WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Brinniel]

Okay, I said I'd look over the Green voters and I did. Who looks most suspicious based only on their vote for A Little Green:

Aganzir: Earlier on she does talk about Green:

Something troubles me in Greenie's last post and I can't put my finger on it.

While something troubles her about Green, she makes no indication of seriously suspecting her until post #226. Her vote broke the tie between Volo and Green, so while the placement of her vote looks better, there were a lot of votes yet to come in. It's possible she made a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Volo: He does suspect Green earlier in the Day, but includes two other suspects in that post:

Now at last to what I think about who the Wolves might be.

(There's a list of my preveous suspicions in post #129.)

Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

This looks very suspicious. Why would she concentrate on morm so much at that time if they weren't Wolves? Seems very out of place. Instead of "what did I do wrong", a "what did my partner do wrong".
Post #123 is on the whole very suspicious:
1. It feels like Green is voting just because she has to vote and not because she really suspects Nerwen, her reason being rather odd to me (Well, then again I don't really understand why Nerwen was lynched in the first place - although lynching Valier would have been no better ).
2. I'm not completely sure about this, but the way Green turns her suspicion at Lommy in the same post as she votes another person is worrying. I've seen many Innocents doing this, so I can't decide if this should be taken into account.

morm: I haven't looked too closely at toDays posts of his as there simply hasn't been enough time, but he is linked to both of my main suspects and that makes me suspect his as well.

At that point, I don't recall that Green was gathering that much suspicion. In a list of suspects, a wolf would easily place a fellow wolf somewhere in that list to mislead everyone else. If Volo is a wolf, he could've easily done that, and if that's so, then Sally and morm are probably innocent. Later on, he debates between Sally and Green and chooses the latter. Now if he's a wolf, that would mean that two wolves were getting the most votes (along with morm). Green was getting the most votes, and in an effort to keep himself safe, he could easily vote for his mate and if she's lynched, hopefully choosing her over morm would divert attention from him the next Day. Still very suspicious to me.

Mac: He does list Green as slightly suspicious early on, but doesn't seriously consider her until the bandwagon's rolling. His vote for her is very safe. Still, I hesitate to suspect Mac because so far his words seem very genuine and I simply don't get any wolfish vibes from him. So in spite of his vote, he still seems innocentish to me.

Might: He doesn't really seem to even mention Green until the end of the Day when he's debating his vote.

I must admit I'm going with the flow here, not necessarily a big suspicion of mine.

I don't really like how he admits he's voting for someone he doesn't suspect only to jump the bandwagon. He should've voted for someone he really thought was suspicious because his vote really didn't matter regardless. Might has so far seemed like a confused innocent to me, but it could all be easily just an act. His vote alone has bumped him into Slightly Suspicious.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta

[Brinniel]

A closer look at Menel (who along with Volo, is a top suspect):

Some quotes that grabbed my attention starting at the end of yesterDay and going into toDay:

His thoughts on Volo:

Originally Posted by Menel

We may have a wolf here, but with the emphasis on "may." If morm is a wolf, Volo probably isn't, as two wolves voting for Valier would be unlikely given last night's events. For the moment I'll just be watching Volo carefully.

He finds Volo suspicious, but simply decides to watch him carefully. This whole theory about if morm's a wolf, then Volo's innocent I don't like. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, it gives him the opportunity to say, "hey, if morm's innocent, then Volo must be guilty." If it is a wolf-on-wolf attack and Volo's lynched and proven guilty, then it could easily put Menel in the clear because he was right about his theory.

Again, I don't like his post in #238 where he debates between morm and Green, and then chooses morm. Still could be a wolf save. I won't quote that post since I already did earlier.

Originally Posted by Menel

First of all, I remind you of the mysterious agreement that I mentioned between A Little Green, mormegil, and Rikae on the idea that Lommy is a wolf. Now that one of these three has been confirmed a wolf, it puts the other two under suspicion.

He mentions dead Rikae as a suspect here and later admits it was an honest mistake (post #319). While that is possible, he could've also purposely made reading mistakes to make him look unobservant and less suspicious.

Originally Posted by Menel

Finally, and this has nothing to do with A Little Green, I observe that Valier and Legate were the two choices for wolf kills. They were also the main suspects of Volo on Day 1. This suggests either a frame attempt or a double bluff, and with suspicions raised yesterday I'd tend to doubt the double-bluff. I suggest looking at Volo's main opponents at this point, plus a little pressure ought to be put on morm.

I can't remember who else mentioned this, but I agree, he's very quick to take notice of this which I find strange.

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and yes, Kuruharan, I forgot about Greenie's defense of morm. It fits the pattern well.

He's way too eager to agree with Kuru here.

Originally Posted by Menel

Anyhow, regardless of what happens, I agree that mormegil has to be lynched, and soon. If a double lynch is what it takes to kill him, I'm willing to go for it.

Okay, I really don't like that comment and it looks very suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and I think that a double-lynch does have a lot of problems with it. I was too eager to lynch morm earlier to consider that. Arranging one intentionally will be problematic, and I suggest we just vote for those we think are guilty.

He takes that comment back, but flip-flopping really doesn't help at this point.

Originally Posted by Menl

Mormegil is still my prime suspect, now more than ever. His frequent agreement with A Little Green and her defense of him, along with the mysterious shift in his playing style, just screams "I'm a wolf!" to me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Morm has had enough said about him already, and I'm planning to vote for him toDay.

He's really on morm's tail. He's so persistant, I would almost say that makes him look less wolfish because his actions do seem a little too bold for a wolf.

Originally Posted by Menel

Though I'm feeling a bit uneasy, as these quotes don't seem to suggest quite as much of a conspiracy as I thought there was. Maybe I'm reading too much into this. However, I don't really have a lot of other leads at this point.

Originally Posted by Menel

Actually, I'm not quite as sure of mormegil now as I was before. I'll take some time in the morning to check out his posts in detail, then put up an analysis. For now, though, I'll stick around to answer questions but I doubt I'll do much more here until after I've slept on it.

But then, suddenly he loses his boldness and changes his mind about morm, second-guessing his suspicions.

I must say, you're just looking furrier and furrier to me, Menel.

[satansaloser2005]

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this hour besides me.

EDIT: x'd with Farael

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this our besides me.

Tehee... we're on the timezone, 3 20 AM here to be precise

[/sillyness]

night y'all

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Farael

Tehee... we're on the timezone, 3 20 AM here to be precise

[/sillyness]

night y'all

hehe niiiiice. I think we need to go to bed. If only I could figure out how to write my blasted paper in my sleep

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Farael

No-one would (or should anyway) use an out-of-game event to further their in-game agenda. Meaning that no-one should (for example) pretend not to notice Rikae's withdrawal to look more innocent.

Not saying anyone should do that, but of course it's still possible. Anyways, I would never dare suspect anyone based only on that assumption. I'm just saying we shouldn't overlook Menel because he seems unobservant and made a mistake.

Originally Posted by Sally

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this our besides me.

Heehee...then you must know that I'm very crazy. I live on EST and it's 4:34am now. I'm still awake for no good reason except WW. Apparently, I don't sleep at night anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Apparently, I don't sleep at night anymore.

If I was mean, I would sarcastically turn that comment into an admission of guilt werewolf-wise, but it's late and I'm too lazy. Besides, I've had my fun of stirring up havoc and getting everyone wondering what the heck I'm doing anyway.

Hey since you don't sleep you wanna finish my Shakespeare homework for me? I need like 6 more pages on the antic disposition by 7:30am central time when I go to work.

[Thinlómien]

I will elaborate on why I believe those three are wolves in a few hours, when I have more time. However, I'd like to make a few short comments.

About every single post by Sally seems very wolvish to me. She does not seem innocent at all and she doesn't even deny being a wolf! I think we should lynch her toDay, but like someone said, let's not concentrate only on her today.

Fea's post #277 seemed a bit too elaborate coming from an innocent's mouth (or keyboard), especially as she posted just 20 minutes after the deadline.

Originally Posted by Farael

However, it just does not add up... Loomy is being extremely clueless, which is rather odd for her, at least the Loomy I knew a while back.

Clueless? Me?

Originally Posted by TM

About Sally, if I were her I would make a post to try and defend and maybe explain my decisions and actions more clearly. Because all the explanations have, at least in my case, only managed to make me more confused and suspicious.

That's precisely what I said yesterDay about wolves not defending themselves...

Originally Posted by morm

Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said.

Allow? How would you have prevented it?

I think I should read through Legate's posts but it qould be quite a massive operation so I'm not very enthusiastic about it. I think it's odd (and somewhat worrysome) how little we've talked about his death. I mean, wolf kills are a huge part of any evidence we can get so we really shouldn't disregard them.

And unless my opinion changes greatly during toDay, I'm ready to risk a Sally+morm double lynch.

EDIT: xed with the early birds Brinn and Sally...

[satansaloser2005]

Early birds? I believe you mean late birds, love. I need to respond to the last few posts, but right now I feel a nap coming on for at least a few minutes. Maybe if I get a chance before I head to work I'll post, it depends on how things are going paper-wise.



And again, I've had my fun and stirred the debate which I wanted stirred. May not make sense now, but it will. So lynch me if you must. Everyone knows there's nothing I can do to prove that I'm an ordo, so why even try? You'll just have to take my word for it, much like the last game, where I made quips and cracks to get reactions, and got them mind you, and got lynched towards the end of the game, only to be revealed as an innocent. Yay for me for having skills to look suspicious. If nothing else, provided that I survive day rounds I can be pretty sure that the wolves won't kill me during the night. I'm too juicy to not have stick around.



Thoughts....trailing....off....need....sleep....ge tting mental pictures of the werewolves playing soccer with Yorick's skull....weird....*zonks*

[Brinniel]

Okay, admittingly I've been waiting up the last several hours to take a shower, but for some stupid reason I still have no hot water, so it looks like I'm going to have to give up and turn in for now.

Just wanted to maked some final input before I go with another innocent/suspicious list:

Leaning Innocent
Mac
Kath
Mormegil

Neutral
Farael
Lommy
Fea
Kuru
Shasta

Slightly Suspicious
Aganzir
Sally

Very Suspicious
Menel
Volo

At this point, it looks like I'll probably be voting Menel or Volo unless something comes up that makes me change my mind. Sally is very very confusing...perhaps she's off the wall from lack of sleep, I don't know. But I still think that if she is a wolf, it's a very risky game she's playing here. I'd rather not lynch her toDay though; I'm just too uncertain about her right now and more confident about my other suspects.

I'll be back to read more posts later in the morning, though I can't guarantee I'll have time to post before class. But I will promise you I will return to vote before deadline.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Early birds? I believe you mean late birds, love.

That was supposed to be sardonic and mean comment, you know...

Originally Posted by Brinn

But I still think that if she is a wolf, it's a very risky game she's playing here.

She's playing a risky and silly game, whether she is innocent (which I doubt) or a wolf...

I just had boooooring physics lesson and the time we weren't watching the Pink Panther (which was sadly about 90% of the lesson), I was thinking about ww, mostly Legate and his death. Now - without going through his posts - I think he might have been believed to be the seer.

All in all, I have a bad feeling I keep aiding the wolves unintentionally. I mean, I was the first one to highlight Valier's seerishly comment that was probably the cause of her death and now I have an uncanny feeling Legate's death might have something to do with my observations as well. (Maybe I should stop talking at all...) I mean, I did raise the issue of he trusting me through the whole game. So maybe he might have been thought to be the seer who had dreamt of me on Night1...? I think that if someone looked through his posts, there might be found other people the wolves might have believed him to have dreamed of. Now, I'm well aware this argument sounds pretty futile without Legate's words about anyone else than me myself (sounds suspiciously convenient, I know) to back up my argument. But I thought I'd mention that as a possibility.

If I have time, I'd be very interested to have a look if this hypothesis of mine holds water at all, but for a while, I think I'm going to concentrate on presenting my case on why I think Greenie, Sally, morm and Fea were the original wolf square (for they surely can't be called a triangle, right? ) ...

EDIT: xed with Aganzeer

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(talking about Menel
He mentions dead Rikae as a suspect here and later admits it was an honest mistake (post #319). While that is possible, he could've also purposely made reading mistakes to make him look unobservant and less suspicious.

X-ed with this post... I just wanted to note that I believe there is a certain degree of "sportsmanship" left in these games... No-one would (or should anyway) use an out-of-game event to further their in-game agenda. Meaning that no-one should (for example) pretend not to notice Rikae's withdrawal to look more innocent. And hey, I made the same mistake 'cos the Admin. thread did not appear bolded when I checked.

Sorry, I just wanted to say that before going to bed, otherwise Brinniel's post is fine by me. Something to chew on for tomorrow (RL... and prolly game-wise as well).

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But then, suddenly he loses his boldness and changes his mind about morm, second-guessing his suspicions.

I must say, you're just looking furrier and furrier to me, Menel.

Brinn, this is another common tactic for wolves. They lay the pressure and make a phony case against somebody and about midday they pull out of it changing their mind so when I am lynched and proved to be innocent they can put on a false show of sadness and say something like "while I felt him guilty the more I looked and thought about it the less I felt like he was. I feel so bad". It's a good attempt at helping them look innocent. They start the bandwagon and let misguided innocents (shasta and others) do the work for them.