TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Miramoddess

Awwww come on guys! 20 minutes into Day 1 and there's only one post to amuse your incredibly bored moddess at work.

I should imagine that most of the Living have been asleep and, like me, are only just waking up to the full horror of what has befallen us. In any event, I am here, although only momentarily until later in the Day.

Originally Posted by sally

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil …

Isn’t there a theory that the first poster is more often a Wolf than not? The question is whether Boro’s first post counts as a first post, given that he didn't actually say anything. If so, then he is clearly a Wolf. If not, then the finger of suspicion points at Lari. Mind you, if one of the first three posters is evil, then a sneaky Wolf would post third. Which means that sally is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Your self-consciousness on this point is very suspicious, by the way.

… as is your audacious accusation.

So, of those who have posted so far, my main suspects are Boro, Lari, sally and Nerwen. Er …

On a more serious note, the Living number seventeen. There are five baddies (three out of four Wolves, on the basis that one of them is on our side, one Bear and one Cobbler). Which gives us, on pure percentages alone, just under a 30% chance of lynching a Baddie. And nearly a 25% chance of lynching a bad Wolf or the Bear. Of course, lynchings aren’t random, but those are quite good odds nevertheless, so I am fairly optimistic about our chances today.

Best thing that could happen to us would be to lynch the Bear, since that will limit the Night kills to one. On the other hand, being solitary hunters, Bears leave far less tracks than Wolves and so are more difficult to hunt down.

Back later.