Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

In general terms, I don't disagree, but in more specific terms? Well, I do disagree...

Analyzing behaviour implies to me that you're analyzing someone's behaviour against a baseline of some sort. But what is that baseline? We have no other Day's in-game data yet to go by. It's always dicey to analyze against past performances (disclaimer: over a decade ago I did that ALL THE TIME--and somewhat successfully, if my memory serves, but it was different when you played multiple games with the same players back-to-back. Saying "XX doesn't seem to be as active as usual" or "YY is being unusually serious" is far less useful.)

So what does that leave for a baseline? Other players? That's comparing apples to oranges (or Eomers to gil-galads).

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.