WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, assuming Rikae was indeed the Hunter, then it looks as if either the wolves felt they could afford to take a risk (i.e. we're doing badly), or they were fairly confident none of them would be picked last Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a careful suggestion then. She was quite definitively picking Gwath as her suspect yesterDay so one could presume he would be her hunt-target as well? So Gwath is an innocent then? It would have been a risky and idiotic move from the mutineers to try Rikae if Gwath was one of them aggressors.

The signs appear to point to a Mutineer Mac and a Conspirator Gwath.
With Rikae's vote for Gwath, it was a reasonable assumption for the mutineers that he would indeed be her pick for the Night as well. She'd been voicing some serious questions about Mac at the end of Day 4, and what better time to take her out than while her attention was focused on a (relative) innocent?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Inzil - I'm still wondering what to make of his "if Lommy isn't an aggressor, they might as well just kill Rikae" of yesterday. My first thought was that it was a cobbler pointing out to the baddies that I was probably bluffing about my pick, since it wouldn't serve my interests to be honest, in he guise of an ordo wondering why the hunter would announce a pick at all... now I'm wondering if it was an ordo's attempt to help me bluff, in spite of the earlier distrust... nah, now I'm spinning far-fetched theories Nogrod-style. Anyway, I'm inclined to think he's either a conspirator or an ordo.

I don't recall saying what she quotes me on at the first part of that, but I'll say now that her second theory about the drama between her and me is correct.
I was initially taken off guard by her reveal, and the first two or three of my questions to her were genuine. After that, though, it was really just a deliberately overblown act to see if anyone would come out of the woodwork and hop on the train. Gwath certainly rose to the challenge.

[Macalaure]

Alright, what do we have now?

Rikae and A Little Green are dead, but innocent.
Nerwen is at least not a mutineer, and so is Eomer, though he's dead, too.
Nogrod, Annu, and McCaber are dead and we don't know what they are.
(I'm ignoring the silenced Mira and Wilwa here.)

Who had more and who had less reason to be afraid of being Rikae's pick? Of course, even a mutineer at risk of being picked by her could still take the risk and kill her, but if we don't ask ourselves this question, then we learn nothing. I prefer the slightly risky assumption to nothing. (And before someone else brings it up I'll say it myself first - yes, this assumption conveniently puts me into the less suspicious box. So lynch me.)

Had reason to suspect being the hunter's pick:
Lommy, Kath, Gwath.

Had not (or not much):
Boromir, Mith, Eonwe, Nogrod, Shasta, Inziladun*, Izzy*

(* were suspected, but more of cobblery than wolfery, which means while Rikae thought them bad, she would probably not pick them)

The fact that the actual pick came from the second group make the assumption thin, but don't forget that the mutineers couldn't know this. My conclusion would be that the mutineer-density is higher in the second group than in the first. Especially if we assume that the mutineers have already been lessened in numbers (higher likelihood of missed kill), I'd have a hard time believing that there's more than one mutineer in the first list. (The one would be Gwath, I'd highly suspect.)

Originally Posted by Lommy

I know Macalaure knew she'd not have the nerve to pick him just yet.

A definite "no" to that. And why do you say that you know it?

Originally Posted by Lommy

-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
LYNCH HIM!

I'm sure this comment will make you even more sure, but for what it's worth: Rikae tested me and concluded that someone else was still more suspicious than me. Why exactly did you reach a different conclusion? You don't explain, you only state. Can you give me a non-vague reason why you are so certain of me? I'm asking this hoping it will make up your mind, because I still think you're innocent (though it's possible you're a cobbler who figured out that I'm not a mutineer and wants to get me lynched now). Boro's innocent (if it really was innocent, of which I'm not really sure) fixation on Nogrod didn't help us one bit either.

Originally Posted by Inzy

I'm pretty well convinced Gwath is not a mutineer. If he was, I don't believe he would have missed the vote yesterDay.

What makes you so convinced of that? Keep in mind that Gwath missed the entire Day yesterDay. Why couldn't he have missed the Night before, too?

Originally Posted by Inzy

The signs appear to point to a Mutineer Mac and a Conspirator Gwath.
With Rikae's vote for Gwath, it was a reasonable assumption for the mutineers that he would indeed be her pick for the Night as well.

Her strong suspicion of Gwath means that he was high on her list of possible picks, but it would be foolish for any mutineer to assume that he was definitely her pick. Also, she could easily have been more suspicious of someone else, but seeing that that someone else had no votes, she kept her vote on her good-enough suspect.

[Boromir88]

Well I don't make any schemes, I was mostly just saying stuff that I was thinking about.~Lommy

That is why you won't get past the "yes but..." , you call it scheming, that is such a negative word. It implies slippery and underhanded tricks. I know I'm innocent (not a wolf nor cobbler), you said you were innocent, and I wanted to see if I could believe you. That's not scheming, that's figuring out which of ye crew I can trust.

That is of course unless he's a wolf who thinks I'm a cobbler, a cobbler who thinks I'm a cobbler or a cobbler who thinks I'm a wolf.

Well now, you could be the wolf who thinks I'm the cobbler, a cobbler who thinks I'm the other, or a cobbler who thinks I'm a wolf. For someone who says she doesn't scheme, you sound capable at being able to sniff possible one's out. I wonder how?

[Boromir88]

Boro's innocent (if it really was innocent, of which I'm not really sure) fixation on Nogrod didn't help us one bit either.~Mac

Let's lynch him today and find out

And can I ask you how I've been fixated on Nogrod? I said yesterday I suspected him, and the day before I was definitely 'fixated' on him..but since he was absent yesterday I pretty much left him alone and went after others. You being one of them.

Why don't you bring up Mith's desire to lynch Nogrod? I mean I find Mith really innocent, but I haven't been the only one interested in seeing Nogrod ghosted. Plus...it seems like some have a fixation on me, jumping on whatever I say and either disregarding it with a single phrase or saying it doesn't make any sense. *cough*Mac*cough*

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And can I ask you how I've been fixated on Nogrod? I said yesterday I suspected him, and the day before I was definitely 'fixated' on him..but since he was absent yesterday I pretty much left him alone and went after others. You being one of them.

True. Still, a lot of your thinking revolved around him (lynching McCaber twice or basing your suspicion of me on his role comes to mind).

Originally Posted by Boro

Why don't you bring up Mith's desire to lynch Nogrod? I mean I find Mith really innocent, but I haven't been the only one interested in seeing Nogrod ghosted. Plus...it seems like some have a fixation on me, jumping on whatever I say and either disregarding it with a single phrase or saying it doesn't make any sense. *cough*Mac*cough*

I'm only jumping on a relatively small percentage of what you say. You just talk so much. Percentage-wise, I commented on much more of Gwath's yesterday's posts than on yours. And as I said before, I'm not yet convinced of what you are. I'm not pursuing your lynch.

[Mithalwen]

Hi, I am here and will resist the distractions as much as possible (I had to watch Jolly Roger Federer play I am afraid ). Um if we are going to rekill anyone today migh tbe the day.... If we haven't hit any mutineers yet then we don't have long beofr the numbers are potentially equalled.

[Rikae]

Oh Mac, this time you can't gloat freely - I can haunt you.

Originally Posted by th' snifflin' one

I'm sure this comment will make you even more sure, but for what it's worth: Rikae tested me and concluded that someone else was still more suspicious than me.

Yeah, someone more suspicious - meaning Gwath - but you were still in my top, oh, four...

As for Nogrod, I figured if the aggressors chose to kill me, it probably was because the suspicions I voiced were wrong, do I killed someone who would have little reason to fear me - still, that's far from certain, especially if (as I fear is the case) all four wolves are alive - they might have thought the los of one was a risk worth taking.

It's possible you're 11 with 6 evil, which would mean you've already lost, if the baddies can but coordinate their efforts (not to be a morbid voice from beyond the grave... in the Barrow Downs, no less... but I just thought I should point that out). Even without the cobblers - if all the wolves are alive, you have one more day. DOOM!!!! REPENT!!!

Oh, and I wanted to say "give my regards to Davy Jones" sometime, and now it doesn't make sense. Curses.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

still, that's far from certain, especially if (as I fear is the case) all four wolves are alive - they might have thought the loss of one was a risk worth taking.

That's what I'm afraid of, and it's why I don't think we can simply rule out Gwath or Mac just because you suspected them.

Or Izzy, for that matter. However, her posting toDay looks both evil (continuing with her plan to throw suspicion around) and non-wolvish (was apparently taken aback to find you lynched). But she could be faking that, or the surprise could have been at finding Nogrod dead instead of someone more likely.

EDIT: Or Lommy– forgot about her.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

especially if (as I fear is the case) all four wolves are alive - they might have thought the los of one was a risk worth taking.

It's possible you're 11 with 6 evil, which would mean you've already lost, if the baddies can but coordinate their efforts

Sadly I do share your pessimism Rikae...

I don't believe Mac and Boro are both innocents. And I doubt they both are mutineers.

Lommy is giving me the creeps right now. She's, well how should one say it, careless or jubilant - and confident? (if all the mutineers are alive she has reason to be jubilant and confident)

And this caught my eye as well looking at the posting of late:

Originally Posted by Inzil

The signs appear to point to a Mutineer Mac and a Conspirator Gwath.

That came right after Lommy had made her cases basically just telling us that Mac is a mutineer and he should be lynched. And Inzil was also quick to name Gwath a co-conspie rather than innocent, which is an interesting decision - although I admit I haven't yet read all that happened in the past two Days and maybe there is reason for that deduction... But somehow her post jumped like being one where happy mutineers just try to make it safe and bring the victory home quite soon.

Okay, getting ghosted kind of lessens one's motivation and inspiration to play full-time as there is no thrills of fighting for one's life and solving the mysteries together with others. And why make a loads of work just to be disregarded by enough many convincing mutineers?

On another, though relating issue, I'm not sure if lynching a ghost is reasonable politics - unless it's a double-lynch. But the double-lynches are generally quite risky as it would require co-ordination of all - well at least those present at the end of the Day. There we might run the risk of just lynching the ghost and missing a possible mutineer (a fellow mutineer might just hang around in the end and vote "wrongly" just by "accident"... and all that - with no knowledge we just can't deduce anything from it etc.).

I'm quite ready to be double-killed but you should also consider at least Greenie. If she bluffs a many things will be different (I tend towards trusting her revelation though as there have been no competing claims and it would be about time for the "real spy" to step forwards if there is one).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm quite ready to be double-killed but you should also consider at least Greenie. If she bluffs a many things will be different (I tend towards trusting her revelation though as there have been no competing claims and it would be about time for the "real spy" to step forwards if there is one).

In other words, it's a waste unless we get a rival claim.

EDIT:X'd with Sally.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And this caught my eye as well looking at the posting of late: That came right after Lommy had made her cases basically just telling us that Mac is a mutineer and he should be lynched. And Inzil was also quick to name Gwath a co-conspie rather than innocent, which is an interesting decision - although I admit I haven't yet read all that happened in the past two Days and maybe there is reason for that deduction... But somehow her post jumped like being one where happy mutineers just try to make it safe and bring the victory home quite soon.

My reasoning for Gwath being a conspirator rather than a mutineer was mainly based on the fact that Rikae had voted for him yesterDay, and if he was a real baddy it would seem to be a bold move, going after Rikae when there appeared to be a good chance she was targeting him as well. Of course, the mutineers wouldn't have known who she targeted, but the fact that Gwath was so suspected by her would seem to make that too much of a risk for a Mutineer Gwath to have taken.