WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

While it can happen to the best of us to miss a kill, how can it be that four people missed it? It indeed indicates that one, probably even two, mutineers are ghosted. McCaber and Annu were lynched, Mira and Wilwa left. Do you think two of them could be mutineers? Of the two deserters, one could easily be (both would be a bit much). I don't think McCaber was a mutineer, so that would mean that Annu perhaps was.

As an afterthought, while missing a kill indeed can happen to everyone, it might be helpful to have an eye on the ones who do not post very frequently.

As well as looking at those who do not post very frequently, we should look at those who have been away (like Nogrod). And this all verges on the edge of what is fair play and what is playing on out-of-game reasons (it would be easy to start checking who has posted on the 'Downs during the Night phase etc).

Besides, it can also be misleading. Imagine I - a rather active player who was online on the 'Downs yesterday - was a mutineer. The deadline happens to be 7am my time. Imagine my fellows are Americans who have their most active hours after I go to bed in the evening. What do I do? Probably send my suggestions on who to kill to my mates before I go to sleep and trust them to send the kill to the mod. They are all so called not-so-frequently posting people and they miss the kill (say, one is dead, one appears a few hours before the DL, sees the last one hasn't posted, sends a PM and leaves it up to them, and they don't turn up at all because of some unexpected hindrances). Now, by your logic, it would easy to say that I'm not likely someone to miss the kill, although it is exactly what happened in this example scenario. So, summa summarum, no use making hasty conclusions.

Originally Posted by Mac

Another thing about the night kill: The most likely pick of Rikae was either truthfully Sally or Gwath. If those two aren't mutineers, then the night choice was awfully easy for them, and it would make it all the more puzzling that the kill was missed.

Originally Posted by Boro

But, I would like to hear Rikae's night selection, because if it was Lommy, then that's not looking good for Lommy.

Excuse me, gentlemen, but just how on earth do you expect the mutineers to know Rikae's pick?

Mac, you expect the mutineers to have reached the same conclusion about Rikae's possible picks and furthermore, you expect your guesses to be correct. Ever heard of a bluffing hunter? You think too simply for me to be comfortable with you. And you assuming the mutineers to think like you looks like your pack had a nice chat last Night.

Boro - what on earth do you think we gain from knowing whom Rikae really hunted? The mutineers didn't know it either. Whether Rikae really hunted me or just threatened to wouldn't have affected their choice of action, because they had no way of knowing whom Rikae hunted. It doesn't incriminate me any more if Rikae really hunted me or not, what matters is that she threatened to. But there's no way a mutineer-me would have known whether she was bluffing or not, or a mutineer-anyone else would have known it. So, in short, the mutineers couldn't have just acted blindly on the assumption that Rikae hunted me, nor could they have chosen to attack or not attack her based on whom she hunted because they didn't know it.

Huh, you two confuse me.


edit: xed with Rikae