Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Here and reading.

[Macalaure]

Just skimmed the Day to see if anything pops out.

Originally Posted by BG

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

If you don't say it, it didn't happen. Anyway though, I'm buying this explanation. I actually find it a little eyebrow-raising that Brinn and Legate are so over this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

It definitely depends on how sure you are, though. Say you're a wolf and someone suspects you Day1 and then you night-kill them for suspecting them to be the seer, but you happen to be wrong. Now you repeat that during the next night and the next and... there's no way the village lets you live through all of that. With all seer-hunting, wolves also have to make sure the kills don't leave an obvious trail. A vague seer suspicion might not always be worth it.

Originally Posted by Pitch

This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No spreadsheet-shaming!

This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.

That's not exactly what I meant. There's two ways to interpret the voting, I think:

- One or both of Nilp and Form is a wolf and the wolves needed Hui to die instead. Rikae tieing him with Form, and then of course Nog and Kath's votes are suspicious in this case.

- Or neither is a wolf, in which case the wolves could've done anything they wanted, with throwaway-votes being slightly suspicious (Brinn, Pitch, and yes, me).

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

[Pitchwife]

BG, for crying out loud, we don't tell the whole village who we think the Gifted are!
(I really don't know what to make of BG at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with her conclusions (except as concerns myself, obviously), but the way she gets there is kind of weird and awkward.)
As for my Kath vote, although I said to Hui I couldn't see a wolf plot against him 'tween Kath and Lottie, I still thought (and think) Kath by herself could be a wolf for reasons I've explained more than once now.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Of course we all do it, but as you say, it shouldn't be said out loud. Also it could be used to cover for a fellow wolf, making people think they might be gifted instead of wolvish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No details about your married life, please.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

Not necessarily. Kath's vote didn't look at all panicky to me - she got the ball rolling on the entire Huin thing very early on in the Day, then came back after it had become a wagon and voted for him. If anything, it looks almost too choreographed.

I haven't had time to go through everyone as I hoped, but just quickly -

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

[Boromir88]

Like the previous day, this day started uneventful as the village diplomatically discussed spreadsheets, notes and information sharing systems. Discussion on gifteds and cobblers swirled, but as the day grew older, the townspeople realized there were still 4 werewolves among them!

Tensions and suspense filled as they all stared at each other for several minutes. Even the dead were scratching their heads about what they were supposed to do with the whole town engaged in a staring contest. But suddenly they were kicked into action. Accusations with a little more teeth to them, and votes began flying around in the final moments.

"I predict chaos!" said Lommy

"Great we ended in a tie with Formendacil and Nogrod! How are we to decide?"

The village appeared to be at an impasse for the longest time because they couldn't lynch both of them. There was only one gallow!

Then suddenly one of them fainted for a moment. It was Brinniel! In a trance she uttered the words ++Nogrod. When she came-to she screamed Nogrod. Vote Nogrod. You fool! Make it Nogrod!

And that is how the village finally reached their decision. Nogrod went to the gallows today. Thus ended the 2nd day where an ordinary villager was lynched

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 3. Silence in the village.

Werewolves discuss send me kill.

Seer dream.

Ranger protect.

BH set your trap.

[Boromir88]

It was a cold and brutal night. The townspeople were hoping to get through it with any sign of hope and good news. The first 2 days and nights did not go well at all for them.

In a secret corner of the town, the werewolves were on the verge of throwing a party. There was little they could complain about as everything seemed to be progressing as planned. But the pack also knew that one of their deaths, or a ranger save, or the seer outing them could turn the tide against them in an instant. Their victim was chosen and this night they were after a rare delicacy.

As dawn arrived and everyone in the village gathered in the center again, this time Blind Guardian was missing. When they plucked up the courage to visit her house they found her on her bed, motionless. Her eyes were gouged out and apparently eaten, or missing. Truly, she was blind now! Alas, this was depressing news to the townspeople, but there was still hope. For another ordinary villager, she was, which meant all the village's powerful protectors were still alive!

A voice from beyond has a laugh... "Woah this is eerily following the same path as a village from Lake-town 9 years ago. As assured then, it is assured now, there are werewolves, and cobbler, and seer, and ranger and beast hunter." *Voice dissipates into thin air.

(The content in the narrations contains no clues to any roles or what anyone's strategy is. They're for pure and innocent fun)


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch
Blind Guardian (Villager) - Killed by pack Night 3

The Living

A Little Green
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

*With 4 villagers, 3 will have to vote for the same person to have a Medium today.*

----

Since it came up in the Dead thread as a discussion topic. It did not happen in yesterday's lynch, but the Medium's vote could lead to a tie and the question was raised how would this effect who is lynched? Who would have reached the most votes first, if the Medium tied the vote?

I've decided to go with since the dead players choose 1 player's vote to count as 2. Whoever is chosen as Medium, and whenever they vote it will automatically count as 2. So that would make the tally from yesterday:

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)
Sally > Kath (3)
Brinn > Nogrod (5) - Medium +1
Shasta > Form (4)

[Rikae]

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC


Edit: crossed with Mac

[Formendacil]

Huh... Blind Guardian is a surprise.

Unless the Wolves though her "discuss the Gifteds" actions yesterDay were a sign of Giftedness, the only thing I see them gaining is a lack of a trail.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.

More spreadsheets once I get back to my computer, because--spoiler alert!--I did not, as it happens, abandon it after Day 1. (We're in a summer doldrum/pandemic doldrum at work, it seems.)

[satansaloser2005]

I'm not seeing why poor Huey was lynched yesterDay. Of the people on the block, I found Kath and Form to be more suspicious, though of course I didn't read in detail until I was feeling better and therefore had the knowledge of Huey's innocence. Also got weird vibes reading Mac. More on that later I hope.

A LIST!
Greenie: No read so far
BG: Getting an innocent vibe
Brinn: Still reeling from her excellence last game, automatic pass for toDay
Form: Yellow light, we'll see what happens the rest of toDay
Kath: Immediately struck me as suspicious and haven't changed my mind
Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me
Mac: Suspicious but not my main concern right now, again, more on that later
Nog: Not the mod, Sally, you idiot, pay attention to him
Nilp: ++My beloved, whom I don't suspect for now because he's always like this <3
Pitch: No read at all, but that's typical for him
Rikae: A decent feeling about them at this point, prefer to focus on others
Shasta: Feeling good about him at the moment
Lommy: Safe enough not to vote her, but I don't entirely trust her either

So I think that makes my projected pack for the Day: Form, Kath, Legate, and Mac, and no candidate for cobbler

Fork, now to bold the list and get back to more detailed thoughts. My headache is coming back too.

x'd since my last

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As it looks like that every time I express thoughts and give reasons for them I only get suspected, I would better just shut up.

Also, I remember that I used to vote at the very last minute because I felt I had a responsibility to be there in case of any last minute hassle by the wolves. That tended to put me under extra-suspicion in every-game and started getting heavy (I'd love to play one game in my life when I could do other stuff but defend myself from all kinds of accusations). So I decided to try a change and vote earlier - only to be accused of lycanthrophy because of that.

That is kind of frustrating.

This reads as a legitimately frustrated innocent Nog to me. Nog is normally facts and figures, not airing of any frustration, so I feel much better about him now. Also, don't shut up. We need you!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Hmm. Having read everything, basically more than half of the village give me actively innocent vibes, which is worriesome. (I mean, more than half of the village ARE innocent, but I doubt I'm very accurate. )

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

Whoa, whoa, hold on. How am I suspicious despite saying absolutely nothing of consequence before today? (I know, i know, I get flustered when I'm suspected as an innocent. It's a problem.) That doesn't make any sense to me. Please explain what has been suspicious in the zero game-related things I said?


I'm better now. Moving on....


x'd since my last again

[Rikae]

On Lottie's day 1 posts:
Let's not forget, in her very second post, her first mention of anyone, she banteringly goes after Form. This could have made a Form-wolf antsy - however, she voted for someone else when Form was in danger of being lynched, and that *should* have neutralized that.

Incidentally, just want to get this out there: the idea that there was little opposition to the Hui wagon = no wolves in danger doesn't quite hold water. It could just mean the wolves sat on their paws and hoped for the best rather than risk leaving a trail. This could especially be the case if they already thought the wolf in jeopardy was seer-dreamed or otherwise a lost cause (and I could totally see them leaving a packmate Nilp or Form to take his chances). So I'm not going to discount the possibility of a Nilp or Form wolf here.

#154

Originally Posted by Lottie

I get good vibes from*Greenie,*Rikae*and*Brinn, and pretty good vibes from*Shasta*and*Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question*Blind Guardian*or*Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people.

A Greenie, Rikae(hey, you don't know my role), Brinn, Shasta, BG or Sallywolf would have been perfectly happy to kill Lottie immediately if they thought she looked otherwise seerish, but nothing here would have made it any more likely. Of course, with only one dream most of the seer's posting is just going to be guesswork anyway, but a potential seer on the wrong track is less of an immediate threat to the wolves than a potential seer on the right track.

No wolf points.

With that in mind:

Originally Posted by Loslote

That leaves*Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy*as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about*Kath*or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about*Nog, Legate, and Lommy*by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

... no wolf points there either. It's very noncommittal, I don't think any of these people as wolves would be particularly worried about Lottie after reading this.

And one thing that jumped out at me just now, from toDay. Nog says this would have looked seerish:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

I disagree. Not another wolf point for Nog because one could reasonably disagree on this, but I don't think that looks seerish at all and therefore wouldn't put stock in theories based on that. I'd actually even put it in "things a seer might hesitate to say but a non-seer wouldn't think twice about saying" category.

As of now Form still looks vaguely suspicious to me, and Nogrod is worrying me but I don't want to put too much weight on him being a bit paranoid - that's led me astray before.

[Formendacil]

On the subject of why everything's quiet today, I can only speak for myself: it's a Sunday and the weather is gorgeous here. (Which may end the Excel experimeent... I haven't been keeping up with even the minor posts! Though we'll see... if work is uncharacteristically dead on a Monday tomorrow...).

Thoughts thus far:

Blind Guardian - Overall, I'm suspicious, but I think that's mostly just that she popped out of nowhere and got a lynchwaggon rolling toward me yesterday. Her posts today strengthen my mistrust.

Brinniel - True neutral. She hasn't left much of an impression--she was right on the cusp of the bottom three for impact yesterDay and I haven't been engaged as much toDay. Neutral is bad, but I'm not sure it's suspicious.

Kath - I thought something looked a bit off when I posted this morning, and I don't seem to be the only one. Her vote for Huin simultaneously looks like hiding her reasoning in a bandwaggon AND the final nail in Huin's coffin. Can it be both? She's one of my top two suspects.

Legate - Not suspicious to me yet. Maybe he should be? Just from Life (aka, Facebook and a dozen years in the forums), I feel like I *ought* to have an opinion.

A Little Green - Falls into the "would have liked more posts" column, but the few that have been seem substantive enough. This could be a wolf trying to thread the "don't lurk, don't drawn attention" needle, but she's not on my radar.

Macalaure - Has seemed more active today (or is that just the rest of us being less active?). Roughly in the same category as Greenie: I have no real opinion.

Nilpaurion - I had no idea what his role was yesterDay... and somehow I have even less idea today. Does this mean that Nilp is actually Cobblering by... doing nothing suspicious? I don't know that I trust him, but I don't think he's a wolf.

Nogrod - He's drawn attention to doings things differently than in past, and I think it's been laboured a bit too much. But I also don't think he'd do that as a Wolf? But I *do* think he would be cunning enough to try it as a Wolf. Layers upon layers. I lean suspicious, but not my first choice to lynch on that score.

Pitchwife - Right there with Kath in my morning post and he actually wins the tiebreaker because his vote is a real "not commiting to any bandwaggon" kind of vote, and those look and feel wolf-on-wolf to me--and, of course, my suspicion of Kath reinforces this concern. He's my top suspect, but I probably SHOULDN'T tie his judgement so closely to hers.

Rikae - Rubbed me the wrong way yesterDay, but I don't know why I think that... Just because they disagreed with me?

Sally - Too little data. Completely unscientific, but people with real life issues rarely seem to be Wolves... so my gut feeling says to not worry about for now.

Shasta - I feel like I OUGHT to mistrust Shasta, but I don't.

Thinlómien - I feel less strongly about her Wrongness than she does about mine, but for now I think she's probably Not a Wolf.




So... my wolfpack nominees appear to be Pitch, Kath, Nog?, and a wolf to be uncovered later.


EDIT: X-posted with everyone since Sally in 528.