TIG CXVII: DEAD Thread: By the Waters of Tarn Aeluin

[Loslote]

Well. Hello, friends. I had hoped to do a bit better my first time as Ranger!

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The other potentially interesting thing to look at is the snippet of information we were given at the end of yesterDay: that at least one wolf received votes yesterDay. Given that I'm officially not a wolf, that leaves one or more wolves among Morsul, Pitch, Huin, Sally and Lottie. It's not a massive revelation given that that's literally half the village, but unless something really dramatic happens toDay, I'd suggest we pick our vote from among those five.

We are now down to Morsul, Pitch, and Sally. Could be any one of them, they're all suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That said, Lottie has been unusually touchy over being suspected, especially toDay but she exhibited some signs of it already yesterDay (I can't remember exactly what this was, but she started talking about self-preservation when she'd got one vote and no one else seemed very suspicious of her). This makes me think possible Gifted as well as possible wolf, so I might want to give her a pass toDay. Besides, the village might kill her anyway.

I make for a terrible Gifted, because I know for a fact that I'm always going to be suspected, and I've been the easy lynch too many times to *not* get flustered and defensive when I'm Gifted.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sadly that's probably true. I do agree with you about Lottie too. If she survives both toDay and tomorrow Night, she's definitely a wolf.

Well...I didn't.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

*Sigh* I was hoping I would be targeted, but I understand why I wasn't.

Yes...I protected Boro last Night thinking that if he wasn't a wolf, either he or I would likely be targeted. It was either going to be the "morning glory" I hinted at in my first post or inevitable defeat. Guess which one I lucked into!

[A Little Green]

Oh well. It's good to be right about something at least - though in this instance I'd have preferred to be wrong. Welcome, Lottie!

Originally Posted by Lottie

I make for a terrible Gifted, because I know for a fact that I'm always going to be suspected, and I've been the easy lynch too many times to *not* get flustered and defensive when I'm Gifted.

Understandable. Anyway, not sure if it's any better than what I tend to do as a Gifted, which is to hide too carefully. I've been lynched as "slippery" when a Ranger, and killed as a "no-trace kill" on Night 2 as a Seer. (I'm not kidding. The wolves had no idea I was the Seer. )

On the bright side, looks like Form has managed to convey our list of three potential wolves to the village! At the moment it looks like they might go for Sally. Based on my reread last Night, my best guess is still that either Pitch or Sally is a wolf but probably not both, and same for Pitch and Lommy. I actually hope they go for Pitch toDay because I find him a bit more suspicious than Sally, but it doesn't look like it's going that way so far. I'm actually torn on whether Sally's reaction to potentially being on the chopping block toDay is frustrated innocent or frustrated wolf who thinks they're being suspected for the wrong reasons. I have virtually no read on Morsul, and his early Sally vote is annoying but I guess it makes sense from his point of view whether he's innocent or not.

Like I said earlier, I have something of a busy day today. I'll be around sporadically for the next couple of hours (when nothing usually happens anyway), then back only a few hours before DL. I really, really hope the Seer has bagged us a wolf, or at least has something that will narrow down our choices because I don't like the odds at the moment.

[Huinesoron]

Hey Lottie, welcome to the Dead, sorry to see you here. At the very least, your death protected the Seer, and that could be invaluable.

Looking back at the Things We Know:

a) As you say, Morsul, Sally, and Pitch contains one or more wolves.

But more importantly:

c) With you as the Group B Gifted, the Seer is either Legate , Lommy, Soriman, or Kath.

If anyone OTHER than those four claims Seer, GhostForm will know they are lying and point them out as a wolf.

So hoping for a Pitch or Sally Seer-claim.

Who did you protect the previous Night, Lottie?

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huin

c) With you as the Group B Gifted, the Seer is either Legate , Lommy, Soriman, or Kath.

If anyone OTHER than those four claims Seer, GhostForm will know they are lying and point them out as a wolf.

So hoping for a Pitch or Sally Seer-claim.

This is very true! I'll be interested to see which of them it is. I don't think Sally will try counter-revealing - she's already posted, and just said she's innocent and shouldn't be lynched. A fake Seer reveal after that wouldn't look very convincing because the real Seer would have no reason not to reveal immediately. Pitch might, which would be entertaining.

Worst case scenario, we get two Seer reveals out of those four. After all, there could technically be one or two wolves among them, too - and in that case, Form couldn't help distinguish between who's the real Seer and who isn't. (I'm aware I'm catastrophising in advance. I probably shouldn't. )

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Worst case scenario, we get two Seer reveals out of those four. After all, there could technically be one or two wolves among them, too - and in that case, Form couldn't help distinguish between who's the real Seer and who isn't. (I'm aware I'm catastrophising in advance. I probably shouldn't. )

Worst case is that Soriman or Kath is the Seer and doesn't show up until dead late, after one of the other three has claimed and swung the vote.

hS

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huin

Worst case is that Soriman or Kath is the Seer and doesn't show up until dead late, after one of the other three has claimed and swung the vote.

Other than that - Morsul's logic is off. His "strategy" of voting Sally early to force the wolves' hand (?) only makes sense if Sally is a wolf. If she isn't, the wolves will have an easy time piling on the votes. Since we know Morsul can't be the Seer who knows Sally's alignment for sure, I'm led to conclude that Morsul is either a wolf or a really overconfident ordo. Also, his early vote is fishy given that he himself said he's expecting a Seer reveal toDay. If he is, why on earth wouldn't he wait to hear what the Seer has to say before voting?

My problem is, all three of our prospective wolves (Sally, Morsul, and Pitch) look suspicious individually, but not really together. Or at least, neither of the other two seem like likely pairings with Sally. Pitch/Morsul is a possibility - Morsul does immediately pursue Sally without stopping to even consider Pitch. And after all, they can sort of afford to be brazen toDay; if they lynch an innocent they win immediately, and even if one of them gets lynched toDay, they'll still be in a decent position toMorrow.

Also, Lommy is either genuinely confused or keeping up her "poor confused ordo" routine from the Day before. She does say this though -

Originally Posted by Lommy

Not a fan of Morsul's plans, for reasons that I don't feel confident expressing in public.

I'm not sure what she is referring to here. Is she the Seer who hasn't done the math yet, or does she think Morsul might be the Seer? Or is this wolf code for something? Or does she mean she's not confident talking about it because she's confused?

That said, I'm starting to fear we're dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Pitch, Kath and Legate, comfortably watching from the sidelines as the village slaughters itself.

[Huinesoron]

Boro #278: is this a shadow-Seer claim? He uses the word 'StEER' six times over two paragraphs, along with phrases like "For toDay, Legate perhaps it is a comfort to you that my steering is done", and "Sometimes you must brave the rapids and risk losing folk with a true-heart in them", which certainly could be an acknowledgement that he pushed for my lynch without a wolf read on me.

... but we know he's /not/ the Seer, because per the Night 3 Tidbit we know Lottie is the only Gifted who's received votes.

It's vague enough to be deniable, but I think BoroWolf just gave himself away. Hopefully Form catches it!

hS