted Saruman to bind the Rohan army, preventing it from helping Gondor, he trusted him to spy on the Wise etc. But I think Sauron realized that this alliance would not hold if the Ring were in the balance. That's why he wasn't really angry at Saruman at the end of 3018, when he finally learned of his treachery from the nazgul upon their return. Or at least he decided to keep quiet about it, still upholding the useful alliance as long as it suited him.

Yes, truly. And still, it was so that it could have been Sauron's turn now to "pretend", i.e. he could make Saruman think that he doesn't know about his treachery, which could have helped him, too. The Uruk-hai and the Palantír solved it for Sauron: it is funny, now thinking of it, that Saruman most likely had no contact with Sauron since the Nazgul came to Isengard; and their servants last contacted under captains Uglúk and Grishnákh.

I have to disagree. Saruman should have realized, that even if at the moment his Voice™ worked with the nazgull, later, if something slipped, his "innocent" words (uttered in front of Nine witnesses) would be remembered and used as evidence against him. And it was exactly what happened later. It was a pretty dangerous path he was threading.

Well, we really differ on that one, because I really think his words were completely innocent and there was nothing suspicious about them at all, neither when the Voice was in effect, nor later. However, another thing is, that he says these "Lord" things and "I know what you seek" only in version A, where the Nazgul are coming already with a bit of hostile attitude and Sauron at least no longer trusts (or rather "trusts" - maybe I should say: tolerates) Saruman as much.

First of all: why did Sauron send the Nine to Saruman if he was supposed to have direct contact with him via the Palantir? Sauron believed that Saruman knew the location of the Shire, so why not ask the Wizard directly? The explanation must be that by September 3018 Saruman had not used the Palantir for a long time.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.) The only possibility is that Saruman told Sauron himself - via Palantír (or he did not tell him, but Sauron could somehow guess that from his words, "read his mind" - again, it says in the UT that in the late times, he used to do that). But from A it looks like that Nazgul were sent to Isengard more like enforcers, possibly so that Saruman would hand over Gandalf to them and they'll handle him themselves, or to get the information out of Saruman - only they later realised they couldn't do that, because Isengard was too heavily fortified and they could not stand up against Saruman on this unfair ground.

Third. Why did Saruman started speaking about the Ring at all? Nobody asked him about it, only about the Shire. Why reveal his knowledge of the connection? The wish to impress the nazgul with his wisdom seems a bit childish. Perhaps his words (the first part of the conversation in The Hunt version C) were meant more for Gandalf than for the WK? The message to the Grey wizard would be "see I know where the Ring is, I know where the Shire is, but I tell the nazgul nothing. I can still be trusted."

Now that is a very interesting and appealing idea, I actually like that! In any case, this moment never ceased to interest me - it may be possibly the moment I love the most in all books. Or certainly one of these most affecting me.

Now the oracular dream made it clear that the Ring would eventually find its way to Rivendell:
Saruman was a Maia, he had an inside knowledge of the Music, he knew who had likely sent the dream. Saruman had reasons to believe that whatever he may do, he would be unable to change what had been ordained. So-why even try?

Well, it was a very long, long time since he went "into flesh". Imagine a human after two thousand years. I think you will have quite a big problem with still believing to what you saw such a long time ago, without any renewing of your contact with it. Saruman had seen kingdoms rise and fall, I am pretty certain he also saw some things which shook his worldview. Isn't Sauron stronger after all, and those beyond the Sea won't reach here to stop him, and in this land here, nobody can? And still, he could not be sure the prophecy is a real prophecy which has any value - it could as well be just some idle talk - or perhaps it may not come true? And the prophecy itself didn't even say much about what is going to happen with the Ring. So, if Saruman believed it, okay, let's say he would accept he cannot change what had been ordained... which is... what? That the doom is near? Right, doom of what? The doom of Middle-Earth is certainly at hand, as now everybody's chasing after the Ring and the coming weeks or months will show everything. And that "the Halfling forth shall stand"? Yes, indeed: it already happened, just as Saruman learned - the Halflings had the Ring all the time! So, really, not much new, besides the fact that seemingly Isildur's heir shall return. But that still does not have to mean victory for the West.