WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Kuruharan]

It could well be that the wolves noticed that Sally is a main suspect and use this confusion to keep us only concentrated on this.
-The Might

Except she's the one doing this. If she is a wolf and is doing this as cover...we'll have to kill her sooner or later.

If she's not a wolf...ummm...yeah.

I say we should maybe try to talk about other possible wolves as well.
- The Might

Yeah, what happened to the morm-thwacking I was expecting to engage in today...

Unless of course this is a clever plot to save him...

[The Might]

Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by The Might

Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?

I'm not big on double-lynchings. They are too easy to mess up...and the wolves get to vote too...

And what if they are both innocent after all...

On the other hand...attempting to organize one might flush some people out.

I'm still inclined to say "no" though...

And I have a feeling this might become a topic of heated (and totally beside the point) contention if we tried it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Just to put it out there, I'm totally against multiple lynchings.

They're too easy to screw up, they're too easy to hide behind, they're not very sportsmanlike.

Still, you're right Kuru. It would be interesting to orchestrate one just to see what happens.

With the goal in mind that we not actually kill multipeople, it would be interesting to set up a multiple lynch and see who steps in at the last minute.

But that's a dangerous game to play.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Just to put it out there, I'm totally against multiple lynchings.

They're too easy to screw up, they're too easy to hide behind, they're not very sportsmanlike.

Still, you're right Kuru. It would be interesting to orchestrate one just to see what happens.

With the goal in mind that we not actually kill multipeople, it would be interesting to set up a multiple lynch and see who steps in at the last minute.

But that's a dangerous game to play.

The problem with that is that we'd need all village to agree to it... if just a couple of us chose to vote on our own, then the wolves might very well orchestrate a triple-lynch by voting for a third option that has gotten a vote or two.

There's 14 of us. An ideal case would be seven and seven votes for the two suspects, but that's unlikely to happen. A more realistic scenario would be that we could expect maybe five votes for each, while four other people vote on their own. If we are unlucky, the wolves could possibly arrange it so that we wind up having three people with three votes a piece, rather than two with five/seven.

While that might point at other wolves, it'd leave us with ten people and (worst case possible) three wolves for tomorrow. If they take such a chance and manage not to look too suspicious, it'd doom the village.

And on a much simpler note, the only way a double-lynch would work out is if both lynchees are not only willing to go through with it... but also truthful about it. There's too much at risk, the wolves know it too so even if we try to orchestrate a double lynch, I highly doubt they'll fall for it and show their hand.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I've decided to look at the Volo-voters. It was a pretty short list, including only Shasta and... our good friend mormegil.

Morm has had enough said about him already, and I'm planning to vote for him toDay.

Shasta has been extremely silent. This worries me. We need to hear more. A certain desire to denounce morm seems to be present here, though it's to difficult to tell what that means at this point.

[Meneltarmacil]

Oh, and I think that a double-lynch does have a lot of problems with it. I was too eager to lynch morm earlier to consider that. Arranging one intentionally will be problematic, and I suggest we just vote for those we think are guilty.

[Meneltarmacil]

I've gone back and read Sally's posts, and I was quite surprised at the results.

Sally appears to say nothing good or bad about herself, and hardly leaves anything to follow, except for the fact that she feels very regretful about not being able to participate more. Her recent comment about not even bothering to defend herself is, well, familiar to me, since it's happened to me before. Sally is basically the kind of person who tries desperately to participate and be helpful, but whose desperation eventually will get her lynched for giving the impression of wolfishness. It's happened to my ancestors before.

And yes, I know that people are going to call me a wolf for writing what I just wrote, but I just can't see any evidence for her being either an innocent or a wolf. I know that a wolf could post like her just as easily and the desperation would make sense there as well (my wolf ancestors have been lynched like that before), but I really don't think there's enough substance in her posts to tell one way or another.

Anyhow, regardless of what happens, I agree that mormegil has to be lynched, and soon. If a double lynch is what it takes to kill him, I'm willing to go for it.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Might

Maybe this would be too risky...but what about a morm / Sally double-lynch?
I mean, I am not sure what to think about such an attempt, that is why I'm asking what your opinion is?

Even if you suggested a Menel/Volo double lynch I would say that is foolish at this stage.

Edit: I'm only to this post so far.

[Meneltarmacil]

Morm, the points I mentioned were:

You and Green both agreed that Lommy Looked suspicious.

You and Green both suspected me based on my in-game sarcastic jokes.

[Meneltarmacil]

If it's quotes you want:
Mormegil suspects Lommy

Mormegil suspects Menel

A Little Green suspects Lommy and Menel

Though I'm feeling a bit uneasy, as these quotes don't seem to suggest quite as much of a conspiracy as I thought there was. Maybe I'm reading too much into this. However, I don't really have a lot of other leads at this point.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Morm, the points I mentioned were:

You and Green both agreed that Lommy Looked suspicious.

You and Green both suspected me based on my in-game sarcastic jokes.

So if two people have similar suspects for similar reasons and one turns out to be a wolf the other is by defualt? Specious at best Menel.

Originally Posted by Kuru

As a veteran, I know that people can say things off the cuff that are out of the control of the other wolves and land themselves and others in hot water.

And there are other reasons to be suspicious of you besides just that.

You've been acting a bit odd the whole time and your vote yesterday is questionable in a number of ways.

Fair point but what, I ask was odd about my vote yesterday? I didn't have a lot of time and voted with my gut on somebody who I suspected. I don't follow the odd the whole time concept and I could and would say the same for you and Fea...the only person I play with a lot and isn't acting very different is Lommy which is the one saving grace for her in me not thinking she as guilty looking as my other 3 suspects. Kath I'd like to hear more from you.

[Meneltarmacil]

Don't forget how A Little Green defended you last time. As for whether or not you allowed it, I doubt a senior wolf would want himself to get caught giving adivce to a newbie wolf and be lynched for it.

Then there's the matter of what could be an attempt to frame Volo. Again, you seem to be a likely candidate for that.

[Kath]

Hey all, it's gone 2 am here but I thought I'd pop in with a quick post. I haven't read much of the thread from toDay but what worries me is that some people, I'm mostly looking at Kuru, have popped up and gone 'right, let's lynch morm'. I'm actually a lot more comfortable with morm toDay. I never saw the connection between him and Greenie that many people mentioned and unless Brinniel turns out to be a wolf I doubt morm is one. Had Greenie been innocent I would have been more conviced of morm's possible wolvishness as I wouldn't have put it past him to set up an innocent like that, but as it is I'm becoming more enamoured of this set up idea.

I just really don't like the single-minded pursuit thing. I've done it before I know, and it always seems to end in disaster. Like all that arguing between Rikae and Nerwen on Day 1, it had most of the village convinced that at least one was a wolf and they both turned out to be innocents. The fact that Lommy and morm had the same thing going yesterDay has me thinking they're both innocent, as the back and forth posts felt much as Rikae and Nerwen's did.

Also, no double lynches if we can help it! We are far more likely to lynch two innocents than even one innocent and a wolf. Let's not take our numbers down ourselves.

So, apart from taking morm off the list I'm going to stick with my suspects from yesterDay for now, which leaves me with:

The Might
Brinn

I actually haven't had a proper look at Brinn which I wanted to do (not an analysis, she's done too many posts for that!) but I caught The Might's first post toDay and it seemed a bit overdone.

I might also add Menel to that list of suspects. I know it was Kuru I was complaining about earlier but he feels like a misguided innocent to me. Menel could be too, some of his comments smack of not concentrating on the game a lot, such as his belief that Rikae is still in it, but his arguments are still ... I can't explain it, he's just not fitting right to me.

Also, despite what someone said, I do want to take a look back at what Legate said over the past couple of Days. If the wolves have already tried one set up (this is assuming morm is innocent) there is nothing to say they haven't tried a second.

Back later.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Except she's (Sally) the one doing this. If she is a wolf and is doing this as cover...we'll have to kill her sooner or later.

Yeah, what happened to the morm-thwacking I was expecting to engage in today...

Unless of course this is a clever plot to save him...

It may be a plot to save him, but I'm not too sure as to the "clever" part... after all, Sally herself was the one who said that Morm and her just could NOT be wolves together.

Yeah, right...

[Macalaure]

Three dead people to look at. Sweet.

(this post will be cross-posted with everything on page 8)


A Little Green


Before I start, let me say that I think it's very unlikely that no wolf voted for her. There are 8 votes for her. One, perhaps two must be wolvish.


Lily and the Might

Lily wrote these rather suspect lines about the Might
"His defence does look very feeble to me, but then again that makes him seem pretty innocent if you see my point."
"The Might's self-vote struck me as odd. I would say that it was more the behaviour of a frustrated innocent than of a plotting wolf."

He returned it with this:
"I think it was A Little Green that put it best, I simply wasn't in the mood of again being voted like in the last game only because I act a bit confused and maybe confusing."
He voted her in a safe 7th position. The interaction of Lily and the Might is extremely fishy.


Lily and Sally

"Nerwen and Sally both look pretty innocent at the moment."
This could be the mentioning a fellow wolf as innocent in a minor comment. It could also be nothing.


Lily and Lommy

Lily attacked Lommy consistently and in a way that makes it appear serious. Lommy suspected Lily continuously, too, although she kept her newbieness in mind. This behavior doesn't fit to two wolves, even if they agreed on lynching each other. In the one case, they keep the village's attention on each other way too much, in the other it's not aggressive enough.


Lily and morm

I don't see why people suspect morm so much because of Lily's comments. I can't believe that a wolf-morm would have allowed a newbie-Lily-wolf to defend her as unskillfully as this.


Lily and Volo

She asks him twice to explain a point, which is suspicious. If he was innocent, wouldn't she rather have tried to put Volo's unclear statements in a bad light instead of urging him to explain? There's also:
"Volo is suspicious, but I'd be reluctant to vote for him because I don't have valid arguments against him."
Her late vote means nothing.

Volo, on the other hand, seems to be more serious with his suspicions against Lily. He didn't mention her on day one and then pursued her on day two. He gives her the almost deciding 4th vote. If a wolf tried to actively kill Lily, then Volo fits the description.

Originally Posted by Volo

The other Lily-voters look good too.

I disagree and point out the convenience of this statement.


Lily and Menel

"I found Menel's continuous joking about not being eaten disturbing.
my vote today will most probably be Menel."

Menel finds her suspicious but chooses morm over her for reasons I think are understandable.


Lily and Aganzir

There's the brief interaction about loud/silent at the beginning of day 2. Aganzir only really mentions her once, declaring her suspicious.
As a wolf, she would have had options to vote otherwise and not give Lily the 3rd vote. If she wanted to sacrifice her, she would have treated the suspicion differently, I think.


Lily and Brinn

Brinn seconds one of Lily's question to Volo, which is slightly suspicious. But she finds her suspicious after her analyses, and she was careful to declare somebody suspicious in those.
She gives her the 5th vote, finally sealing her fate.


Lily and Fea

Fea gives a detailed answer about why morm is suspicious. She's the first to vote her, ideal for a wolf-on-wolf. All this would be suspicious, but her answer to Lily gives me a genuine feel.


Farael said Lily is consistently clueless, which is a slight late attempt of defense.

Kath thinks Lily suspicious and gives her the second vote. Very little to go after.


no interaction: Shasta, Kuru


only considering the interaction with Lily:

suspicious: Volo, The Might

a little suspicious: Sally, Farael

neutral: Aganzir, Menel, Fea, Kath, Kuru, Shasta

innocent: Lommy, morm, Brinn


I'll have a look at Legate and Rikae tomorrow. I won't have a lot of time and will be forced to vote early, about 3 hours before the deadline.