Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

Well, it's certainly not a binary choice in actual fact: but as two ends of a continuum, things lean on Day 1 far more to the the good as nothing end.

That's not saying no one should post or try--but if we catch a Wolf, let's not pretend that it was anything other than dumb luck! And if it isn't luck, it's far more likely to be manipulation by the Wolves, who are the only ones who know anyone's role, than cleverness by the Village.

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Re: suicidal Nightmare Wolf

Both normal and dream-haunting baddies would of course operate better with more information about the village (i.e., the Gifteds) but while normal Wolves can miss on a Gifted and still advance their goal (of eliminating the village), the nightlife lycan needs the information a lot more because using their power on an Ordo is a waste.

If I were a Nightmare Wolf, I basically have two possible avenues of action:

1. Get killed as soon as possible to have more chances to use my powers, and hopefully to reduce any trace of connexion with my fellow carnivores. But I'd lose access to their analyses that would be give me better chance to uses my abilities on the right targets.
2. Just play like a normal canine, have a chance to influence the village by DAY and talk to my fellows at NIGHT, so if I do end up on the chopping block I have a better chance of ruining some Gifted's NIGHT. On the other hand, I might end up leaving behind all sorts of clues to my fellows, but that's also a problem in normal games.

So, ignoring the risks one would incur in any other game anyway, the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

hS

(Crossed with Nog and Nilp)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

That's a good one! You're proving against your explicit points by your deeds Form. I think you are already doing something useful.

Originally Posted by Suicidal Tendencies

the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

That's a negative.

Werewolves (4)- choose 1 person every night to kill until the number of villagers equals their own. They can communicate privately during the NIGHT phase. Living wolves can not privately communicate with dead wolves, or vice versa. [The Rules, emphasis mine]

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilp

That's a negative.

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Add in some curmudgeonly grumbling about having tonsuffer through it, and you've basically got my Day 1 feelings.

Re: Nilp's NW analysis, I think that overall, the stronger option, as he lays it out, is the second--but what isn't being mentioned in it is whether what Nog just referred to a triple-bluffing element would cancel that out. In other words, the value to zigging when expected to zag.

I think the risk/reward value to a Day 1 NW kill is higher than any other permutation for the wolves, so I don't really expect it--but even that could tell us something about the personality of the wolves (once we get deep enough in the game to get a sense of the personalities still standing).

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

In the spirit of later Days... could be a non-wolf getting confused by the bit in the rules saying that all dead wolves can communicate OR a Wolf laying down some hopeful misdirection. On the basis of no info at all, I lean to toward the former.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly. (Not sure if Nog's was a present or past tense 'read'; I assumed the former at first, but it seems you might be assuming the latter.) If he didn't, it would be nice to hear why not.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

(People are right; you've got great cover if you're a wolf.)

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by hS

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly.

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more. Well, I see...

Originally Posted by The Rules

-Other dead werewolves can communicate privately with the NW during the NIGHT phase to help determine a victim (or that there is no victim that night)

Just somehow managed to miss / ignore that quite important word "dead" from there... twice (when I read the rules before the game and when checking Nilp's claim).

[Rikae]

Seems like a strange discussion to be having on the heels of a game where a seer, a cobbler, and a seer-hinting wolf were all leaving intentional trails on Day 1 and the latter two attracted attention by doing so (albeit confused attention).

Is it ever scientific? Is it scientific late in the game when people track down wolves by cross-referenckng voter, death & suspicion lists? Context still matters. There's still a qualitative element to it, looking at posts, tone, hints, interactions. All that's happening from day 1: it's impossible to post without leaving a trail of some kind, and not posting long enough is evidence, too. Sounds silly, but without day 1 there is no day 2. You'd have a kill with no leads, essentially, just a smaller village with nothing to go on.

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Kath

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion.

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

Oh it would have to have proper consequences. e.g. a self vote would lead to a randomised person from the self-voters side being killed that Day.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

(Crossed with Kath continuing to do so...)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent?

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

(Also, 'not permanent'? A Dead player gets one vote towards giving one Living player two votes. Death isn't a 'you're out go away', but it's still pretty permanent.)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

[Kath]

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

EDIT: And she has, shifting topics completely from her last 2 posts. Allowing for the usual Day One qualifiers, she certainly could be a wolf antsy about having a finger pointed at her.

As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart.

hS

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, folks. I woke up super sick this morning. I have a conference call coming up shortly, so I'll be around for a wee bit, but then I'm going to try to sleep this off. I hope to be back before DL, but I can't promise.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. [...] As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart.

I've seen, ah, challenges to my WW, um, lifestyle over the years.

(To be fair, I did ask for a metagame refresher, since this is different from other games I've played, and did mull over the one game quirk my brain could wrap itself around. I won't poke beehives hoping for responses, because I used to be one of those empty beehives myself. )

[Rikae]

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

Not just initially!

This the rare Day where I'm at work (so no toddler), but nothing's going on at work, so I have time (and I'm arguably bored).

I agree with everything I've said so far, even of that sounds tautological--and even if you assert it isn't all self-consistent. I still think Day 1 is basically fumbling around pointlessly in the dark and its value is only to be seen after the fact. While I certainly do NOT recommend archive trawling as a prerequsite for playing, doing so would suggest this is not my first time expressing this opinion.

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively." Should we wait until we're all in the Dead Thread? Is there a "too soon" period we have to wait out? I'm quite capable of going back to in-character posts, but I think if we limit ourselves strictly to those, we're going exacerbate my Day 1 Distaste.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively."

Not bad, just, in this case, not really useful. Wolves will sacrifice the NW, but also won't if they're a cautious pack (what's a cautious pack? Is there a consistent group of players who would always be a cautious pack?), but also will sacrifice a different wolf, but it's all pointless anyway, let's discuss how pointless it all is ... which is why I say "talking to talk". To be fair, everyone's doing that to some extent on Day 1, at least until someone waves a red flag.

[Rikae]

Speaking of which, someone refresh my memory: does Nilp always have boots on his first several posts?

[Rikae]

Or rather, several in a row, I see he's mixing it up.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll let you be my Kremlinologist, Rikae.

[Loslote]

With the Nightmare Wolf, I would expect them to play as loud and bold as possible. Think Boro last game - focusing on a few loud players so there aren't ties to the packmates, soft (or not so soft!) claiming Seer to try to draw out the real Seer, turning on a packmate so blatantly that the attention swings their way (also Boro, years ago - I was the packmate in question, and I skated by on that play for a long time!). So basically what I'm saying is, if someone strikes me as sounding particularly Boro-like, I'm gonna suspect them of being the NW.

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lottie

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

Someone mentioned this further up and I think went round to the same conclusion. Early on, apart from knowing who the other wolves are, the NW would be stabbing in the dark in terms of stopping Gifted abilities. They might get lucky, but it would be hard for them to know for sure anyway, as they don't find out the role of the person they haunt.

[Macalaure]

Late to the party... let's see what you've all been up to and who's a wolf and who's not.

*puts on thinking hat*

*reads thread*

*takes off thinking hat*

Well, that was disappointing. You lot need to start doing suspicious things!

...or maybe this thing is broken.

Originally Posted by Huin

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

How do you know they aren't? Some packs go crazy with plans and traps and whatnots, some packs just sit back, watch the mayhem, and pray to Arugal that their neck won't be on the line. Once there are dead people we might be able to tell.

Wait, Arugal? Wrong fandom... apologies.

Originally Posted by Huin

how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

But... didn't you just... *gesticulates*

...ah well.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible.

The NW ability is nice and all, but they'd be insane to sacrifice their numbers for it - and since Boro is dead, that's unlikely.

Also, Nog being wrong about the NW rule means he's either an innocent who didn't read the rules or a wolf who wants us to think he's an innocent who didn't read the rules. So that actually narrows it down quite neatly.

Originally Posted by Nog

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more.

He's reading the rules, he's checking them twice, he's gonna find out who's naughty or nice.

Originally Posted by Form

I agree with everything I've said so far

Confirmed: Form is the anti-Lommy!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Loslote

if we find someone that we think is the NW

The relevant modifier is 'we think'. We won't know until they're dead. (I checked to see if even the Seer could see the difference, but it seems nothing in the rulebook clarifies that.)

(Boromod, if the Seer dreams of Nighty, will they see it for what it is?)

To continue... Ideally, yes, we want Night-Night dead last, preferably on the very last DAY, but it's really, really hard to bring about that situation realistically. So, yes, I agree, I think it'd be best to just lynch the baddies as they come.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hello, all. I'm at work right now, but will be able to dig into this in a few hours.

[Kath]

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

So hey I'll do it anyway. Here are my spurious Day 1 reasoning level suspicions.

+-Hui - he is 'pushing' everyone but not particularly saying a lot himself.
+-Nilp - if he wants to go down in flames, who am I stop him?!

Back somewhere before deadline.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

I would say yes, I think it was helpful last game. I also move that we rename it "cobbler voting", in honor of G55's original suggestion.

[Boromir88]

With regards to the seer-NW question.

The seer will only see "werewolf" and not know if it's the NW or not.

If the NW dies it will be clear in the narration/revealed.