WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[satansaloser2005]

Um okay, it was an hour and a half, and no one posted. But I'll make a new post anyway. Quick analysis on everyone (sorry I need to finish, or rather start, my term paper that's due tomorrow that's one reason I'm so skittish). Cut and dried, simple, to the point-ish. There's been so much stuff I need to go through that I'll be posting in class tomorrow, so expect me to vote later in the "day", barring a sudden change of plans like yesterday.



Here's my commentary. For those of you lovely hecklers who wondered what the heck I've been doing, notice that some of the content is based off their responses to my odd posts. I didn't go crazy for nothing, don't worry.

Lommy: Assumed the wolves went after Val because they thought she was the seer. i can see her logic, but it seems like she put it forward a little too soon, a little too quickly, and made slightly too big a deal out of it. leaning toward innocent but that could change easily.

Agan: just don't know. get back to her eventually.

Meneltarmacil: have additional commentary on Menel's potential role in the game, but we'll go with the general label of "think they're innocent". in fact, i'm almost positive. if i'm wrong may the wolves kill me, give me a bath in barbeque sauce, and put me to bed with an apple in my mouth.

Volo: says at some point that the wolves most likely would try to frame Morm with the killing of Val. one of those "if volo's a wolf, morm is too" kind of things. other than that I base my hunch off a lot of the other posts here. in short, volo takes off on a one-post suspicion of me because of how I have suspected Morm (also my general disposition throughout the game, but I believe it to be more about Morm) and seems overall too protective of him.

Mac: no. flipping. idea. i don't know if i'm on something or if he just has no appearance either way, but either way I can't get a read on the guy.

Might: still think Might's innocent. don't quote me on that though. during the great discussion about me, posts requesting that we broaden our scope of investigation, aka pay attention to more people. in my experience the wolves would be perfectly happy to see all the attention on me, although i could see it going either way.

Morm: I've covered this. nuf said. not leaning towards guilty, but rather tripping over it.

Fea: eeks. I don't know. One post strikes me as ordo, the next as wolf, and so on (you know what I mean.) I can't make up my mind.

Brinn: keep wanting to compare her to the last game. blast. need to read over her posts again and form a harder opinion. get back to you on her, but for now leaning innocent. just read a little more, and she also seems to be for the idea of not concentrating too much on lil old me, but focusing on finding other potential furry foes. thus leaning innocent, but on the fence somewhat

Sally: that's me. nuf said.

Farael: in post 180, wanted us to look at everyone, not just morm. fine and dandy, especially since I THINK that's the day we beat the tar out of Greenie (correct me if I'm wrong), but managed (not on her own though) to turn the discussion away from morm. and to me, but that was my own doing.
Oh I remember now! Not to be defensive but....look at post 284. Says hes' voting me unless the seer tells him to do otherwise. First of all, go ahead and vote me. No problem there, just so I cover the whole post. Second of all, the seer's not going to come out and say "oh she's innocent" or "oh she's a wolf," unless I am the seer myself, which isn't likely and even if I was I wouldn't say that. So pretty much you're going to kill me no matter what. Again, I'm willing to make the sacrifice. Prefer not to, but if necessary I'll go for it. Third of all, takes my discussion of Morm and I and completely disregards it. Fair enough as I would not want myself tied to Morm if I was a wolf, but I (even being a bit of a newbie to this particular type of play) would not make it quite so public that I wanted nothing to do with him. To be honest, that was more of a setup for the tie between Volo and Morm, alas the post that never was. To summarize, if Morm does die and is a wolf, Farael wants to make sure that I look bad right along with him.

Kath: kath's not really said a ton, so I'm leaving her be for now. Not that she hasn't said anything interesting, but I'm not looking at her exclusively. leaning guilty, but more worried about other potential wolves at the moment.

Shasta: interesting posts, some stuff to talk about, but I'm not leaning either way.

Kuru: another leaning slightly guilty category not because of the contents of his posts, just because I could see me doing a lot of the same things if I was a wolf.


Okay it's 1:30am almost and I have to be at work before 8am. Still need to write a ten page paper and try to fit sleep into there somewhere. So this is where I leave you for now.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick summary, then. If I had to vote for three people, they would be:

Morm
Farael
Volo

in that order.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm voting a bit early as well.

I'm in complete agreement that Morm needs to be lynched, and soon. I, for one, am not willing to take the chance that this whole situation about Morm is a double-, triple-, or whatever-number-we're-on-now bluff. Besides, even if he does turn out to be innocent (which I'm seriously doubting at the moment), we can't afford to waste another day hemming and hawing about it. This will be the third now, and it seems to me that we're doing nothing by narrowly focusing on Morm other than letting the other wolves slip past.

I will say, though, off-topic, that I hope the Drop is the last wolf we kill. Water's my favorite. <3

++ Mormegil

[Brinniel]

Okay, I said I'd look over the Green voters and I did. Who looks most suspicious based only on their vote for A Little Green:

Aganzir: Earlier on she does talk about Green:

Something troubles me in Greenie's last post and I can't put my finger on it.

While something troubles her about Green, she makes no indication of seriously suspecting her until post #226. Her vote broke the tie between Volo and Green, so while the placement of her vote looks better, there were a lot of votes yet to come in. It's possible she made a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Volo: He does suspect Green earlier in the Day, but includes two other suspects in that post:

Now at last to what I think about who the Wolves might be.

(There's a list of my preveous suspicions in post #129.)

Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

This looks very suspicious. Why would she concentrate on morm so much at that time if they weren't Wolves? Seems very out of place. Instead of "what did I do wrong", a "what did my partner do wrong".
Post #123 is on the whole very suspicious:
1. It feels like Green is voting just because she has to vote and not because she really suspects Nerwen, her reason being rather odd to me (Well, then again I don't really understand why Nerwen was lynched in the first place - although lynching Valier would have been no better ).
2. I'm not completely sure about this, but the way Green turns her suspicion at Lommy in the same post as she votes another person is worrying. I've seen many Innocents doing this, so I can't decide if this should be taken into account.

morm: I haven't looked too closely at toDays posts of his as there simply hasn't been enough time, but he is linked to both of my main suspects and that makes me suspect his as well.

At that point, I don't recall that Green was gathering that much suspicion. In a list of suspects, a wolf would easily place a fellow wolf somewhere in that list to mislead everyone else. If Volo is a wolf, he could've easily done that, and if that's so, then Sally and morm are probably innocent. Later on, he debates between Sally and Green and chooses the latter. Now if he's a wolf, that would mean that two wolves were getting the most votes (along with morm). Green was getting the most votes, and in an effort to keep himself safe, he could easily vote for his mate and if she's lynched, hopefully choosing her over morm would divert attention from him the next Day. Still very suspicious to me.

Mac: He does list Green as slightly suspicious early on, but doesn't seriously consider her until the bandwagon's rolling. His vote for her is very safe. Still, I hesitate to suspect Mac because so far his words seem very genuine and I simply don't get any wolfish vibes from him. So in spite of his vote, he still seems innocentish to me.

Might: He doesn't really seem to even mention Green until the end of the Day when he's debating his vote.

I must admit I'm going with the flow here, not necessarily a big suspicion of mine.

I don't really like how he admits he's voting for someone he doesn't suspect only to jump the bandwagon. He should've voted for someone he really thought was suspicious because his vote really didn't matter regardless. Might has so far seemed like a confused innocent to me, but it could all be easily just an act. His vote alone has bumped him into Slightly Suspicious.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta

[Brinniel]

A closer look at Menel (who along with Volo, is a top suspect):

Some quotes that grabbed my attention starting at the end of yesterDay and going into toDay:

His thoughts on Volo:

Originally Posted by Menel

We may have a wolf here, but with the emphasis on "may." If morm is a wolf, Volo probably isn't, as two wolves voting for Valier would be unlikely given last night's events. For the moment I'll just be watching Volo carefully.

He finds Volo suspicious, but simply decides to watch him carefully. This whole theory about if morm's a wolf, then Volo's innocent I don't like. If morm is lynched and turns out innocent, it gives him the opportunity to say, "hey, if morm's innocent, then Volo must be guilty." If it is a wolf-on-wolf attack and Volo's lynched and proven guilty, then it could easily put Menel in the clear because he was right about his theory.

Again, I don't like his post in #238 where he debates between morm and Green, and then chooses morm. Still could be a wolf save. I won't quote that post since I already did earlier.

Originally Posted by Menel

First of all, I remind you of the mysterious agreement that I mentioned between A Little Green, mormegil, and Rikae on the idea that Lommy is a wolf. Now that one of these three has been confirmed a wolf, it puts the other two under suspicion.

He mentions dead Rikae as a suspect here and later admits it was an honest mistake (post #319). While that is possible, he could've also purposely made reading mistakes to make him look unobservant and less suspicious.

Originally Posted by Menel

Finally, and this has nothing to do with A Little Green, I observe that Valier and Legate were the two choices for wolf kills. They were also the main suspects of Volo on Day 1. This suggests either a frame attempt or a double bluff, and with suspicions raised yesterday I'd tend to doubt the double-bluff. I suggest looking at Volo's main opponents at this point, plus a little pressure ought to be put on morm.

I can't remember who else mentioned this, but I agree, he's very quick to take notice of this which I find strange.

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and yes, Kuruharan, I forgot about Greenie's defense of morm. It fits the pattern well.

He's way too eager to agree with Kuru here.

Originally Posted by Menel

Anyhow, regardless of what happens, I agree that mormegil has to be lynched, and soon. If a double lynch is what it takes to kill him, I'm willing to go for it.

Okay, I really don't like that comment and it looks very suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh, and I think that a double-lynch does have a lot of problems with it. I was too eager to lynch morm earlier to consider that. Arranging one intentionally will be problematic, and I suggest we just vote for those we think are guilty.

He takes that comment back, but flip-flopping really doesn't help at this point.

Originally Posted by Menl

Mormegil is still my prime suspect, now more than ever. His frequent agreement with A Little Green and her defense of him, along with the mysterious shift in his playing style, just screams "I'm a wolf!" to me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Morm has had enough said about him already, and I'm planning to vote for him toDay.

He's really on morm's tail. He's so persistant, I would almost say that makes him look less wolfish because his actions do seem a little too bold for a wolf.

Originally Posted by Menel

Though I'm feeling a bit uneasy, as these quotes don't seem to suggest quite as much of a conspiracy as I thought there was. Maybe I'm reading too much into this. However, I don't really have a lot of other leads at this point.

Originally Posted by Menel

Actually, I'm not quite as sure of mormegil now as I was before. I'll take some time in the morning to check out his posts in detail, then put up an analysis. For now, though, I'll stick around to answer questions but I doubt I'll do much more here until after I've slept on it.

But then, suddenly he loses his boldness and changes his mind about morm, second-guessing his suspicions.

I must say, you're just looking furrier and furrier to me, Menel.

[satansaloser2005]

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this hour besides me.

EDIT: x'd with Farael

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this our besides me.

Tehee... we're on the timezone, 3 20 AM here to be precise

[/sillyness]

night y'all

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Farael

Tehee... we're on the timezone, 3 20 AM here to be precise

[/sillyness]

night y'all

hehe niiiiice. I think we need to go to bed. If only I could figure out how to write my blasted paper in my sleep

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Farael

No-one would (or should anyway) use an out-of-game event to further their in-game agenda. Meaning that no-one should (for example) pretend not to notice Rikae's withdrawal to look more innocent.

Not saying anyone should do that, but of course it's still possible. Anyways, I would never dare suspect anyone based only on that assumption. I'm just saying we shouldn't overlook Menel because he seems unobservant and made a mistake.

Originally Posted by Sally

Not that it has anything to do with....well with anything, but what time is it there Brinn? It's like 3:30am here and I was wondering who else would be crazy enough to be up at this our besides me.

Heehee...then you must know that I'm very crazy. I live on EST and it's 4:34am now. I'm still awake for no good reason except WW. Apparently, I don't sleep at night anymore.

[Thinlómien]

I will elaborate on why I believe those three are wolves in a few hours, when I have more time. However, I'd like to make a few short comments.

About every single post by Sally seems very wolvish to me. She does not seem innocent at all and she doesn't even deny being a wolf! I think we should lynch her toDay, but like someone said, let's not concentrate only on her today.

Fea's post #277 seemed a bit too elaborate coming from an innocent's mouth (or keyboard), especially as she posted just 20 minutes after the deadline.

Originally Posted by Farael

However, it just does not add up... Loomy is being extremely clueless, which is rather odd for her, at least the Loomy I knew a while back.

Clueless? Me?

Originally Posted by TM

About Sally, if I were her I would make a post to try and defend and maybe explain my decisions and actions more clearly. Because all the explanations have, at least in my case, only managed to make me more confused and suspicious.

That's precisely what I said yesterDay about wolves not defending themselves...

Originally Posted by morm

Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said.

Allow? How would you have prevented it?

I think I should read through Legate's posts but it qould be quite a massive operation so I'm not very enthusiastic about it. I think it's odd (and somewhat worrysome) how little we've talked about his death. I mean, wolf kills are a huge part of any evidence we can get so we really shouldn't disregard them.

And unless my opinion changes greatly during toDay, I'm ready to risk a Sally+morm double lynch.

EDIT: xed with the early birds Brinn and Sally...

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(talking about Menel
He mentions dead Rikae as a suspect here and later admits it was an honest mistake (post #319). While that is possible, he could've also purposely made reading mistakes to make him look unobservant and less suspicious.

X-ed with this post... I just wanted to note that I believe there is a certain degree of "sportsmanship" left in these games... No-one would (or should anyway) use an out-of-game event to further their in-game agenda. Meaning that no-one should (for example) pretend not to notice Rikae's withdrawal to look more innocent. And hey, I made the same mistake 'cos the Admin. thread did not appear bolded when I checked.

Sorry, I just wanted to say that before going to bed, otherwise Brinniel's post is fine by me. Something to chew on for tomorrow (RL... and prolly game-wise as well).

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

But then, suddenly he loses his boldness and changes his mind about morm, second-guessing his suspicions.

I must say, you're just looking furrier and furrier to me, Menel.

Brinn, this is another common tactic for wolves. They lay the pressure and make a phony case against somebody and about midday they pull out of it changing their mind so when I am lynched and proved to be innocent they can put on a false show of sadness and say something like "while I felt him guilty the more I looked and thought about it the less I felt like he was. I feel so bad". It's a good attempt at helping them look innocent. They start the bandwagon and let misguided innocents (shasta and others) do the work for them.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Farael: in post 180, wanted us to look at everyone, not just morm. fine and dandy, especially since I THINK that's the day we beat the tar out of Greenie (correct me if I'm wrong), but managed (not on her own though) to turn the discussion away from morm. and to me, but that was my own doing.
Oh I remember now! Not to be defensive but....look at post 284. Says hes' voting me unless the seer tells him to do otherwise. First of all, go ahead and vote me. No problem there, just so I cover the whole post. Second of all, the seer's not going to come out and say "oh she's innocent" or "oh she's a wolf," unless I am the seer myself, which isn't likely and even if I was I wouldn't say that.

Not to sound defensive? you are defending yourself, after explicitly claiming that you would not waste time on such things!

What's going on... an ordo realizing that she was hurting the village, or a wolf scared that people are ready to call her bluff?

So pretty much you're going to kill me no matter what.

It's not up to me (solely, that is). But if I could, yes I would.

Third of all, takes my discussion of Morm and I and completely disregards it.

What discussion is this? the one where you claim that you are an ordo using some neat circular logic? "either Morm or I is a wolf, an ordo wouldn't say this hence I'm an ordo" That's what tipped me that you are furry!!!

Fair enough as I would not want myself tied to Morm if I was a wolf, but I (even being a bit of a newbie to this particular type of play) would not make it quite so public that I wanted nothing to do with him.

Here we go again... "if I was a wolf"... please, I believe I mentioned before that hypotheticals aren't of much use, I could say "if I was the seer I'd dreamt about you and we wouldn't be having this discussion" but I am not the Seer, so does it matter what I would've done if I had been it?

To be honest, that was more of a setup for the tie between Volo and Morm, alas the post that never was. To summarize, if Morm does die and is a wolf, Farael wants to make sure that I look bad right along with him.
.

No... if YOU die and turn out a wolf, it'd make Morm look kinda fishy(er).

Look, if you truly are a newbie who thinks that people will take her for her word on this game I apologise... but it takes less than a full game to learn that, unless proven an ordo beyond doubt no-one trusts what other people claim, unless they support their claims.




And most often, the way to prove someone an ordo (or a wolf) is to lynch them.

But of course, I'm not saying "let's lynch her and see if she was saying the truth"... you've been acting in a disruptive manner for the last two days and added nothing of essence up until your last post.

And even then, it was an "analysis" post that says a lot with little substance. Ok, so now we know, briefly, what you think of others... but I'd much rather see you come up with a good analysis of ONE suspect than a blurb about fifteen of us.

So in conclusion, since only three of the "villagers" want to disrupt the village and muddle discussion, while the rest of us wants to work with what little we've got to find us another wolf, I believe that your behaviour fits more with the wolves than the hobbits.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Farael

Not to sound defensive? you are defending yourself, after explicitly claiming that you would not waste time on such things!

What's going on... an ordo realizing that she was hurting the village, or a wolf scared that people are ready to call her bluff?


It's not up to me (solely, that is). But if I could, yes I would.



What discussion is this? the one where you claim that you are an ordo using some neat circular logic? "either Morm or I is a wolf, an ordo wouldn't say this hence I'm an ordo" That's what tipped me that you are furry!!!



Here we go again... "if I was a wolf"... please, I believe I mentioned before that hypotheticals aren't of much use, I could say "if I was the seer I'd dreamt about you and we wouldn't be having this discussion" but I am not the Seer, so does it matter what I would've done if I had been it?



No... if YOU die and turn out a wolf, it'd make Morm look kinda fishy(er).

Look, if you truly are a newbie who thinks that people will take her for her word on this game I apologise... but it takes less than a full game to learn that, unless proven an ordo beyond doubt no-one trusts what other people claim, unless they support their claims.




And most often, the way to prove someone an ordo (or a wolf) is to lynch them.

But of course, I'm not saying "let's lynch her and see if she was saying the truth"... you've been acting in a disruptive manner for the last two days and added nothing of essence up until your last post.

And even then, it was an "analysis" post that says a lot with little substance. Ok, so now we know, briefly, what you think of others... but I'd much rather see you come up with a good analysis of ONE suspect than a blurb about fifteen of us.

So in conclusion, since only three of the "villagers" want to disrupt the village and muddle discussion, while the rest of us wants to work with what little we've got to find us another wolf, I believe that your behaviour fits more with the wolves than the hobbits.

Farael, I'm not making those points to defend myself, but rather to show how you are indeed acting quite hairy yourself. Note how I didnt' defend myself, I in fact quite gave you permission to lynch me if that's what you feel will most benefit you personally, I just left all possibilities open for consideration. Yet again, a case of words quite twisted.

And to be honest I've played quite a lot of mafia (aka mainstream werewolf) over the years and realize that people aren't to be taken for their word. That's why A: I don't bother to defend myself, unless it is in the realm of clarification or unless I did something truly stupid or obvious, which fortunately hasn't happened to me yet, and B: I make all my posts under the assumption that I am an ordo, at least when I am such. Hypothetically speaking (I will give consideration to this if only momentarily)if I do in fact turn out to be a wolf, you will be able to see quite a lot from my posts based on the connotations I will leave behind about other players. Hypotheticals aren't normally worth my time, but to be fair and balanced I like to inlcude them occasionally.

Lastly, you seem quite a bit defensive yourself. Notice all, if you will, that the part of my post he found most disturbing was the part in which I discuss his own actions in the game? Nervous are we, perhaps, that you've left a bit too much of a trail, light and easy to misinterpret it may be? Thank you for your post, Farael, as I think you've helped me clean up my suspect list a little bit. You are now tied with Morm for first place in the hairy villager competition.