TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Morsul the Dark]

Hm... Now see the first post from Greenie seemed more just obvious hey this is who we're looking for type of deal but....

think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either.

I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

why Completely? You just said Don't forget him. Seems less of a let's look somewhere else type of deal to me more of a magician's slight of hand.

Also:

Drat. Got caught already.

Again same as Sally hiding in plain sight buys time...
Though since Sally started with that more than likely joking around but keeping watch
Greenie on the other hand seems to use this as a defense...

Inzil-

especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Agreed but I think the bear doesn't know who the wolves are so throwing hem under the bus would be more coincidence than anything else...

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.

Hm... Boro's post may mean nothing It seems the first few posts were 1 am posts which in my book make them nonsensical too late to think posts...
Boro's was uneventful. Lari's post was also rather silly... Sally is a bit more on topic and a bit disturbing.

Boro- although passed out no signs of foulness... yet
Brinn-
Fea -
Greenie- most suspicious at this time.... though still to early to tell
Hakon-
Inzil- Didn't say much... then again only one post
Lari-Pineapples um not suspicious was it olives THEN there'd by something
Loslote-
McCaber-
Morsul- his fate shall be decided b the village
Nerwen- Either throwing out suspicion to coveror to start up the game.. latter I think
Nog-
Pitchwife-
Roa-
sally- may be an agent or just fooling around... too early to tell
Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible
wilwa-


and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Morsul

and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.

In theory, yes. But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here- I'm going to catch up and then start commenting.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is to be hoped, however, that we won't end up killing the Friendly Wolf before he has managed to leave trails to his packmates, or helped in other ways.

Fair point, and one worth bearing in mind.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Once, as I was soundly sleeping,
dreaming dreams of women weeping,
having thoughts of things I'd never thought to think before,
I heard a rapping, barely tapping, tapping on my chamber door.

T'was my mother meant to wake me
and then after show'ring take me
to the county seat where business waited
full of paperwork galore.

And now finally I am here
with a cup of coffee near
and I'm catching up my reading, laying on my bedroom floor.

And I must say, somewhat regretting
that I've noticed that already
Morsul's logic is as faulty as it's been in games before.
I'll show you this, then rhyme some more:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible

As I read, I type quite fast
processing the words I've passed.
And these ones said by Morsul cause my jaw to hit the floor:
You are wrong, and that's for sure.

If the moddess chose the role
from the same hat the past mod stole
the choices from in games the players all had played in times before,
then the odds would be, as you said-

My rhyming's dead;
I'll write this part in prose, I suppose.

Saucie's odds of being a wolf in the last game have zilch to do with his odds of being a wolf in this game. Based on the numbers of this game, his odds are 3/17. I think. Or 4/17. So somewhere hovering around a 1 in 5 chance. Just like everybody else. Random means random.

Speaking of: how many wolves are there? Somebody mentioned a fourth 'good' wolf that wants the innocents to win. But I couldn't find that anywhere in the admin information.

Up my hands fly, all confusion,
like my brain holds a contusion
since a Friendly Wolf is news
I hadn't seen or heard before.
Where was this wolf real wolves deplore?

Originally Posted by Zil

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

Thank you, Zil, for echoing the thoughts I've said before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, then, there may not be a good wolf after all, but then there's only three wolves!

It makes sense much more
But my brow is raised, and I must assure
you that your misread of narration
caused some mental devastation
as I thought you'd all read something not revealed to me before.

Originally Posted by Mira

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Mira Moddess, darling goddess, in the future, fear my wrath
if when you hit submit reply, you forget to check your math.

Now as for rhyming? It is toast
for on conclusion of my post,
since poetry makes me insecure,
I shall quoth the raven, nevermore.