Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

I always find it interesting when people analyze early Night kills with the thought that the wolves' chosen victim was a suspected seer who dreamed of one of them. It is extremely lucky when a seer actually dreams of a wolf on Night 1 and it doesn't happen often. I'd imagine the wolves are going to be looking for the seer, but this early in the game, they'd probably more likely look for someone who is hinting a player's innocence. If I were to guess, the wolves picked Lottie because they thought she was a seer who dreamt of Hui.

Originally Posted by BG

I'm honestly thinking that Lottie was lynched because the Wolves think she's a) too helpful, b) too vocal about Wolf strategy for their comfort (which we would need to look at), or c) they didn't know who to vote for so voted for the person most likely to be a Villager. Or there's something else I'm overlooking. I'm interested in hearing what you guys think.

I find your whole reasoning here to be very confusing. Not only you leave out the possibility of Lottie getting killed for being a suspected seer (most likely scenario to me), but you say one reason that they might've chosen her was because she was most likely a villager? That doesn't make any sense. Why would the wolves purposely choose some they suspect is an ordinary villager when there are three gifteds out there?

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

Funny since you brought it up, wasn't your vote a throwaway too?

Yeah, maybe you can call mine a bit of a throwaway, but I didn't really care to vote for any of the options on the table. And I honestly thought that there were more people left to vote (I forget this is a smaller village compared to last game).

Originally Posted by Mac

Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Not me! I usually at most just scribble handwritten notes when I play. There may have been a game or few in the past where I tracked quotes from players in a word documents, but never spreadsheets. I deal enough with spreadsheets at work...y'all are crazy!

I see Formy is now using statistics/math to analyze posts. Blegh!