Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

[Rikae]

Or rather, several in a row, I see he's mixing it up.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll let you be my Kremlinologist, Rikae.

[Loslote]

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible. Think Boro last game - focusing on a few loud players so there aren't ties to the packmates, soft (or not so soft!) claiming Seer to try to draw out the real Seer, turning on a packmate so blatantly that the attention swings their way (also Boro, years ago - I was the packmate in question, and I skated by on that play for a long time!). So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lottie

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

Someone mentioned this further up and I think went round to the same conclusion. Early on, apart from knowing who the other wolves are, the NW would be stabbing in the dark in terms of stopping Gifted abilities. They might get lucky, but it would be hard for them to know for sure anyway, as they don't find out the role of the person they haunt.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Loslote

if we find someone that we think is the NW

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

I do like this, I was operating under the same conclusion re: ideals.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

Is "fish leather" a thing from past games?

[Macalaure]

Late to the party... let's see what you've all been up to and who's a wolf and who's not.

*puts on thinking hat*

*reads thread*

*takes off thinking hat*

Well, that was disappointing. You lot need to start doing suspicious things!

...or maybe this thing is broken.

Originally Posted by Huin

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

How do you know they aren't? Some packs go crazy with plans and traps and whatnots, some packs just sit back, watch the mayhem, and pray to Arugal that their neck won't be on the line. Once there are dead people we might be able to tell.

Wait, Arugal? Wrong fandom... apologies.

Originally Posted by Huin

how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

But... didn't you just... *gesticulates*

...ah well.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible.

The NW ability is nice and all, but they'd be insane to sacrifice their numbers for it - and since Boro is dead, that's unlikely.

Also, Nog being wrong about the NW rule means he's either an innocent who didn't read the rules or a wolf who wants us to think he's an innocent who didn't read the rules. So that actually narrows it down quite neatly.

Originally Posted by Nog

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more.

He's reading the rules, he's checking them twice, he's gonna find out who's naughty or nice.

Originally Posted by Form

I agree with everything I've said so far

Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hello, all. I'm at work right now, but will be able to dig into this in a few hours.

[Kath]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion.

[Boromir88]

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.

Thank you, Your Wiliness!

[Pitchwife]

Now this is more like it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?

A valid question, with the barefoot season approaching, but if I see someone hanging out a business sign I'll stop to inspect the goods, and Formy's post about talking amicably to the wolves seemed to do just that. The question is, was he looking to sell or buy?

Originally Posted by Kath

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

I don't get at all what Kath is talking about here, 'the wolf becoming the Medium'. The Medium is one of the living, aren't they, so how would a lynched wolf become one?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?

Well, like others have said, it depends on the makeup of the pack and also on who the NW is, how good they are at gifted-spotting - say, if it's Shasta for example it could be good idea to activate his power early. Anyway, the pack would have less to lose by losing the NW than by losing anybody else, so wolf-on-Nightmare-wolfing could be a valid tactic for them to fall back on in case of need.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

I don't really see what that wolves would have to gain from that which they wouldn't gain by sacrificing the NW, but thanks for continuing to make helpful suggestions!

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

If we find someone that we think is a wolf, should we lynch them or not? Really? If the Seer could identify them, maybe that could be a consideration, depending on how far in the game we are, how many wolves are still alive, but since they can't you answered your own question. Only a dead wolf is a good wolf.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion.

+- Cobbler voting

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

This is what I was thinking of too, but I would add +-Sally because she's sick and we don't need 'rona AND Werewolves.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Kath

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

Now this is interesting. I've said that I found Formendacil's response more innocent than wolfy, that you looked like a wolf (inasmuch as anyone can on Day One), and that I had no clue on Nilp. I don't think I offered a conclusion on Nog, but his reaction seemed pretty genuine, and as someone (Nilp?) said, a wolf probably wouldn't misremember the rules relating to wolves.

So I feel like I've said quite a lot. If you mean I've not contributed to the discussion of what we think the wolves will do, what the NW specifically will do, and what the rules for the Medium are (not to mention what a future game might look like), you're right, I haven't - because I don't think those are useful for finding wolves. As I recall, the Day One Game Mechanics Discussion last time was started by the Cobbler.

Checking before posting, I see Pitch has quoted me but not said anything about it... o.O And has flagged Lottie's 'keep the NW alive' concept, which raised pretty much the same eyebrow for me.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

+- Cobbler voting

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

Originally Posted by Loslote

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible.

Originally Posted by Kath

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Okay, all we need is a fourth one and I think we have the entire pack.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Oh lawks, I forgot you were in this game...

G55's not. She just couldn't resist

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Reading back over a few posts in more detail, I flagged this not-exchange:

I was already Day-One-Suspicious of both of them, so this stood out: Kath's description of me could well be paraphrased as 'loud and bold', but she didn't connect it to Lottie's comment. Kind of feels like they're laying the ground for Lottie to 'realise' I meet her description (or an innocent third party to do so), and suddenly I'm 'widely suspected'.

...or I might be paranoid. It would be a bit bold (sorry) for Day One wolves, wouldn't it?

hS

Yeah, I gotta say, this is pretty paranoid. I wouldn't describe you as playing "loud and bold", at least not in the way that I meant it. You're more of a "persistent pusher" than a "big bold moves" player, in my opinion. You definitely are eye-catching, but I've thought you came across on the innocent side so far toDay.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

Oh? What an interesting catch.