Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, all we need is a fourth one and I think we have the entire pack.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.

I was going to say that there is no such thing as an information-free D1, or at least if it seems so now it will certainly not be looking back from toMorrow, but forgot about it because it didn't seem so important and also forgot to remove the quote.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

Me too.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid.

The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This is probably flavored by having played a lot of WW, too. To me, "big moves" are when you take control of the game, whether for a brief moment or for a Day or two. A Gifted reveal (real or fake), a known innocent taking control and steering the village for as long as they can stay alive, a wolf attacking a packmate in a way that is so obviously evil that the attention swings to to the wolf jumping in.

Okay, thank you. Makes sense.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The p-word is kind of loaded after last game, but to use another one, this feels like a rather premature counter-suspicion. Prophylactic also comes to mind. Any other words with p?

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

hS

[A Little Green]

Looks like a lot of debate on whether or not we should lynch the NW or not. ?? I mean, sure, would be nice to leave the NW for last so their ability doesn't come into play. But I agree with Pitch and Nilp, since there's no way of identifying the NW before they're killed this is pretty much theoretical.

Huin is definitely a man on a mission (I love Rikae's choice of words!). So far I disagree with Kath and think this probing and poking makes him lean more innocent than not - last game, when he was a wolf, he felt more cautious somehow and less eager to poke at people for reactions. On the other hand, his theory of how Lottie and Kath are plotting to get him killed made me raise an eyebrow - though last time I suspected someone for being paranoid it was four innocent people in a row

Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

He is doing a lot of pushing, but I think he had already voiced more opinions about other players than most others at the time. I could see a Kathwolf laying groundwork for an easy D1 lynch, but frustratingly, there's an equally likely scenario of innocent Kath trying to get the ball rolling on what little we have to go on with at this stage.

Lommy makes a point about Nilp's "I'm a nasty carnivore" -comment looking like a double bluff, and I do know what she means - this could be a Nilpwolf using his own tropes and mannerisms as a cover and exaggerating a bit, trusting his reputation for being chaotic and suicidal on D1 to give him a pass. Or could be innocent Nilp excited to be back. I'm flip-flopping myself into a corner here

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hui

Prophylactic actually sums up my thought process when deciding whether to post it. I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.


That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]

[Thinlómien]

I would laugh if Kath and Hui were co-wolves again, but I think they both have a bit different vibe from the last game (Kath is more straightforward/carefree, Hui less cautious/diplomatic) which makes me feel better about both of them.

[Thinlómien]

Seems like their usual innocent self - Rikae, Greenie, Nogrod

Seems unlike recent evil self - Hui, Kath

Vague good feeling - Blind Guardian, Lottie

Under my radar so far - Legate, Mac, Pitch, Brinn

Did they say anything?? - Shasta, Sally

Made me raise an eyebrow - Nilp, Form


Also I caught myself thinking "Inziladun is really flying under my radar in this game, I don't remember a single post he made" and then I realised maybe because he's not playing...

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

A wolf plot made of one person suspecting you and another posting a general speculation unrelated to you. I'd say that's very much in the eyes of the beholder. I could even say construed.

That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed. What I don't agree with is you implying Lottie in the (nonexistent) plot.
[Note to posterity: soft wolf-on-wolf between Kath and Hui + attempt to drag Lottie into it which fizzled out subsequently?]

I didn't mean to imply Lottie could be involved - I meant to state it! I was looking at two people who had already done things I found sketchy (Kath's sudden pivot back to on-topic when poked, Lottie's 'let's not kill the NW' thing), and saw what could be them acting in concert.

Lottie's helpful explanation of what 'bold' means is why I'm not still worried about that; it shows she wasn't saying what I thought she was. I'm figuring Kath was reading Lottie the way she intended, so there's not really a 'plot' any more, just an isolated suspicion.

Make sense?

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The voting as of the moment:

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
----------NOTHING FOLLOWS----------

And there's two hours before the deadline, if I can do time zones. I mean, this is a swell result for me, really.

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm finally here! First off, a disclaimer: the deadline is 1am our time, I'm back to work full time and sadly my job isn't one where you can play ww, so I'll be around a lot less than last game. Maybe it's not an entirely bad thing...

~*~

Originally Posted by Sally

Please don't bandwagon on me while I'm gone again, eh, Lommy?

Maybe you'll turn out to be a wolf this time.

Originally Posted by Form

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

Yeah but, if people don't even *try* to make Day1s useful, they certainly won't be!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?

I'm gonna start with the assumption that the wolves wouldn't go out of their way to bus the NW but if the wagon starts rolling they'll be happy to jump on it.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

Nilp, I love it that you're back *sends kisses* but this is just. too bold. Like, this doesn't read as anything but a double bluff. To quote Pitchwife: *PING!*

Originally Posted by Mac

Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!

Lmao.

Originally Posted by Nilp

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

Hear, hear.

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away?

Sally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

[Nogrod]

I meant just to check whether my gut feeling - that hS feels a bit over-eager to sound like one who has only the best of the village in mind - had actually any basis in the posting. And well, the number of these quotes kind of got a little out of hand, but I think they do confirm the feeling.

Originally Posted by hS

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

Originally Posted by hS

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Originally Posted by hS

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

Originally Posted by hS

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by hS

I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

Originally Posted by hS

I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

It does raise my eyebrows a little. So if I'd have to vote right now, I'd consider voting for hS. I do hope we get something better than that though to base our votes.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

You'd never do that yourself, would you?
TBF, Hui does tend to overdo the 'responsible innocent' routine even when he is one, so I wouldn't hold that alone against him.



Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

[Thinlómien]

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

edit: xed with S&S

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:




edit: xed with S&S

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

[Rikae]

Pitch - could be cobblerish indeed, not really getting wolfish - casting light cobbler-suspicion on Form, discourages votes for Nilp
Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience
Form - keeping an eye on him, but his explanations when pressed do tend to look more innocent
Nilp - asks to be lynched, which would make me think he was at the very least not gifted and not too risky a lynch, except, being Nilp, he'd kind of have to do this even if he was. Painted himself into a corner.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You'd never do that yourself, would you?

Me? Oh, never!