TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SPM

The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf.

Isn't posting something that doesn't actually say anything a most classic symptom of lycanthropy? So, Boro is a wolf in any case. And we're one wolf down. Easy, eh?

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

I'll be semi-around for some hours now and more actively in my evening. And, because the DL is something like 7 AM for me, I'll vote around nine hours early.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

On a slightly more serious note, I've never played with a Bear before and just wondered if it's possible to ever catch one except by chance. I wouldn't want to be pessimistic, but...

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

[Inziladun]

Ah, the Red Death. Let us take pains it does not hold sway over us all.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not?

I've heard that before, and I've been curious as to whether statistics would prove or disprove that notion.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Well, the best thing that could happen is for us to lynch all those who are gunning for us, but the bear would be an excellent start. It does seem to me they are more difficult to find, especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

Could be either, but I can't necessarily read anything into that post of hers. You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.

[Morsul the Dark]

I should imagine that most of the Living have been asleep and, like me, are only just waking up to the full horror of what has befallen us. In any event, I am here, although only momentarily until later in the Day.

Same here Just got up...

So nothing too suspicious from any of the posters Nerwen's being suspicious of other people, True. However to me unless something else comes up she may simply be trying to get the ball rolling I mean it Is day one not much to go on.

I agree the bear should be a top priority I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill, but only one bear to get rid of his or her kill. Seventeen people... 5 wolf/bears... so 12 Innocents considering we lynch the wrong person. in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...

I'll be around for another hour or so but the next time I'll be around is Much later have work then doing a show.

Now Sally to me again going only on her first post so that may change... seems like the agent I doubt she's a wolf but kind of in your face look at me type of deal. While attempting to hide seems in plain sight is a good strategy people end to write you offf if you're in the open.(It gave me two days)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Another guilty post. The only question here is whether Greenie is the Bear, doing some preliminary gloating, or one of the other baddies trying to fix our attention on the Bear instead of the wolves.

Drat. Got caught already. But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either. When looking for wolves one plays with connections between people, and looking for those connections I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

I'd want to have some suspicions but I don't yet.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either. When looking for wolves one plays with connections between people, and looking for those connections I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

Mostly, killing the first wolf is not a matter of tracing connections, either– and there's only one Bear. We'll just lynch anyone who looks evil, as usual. Including the cobbler. In fact, after last game, make that especially the cobbler.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

But actually, I think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either.

Quite so. Killing the Bear early would be good from the point of view of limiting Nightly kills, but the Bear will be much more difficult to spot. So, we should not lose sight of either enemy.

I wonder whether it might be worth pondering the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear further. From the point of view of both, double kills at Night is good because, the more innocents that die, the better their chance of victory. On the other hand, while the Bear is alive, there is always a reasonable chance that he may kill a Wolf at Night. Accordingly, while I presume that the Wolves don’t need to kill the Bear to win (although it is not entirely clear), they will no doubt want to get him out of the way at some point. In a funny kind of a way, therefore, the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear. The same goes for the Innocents and the Bear, I suppose, since the Bear needs to stay alive to win and is as vulnerable as anyone, I think, to Wolf attacks. What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Inzil

You seem a bit quick to label her 'guilty'.

I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SPM

What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?

Excellent point about the relations between wolves and bear. Hmm. The answer to your question is, of course, that we should use them to our own advantage. Wait... that didn't answer the question, did it? Ah well. At least we know that accusing and possibly helping in the lynch of a baddie doesn't make a player seem innocent (not that it normally does, either, but...) But that is certainly a question that deserves to be given some thought.

I feel oddly like doing a list but there's no point I suppose since a majority hasn't posted yet and I don't have much to say about the ones who have.


EDIT: x-ed with SPM and Morsul

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Good point. I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

I don't see how we can possibly avoid it, except by losing. It is to be hoped, however, that we won't end up killing the Friendly Wolf before he has managed to leave trails to his packmates, or helped in other ways.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I wonder whether it might be worth pondering the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear further. From the point of view of both, double kills at Night is good because, the more innocents that die, the better their chance of victory. On the other hand, while the Bear is alive, there is always a reasonable chance that he may kill a Wolf at Night. Accordingly, while I presume that the Wolves don’t need to kill the Bear to win (although it is not entirely clear), they will no doubt want to get him out of the way at some point. In a funny kind of a way, therefore, the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear. The same goes for the Innocents and the Bear, I suppose, since the Bear needs to stay alive to win and is as vulnerable as anyone, I think, to Wolf attacks. What do people think? Is there any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?

*shrugs* They may end up working to our advantage– whether we can deliberately aid that is another matter.

EDIT:X'd since SPM at #20.

[Morsul the Dark]

Hm... Now see the first post from Greenie seemed more just obvious hey this is who we're looking for type of deal but....

think we shouldn't concentrate solely on the Bear, and yet we shouldn't forget him either.

I guess I at least will forget completely about the Bear.

why Completely? You just said Don't forget him. Seems less of a let's look somewhere else type of deal to me more of a magician's slight of hand.

Also:

Drat. Got caught already.

Again same as Sally hiding in plain sight buys time...
Though since Sally started with that more than likely joking around but keeping watch
Greenie on the other hand seems to use this as a defense...

Inzil-

especially since they'd have no hesitation about doing away with a wolf, which could give the appearance of innocence.

Agreed but I think the bear doesn't know who the wolves are so throwing hem under the bus would be more coincidence than anything else...

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.

Hm... Boro's post may mean nothing It seems the first few posts were 1 am posts which in my book make them nonsensical too late to think posts...
Boro's was uneventful. Lari's post was also rather silly... Sally is a bit more on topic and a bit disturbing.

Boro- although passed out no signs of foulness... yet
Brinn-
Fea -
Greenie- most suspicious at this time.... though still to early to tell
Hakon-
Inzil- Didn't say much... then again only one post
Lari-Pineapples um not suspicious was it olives THEN there'd by something
Loslote-
McCaber-
Morsul- his fate shall be decided b the village
Nerwen- Either throwing out suspicion to coveror to start up the game.. latter I think
Nog-
Pitchwife-
Roa-
sally- may be an agent or just fooling around... too early to tell
Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible
wilwa-


and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Morsul

and while one wolf may be on our side don't we need to eliminate All wolves to win? so Actually there's just slightly more than 1/3 chance of getting a baddie.

In theory, yes. But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Once, as I was soundly sleeping,
dreaming dreams of women weeping,
having thoughts of things I'd never thought to think before,
I heard a rapping, barely tapping, tapping on my chamber door.

T'was my mother meant to wake me
and then after show'ring take me
to the county seat where business waited
full of paperwork galore.

And now finally I am here
with a cup of coffee near
and I'm catching up my reading, laying on my bedroom floor.

And I must say, somewhat regretting
that I've noticed that already
Morsul's logic is as faulty as it's been in games before.
I'll show you this, then rhyme some more:

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Saucepan Man- Hmm... Names from a hat odds are against rewolfing But not impossible

As I read, I type quite fast
processing the words I've passed.
And these ones said by Morsul cause my jaw to hit the floor:
You are wrong, and that's for sure.

If the moddess chose the role
from the same hat the past mod stole
the choices from in games the players all had played in times before,
then the odds would be, as you said-

My rhyming's dead;
I'll write this part in prose, I suppose.

Saucie's odds of being a wolf in the last game have zilch to do with his odds of being a wolf in this game. Based on the numbers of this game, his odds are 3/17. I think. Or 4/17. So somewhere hovering around a 1 in 5 chance. Just like everybody else. Random means random.

Speaking of: how many wolves are there? Somebody mentioned a fourth 'good' wolf that wants the innocents to win. But I couldn't find that anywhere in the admin information.

Up my hands fly, all confusion,
like my brain holds a contusion
since a Friendly Wolf is news
I hadn't seen or heard before.
Where was this wolf real wolves deplore?

Originally Posted by Zil

Have I missed something? Since when is there a 'friendy' wolf?

Thank you, Zil, for echoing the thoughts I've said before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, then, there may not be a good wolf after all, but then there's only three wolves!

It makes sense much more
But my brow is raised, and I must assure
you that your misread of narration
caused some mental devastation
as I thought you'd all read something not revealed to me before.

Originally Posted by Mira

Erm so this one time Mira can't count. There are six ordos. Epic fail on my part. And just to clarify, there are four wolves and a bear and a cobbler. No friendly wolf. Sorry for the confusion.

Mira Moddess, darling goddess, in the future, fear my wrath
if when you hit submit reply, you forget to check your math.

Now as for rhyming? It is toast
for on conclusion of my post,
since poetry makes me insecure,
I shall quoth the raven, nevermore.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...

Am I missing something? I didn't know there was a time limit.

[Hakon]

He arrived at four days because there are two kills a night and one lynch a day. 17 of us total and two die a night and one a day. Assuming we do not kill the bear in that time frame you are talking about 4 lynches and 8 kills at night. There are 12 innocents counting gifteds. I am hoping we will at least get a wolf in that time frame but Morsul is right in theory we have four days well less since the wolves just need to be at equal numbers and then it would become wolves versus bear which would be cool but boring in a way.

[satansaloser2005]

Over four pages. I hate you all. *whimpers* Off to read; back if I can.