Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

I, for one, am up for sorting this out amongst ourselves without foreign military aid, that rarely ends well. In no time, you are paying taxes to some monarch in his distant white tower while werewolves may still be prowling about. No, we need to protect ourselves using our own resources.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, knowing his suicidal tendencies, he may just do the job for you. Oh the irony, if he turns out to be the Night Wolf!

That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject. But I think all of these will become and grow more important only as the Days progress.

Generally, so far, rather quiet here... Hope for everyone to appear rather sooner than later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I actually heard about Nilping before I met Nilp!

How disappointed were you?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

sally establishes herself a harem

What role do I play (aside from best girl, of course )?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject.

Oh, right. That reminds me... Since my only Dead Thread game was *checks* five years ago (also my last game of any kind), I'd like to ask about the lay of the land. Like, is there a need for the good living inhabitants of Greenwood the Great (not a fan of this murky wood naming nonsense) to co-ordinate with the Dead, once that thread has been populated? I remember this being a sore point in that aforementioned previous game.

[Formendacil]

That is... fewer posts than I was expecting to come back and find. (Wilwa's cats expect regular feeding, you know.

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

Not that there's much actual value in me saying that... but I have time now to post and who knows how my day will go, so rather than be the silent, suspicious villager, I may as well be the present, suspicious villager.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

In fact, I'd say behaviour is the first thing that finds a Wolf (as far as ordinary villagers are concerned). That's why I am kinda unhappy about the so-far noncommital talk. But yeah, there is time.

Anyway... I will have time to be around here and there in the coming hours, and hope for more discussion to start.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

I offer a completely nonbinding and nonmonetary apology for my past transgressions, Nilp, and submit that it is past the Statute of Limitations to secure any recompense from me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

If Nilp is a wolf I'm not sure I'll ever find him. Maybe I'll just vote him today and get him out of the way. I'm sure he won't mind.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

I'm not Legate, but I'm guessing this refers to the possibility of the Nightmare wolf taking more risks or being less concerned for their own survival, knowing they will continue being an asset to the pack even if lynched. Personally I'm not sure if we can put too much weight on this kind of speculation, especially this early in the game, but it's worth keeping in mind that one of our wolves might not be as worried about being lynched a regular wolf. Then again, catching one wolf tends to leave trails to others, so if they're playing this angle, we can probably expect the rest of the pack to be quite prepared to bus the NW.

Originally Posted by Legate

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

And to complete the list of expected D1 events, behold the debate on whether D1 is pointless or not.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day.

I'd take offence but for the truth of that statement.

Poor old Boro! And he was so excited for this meeting as well. What a shame.

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Speaking for myself, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and not play WW when I'm supposed to be working! Anyway done with work now so I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the day, though probably won't stay awake until DL.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt.

Trust me, that post was pretty concise for Nog.

Originally Posted by Kath

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

I've never been a fan of self-votes, but unfortunately I don't think we can read anything into Nilp's. He would definitely do it as the Nightmare wolf but he would just as likely do it in any other role, too. (If anything, Nilp not self-voting on D1 would attract attention.) But regarding the NW in general, I'll be curious to see whether the pack prioritise that extra power or keeping as many of them alive as long as possible - since sacrificing one of their number would mean an extra Day for them to survive in the game.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

In general terms, I don't disagree, but in more specific terms? Well, I do disagree...

Analyzing behaviour implies to me that you're analyzing someone's behaviour against a baseline of some sort. But what is that baseline? We have no other Day's in-game data yet to go by. It's always dicey to analyze against past performances (disclaimer: over a decade ago I did that ALL THE TIME--and somewhat successfully, if my memory serves, but it was different when you played multiple games with the same players back-to-back. Saying "XX doesn't seem to be as active as usual" or "YY is being unusually serious" is far less useful.)

So what does that leave for a baseline? Other players? That's comparing apples to oranges (or Eomers to gil-galads).

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

As a scientist, I would love to be scientific, but... it's Tol-in-Gaurhoth. It's never going to be scientific, and we're fooling ourselves if we think it will.

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

hS

Edit: Crossed since Formendacil #36.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context.
...
But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

I think we're stuck with what the great Númenorian philosophers called abductive reasoning or inference, where we start from observations and then reason for the most likely conclusion - in a good case the results are plausible enough to act on, but they will never verify our conclusions.

I think Form is correct in pointing out the lack of "baseline" - or generally lack of data on Day1, but I'd not deduce from that a total futility of Day1 - even on Day1 itself.

We'll have ample time to get the ball rolling toDay.


EDIT: X'd with a bunch

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

Well, it's certainly not a binary choice in actual fact: but as two ends of a continuum, things lean on Day 1 far more to the the good as nothing end.

That's not saying no one should post or try--but if we catch a Wolf, let's not pretend that it was anything other than dumb luck! And if it isn't luck, it's far more likely to be manipulation by the Wolves, who are the only ones who know anyone's role, than cleverness by the Village.

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Re: suicidal Nightmare Wolf

Both normal and dream-haunting baddies would of course operate better with more information about the village (i.e., the Gifteds) but while normal Wolves can miss on a Gifted and still advance their goal (of eliminating the village), the nightlife lycan needs the information a lot more because using their power on an Ordo is a waste.

If I were a Nightmare Wolf, I basically have two possible avenues of action:

1. Get killed as soon as possible to have more chances to use my powers, and hopefully to reduce any trace of connexion with my fellow carnivores. But I'd lose access to their analyses that would be give me better chance to uses my abilities on the right targets.
2. Just play like a normal canine, have a chance to influence the village by DAY and talk to my fellows at NIGHT, so if I do end up on the chopping block I have a better chance of ruining some Gifted's NIGHT. On the other hand, I might end up leaving behind all sorts of clues to my fellows, but that's also a problem in normal games.

So, ignoring the risks one would incur in any other game anyway, the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

That is... fewer posts than I was expecting to come back and find. (Wilwa's cats expect regular feeding, you know.

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

Not that there's much actual value in me saying that... but I have time now to post and who knows how my day will go, so rather than be the silent, suspicious villager, I may as well be the present, suspicious villager.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

Maybe I'm just having a performative kind of day, but this also looks... strange.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely?

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

hS

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

I, for one, am up for sorting this out amongst ourselves without foreign military aid, that rarely ends well. In no time, you are paying taxes to some monarch in his distant white tower while werewolves may still be prowling about. No, we need to protect ourselves using our own resources.


That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject. But I think all of these will become and grow more important only as the Days progress.

Generally, so far, rather quiet here... Hope for everyone to appear rather sooner than later.

I think, on the whole, that I like this post from Legate, there's just a teeeeeensy voice in the back of my head that's like "ooh, performative wolf!" But I suppose we'll see.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Sally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

Not yet anyway. Give us time, beloved.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I thought I was, too!

There there, my sweetheart, Sally loves you too.

Not the Rona. Just a terrible headache. I'm here but not thinking clearly, and to make things clear on my intentions....

++No vote, or whatever

Don't feel comfy with my thoughts right now and don't want to make any mistakes. Some sustenance and then back to bed for me!


X'd since Lommy