TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Boro - seems Level headed though not sure I quite understand the Lottie vote. However I do think it might’ve sparked a panic vote.
Huinesoron- Slight suspicion from the Lottie save but I guess agressive is their go to? I literally don’t remember anyone’s playing style.
Kath early vote still feels safe. But not wolffish just... safe.
Legate- need to reread I honestly haven’t looked too thoroughly at their posts.
Lommy- same as Legate.
Loslote- fair explanation. Not sure I accept it but it seems sincere enough. Moving to suspicious but not definitely wolffish.
Morsul hey it’s me. I’m innocent. Moving on
Pitch- seems pretty sensible throughout.
Sally definitely needs to post more.
Soriman- newbie pass I feel a new wolf would be more panicky?

Top suspects in order

Lottie
Sally
Huin
Kath

Least suspicious

Boro
Pitch

How is it possible that you have no impression at all on two of the more prolific posters in this game (Legate and Lommy)? Also, you had some very strong suspicions against Huin yesterday, and all you have now is "slight suspicion from the Lottie save"? You suspect Sally and Kath but have basically nothing to put by their names in your list? This list seems totally out of the blue and wishy-washy to me. And I'm really concerned by you deciding Boro and Pitch are both "sensible" and not at all suspicious with zero further discussion. I don't like that you wave away so many people (who have spoken a lot!) as having made no impression and lump other people in "seems sensible and therefore innocent". It reads to me as a wolf who is trying not to build strong ties to other wolves, but wants to either a) establish a loose wolf-on-wolf suspicion for future deniability or b) subtly sway public opinion in favor of a packmate. I feel like I always suspect Morsul, so I might be reading into this too far, but I really get the heebie jeebies off of this post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

How is it possible that you have no impression at all on two of the more prolific posters in this game (Legate and Lommy)? Also, you had some very strong suspicions against Huin yesterday, and all you have now is "slight suspicion from the Lottie save"? You suspect Sally and Kath but have basically nothing to put by their names in your list? This list seems totally out of the blue and wishy-washy to me. And I'm really concerned by you deciding Boro and Pitch are both "sensible" and not at all suspicious with zero further discussion. I don't like that you wave away so many people (who have spoken a lot!) as having made no impression and lump other people in "seems sensible and therefore innocent". It reads to me as a wolf who is trying not to build strong ties to other wolves, but wants to either a) establish a loose wolf-on-wolf suspicion for future deniability or b) subtly sway public opinion in favor of a packmate. I feel like I always suspect Morsul, so I might be reading into this too far, but I really get the heebie jeebies off of this post.

A good chunk of my Huin suspicion yesterday was reactionary in retrospect.

And yes prolific.(Leg and Lom) They post a lot and long posts. If you want some truth I skim a lot. So longer posts become white noise.

I dedicated my first post to Sally but I’ll recap she doesn’t post a lot and gave no vote leaving literally zero info which is an easy way to avoid suspicion.

I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.

Sensible Boro and Pitchyes they’ve seemed level in a way that doesn’t give me bad vibes.

I suppose wishy washy is fair but since I have no special knowledge of who is innocent and who isn’t I can’t really give more solid opinions forth.

As for out of nowhere? Opinions based on day 1z

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

As for out of nowhere? Opinions based on day 1z

You say that, but you changed several of those opinions without acknowledging that in your list post. You can see where that comes off as odd for those of us who remember what those stated opinions were yesterDay! Your admitting that you backed off on your Day 1 Huin suspicion helps a lot with that impression, but any time someone has a significant opinion change overNight, that's going to ping radars - did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? Were you part of a conversation that changed how you're thinking about the game and you didn't quite realize we wouldn't have had that context? Or did you just get a good night's sleep and were able to look back with a clearer head? I really appreciate you clarifying - your clarification sounded more like an ordo who had just overreacted yesterDay and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? ... and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

Oh I think we both know I’m not disciplined enough for that.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry I couldn't catch up yesterDay; work has been eating me alive.

Speaking of eaten alive, why Form? My egocentric guess is that it was done to throw suspicion my way, but the joke is on you, wolves! I can be suspicious based solely upon my schedule, it seems.

Back shortly with a little listy. Fair warning, tomorrow will be busy for me as well, and I'm working late, but I'll be on mobile with thoughts (and a vote!) later in the Day.

[satansaloser2005]

Boro being phantom-esque with his scheming toDay makes me feel good about him. Something about it feels genuine, and while I've been wrong about him before (don't hurt me, my prince!) I think my radar is correctly calibrated here.

I have the same gut feeling about Pitch, after his reaction to my (non)vote yesterDay. Unless he does something nasty, I think I trust him.

I'm always suspicious of Morsul because he is, somewhat like myself, a loose cannon. I'm not getting feelings one way or the other on him yet, so I'll leave him be for at least tonight and will revisit in the morning.

Speaking of Morsul, kind of, Lottie seems to be picking a fight with him. Rather, picking a suspicion with him. I don't necessarily disagree with what Pop is saying, but it seems more aggressive than she might be as an ordo. Pinging my radar again, this time the wolfy kind.

I get no read on Kath, which is normally safe, but again, I'll have to revisit later.

Other non-reads include Hui, Sori, and Lommy, although in her case, I'm suspicious of my lack of suspicion.

Last but not least, Legate is always evil and must die. I jest. I have no read on him either, but I'm sure that will rapidly change once he wakes up and posts some more.


So to put it in a quicker format....

Would currently vote: Lottie (for aggression), Lommy (gut instinct)
No idea: Hui, Sori, Legate
Would currently not vote: Boro, Pitch, Morsul, Kath

[satansaloser2005]

Welp, that double post (now triple, sorry) means it's time for me to go to bed. Hopefully our European friends will have a lot to say during my night and I'll wake up to some posts to play with. Until then, nighty night!

[Thinlómien]

Just popping in to say that today is a terrible day to have a Day for me - I have a big deadline at work and I'm seeing friends in the evening. But I'll try to make a comment post on my lunch/coffee break(s) and I'll be around for the last few hours before the DL (might stay up until the DL since it's Friday).

As for the recent events -

The wolves killed Form?? Why? I think he only grumbled about Day1s and people not participating? Maybe a safe no trace kill? I'll see if I have time to have a better look at his posts, but my first reaction to these news is confusion.

And you guys lynched Greenie after I went to sleep??? You come into my house and lynch my sister?! When she didn't do anything suspicious?? Dishonour on you, dishonour on your cow! Seriously though, I am quite baffled by this too, as Greenie seemed her normal innocent to me yesterDay, and she's not the type of player who usually gets lynched on Day1. (Yeah, I don't think it's fair some people gravitate towards getting lynched early regardless of their role, and some don't, but it's a thing. Someone like Greenie getting lynched on Day1 without a clear reason - I mean I might be biased because I didn't suspect her - makes me raise my eyebrows a little.) I will try to look at the lynch too.

[Huinesoron]

Just noticed this from earlier toDay (emphasis mine):

Originally Posted by Boromir88

...I didn't mean "giving direction to the ghosts" (as in the person that is selected to return as a ghost) but "giving direction to the dead players on what person they should vote for today as a way of giving the living information."

Um... what information?! They're a pair of ordos! The only information they could have is 1) their own beliefs and 2) some arbitrary piece of data from the Mods, selected from a list we've never seen; it would be literally impossible for us to gain information on that from a single vote. The fact that apparently you looked at that and went 'hmm, I bet people are going to try and construct a scheme to utilise this valuable resource' is just... like, did you forget that you didn't manage to kill the Seer, Borowolf?

With that in mind, I took a look at this:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That's an oddly specific and seems too narrow a net you're casting in your vote-analysis Legate. I agree with the conclusion that you really can't say there was a "bandwagon" with any of the votes yesterday and I also like Day 1s where there is a good spread of who receives votes. A true Day 1 bandwagon, in our small band would have given us little in analyzing Day 1 votes.

I happily accepted the 'narrow net' comment at face value on my first readover, but that's the point of a good wolf misrepresentation: it's close enough to true that people will remember the misdirect better than what it's purportedly summarising. In fact, looking at Legate's post #124, he not only discusses me and Lommy as 'second voters', but also highlights Pitch's vote as "sinister... potentially throwaway", and highlights "the one visibly throwaway" vote as... Boro, noting that it "raises my alertness when it comes to Boro".

So Boro's comment, which reductively summarises Legate's "net" as catching just me and Lommy, doesn't just ignore his comments on Boro - it strongly implies that they didn't exist, and looks very much like a wolfish attempt to memory-hole the suspicion.

The fact that this has now led into a self-titled Legate-hS "conspiracy theory" - didn't Pitch have one of those yesterDay? - does nothing to take away from that impression. (And yes, "if I were to believe in conspiracy theories" is another wonderful way for a wolf!Boro to put an idea out there without quite claiming to believe it... deniability, always deniability.)

hS

[Thinlómien]

I have 15 minutes, so I'm going to look at Form's 9 posts:

#5, #44, #48, #52, #58 are mostly grumbling about Day1's. He was perhaps a little baited into this by Boro, and later, by yours truly, AND last by Hui. #52 also includes a joke (I presume) suspicion of me because I'm not finding his Day1 grumbling suspicious (anymore).

#61 argues for Hui's innocence while acknowledging he might be making a terrible mistake. This makes Hui look a bit better to me - I guess the wolves could have interpreted this post as seer!Form defending his known innocent? (I mean obviously Wolfesoron could have also picked Form as a no trace kill, thinking that would make him look good, but that's getting a little convoluted. If Form's death has anything to do with Hui, it's more likely that he's innocent.)

#78 ranks people based on how much they've contributed so far, saying:

I'm probably going to vote "too quiet."

Leans towards Sally, saying:

On the basis of this very quick list, I would likely aim for either Sally or Kath under this rubric and on the basis of nothing more than gut and the ill-digested remnant's of last year's game, I would lean Sally.

Which, I suppose, is kind of an honour. If I may refer to events of the First Age, time was that folks like Morm or Saucepan would be lynched Day 1 nearly every game "just to make sure" early. So... you're welcome, Sally?

Now this doesn't look like seerish suspicion to me, but whoever said it looks so unseerish maybe Sallywolf thought Formseer was trying to masquarade his suspicion of her as random while it was actually dream-based. Possible, but I'm not sure Sally of all people would be this paranoid as a wolf. She seems more happy go lucky and reckless usually. But yeah, also echoing whoever said that Form's death is one more reason to hope for more presence from Sally toDay. I'm sure I'm not the only one concerned about her flying under the radar, even if she has good RL reasons for her silence.

#84 speculates about a Sally/Lottie wolf combo, but discards his own suspicion

#93, vote post, quoted in full:

The deadline is coming up and we don't have a definitive bandwaggon yet... but Hui and Greenie are frontrunners. I don't particularly suspect either, which doesn't help deciding if you should save either. If I wait any longer, a vote for the Lurkers is even worse than a vote now, so...

++Sally

This makes me think the wolves didn't think he was a seer who dreamed of an innocent Hui, unless you apply the same kind of "masquerading your seer dream as casual and lumping your dream target with another player in order to further hide it" logic that I said about a Sallywolf dream earlier. Anyway the wolves couldn't have thought he dreamed of both wolf-Sally and innocent-Hui, anyway.

Conclusions: ...yeah, not much to conclude. Maybe I'm a little more concerned about Sally and a little less concerned about Hui, but I don't think Form was very likely killed as a potential seer based on what he said about other players. I think it was more likely a no trace kill (with the side effect of implicating an innocent Sally? would the wolves make a no trace kill that actually implicates one of their own?) or because Form pinged the wolves' gifted radar for some reason I can't see.


edit: xed with Hui