Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

Not just initially!

This the rare Day where I'm at work (so no toddler), but nothing's going on at work, so I have time (and I'm arguably bored).

I agree with everything I've said so far, even of that sounds tautological--and even if you assert it isn't all self-consistent. I still think Day 1 is basically fumbling around pointlessly in the dark and its value is only to be seen after the fact. While I certainly do NOT recommend archive trawling as a prerequsite for playing, doing so would suggest this is not my first time expressing this opinion.

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively." Should we wait until we're all in the Dead Thread? Is there a "too soon" period we have to wait out? I'm quite capable of going back to in-character posts, but I think if we limit ourselves strictly to those, we're going exacerbate my Day 1 Distaste.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively."

Not bad, just, in this case, not really useful. Wolves will sacrifice the NW, but also won't if they're a cautious pack (what's a cautious pack? Is there a consistent group of players who would always be a cautious pack?), but also will sacrifice a different wolf, but it's all pointless anyway, let's discuss how pointless it all is ... which is why I say "talking to talk". To be fair, everyone's doing that to some extent on Day 1, at least until someone waves a red flag.

[Rikae]

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

[Rikae]

Or rather, several in a row, I see he's mixing it up.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll let you be my Kremlinologist, Rikae.

[Loslote]

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible. Think Boro last game - focusing on a few loud players so there aren't ties to the packmates, soft (or not so soft!) claiming Seer to try to draw out the real Seer, turning on a packmate so blatantly that the attention swings their way (also Boro, years ago - I was the packmate in question, and I skated by on that play for a long time!). So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lottie

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

Someone mentioned this further up and I think went round to the same conclusion. Early on, apart from knowing who the other wolves are, the NW would be stabbing in the dark in terms of stopping Gifted abilities. They might get lucky, but it would be hard for them to know for sure anyway, as they don't find out the role of the person they haunt.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Loslote

if we find someone that we think is the NW

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

[Macalaure]

Late to the party... let's see what you've all been up to and who's a wolf and who's not.

*puts on thinking hat*

*reads thread*

*takes off thinking hat*

Well, that was disappointing. You lot need to start doing suspicious things!

...or maybe this thing is broken.

Originally Posted by Huin

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

How do you know they aren't? Some packs go crazy with plans and traps and whatnots, some packs just sit back, watch the mayhem, and pray to Arugal that their neck won't be on the line. Once there are dead people we might be able to tell.

Wait, Arugal? Wrong fandom... apologies.

Originally Posted by Huin

how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

But... didn't you just... *gesticulates*

...ah well.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible.

The NW ability is nice and all, but they'd be insane to sacrifice their numbers for it - and since Boro is dead, that's unlikely.

Also, Nog being wrong about the NW rule means he's either an innocent who didn't read the rules or a wolf who wants us to think he's an innocent who didn't read the rules. So that actually narrows it down quite neatly.

Originally Posted by Nog

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more.

He's reading the rules, he's checking them twice, he's gonna find out who's naughty or nice.

Originally Posted by Form

I agree with everything I've said so far

Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hello, all. I'm at work right now, but will be able to dig into this in a few hours.

[Kath]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

Oh? What an interesting catch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing.

I don't really agree with this - using your powers with not much to go on is still better than not having them to use at all, IMO. You could always get lucky.