Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

Seems like a strange discussion to be having on the heels of a game where a seer, a cobbler, and a seer-hinting wolf were all leaving intentional trails on Day 1 and the latter two attracted attention by doing so (albeit confused attention).

Is it ever scientific? Is it scientific late in the game when people track down wolves by cross-referenckng voter, death & suspicion lists? Context still matters. There's still a qualitative element to it, looking at posts, tone, hints, interactions. All that's happening from day 1: it's impossible to post without leaving a trail of some kind, and not posting long enough is evidence, too. Sounds silly, but without day 1 there is no day 2. You'd have a kill with no leads, essentially, just a smaller village with nothing to go on.

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Kath

Perhaps we should play a game where self-voting is banned and then watch the Nilp-plosion.

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

Oh it would have to have proper consequences. e.g. a self vote would lead to a randomised person from the self-voters side being killed that Day.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Sally already modded a game where she told me I can't vote for myself.

No points for guessing what I did.

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

(Crossed with Kath continuing to do so...)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent?

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent?

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

(Also, 'not permanent'? A Dead player gets one vote towards giving one Living player two votes. Death isn't a 'you're out go away', but it's still pretty permanent.)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

(Crossed with Kath continuing to do so...)

...is Huin exactly the Nightmare Wolf here?

[Brinniel]

Nilp is too much fun to have around to lynch on Day 1.

I do agree that Hui's posting style seems different from the last game. Which makes me think better of him for now.

Formy seems very focused on possible wolf strategies. Maybe a wolf trying to mislead us? I feel like I may be grasping at straws a bit on this, but on Day 1, I don't have much else to go on.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

Not sure I get this. I mean, yes, Nilp is a very easy target on D1 as he pretty much paints the target on himself, and if he's innocent he would be a safe vote pick for a wolf. But the rest of this argument is odd. So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler

Additionally, what I think Lommy was getting at was the tone of Nilp's comment about being a carnivore rather than the basic fact that Nilp is acting suicidal on D1 (which I agree would be no grounds at all to base a suspicion on). And that seemed valid enough to me for a D1 argument. Especially this early on, the best leads I get come from how people do what they do rather than the thing itself.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Is "fish leather" a thing from past games?

No, but it's used for making fine things like ladies' gloves and handbags. Too thin and soft for boots, really, although I guess it might do for pumps.[/worldbuilding]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Not sure I get this. I mean, yes, Nilp is a very easy target on D1 as he pretty much paints the target on himself, and if he's innocent he would be a safe vote pick for a wolf. But the rest of this argument is odd. So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?

I meant toDay - toMorrow is quite another thing. Also, if he makes himself suspicious by anything else than his usual suicidal behaviour (such as the use of boots that Rikae picked up), that's fair game.

[A Little Green]

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.

Also, everyone is free to make their choices but I agree that abstaining isn't helpful unless you're a wolf. However miserable the odds (and I don't actually think 1/4 is miserable), if we had all decided to abstain the odds would be even worse toMorrow.

Not even trying to understand about fish leather at this point.