Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Yes, but likely the Nazgul who was sent to Isengard after the incident of Dol Baran demanded and obtained some explanations. I am not sure Sauron was satisfied though: he left Saruman in peace for a time, but at some point he did promise Isengard to The Mouth of Sauron.

Well, I think the Nazgul found just shut windows and flooded Isengard, the same as Gandalf did. Gandalf even says something like that, when riding with Pippin, I think - he says also that Sauron would crush Saruman now, but he cannot, Gondor and Rohan are between them. Sauron was not "satisfied" by any means, and the only reason why he left Saruman in peace was simply that he had to deal with his enemies fast. Even if Saruman had the Ring now, he could not attack him directly, until he could surround Orthanc by his armies.

That is much better than in A, no doubt. No slips of the tongue.

Yes, definitely.

Spies, I think - most likely among the uruks (or maybe Dunlendings). Saruman's uruks ultimately came from Mordor, so it was easy to plant a couple spies among them. Sauron had spies in Minas Tirith it seems - that's how he learned of the dream Faramir and Boromir had. Sauron had informers even in Shagrat's band:

Well yes, although it's a bit different having spies among your own servants and having spies in Orthanc, but it actually makes a lot of sense. Good idea. (Even though still I have to wonder, how did those spies communicate with Sauron. Okay, possibly they went [Orcs] let's say to Moria [Orcs] - where Sauron had, since some time, his own Orcs - and from there it was passed on; or to some other agents living in a cottage in Eastfold or such, who again passed the message on... meeting spies from the eastern riverbank every full moon or something like that... And Sauron had enough time to get this information.)

And as for the hypothesis of him seeing it with the Palantír, possible, but still, I am not sure how much accurately he could see with it - if there was not any "interference" because of the distance, or perhaps because of Saruman's art or something else?

I share your love for "the Hunt" and other Unfinished Tales. Such a shame "the Hunt" manuscripts are not published in full! I think, I like it so much because it is written much more realistically than the main narrative of LOTR. Here we learn of the motivations behind the actions of the good and the bad characters, of spies and traitors, of doubts and some unsavory decisions of the Wise.
The scenes with the nazgul before the Gates of Isengard and the questioning of Grima are very compelling and powerful. Pity we see no interaction between bad guys in LOTR (except between orcs, like the talk between Gorbag and Shagrat which I love as well).

Yes! Exactly. Actually, what I liked the most when I read the books for the first time was the Uruk-hai chapter and Uglúk & Grishnákh exchanges...

Yes, it is baffling. This part hardly agrees with the other texts of "the Hunt". The very facts that Sauron had sent only 40 uruks to Saruman's 80 and also had forbidden the nazgul (who was near Amon Hen) to cross Anduin don't make sense to me at all. What harm could there have been to Mordor's secrecy if one starry night the nazgul landed his beast in front of Ugluk's band and kindly asked them to please turn eastwards?

Well, I think Sauron was a bit naive in his power, I think - he believed that Saruman would not be able to withstand him, that he is a coward (in which he was right), and will hand over the prisoners and not dare to start anything in fear of Sauron's vengeance if he did. It was possibly also that "you send forty Orcs, I send forty Orcs, they will have a nice cooperation", just Saruman proved to be more daring here and sent twice more. (Or maybe it was "Let's meet by the river, each of us will send exactly twenty Orcs." Grishnákh comes with forty: "Guess what. Sauron lied." Uglúk: "Guess what. Saruman lied... more!" )
As for the Nazgul, it was some sort of "taboo" - Nazgul simply are NOT crossing the river, that's an order. You have to consider that we are looking at it from our a bit postmodern point of view, but it is something similar as when let's say in some ancient culture, people were banned to wear yellow colour. Sometimes, it did not even have any logical explanation why they should not do so, but it simply was the way it was done. You simply don't do that. Point.

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

In short, Isildur's possession of the Ring was known to very, very few: Elrond, the sole witness, and the survivors of the Gladden. Elrond's knowledge was circulated among the Wise, but is was always highly classified information.

But like Gordis says, Sauron knew and it was mentioned several times even in LotR (Shadows of the Past, Gandalf says something like "He knows where Isildur fell. He knows that it is a Ring..." etc.)

[Alfirin]

Isn't there a bit in the Unfinished Tales "The Tragedy of the Gladden Fields" or something like that. That more or less says expicitly that Saruman, not only knew where Isuldur fell but had in fact dug him up and scattered or destroyed his bones, and kept the varios things found with the body (like the orginal Gondorian crown)?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Alfirin

Isn't there a bit in the Unfinished Tales "The Tragedy of the Gladden Fields" or something like that. That more or less says expicitly that Saruman, not only knew where Isuldur fell but had in fact dug him up and scattered or destroyed his bones, and kept the varios things found with the body (like the orginal Gondorian crown)?

Yes, truly. Not the Gondorian crown, but the Elendilmir. It is not 100% sure that Saruman has found Isildur's body, but it is implied that very likely, he did.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

However, I would think that that occurred very late, after Saruman went entirely bad. As a member of the White Council Saruman naturally would have known about the Gladden Fields just as Gandalf did.

Numbers: The Chronology, which with luck will be published before long, casts a lot of light on Enemy movements. It's fairly clear that although on the one hand G and U were nominally 'cooperating', it's also the case that Sauron's original plan was to intercept the Company at Sarn Gebir, keeping Ugluk well out of it. After the ambush failed, G crossed the river but with only a small part of his Orcs, because crossing the River at the Rapids was not easy or quick, and because he couldn't leave the east bank of the River unguarded. In the meantime, Ugluk in the Emyn Muil had not only his Isengarders, but a substantial party of Mountain-orcs he had brought down from Moria. In other words G was substantially outnumbered, and thus was forced to feign cooperation and simply keep an eye on Ugluk, orders which were reinforced by the second Nazgul when he broke away for 'consultation.' (Note that G left Ugluk's party by himself; the forty Uruks he returned with were apparently new reinforcements. Whatever Orc-commandos he had crossed with apparently were killed at Amon Hen, or by Ugluk in the Emyn Muil. The forty new guys one would think were 'picked Orcs,' since their forced march/marathon to the eaves of Fangorn was the most astounding feat of any of the parties crossing Rohan: 100 miles in 35 hours.)

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I think Sauron was a bit naive in his power, I think - he believed that Saruman would not be able to withstand him, that he is a coward (in which he was right), and will hand over the prisoners and not dare to start anything in fear of Sauron's vengeance if he did. It was possibly also that "you send forty Orcs, I send forty Orcs, they will have a nice cooperation", just Saruman proved to be more daring here and sent twice more. (Or maybe it was "Let's meet by the river, each of us will send exactly twenty Orcs." Grishnákh comes with forty: "Guess what. Sauron lied." Uglúk: "Guess what. Saruman lied... more!" )

The idea of a bit naive Sauron doesn't appeal to me at all. If he appears "naive", than there must be something we are not aware of, IMO, something we have overlooked. And I like WCH's explanation a lot: that it was a forced unforeseen cooperation, not a pre-arranged one, otherwise Sauron would have seen to it to "lie more" than Saruman.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for the Nazgul, it was some sort of "taboo" - Nazgul simply are NOT crossing the river, that's an order. You have to consider that we are looking at it from our a bit postmodern point of view, but it is something similar as when let's say in some ancient culture, people were banned to wear yellow colour. Sometimes, it did not even have any logical explanation why they should not do so, but it simply was the way it was done. You simply don't do that. Point.

Indeed the nazgul have shown little initiative all through the "Hunt". For instance, Sauron sent them to search the Vales of Anduin, and so they did exactly as told, despite the fact that Khamul assured the WK that it would be pointless, and the WK believed him, but still they didn't turn back.

Yet the nazgul who got his steed killed by Legolas was flying over the West bank of Anduin, breaking the order in letter if not in spirit. And I have got a (perhaps erroneous?) impression that it was the nazgul who had ferried the orcs over the river on his Fell Beast and was supposed to ferry the survivors back:

'If we could cross the Great River, we might,' said another voice. 'But there are not enough of us to venture down to the bridges.'
'I came across,' said the evil voice. 'A winged Nazgûl awaits us northward on the east-bank.'
'Maybe, maybe! Then you'll fly off with our prisoners, and get all the pay and praise in Lugbúrz, and leave us to foot it as best we can through the Horse-country.

That's probably why the Mordor reinforcement numbered but 40 orcs. The tired and irritated Fell Beast must have eaten the forty-first and no one volunteered after that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

The idea of a bit naive Sauron doesn't appeal to me at all. If he appears "naive", than there must be something we are not aware of, IMO, something we have overlooked. And I like WCH's explanation a lot: that it was a forced unforeseen cooperation, not a pre-arranged one, otherwise Sauron would have seen to it to "lie more" than Saruman.

Yes, but we are in fact witnesses to moments when Saruman "lied more": merely the fact that the Hobbits were eventually taken to Isengard is one of these proofs. Saruman just managed to do that several times (and why not, he was really good in that). And Sauron was not maybe naive in all senses of the word, but he was known for miscalculating his enemies' intentions.

Indeed the nazgul have shown little initiative all through the "Hunt". For instance, Sauron sent them to search the Vales of Anduin, and so they did exactly as told, despite the fact that Khamul assured the WK that it would be pointless, and the WK believed him, but still they didn't turn back.

Yep, but do not forget that they would never disobey Sauron. And if he said "search the Vales", so they did, even if they knew there is nothing to find.

Yet the nazgul who got his steed killed by Legolas was flying over the West bank of Anduin, breaking the order in letter if not in spirit. And I have got a (perhaps erroneous?) impression that it was the nazgul who had ferried the orcs over the river on his Fell Beast and was supposed to ferry the survivors back:

I don't think he was flying over the western bank. It says that it was coming from the south (thus, unspecified riverbank) and fell down on the eastern one. Indeed, it was supposed to ferry the Orcs - or rather, the captives - but these were really special circumstances (the Ring was in play here, and how to get it fast to safety!), and the Nazgul most likely just landed on the western riverbank, unloaded its cargo and flew back - and all that at night. They would not dare to go further, or even dwell on the western side for long. (Not thinking about the fact that poor Nazgul pilot must have been pretty sick from flying over the water anyway.)

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but we are in fact witnesses to moments when Saruman "lied more": merely the fact that the Hobbits were eventually taken to Isengard is one of these proofs. Saruman just managed to do that several times (and why not, he was really good in that). And Sauron was not maybe naive in all senses of the word, but he was known for miscalculating his enemies' intentions.

Sauron only had difficulty to predict his enemies' schemes based on fool's hope = estel, but was quite good at deciphering the logical ones.

With Saruman he was at a disagvantage: Saruman likely had some suspicions as to the ultimate goal of the Quest - destruction of the Ring, while Sauron had none. Sauron likely saw the first move of the Felowship as relocation of the Ring from Rivendell to the closely guarded Lorien: from Elrond to Galadriel. But I doubt Sauron expected the Ring to leave Lorien and go South. He was caught at unawares by the happenings upon the Anduin, IMO. But I will have to reread the RC Scheme again...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yep, but do not forget that they would never disobey Sauron. And if he said "search the Vales", so they did, even if they knew there is nothing to find.

And surprisingly enough they got a wigging from Sauron for being obedient. Or was it for being slow?

BTW, Legate, I am quite curious how do you envision those "Messengers from Barad-Dur" conveying threats from Sauron to the nazgul? (a rather unsafe thing to do). Were they Orcs? Men? Birds? Or perhaps the Mouth himself had to go?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't think he was flying over the western bank. It says that it was coming from the south (thus, unspecified riverbank) and fell down on the eastern one.

But it swerved almost above the fellowship.

Suddenly the great bow of Lórien sang. Shrill went the arrow from the elven-string. Frodo looked up. Almost above him the winged shape swerved.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Indeed, it was supposed to ferry the Orcs - or rather, the captives - but these were really special circumstances (the Ring was in play here, and how to get it fast to safety!), and the Nazgul most likely just landed on the western riverbank, unloaded its cargo and flew back - and all that at night. They would not dare to go further, or even dwell on the western side for long. (Not thinking about the fact that poor Nazgul pilot must have been pretty sick from flying over the water anyway.)

Forty times there and back again across the Great River. Hmm... Poor hydrophobic nazgul!

[William Cloud Hicklin]

I think that's probably right. Sauron feared Galadriel perhaps more than any other foe, after all. More to the point, Sauron's original war strategy called for a much more substantial assault on Lorien; only after Aragorn revealed himself in the Palantir did Sauron redirect forces to the southern front* instead, being now convinced that the Ring was bound for Minas Tirith.

* The Chronology isn't specific about which forces, but it would seem likely that it would be the army that issued from the Morannon and in the event crossed at Cair Andros into Anorien. Had that army been joined to that of Dol Guldur, would Lorien have held? Who knows? In the event, the Ch. tells us, the army from DG was repulsed and retreated southward over Limlight, to be destroyed by the Ents in the Wold.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

only after Aragorn revealed himself in the Palantir did Sauron redirect forces to the southern front*

Did Sauron indeed relocate troops from Dol Guldur to Mordor? Is it in RC?
Why would he need it, I wonder - wasn't Mordor practically packed with orcs even after the Pelennor?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

No, not diverted from DG to Mordor; rather, the army from Udun and the Morannon, originally slated to march north and join with that of DG, was rerouted westward into northern Gondor. This was motivated (I speculate) by S's conviction that the Ring was in Gondor; but also by the military necessity of dealing with the Rohirrim, whom Saruman was supposed to have neutralized.

I don't know if this bit is in the excerpts from the Chronology ("Scheme") published in the RC, but it's in the complete document.

As to 'plenty of Orcs left'- well, Tolkien wasn't a general or a general-staff officer, but he spent enough time at war to be aware of a basic fact of armies: on the advance they can't be any bigger than their logistics train allows.

(One can just imagine the cursing and blows in Mordor's quartermaster corps that resulted when Lugburz moved up the whole timetable to 10 March!)