TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[satansaloser2005]

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil so I was avoiding....crap.


(Also, I got really sick over the weekend so I'll probably not be on much if at all toDay. Sorry about that.)

Also, for the moddess. Random.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil so I was avoiding....crap.

True, at least that's how it seems to happen pretty much every game. Your self-consciousness on this point is very suspicious, by the way.


*sigh* I suppose we can look forward to dying in really horrible ways this game?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* I suppose we can look forward to dying in really horrible ways this game?

I'll be disappointed if you don't. Erm, I mean....


Wow, it's quiet. Then again, that's probably good for me; less to read later. Going to bed now and likely won't bother to check until afternoon/evening my time, so until then.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Miramoddess

Awwww come on guys! 20 minutes into Day 1 and there's only one post to amuse your incredibly bored moddess at work.

I should imagine that most of the Living have been asleep and, like me, are only just waking up to the full horror of what has befallen us. In any event, I am here, although only momentarily until later in the Day.

Originally Posted by sally

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil …

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Your self-consciousness on this point is very suspicious, by the way.

… as is your audacious accusation.

So, of those who have posted so far, my main suspects are Boro, Lari, sally and Nerwen. Er …

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler). Which gives us, on pure percentages alone, just under a 30% chance of lynching a Baddie. And nearly a 25% chance of lynching a bad Wolf or the Bear. Of course, lynchings aren’t random, but those are quite good odds nevertheless, so I am fairly optimistic about our chances today.

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Back later.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SPM

The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf.

Isn't posting something that doesn't actually say anything a most classic symptom of lycanthropy? So, Boro is a wolf in any case. And we're one wolf down. Easy, eh?

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

I'll be semi-around for some hours now and more actively in my evening. And, because the DL is something like 7 AM for me, I'll vote around nine hours early.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

[Inziladun]

Ah, the Red Death. Let us take pains it does not hold sway over us all.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not?

I've heard that before, and I've been curious as to whether statistics would prove or disprove that notion.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Well, the best thing that could happen is for us to lynch all those who are gunning for us, but the bear would be an excellent start. It does seem to me they are more difficult to find, especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

Could be either, but I can't necessarily read anything into that post of hers. You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

So, of those who have posted so far, my main suspects are Boro, Lari, sally and Nerwen. Er …

May I remind the village that last time Mr Recently-Fenrissed here claimed to find everyone suspicious, he was, in fact, a wolf?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance.

That depends how good the Bear is. No pressure, by the way, Bear.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

May I remind the village that last time Mr Recently-Fenrissed here claimed to find everyone suspicious, he was, in fact, a wolf?

True. But, as you know, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. Except in horror stories, of course … er ... oh …

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler).

He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

Continues even says keep one wolf alive

After that I had a lot of reading and ended up skimming. That's when I read Nog's post it seemed logical to me. Maybe he could be a wolf tricking me into thinking SPM but I felt it was a sincere post:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spm

In his first post he playfully argues why all the three first posters are wolves and then adds that Nerwen's "audacious accusation" towards Sally (saying she is too self-conscious in remarking about the first posters) is very suspicious.

In his next post he addresses the Bear; "how good you are, no pressure..." (and a smilie). Followed by a kind of humorous self-revealment for Nerwen's remark ("Lightning never strike in the same place twice, except in horror stories, of course... er ..." (and a smilie).

In his third post he introduces the "Friendly-wolf" -interpretation and talks about "ungraciousness" if we killed him.

In his fourth he turns now to Inzil who had questioned him of getting after Nerwen too readily and says Inzil looks suspicious for making that interpretation (like reduplicating his own suspicion on Nerwen).

In his fifth he says the friendly wolf would not turn against us if he was left the last one.

In his sixth he agrees with Nerwen on not willing to kill the friendly wolf before he has gotten a chance of "leaving trails or helped in other ways".

In his seventh he backed down from the "friendly wolf" interpretation (as it started turning more and more obvious it was not the case - I mean how did you read that from there to begin with???).

In his eighth he is sad because the friendly-wolf -stuff would have confused the wolves. Starts suspecting Roa for jumping on his Friendly-wolf -hypotheses and says it would be bad for a wolf to try that (which might be true, but it would be very good for a cobbler... and even better for one to say just this).

In his ninth he defended himself (very reasonably indeed) and went on the suspicion raised by Brinn against Roa, adding to it his own suspicions (Roa suspecting him & Nerwen from early posts).

So what should I say, other than he looks like a cobbler to me?

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?
..

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

He started this this whole thing...

We misunderstood How many wolves because Mira accidently said seven ordos instead of six...

However until SPM said this I simply thought three wolves....

Continues even says keep one wolf alive

He did not start it, he gave a statistic that he thought was correct. The whole thing snowballed...SPAM's first post would have come to nothing if people hadn't jumped on it. It wasn't that ground breaking.

He says it would be a shame to kill the wolf that's on our side. I see nothing wrong, other than the fact that there is no wolf on our side.

EDIT: xed with Morsul

[Morsul the Dark]

Let's keep a wolf alive, sounds like a good idea when the point is to get rid of werewolves? I'm not saying He IS one I'm saying I feel there is enough evidence to place a albeit fairly shallow vote for him.

[satansaloser2005]

++Hakon

The level of shiftiness worries me. That and he should know better than to use meta reasons by now.

Sorry, but I don't have much else than that. Feel free to overrule me if the rest of you innocents wish, but I don't feel up to doing any work right now so this is as good as it gets. Good night, all, and hope to see you all in the Morning!