Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Greenie

And speaking of Nessa, I'm not feeling any better about her toDay.

I've been having the same feeling about her for awhile but just didn't know what to make of it. The same applies for Elron and Wilwa. Maybe it's because all three are quiet and have been kind of slipping under my radar that I'm very leery of them. I think I'm going to take a closer look at all three of them.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Agan

I wouldn't be that quick to disregard the possibility of her being the seer.

If she was, she was extremely stupid to suggest the scenario of a wolf going kamikaze and making a seer-reveal on the dead thread.

Originally Posted by Agan

That he was worried about them finding out his alignment - which would point at his being a wolf. Of course the most sensible thing a basically known cobbler can do in Mandos is to be as chaotic as possible, so I don't know.

And he alone could convince innocent!Mänwë and innocent!Shasta to leave him be? I thought Nerwen had something more drastic in mind. I have the feeling someone's keeping information from me.

Originally Posted by Mith

Three are dead and It was clear from Shasta's post. There aren't very many posts today and surely his are the ones were are all interested in. Rather suprised that you aren't.

I didn't say I'm not. In fact, I think he could talk more.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because you were one of his top suspects.

How does a cobbler's top suspect equal innocent? Or just trusting phantom's brainpower that much?


edit: xed with Boro

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

.

I didn't say I'm not. In fact, I think he could talk more.

No you didn't say but your posts show you didn't even bother reading to the second sentence of his only post!

Now the only reason I can think of for not scouring his every word is that he can tell you nothing new ie that you already know who is a wolf or not.

[A Little Green]

A quick look at Elra. DOES NOT include full quotes of all her posts, only the extracts I thought were or could be relevant.

Day 1

Anyhow. Most unhappy with not having a very good read on anybody yet.

Legate, Nog, and Agan are of course posting their usual tomes. Lommy seems a little more...confused...than usual. (Though who am I to talk about "usual", this being only my third game ever...) phantom is on my good side at the moment. Despite the incessant chatter (joke), he seems to be thinking things through in a more, erm, down-to-earth fashion than other tome-writers (sorry, Legate and Co.).

So Lommy is confused an phantom looks good.

This is the way my brain is working too... The train of thought goes: "Okay, we want to kill the baddies. But we also don't want to make malicious ghosts. Crap."

This tension between Nogrod and Shasta worries me somewhat. Hrmmm.

++Nogrod

Partly because Shasta's overreaction makes him seem innocent. And if Nog's not guilty, then he'll be a helpful ghost.

So, the tension between Shasta and Nog is worrying, Shasta's reaction looks innocent, so she votes for Nog. I'm not sure of the soundness of this logic (given how wrong innocents can be of each other), but for Day 1 it looks fair enough.

Day 2

Oh dear, oh dear. Poor Shasta.

I still don't know quite what to make of yesterDay. Manwe's been killed, for reasons beyond me. That whole Shasta vs. Nog thing was troublesome, and probably why Shasta got dead. Makes me worry about Nog. And phantom is a bother at the back of my brain. Something seems off about him, despite his sense-making. Or maybe that's just him. So many people in this game that I haven't played with before...this makes for an uncomfortable lack of predictability.

The first line looks fabricated, but then, I think that every time someone expresses misery over a Night kill. I'm not a fan of the tone of the second paragraph either, but can't really pinpoint what exactly is off there.

Dear me. I don't like any of this at all. Nog, the seer?!? What? Gah. He could very well be being truthsome, and tp etc. ganging up on him to distract. Or he could be trying to fool us all into going after tp, which people will undoubtedly be willing to do, considering phanty's verbosity. I simply don't know which faction is right. Both of them have been pinging my "uh-oh" radar. I may abstain today if this goes on much longer.

Looks like honest confusion, but I don't know how much can be read to that - after all, there's no reason why that situation would have been any less confusing to a wolf (unless either Nog or phantom is one, of course).

Abstaining. At this point om not going to change the outcome, and I don't think I can condone either side. Sorry, all.

Day 3

Only one post this far.

I agree with you on this. phantom still seems fishy, but not to the point of being wolfish. There are much better targets to be examined than him.

What caught my eye about Elra's posts is how her opinion on the phantom changes. Day 1 he feels good, Day 2 he seems off and has been pinging her "uh-oh" -radar, and Day 3 he still seems fishy but there are better candidates. Generally Elra's leaning more innocent than not. Her first post on Day 2 is slightly fishy, but other than that I caught nothing that would point to evil intentions.

[Glirdan]

Day 1

Post #79

First post of the Day and she says this:

And to move on to more productive matters.... This will be just as difficult for the wolves, yes? They won't know who it is they kill, so our information is equal.

A lot of...well...nothing...Nothing of true substance, nothing that is really, as she put it, "productive". She says things that have alredy been said or is just common knowledge.

Post #102

Again, nothing. A one line post saying she doesn't know who to vote for. Doesn't give any thoughts of her own on anything that was said up to this point, doesn't share her thoughts on anybody else. Nothing.

Post #138

Finally gives some thoughts of her own on something that Fea had said, more specifically about Fea's "Deadifying active players" plan. States that she will vote randomly and I quote:

my Day 1 vote will probably be random, and based on knee-jerk reaction, in a wonderfully useless fashion.

Then goes on to banter.

Post #147

Her vote post, voting for Legate (the first one for him of the Day) with this as her reasoning.

Because he voted me. And he's useful/won't muddy the waters in the dead thread.

and then goes on to say this:

Dear heavens, someone shoot me. I just made the worst vote ever, didn't I?

The one thing I like about this is that she did kind of follow through with how she was going to vote. I say kind of because she did give a reason for the vote, although it was out of pure spite.

Day 2

Post #323

First post of the Day. Responds to Legate, admitting her vote was a throwaway and says this to Greenie:

I also see why Greenie would suspect me, but I'm just being honest. After all, ordos have nothing to lose from honesty-we just have to find some wolves.

A valid enough answer and reasoning.

Aaand, Nog seems to be ruffling everybody feathers, and the whole situation makes me upset. This is more "aggressive" than I've ever seen him in my admittedly small number of games with him, but he doesn't seem to think that of himself. However, the distrust of the other players looks odd. Just plain odd.

I have no idea what to make of this. I wouldn't mind hearing an explanation from her on how everyone else's distrust of Nog is "odd". This is a game of Werewolf. It's what we do, distrust one another until someone is proven innocent.

And the whole Shasta stuff makes sense to me. I don't know who I'll vote. It won't do any good to toss my vote like yesterDay, since it wouldn't affect the lynch, but I don't want a double-lynch. That leaves bandwagoning.

Again, not sure what to make of this. I do know that I don't like this. It doesn't "leave bandwaggoning". Vote for who you think is guilty, not who everyone else is voting for.

Post #336

Votes for phantom because she believe Nog (this was before Agan snapped her trap on Nobbler) and then is gone the rest of the Day. I will give her credit for following her own gut instinct on this one instead of just following the masses.

All in all, I am not very fond of Nessa, she seems to be latching on to everything other people are saying and really only making her own decisions with her votes, which haven't been all that helpful either. I'm tempted to believe one of the following two scenarios: 1) She's a Cobbler or 2) a very confusing innocent.

EDIT: X'ed since last

[Glirdan]

Day 1

Completely absent (only remembered that the game started when she got a phone call from me reminding her).

Day 2

Post #228

Just saying she was here and getting caught up on everything.

Post #231

Quotes something from Boro and says that she would have said the same thing (and reading what Boro posted and the tone in which it was said, I could definitely see Wilwa saying the same thing).

Brings up a very good point about the voting:

Alrighty. So not much can be taken from Manwe's lynch, because we have no idea what he is. We can still suspect/trust people based on their votes (all votes, not just those for Manwe), but not in the usual way. Usually we can say "X voted for Y, who we now know is innocent, so...", but now it's more based on why they voted for people, so if they gave good reasoning, or if it seemed random, and so on. It's an interesting situation, cause now someone can look bad to us because of how they voted, but for all we know they actually voted a wolf (which would make them look awesome), but we don't have that knowledge. It's all just so crazy.

Thinks I don't look like a Wolf because of my "Last-time-Shasta-was-a-Seer" comment, but states that she could believe me to be a Cobbler but also says this:

Or Shasta's death is totally unrelated to Glirdy's comment, and more related to the fact that people seemed to like him a lot (though this doesn't exclude the possibility of Glirdy being a Cobbler, he could still have meant to hint at the Wolves but the Wolves just killed Shasta for a totally different reason).

Post #327

Focuses on Nog's Seer reveal, incling to believe him.

I am inclined to believe him. This would be a rather crazy bold thing for a Wolf, or even a Cobbler to do, on only Day 2. And I can understand why he felt he had to reveal, what with the Lovers in the position they're in, and people seeming to want to vote for him. Now he'll be safe for toNight, and then he can dream of people as they die, and hopefully the Ranger lasts for a while and can provide us with a bunch of those dreams later on in the game (even if it's just dreams of dead players, that's still super useful, cause it'll be information that we can use to find connections between people).

This is definitely a very logical statement, and one that I feel a Wolf or Cobbler would not make. I don't know why, I just feel like the statement screams innocent. I just feel like a Wolf and/or Cobbler wouldn't make a statement that bold or reveal a possible plan of attack.

Goes on to say that she would rather no lynch phantom.

Post #363

Says this in response to Agan's trap:

This is the bestest thing ever.

Post #368

Agrees with Angu (there, better then Toppins?? ) about feeling silly about trusting Nog and agrees that he is definitely not the Seer.

Post #372

Votes Nog

All in all, I'd say Wilwa seems fairly innocent to me. The tone of her posts and the way she's posting says innocent. The only downside is the frequentness of her posts....or I should say, lack there of.

EDIT: Xed since last...again

[Glirdan]

And Greenie just did the Elra analysis for me, which I will read up later, but for now, I must depart for supper. I also have a rehearsal I have to leave for in about two hours and will be there for three hours, so if I do not make an appearence before my rehearsal, expect me back afterwards for voting.

[A Little Green]

I have to go to sleep now. So I'm going to go for

++ Lommy

Because out of my current top suspects Lommy and Nessa, she's the one that I find a less likely innocent. She quite simply isn't herself at all, she's jumpy and nervous and making weird arguments.

Good night!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oh, not even her seeming certainty that Shasta wasn't the seer or her reluctance to believe Nog?

I wouldn't think so. I mean, I don't think Fea was the Seer, and that doesn't mean that I myself am. And Fea wasn't the only one to distrust Nog's reveal. When it comes to Seer candidates, I'd think the wolves could have found stronger ones.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

How does a cobbler's top suspect equal innocent? Or just trusting phantom's brainpower that much?

It hardly certified your innocence, but it did make me more hesitant to distrust you. After all, when you have two suspects, one of which is suspected by a 'cobbler' and the other of which is suspected by a 'seer', which are you going to want to vote?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regarding the dead thread

The votes on Manwe came about as follows - I was quite vocal about Nog, and voted him just as soon as Night started. Nog came on and we dueled for a while, but he was very calm about his impending reveal, even going out of his way to vote for himself. I decided that he was a cobbler at that point (had been leaning that way for some time), and retracted my vote to switch to Manwe, whom we knew nothing about but /was/ lynched (Nog's actions being such that I felt he knew he'd turn up 'not a wolf'). Manwe then came on and voted for himself, making it 2 for him and 1 for Nog.

I also told the dead thread to always vote for the lynched player for the role reveal - anyone killed by the wolves is by definition not a wolf, so a revelation of them is a waste.

In other news, Nog is still claiming that Phantom is a cobbler. Manwe would like Boro, among others, looked at. Oh, yes, and Fea is high on Nog's suspected list. Anyway.

Lommy's actions today are striking me as odd, but not wolfish-odd - they look more to me like a Prelude to Chaos in C Minor - that is, a lead-up to a chaotic cobbler play. The main person I'm looking at is Lottie, who defended Nog yesterday.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The main person I'm looking at is Lottie, who defended Nog yesterday.

I would have done the same thing as an innocent or as a wolf. As an innocent, I believed his claim. I supported him because I didn't want to lynch our Seer. As a wolf, I still would have believed his claim. I would have supported him to try and avoid a Seer dream. After all, lynches you can fight against. Seer dreams you can't control. As a cobbler is where I'd have done it differently. I still would have believed his claim. And, as a cobbler, I'd have attacked him. As a cobbler, I wouldn't fear a Seer dream - if I died, I died, no biggie - but I would like to see the Seer lynched, so that they wouldn't dream of any wolves.

So, basically, the only thing you can learn from my defense of Nog is that I'm either innocent or a wolf or a lying cobbler, and that I'm a little bit guillible.

[Mithalwen]

There are a lot on the dark side this game but not an infinite number - some of the people playing silly beggars have to be wolves..they can't all be cobblers esp if the BG hypothesis is correct. Lommie hasn't been as I remembered her this game. Either she has become disengaged or she is up to something. If I had to vote now it would be for her but I can hang fire for a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Boro - I get it you're not exactly happy about me suspecting you when you're already being suspected by many. However, I'm not going to drop my suspicions or apologise for them just because you're my friend. And what you said still is basically "you're (almost) right when calling me a cobbler", whether you meant it or not. And of course you say you didn't mean it, but you must understand I can't take your word for that. And I might be ignoring most of the other suspicion coming your way - because, like you said, it's baseless. It's Sally's and elephant's problem if they don't have grounds for their suspicions, not mine. And I guess I do not need to comment on Nog's suspicions on you, since that cobbler is already dead.

I didn't pay much attention to Nessa before, but Glirdan's analysis is rather eyebrow-raising. Whether it means Nessa is guilty (and I think he could be as well a wolf as a cobbler) or Glirdan is a crafty cobbler, I cannot really say. Have to think about this.

Originally Posted by Mith

No you didn't say but your posts show you didn't even bother reading to the second sentence of his only post!
Now the only reason I can think of for not scouring his every word is that he can tell you nothing new ie that you already know who is a wolf or not.

Come on, that's not very nice. I already said I didn't realise the revealment-vote thingy started yet (I didn't realise it started right after the death of the third peson, if you want to chastise me for something, you ought to chastise me for not reading the rules properly not for not reading other people's posts carefully) and that's why I was confused. I don't really like this post of yours, because either you have not been reading my posts properly or you're intentionally trying to make me look ridiculous.

Glirdan's analysis made me think about Wilwa more. I see my vote yesterDay was hasty - apart from the gloating tone of her first post, she actually seems quite fine.

Originally Posted by Greenie

She quite simply isn't herself at all, she's jumpy and nervous and making weird arguments.

I protest! I think my arguments aren't any weirder than normal, the game is just a lot weirder than any in ages with the dead thread, unknown roles and three cobblers. *shudders*

Originally Posted by Lottie

After all, when you have two suspects, one of which is suspected by a 'cobbler' and the other of which is suspected by a 'seer', which are you going to want to vote?

Okay, fair point.

Shasta, thanks for the info. That's sure something to think about.


edit: xed with Mith, Legz and Boro

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien;648207.

Come on, that's not very nice. I already said I didn't realise the revealment-vote thingy started yet (I didn't realise it started right after the death of the third peson, if you want to chastise me for something, you ought to chastise me for not reading the rules properly not for not reading other people's posts carefully) and that's why I was confused. I don't really like this post of yours, because either [I

you [/I]have not been reading my posts properly or you're intentionally trying to make me look ridiculous.

"Nogrod. Every indication is that of cobblery, even io to his dead vote"

This was the sentence after the one where Shasta says that Manwe has a wolf. You didn't have to read the rules carefully to get a fairly big reminder that the dead had started. So don't you get on your high horse with me when you have proved what I have said is true. You cannot claim both that you have read Shasta's post thoroughly AND that you were unaware of the dead vote starting.

I am not trying to make you look ridiculous. I am pointing out an inconsistency which is perfectly valid and as far as I can see I am on to something. I am now absolutely certain you are at least a cobbler.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I am around now, though really not much in the state for playing (feeling incredibly tired, almost to the point of exhaustion, seriously).

Generally, there hasn't been even too much said... the things that have stood out for me is the debate about Boro, which may have its merit, and also some of the points Greenie had brought about elra in her analysis are interesting. Otherwise, general comments...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. It is my feeling that a cobbler posing as the Seer is still more dangerous on the Living than the Dead thread. So I'm not sure the people who voted him after that look as bad as you think. I mean, the way things were going at that time, the alternative candidate was phantom (also as a supposed cobbler.) Though, I guess it's interesting that everyone appeared to see it as one or the other. I mean– why?

Well, phantom was there probably because Nog has labeled him as a dreamed-of Cobbler. So I think otherwise, the "two camps" existed most likely simply because of Nog's revelation.

As for the dangerousness of the Cobbler, well, after a Night or two, if he wasn't targeted, it would become clear that he is not what he claims to be. Also...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I agree the baddies might have been voting for him though, especially if one of their own was suspected. But I don't think it's bad we lynched Nog. If we want to achieve anything, we have to kill the baddies, all of them not just the wolves. I don't like how Legate keeps insisting the cobblers are of secondary importance.

They are not - but it is a bit different from other games, and especially under the circumstances like these, lynching a Cobbler a) prevents you from lynching a Wolf (so the Cobbler is partially fulfilling its purpose), b) with so low numbers, the Cobbler can start making a mess in Mandos. And he also cannot be distinguished anymore from an ordinary innocent (or gifted). So, like this. I think in general it would have been more advantageous for the WWs yesterDay to lynch the Cobbler than for us. Something like that.

Okay. I am afraid I won't get to my Nerwelysis, which I wanted to make, or I can try, but depending on how much she had posted... otherwise, I might just slowly decide my vote... there are several options, I am still circling more or less around the Nessa-phantom-maybe Lottie (?) or also Ang - circle with Lommies/Boros/some of the abovementioned being also possibly a Cobbler... (and now interested about Elronhubbard and still having Nerwen to look at)

EDIT: x-ed after LG's vote, with Lottie, Shasta, Lottie, Mith

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Agan

When I first read this I thought it was Boro's explanation for believing Nog's claim (which I found extremely fishy) but now that it isn't 4 am anymore, I see it wasn't the case and it actually makes sense. Hmm okay then there's his next post where his opinion changes (after phantom corrected him about the rules) so I don't know what he meant after all...

I never truly believed his claim, but I thought the reason baddies make fake reveals is the desperate attempt to save themselves for at least one more day. However, I thought if a wolf-Nog was truly trying to save himself it would have been far easier to just say he didn't have a wolf, or if he was going to name someone as a baddie, than to name that person as a wolf. To me, calling phantom a cobbler wasn't a sure fire way for Nog to save himself, which is the objective of an fake reveal.

At that time I didn't come to any sure conclusion about Nog's reveal, but I wasn't really believing it either.

Then when phantom pointed out since the cobblers aren't going to be revealed in the dead thread, it's actually smarter that he names a cobbler because then Nog's fake seer claim would be harder to check. If Nog claims phantom's a wolf, phantom dies, and it turns up in the dead thread phantom is not a wolf, Nog's trick is up. I wasn't thinking about the cobblers prior, and once phantom pointed out why Nog would chose to call him a cobbler instead of a wolf, I was dead set convinced Nog had fake revealed. And that he's probably a cobbler, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns up wolf either.

That all occured before your own trap, which I did not see until waking up later (which the BD happened to be brokey for a while when I did wake up )

I think Nessa's too easy of a target. Granted, that's what everyone said when she was a wolf previously, that she was getting framed, but then she fueled the idea she was getting framed. I think we tend to forget when you really don't have any information it's difficult to come up with some impeccable shiny-phantom idea. All you can really do is read what's posted, guess at who sounds good to you, which typically looks like you're just sitting back and going with the flow. Going with the flow is not really a solid reason to suspect someone of wolvery, and Glirdan, you shouldn't overlook the times when Nessa has added her own ideas.

I may be back. I may not be.

++Lommy

Reasons should be clear enough from my previous post. And I didn't even get to her opinions about Nog, which really said nothing about what her opinions were. Nog Day 1 "seemed ok" and was then was giving her a headache Day 2. And then the comment about how Shasta's (or was it Fea's? I forget) death made Nog look better.

As for me, I'm ready to make my own bed.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

++Lommy

Reasons should be clear enough from my previous post. And I didn't even get to her opinions about Nog, which really said nothing about what her opinions were. Nog Day 1 "seemed ok" and was then was giving her a headache Day 2. And then the comment about how Shasta's (or was it Fea's? I forget) death made Nog look better.

Hey come on now that's over the top! I think (I don't remember) I thought Nog okay on Day1, but yesterDay I was confused. There was something fishy in his manner, yet it was fishy in the typical Nogrod manner. I wasn't around when he made his revelation. And as for toDay - I have quite clearly said several times I think it's most likely he was a cobbler.

I think you're taking this a bit personally, which I'm sorry about, because I never meant to provoke you that way (I know you said you're not insulted, which is good, 'cos I'm not trying to insult anyone).

Wondering if this is a sign of innocence and I shouldn't vote you toDay...?

Gah. I should make a list to organise my head. I have so many probable cobblers in my head and only a few probable wolves.

[elronds_daughter]

Well, the only opinions I've developed over the course of the day are a) I tend to think the people who do lots of in-depth analyzing (e.g., Greenie, Glirdy) are innocent; b) I still don't like the way phantom's been coming across*, but I won't vote for him today because I think he's just a cobbler; c) I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro vs. Lommy...thing...but if I had to choose one of them right now I'd side with Boro.

I'll be back later to vote.


*Greenie, I feel I ought to explain how tp went from "on my good side" to "pinging my uh-oh radar", since it seemed to worry you a bit (though not enough to think I'm guilty, thanks for that). I have a bad habit of sometimes only skimming through people's tome-posts, and tp was at first distilling those down to a point where my overtaxed brain could understand....but then his nice distillations turned into confusion-sowing (at least that's how I perceived it). Hence the switch. He hasn't talked much today, though. I'm not sure what to make of that.

EDIT: x'ed with lots, in particular sally who explained tp's silence.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

[B]
I have no idea what to make of this. I wouldn't mind hearing an explanation from her on how everyone else's distrust of Nog is "odd". This is a game of Werewolf. It's what we do, distrust one another until someone is proven innocent.

I was referring to his distrust of the other players .

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Still, I'm having doubts about Nog. His frustration with the village didn't seem faked.

Even a baddie can be genuinely frustrated. Just saying.

I am actually feeling somewhat better about Lommy. She may be acting weirdly, but if she really was a baddie, why would she make a lot of noise about Boro 'hinting' at her? If she's a wolf who thinks she has found the cobbler, she won't try to lynch the cobbler. If she's a cobbler who thinks she's found a wolf, she won't try to lynch the wolf. If she's a cobbler who thinks she's found another cobbler, she won't try to lynch the cobbler. Think about it.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

This is definitely a very logical statement, and one that I feel a Wolf or Cobbler would not make. I don't know why, I just feel like the statement screams innocent.

The problem with wilwa is, she plays with an innocent mindset (just like I usually think from a wolf's point of view, which should explain my dangerous dead union comment or whatever it was). She can say something even if it might make things more difficult for her side, and as a result she always seems very innocent. So while I kind of agree it's unlikely a wolf would have said so, I wouldn't put it past wilwa.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I wouldn't think so. I mean, I don't think Fea was the Seer, and that doesn't mean that I myself am. And Fea wasn't the only one to distrust Nog's reveal. When it comes to Seer candidates, I'd think the wolves could have found stronger ones.

Yes, but the wolves can't know that. And Fea was one of the least inclined to believe Nog which says something.
I'm still not liking Lottie very much.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

(Nog's actions being such that I felt he knew he'd turn up 'not a wolf'). Manwe then came on and voted for himself, making it 2 for him and 1 for Nog.

He could still be a wolf though. That would be a reasonable course of action even for a wolf, and although I'm tending towards his being a cobbler, I wouldn't rule out wolvery either...
I am wondering about Mänwe now though. He rather proved his own non-wolvery to us than let us know Nog's role. Cobbler doing damage control? Not that I ever particularly suspected him, but that doesn't exactly look good on him.

I also told the dead thread to always vote for the lynched player for the role reveal - anyone killed by the wolves is by definition not a wolf, so a revelation of them is a waste.

This is probably a good idea. If the wolves want to kill one of their own just to fool us, they're one wolf down and I don't think it's worth it.
Does this now mean we'll never learn Nog's role, though?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

with so low numbers, the Cobbler can start making a mess in Mandos.

Not really. After today you'll have two known innocents in Mandos, and even though it isn't much, each innocent who ends up there will at least know whose intentions to trust to be true.

It's pretty late so I should probably do a quick list and then vote.

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Shasta&Agan - obviously.
Elra - I can't really see much suspicious in anything she does. She seems genuine.

No idea
Greenie - hasn't rung any alarm bells except toDay. I'm trying to avoid being knee-jerky, but her vote for me seemed awfully like "hey let's pick a popular suspicion and see if it can be made into a bandwagon" especially as I really don't think she has a good reason to suspect me.
Nerwen - she could be anything! An innocent, a wolf or a cobbler trying a smoother approach... anything.
Wilwa - Glirdan's analysis made me really think her innocent, but after I wrote what I did about Glirdan (see below) I started to wonder if I have been talked into thinking this way. (I can just too well see a Glibbler spotting a Wolvarin and making an innocence promoting analysis of her.)
Legate - rather funnily, he's quite safely under my radar. I hope he's innocent, but I wouldn't dare to bet anything.
Anguirel - I thought him a cobbler yesterDay, toDay I'm not so sure. Yes, he might be misleading with all the talk about the dead thread instead of concentrating on more useful stuff, but I think that's probably just his style after all. He hasn't posted much toDay, though, so I think I need more to be certain.

Cobbler vibes
Glirdan - there's something funny about his manner, and his Day1 curiosities have been discussed lengthily enough for me to leave them out of here. Also, I can just so well see a cobbler trying to affect the village by posting analyses of people and intentionally interpreting stuff in a certain way.
Lottie - mostly based on her Day2 behaviour and possibly for defending Nog yesterDay whatever she says. Has been quite reasonable toDay, though.
phantom - like I've said before, the vibes he gives me are those of a cobbler trying to mess up with the heads of the villagers (not that he doesn't do that as an innocent ). But just all this misleading talk about the dead thread and wonderful-seeming strategies which have faults on closer look. I feel an innocent phantom would be sharper: not concentrate on minor things like the dead thread or make such non-waterproof startegies all the time.
Boro - I believe I have stated enough reasons for this.
Mith - I don't really like her way of intentionally misunderstanding me, plus her voting preferences have been seriously quite fishy this far: first the stab at a double lynch and yesterDay wanting to waste the village's chance of getting a wolf or a cobbler by voting BG.

Wolf vibes
Nessa - I haven't paid much attention to her, but everybody else seems to have done so and nothing I've seen people say about her makes me think her very innocent. I think either there's merit to all this suspicion flying around, or she's being attacked by cobblers and wolves because she's quite an easy target with those few quirky pieces of behaviour.
Sally - she hasn't been around much, but the little I've seen isn't entirely convincing. Where's the funny all-over-the-place-Sally we see most of the time? This solemnity is ill-befitting and makes me suspicious.


edit: xed with Agan and Legate

[Thinlómien]

Eww it's late. I should vote and go to sleep.

But I have a problem - my wolf suspects are very very vague, one is based on a rather rnadom impression and the other on others' opinions. My cobbler suspects (Boro, Mith, Phantom) are much stronger, but it makes more sense to vote a possible wolf than a cobbler. But on the other hand, rather vote a probable cobbler than a person you don't really suspect. Grr. Need to think.


edit: xed with Legate

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Agan

I think it's far-fetched to put ed in the innocent category - she certainly has done little to make me think her innocent even if she hasn't been actively suspicious either (except her "Oh dear poor Shasta" thing which I don't particularly like because newbie wolves often feel very self-conscious about the kill or about being wolves in general and feel the need to express it in some way).

That's just how she seems to me, call it a gut-feeling or something. I might also be just biased because I have the impression of her as Winnie the Pooh stuck in my head (apologies if this is insulting, but I personally adore Winnie the Pooh)! And, I just don't suspect her, simple as that. I don't get why my thinking her innocent is so suspicious.

Originally Posted by Agan

And I honestly don't see why Nessa is being suspected so heavily so I don't quite get why Lommy is getting wolf vibes from her (especially as she admits to feeling the same way about her). Granted, I wasn't suspicious of her last time she was a wolf, either - she just seems like the kind of player I accept with "that's just how she is" even if she is being suspicious.

Read through the points raised against her, and you'll see they are valid enough if not brilliant. Anyway, I'm now personally going to check her posts to see if I have been talked into suspecting her or if she really is fishy. So Ms Nitpick you'll get an update on the topic soon.

Originally Posted by Agan

And sally is busy which should explain the absence of the funny sally.

Yes but even when she's here she's not funny. *grumble grumble*


edit: xed with a looong Sally... yay!

[Aganzir]

Now I almost regret saying Lommy looks more innocent. I think it's far-fetched to put ed in the innocent category - she certainly has done little to make me think her innocent even if she hasn't been actively suspicious either (except her "Oh dear poor Shasta" thing which I don't particularly like because newbie wolves often feel very self-conscious about the kill or about being wolves in general and feel the need to express it in some way).

And I honestly don't see why Nessa is being suspected so heavily so I don't quite get why Lommy is getting wolf vibes from her (especially as she admits to feeling the same way about her). Granted, I wasn't suspicious of her last time she was a wolf, either - she just seems like the kind of player I accept with "that's just how she is" even if she is being suspicious.
And sally is busy which should explain the absence of the funny sally.

[satansaloser2005]

PAGES ONE THROUGH THREE....gah, this is going to take forever....

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In some ways this situation is a curse for the wolves. Whenever you have roles revealed at death, the wolves have the night to concoct whatever story they want, because everyone now knows the person's role. And the wolves can spin the lynch however they want. "How did that bandwagon happen against Glirdan yesterday! There must be a wolf in that evil wagon!" (when really it's just a false lead because as everyone would now know Glirdan's role) However, not getting the role at the person's death, means the wolves can't manipulate any information from the lynch, because to the non-wolves there is no info for the wolves to manipulate.

I think this is both true and misleading. The wolves will still use everything to their advantage. Since we don’t know roles, they could easily lynch me (for instance) and claim the next Day that I was clearly wolfish and that my wolfishness points to X, Y, and Z. They can’t manipulate the information, no, but they can more easily manipulate based on the lack of information.

Also, Boro mentioned twitter. Thus, he must die.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

1) The ability of the dead to detect wolves is triggered after three deaths (surely not counting the coavalta co-mods). In the normal way of things, there will only be two by tomorrow. Might we want to engineer a double-lynching so that the Dead can start helping us with their deliberations earlier?

2) The wolves are in a bit of a bind here. They need to survive to win, but if they altogether lack representation in the second chamber (qualified for by death) they will be missing out on valuable intelligence and will be vulnerable to a more united front from the Dead. I suspect, therefore, that they will actively want one of their number - probably no more than that, at least for a while - to die as early as possible. They will at least hope that the cobblers do. Maybe they'll try and identify and lynch the cobblers, even.

Re: #1. Oh, goodness, no. The only time I’d go for a multiple lynch is if we had a darn good chance of catching a wolf, and even then it could end poorly. What if we lynch two cobblers? They could influence the dead thread and get us pretty much no information whatsoever.

Re: #2. This is actually a good point. Too good, in fact. It’s good to think on wolf tactics, but this seems too much like a wolf planning ahead.

This is making me think that tangy Ang is more like fangy Ang.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

A union of dead Elves who trusted each other with good reason could do the wolves real damage (as Gifteds who recognise each other have managed to do in the past). Cobblers are all very well, but they don't really know who they're helping; a wolf, especially if they were sacrificed in such a way that they looked very convincing, could do much more informed damage.

I'm quite keen on finding out about the inside of Mandos, in fact; I'm struggling with the urge to volunteer myself for the 'great adventure'...never before have I felt so Elven. Voting for myself would be precisely the opposite of rationality (which I find appealing), while avoiding the exact Nilpaurion cliche because of our unique plight. But I will, at the moment, resist. I wouldn't want any of you to think I was a cobbler, or even a coward.

And a union of baddies in the dead thread can compromise what little information we can get. Cobblers, special information or not, are perceptive and can do more damage than we often realize.

And that? That just makes me....gah, wolf radar is pinging like mad. If you’re an ordo, you dying will do the village no good. If you’re a wolf, this serves your team a great advantage.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

satansaloser2005 - fishy as a fish.

Impressive, especially considering that I hadn’t said anything at the time (except for my short post saying that I wouldn’t be back due to scheduling/internet issues). Yes. Terribly suspicious of me. :/

Originally Posted by the phantom

1) There is absolutely no point to the Lovers hinting in any way towards themselves or even towards their partner.

2) The Seer should commit suicide right away.

3) Glorfindel should... um... I don't know. Commit suicide soon to gain double protections and give us a trusted source until the baddies are forced to flush a kill on him in order to re-dead him? Or stay alive as long as possible to be a late-game news bearer between the threads?

What, yes!, and definitely(ish) respectively. I can’t believe I’m agreeing with Phantom, but our gifteds (at least our ranger) are better undead than unharmed. I’m almost tempted to say that the ranger should come out and be double lynched toDay, but there are too many problems with the plan to even begin to count. If our ranger was brave and selfless, however, I’d totally be up for it. At the same time, however, it would be better to sacrifice the ranger at a later time, so they could bring back the most information possible from the dead thread. Save more people or bring us more information? It’s up to us to decide which is more valuable.

Originally Posted by plotting pudding

Not to mention that the Dead can indirectly pass information to the Living. The rules say that the narration will reveal each person who receives the extra Dead vote that day. What if the Dead agreed to always give their extra vote to whichever person the Seer dreamed to be innocent!! If we agree to this, then we could pass every innocent dream from the dead Seer to the Living, and if the voting weight is repeated on the same person, that will be a sign that the dream from the previous night was a Wolf (or died), which also could help.

Also, plans could be made on the Dead Thread and passed up to the Living, such as, "Tell them that so-and-so is getting dreamed tonight when I dream, and if that person doesn't receive the extra vote the following day then they must be a Wolf." Are you following me with this, or am I completely off base and forgetting something obvious?

He continues to make scarily good sense (see underlined). The only problem is catching the correct balance between when to do that. The seer dreaming the dead is just as useful as them dreaming the living. If we could figure out a way to keep a steady information flow, I think a dead seer could be just as useful as a living one.

Here’s a different plan. Why couldn’t the seer dream of the person we lynched every Day, and we could work out a system to evaluate guilt or innocence that way? Sure, we’d be on a delay, but it’d be better than no information at all.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Well, good Day, and many excuses for my absence!

And to move on to more productive matters.... This will be just as difficult for the wolves, yes? They won't know who it is they kill, so our information is equal.

Aaand, that's all I've got. It's better than math for a first post though, huh? We all know where that went Not to mention the dead thread would probably break my calculator.

This just screams wolf to me, and you can’t convince me otherwise. It’s like she’s concocted the perfect friendly cute useless but hoping to be helpful post. Wolf! Wolf!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Ang probably wouldn't have made the suggestions on double-lynches or speculations about wolves willing to send one of them to Mandos if he was a wolf. Too attention-grabbing and wrong.

Wolves can attention grab if they want to. I’m just sayin’.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm afraid the loads of different revelations will be one of our major headaches in this game. Remember, it may be we learn nothing from lynching or saving someone who reveal, whatever that person reveals.

Which actually brings me to a point of actually suggesting quite openly something to everyone as howe to play.

Innocents: do not make false revelations!

Sometimes innocents can make false revelations to try to protect someone they think is a gifted - or to some other ends - but in this game that would be foolish. If we could count on no innocents making a false-reveal we could at least narrow down the possibilities with all the influxing revelations that those doing it are either gifteds (and the ones they say they are), cobblers or wolves.

Having not read the rest of the thread, I’m not yet sure what I think about the whole Nog reveal thing, and thus I will say that I could see this either as being a bait for gifteds to reveal so they can kill them or as a plea for no false reveals so that he doesn’t have to counter (thus signifying his giftedness). I’m not ready to go one way or the other yet because....darn, I need to catch up.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Excuse me?!

Sorry, still reading, but that caught my eye and now I'm going to have to challenge Manwe to a duel.

Sneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeerk.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm positively stumped about who to vote. Everyone seems so ambiguous!

This seems too strange as well. “Oh no, look at me, I’m so helpless and don’t know what to do!”

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I approve of Nog and phantom advising the gifteds - at least in the sense that it's typical of them. Yeah the gifteds are usually capable of thinking things through themselves, but saying something just to be on the safe side shouldn't hurt anyone.

Who are you and what have you done with Agan?

Originally Posted by the phantom

Long live the Cobblers?

Yes and no. Sorry, dear, but this isn’t so much in the sense-making category. I understand where you’re coming from, but I don’t think it would work. Wolf kills over cobbler kills, yes, but let’s not plan to keep baddies around just because they’re a lower class of evil.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

My 'Blind Luck' game (from long, long ago) didn't reveal roles, which turned out to be a good thing because I was able to keep the fun going long after the village massacred my wolf team in the first two Days. The point of the game was to see who would be the last person standing, not so much the last team standing, and revealing roles would have messed that up entirely. But anyway, the point is that I didn't reveal roles and the village still successfully took out my wolves one after the other.

Tell me about it, princess. >.<





Would you all be super cross if I said I'd already decided who to vote for? :/

[the phantom]

Okay.... I'm here and trying to catch up!

Just post if there is anything that I need to know about right away or that you wish to ask me. I'll check the new posts every couple minutes.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wolf vibes
Sally - she hasn't been around much, but the little I've seen isn't entirely convincing. Where's the funny all-over-the-place-Sally we see most of the time? This solemnity is ill-befitting and makes me suspicious.

It's called "Sally doesn't have time to mess around". And I've posted what, three (four now) times? All of which were an explicit apology for not having more time to post? Straws, you are grasping at them. I can understand you being suspicious of me to a point, but to put me in your uber-wolf category? Insensible. And evil? :/

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And sally is busy which should explain the absence of the funny sally.

This. Sorry, kids, but I don't have the webs/time to mess around looking for funnies. If I find them by accident, oh yeah, but I can't go hunting.


Back in a moment. One or two more "decent" posts from me and then I really need to go home. I feel as if I've not made the most of my nets time today, and it makes me all sad and guilty. I'll try to hit up a post from my phone later toNight. Vanilwa, try not to be a jerk about my inability to format/quote correctly, yeah?