TIG CXVII: GAME Thread:

[Morsul the Dark]

Been about a half hour so I don’t feel too bad double posting. Of all the Greenie votes Lotties strikes the others chord she specifically says she’d rather vote Pitch or myself but then chooses between Huin and Greenie. Don’t get me wrong I get wanting to stay in the game but is this ordo wanting to keep playing or Wolf self preservation?

Also the toss up slightly puts Huin into a tiny bit of suspicion because could’ve been saving a pack mate. But would she put her neck that far out for a pack mate on day 1?

Edit: Xed Boro

[Loslote]

One quick thought about the Form kill, and then I'll be around more in an hour or so. Form was very explicit about voting based on who was posting most actively, which means Sally and Soriman by default. That seems important to me: it was a "by default" vote, it could have been anyone, those two just happened to have posted least. The wolves might have seen that as a Seer making sure no one thought their vote was based on a dream in the event of their death - if you don't leave a clear trail, at least you don't leave a false one. And who except the Seer cares about not leaving a false trail?

On the other hand, if Sally is a wolf, it would be very hard for a Seer who had dreamed of her to push her, given her limited participation. The wolves might have seen Form's "vote the lurkers" strategy as him reaching trying to find a reason, any reason, to suspect Sally, and hoped that by killing him early, they could prevent him from ever coming out and saying his results. After all, "vote the lurkers" isn't crystal clear evidence of a dream, so they might be hoping to get away with it without implicating Sally so much so that she gets lynched.

Which scenario do I think more likely? Probably the first, but out of caution regarding the second, I would really like to see more from Sally toDay, and I'll be keeping a close eye on her, as well as on how people talk about this kill.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Been about a half hour so I don’t feel too bad double posting. Of all the Greenie votes Lotties strikes the others chord she specifically says she’d rather vote Pitch or myself but then chooses between Huin and Greenie. Don’t get me wrong I get wanting to stay in the game but is this ordo wanting to keep playing or Wolf self preservation?

Also the toss up slightly puts Huin into a tiny bit of suspicion because could’ve been saving a pack mate. But would she put her neck that far out for a pack mate on day 1?

I suspected Greenie more than I suspected Huin. First to reach the tie wins it, and I knew there were very few people left to vote (myself, Pitch, and Soriman and Sally, who were unlikely to vote at all). I wasn't very afraid for my own life in this game, because I didn't think Sally or Soriman would vote for me, but you never know. Also, I didn't know what Pitch was going to do - I had zero clue what he was doing all Day yesterDay. I had a preference, was pretty sure my vote would be the deciding one if it came in before Pitch's, and I trust myself (knowing I'm innocent) more than I trust Pitch (whose alignment is unknown, and whose behavior worried me).

[Morsul the Dark]

Boro - seems Level headed though not sure I quite understand the Lottie vote. However I do think it might’ve sparked a panic vote.
Huinesoron- Slight suspicion from the Lottie save but I guess agressive is their go to? I literally don’t remember anyone’s playing style.
Kath early vote still feels safe. But not wolffish just... safe.
Legate- need to reread I honestly haven’t looked too thoroughly at their posts.
Lommy- same as Legate.
Loslote- fair explanation. Not sure I accept it but it seems sincere enough. Moving to suspicious but not definitely wolffish.
Morsul hey it’s me. I’m innocent. Moving on
Pitch- seems pretty sensible throughout.
Sally definitely needs to post more.
Soriman- newbie pass I feel a new wolf would be more panicky?

Top suspects in order

Lottie
Sally
Huin
Kath

Least suspicious

Boro
Pitch

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Boro - seems Level headed though not sure I quite understand the Lottie vote. However I do think it might’ve sparked a panic vote.
Huinesoron- Slight suspicion from the Lottie save but I guess agressive is their go to? I literally don’t remember anyone’s playing style.
Kath early vote still feels safe. But not wolffish just... safe.
Legate- need to reread I honestly haven’t looked too thoroughly at their posts.
Lommy- same as Legate.
Loslote- fair explanation. Not sure I accept it but it seems sincere enough. Moving to suspicious but not definitely wolffish.
Morsul hey it’s me. I’m innocent. Moving on
Pitch- seems pretty sensible throughout.
Sally definitely needs to post more.
Soriman- newbie pass I feel a new wolf would be more panicky?

Top suspects in order

Lottie
Sally
Huin
Kath

Least suspicious

Boro
Pitch

How is it possible that you have no impression at all on two of the more prolific posters in this game (Legate and Lommy)? Also, you had some very strong suspicions against Huin yesterday, and all you have now is "slight suspicion from the Lottie save"? You suspect Sally and Kath but have basically nothing to put by their names in your list? This list seems totally out of the blue and wishy-washy to me. And I'm really concerned by you deciding Boro and Pitch are both "sensible" and not at all suspicious with zero further discussion. I don't like that you wave away so many people (who have spoken a lot!) as having made no impression and lump other people in "seems sensible and therefore innocent". It reads to me as a wolf who is trying not to build strong ties to other wolves, but wants to either a) establish a loose wolf-on-wolf suspicion for future deniability or b) subtly sway public opinion in favor of a packmate. I feel like I always suspect Morsul, so I might be reading into this too far, but I really get the heebie jeebies off of this post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

How is it possible that you have no impression at all on two of the more prolific posters in this game (Legate and Lommy)? Also, you had some very strong suspicions against Huin yesterday, and all you have now is "slight suspicion from the Lottie save"? You suspect Sally and Kath but have basically nothing to put by their names in your list? This list seems totally out of the blue and wishy-washy to me. And I'm really concerned by you deciding Boro and Pitch are both "sensible" and not at all suspicious with zero further discussion. I don't like that you wave away so many people (who have spoken a lot!) as having made no impression and lump other people in "seems sensible and therefore innocent". It reads to me as a wolf who is trying not to build strong ties to other wolves, but wants to either a) establish a loose wolf-on-wolf suspicion for future deniability or b) subtly sway public opinion in favor of a packmate. I feel like I always suspect Morsul, so I might be reading into this too far, but I really get the heebie jeebies off of this post.

A good chunk of my Huin suspicion yesterday was reactionary in retrospect.

And yes prolific.(Leg and Lom) They post a lot and long posts. If you want some truth I skim a lot. So longer posts become white noise.

I dedicated my first post to Sally but I’ll recap she doesn’t post a lot and gave no vote leaving literally zero info which is an easy way to avoid suspicion.

I’ve been consistent on Kath I think her early vote is convenient for a wolf.

Sensible Boro and Pitchyes they’ve seemed level in a way that doesn’t give me bad vibes.

I suppose wishy washy is fair but since I have no special knowledge of who is innocent and who isn’t I can’t really give more solid opinions forth.

As for out of nowhere? Opinions based on day 1z

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

As for out of nowhere? Opinions based on day 1z

You say that, but you changed several of those opinions without acknowledging that in your list post. You can see where that comes off as odd for those of us who remember what those stated opinions were yesterDay! Your admitting that you backed off on your Day 1 Huin suspicion helps a lot with that impression, but any time someone has a significant opinion change overNight, that's going to ping radars - did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? Were you part of a conversation that changed how you're thinking about the game and you didn't quite realize we wouldn't have had that context? Or did you just get a good night's sleep and were able to look back with a clearer head? I really appreciate you clarifying - your clarification sounded more like an ordo who had just overreacted yesterDay and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

did you and a packmate decide to make a different play? ... and less like a sinister, wolfish conspiracy, which is what I was fearing.

Oh I think we both know I’m not disciplined enough for that.

[Boromir88]

Kath > Morsul
Greenie > Pitch
Morsul > hS
Lommy > hS [2]
Legate > Greenie
Huinesoron > Greenie [2]
Form > Sally
Boro > Lottie
Lottie > Greenie [3]
Pitch > hS [3]

No vote: sally, Soriman
[Italics for confirmed innocents]

Instead of looking at Form's vote here, because I think Lottie's point is a sound argument here:

Originally Posted by Lottie

One quick thought about the Form kill, and then I'll be around more in an hour or so. Form was very explicit about voting based on who was posting most actively, which means Sally and Soriman by default. That seems important to me: it was a "by default" vote, it could have been anyone, those two just happened to have posted least.

I want to look at Greenie's vote, because she's also now a confirmed innocent. Now she voted for Pitch, and Pitch ended up being the 3rd vote for Huey, which is actually a vote that didn't make make any difference. Greenie was the first to 3, so in the event of a tie, Pitch's vote is a safe one, knowing Greenie would be the one lynched. At that time sally declared ++No Vote, and you couldn't be sure what Soriman was going to do, but he had indicated he wouldn't vote for anyone.

So, Pitch's vote for Huey looks like a safe throw away.

Greenie's vote for Pitch and her explanation #56:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm not confident about this one, but it's 2 hours past bedtime for me and I can't stick around any longer. Basically, Pitch suddenly turning to suspect Lommy right after she started suspecting him, while carefully not mentioning any connection between the two, is arguably the dodgiest thing I've seen toDay. Lommy's interpretation of his Hui/Legate speculation as potential stumbling wolf-logic doesn't make him look better, either. It's flimsy, but less so than anything else I've got.

I'm not comfortable voting for Morsul because he does act more like a frustrated ordo at the moment, and if indeed innocent, would make an entirely too convenient Day 1 bandwagon. I may, however, want to revisit the subject with a fresher brain toMorrow if I'm still here.

With the hindsight bias of Greenie's role, this wouldn't tip off anyone in the pack that Greenie already knew Pitch's role. It's very much reasoned "Pitch did the dodgiest thing of the day in my opinion, suddenly turning to suspect Lommy." Her comment about Morsul could be taken possible seer with "I may want to revisit Morsul tomorrow if I'm still here."

So I'll have to do a Greenie post-alysis as well, with Legate, Huey and Lottie voting for her. Those 3 plus Pitch's vote and sally and Soriman's no votes are a nice list of 6 people to look into.

Edit: Crossed with Morsul and adding the names of who I'm quoting into the quote box, so it's easier to identify who said what.