Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.

I might still buy this explanation if it had been Night 2 or something. At this stage, though, I really can't see how they could afford not to try for the Seer. Certainly if their prospective Seer is also someone who is generally considered innocent and therefore unlikely lynchee, all the better for them, but I doubt they'd pick anyone only because of that.

Originally Posted by Boro

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

This last bit especially I find worth noting. The Lhunawagon came about pretty quickly and only after the QT vote; though a few of us had said they found her somewhat suspicious, it looked like most people were pretty surprised by the QT picking her. So yes, I'd expect to see some wolf-on-wolf among the Lhuna voters, but not an orchestrated plot to sacrifice her.

[Boromir88]

So much I'd like to do today, but I'm running out of time. So...let's see if I'm better at prioritizing than mental lists.

Disclaimer: Not discounting the possibility of wolf-on-wolf, but there's still 3. The normal amount for a village. Don't get cocky, yet.

I'm pleasantly surprised that our lynches haven't caused a complete melt down. There was a hiccup with sally that really gave us nothing. Stay the course and focus on the non-Lhuna voters:

Eonwe >>> Boro

Point in favor was his vote for Huey to tie the knot. He's been consistently suspicious of me, but I'll have others take a look at his vote if they so desire. This came before the QT vote was known, so he might have changed if not having to vote early.

Inzil >>> Lommy

Remarks that was an interesting choice from the QT, but not his top choice. Votes Lommy to make it a 4 way tie with me, Eonwe, Lhuna and Lommy. Definitely a suspicious early vote. I wasn't opposed to putting more people into the pot yesterday, but in addition to the poor choice, quickly dismissive of the QT.

Lottie >>> Boro

I get this vote, but will have others take a look at it if they so desire. Not a major fan of her methods, but can't deny they work well for her and just because someone takes the road less travelled doesn't mean we don't eventually reach the same destination.

Greenie >>> Inzil

I believe this made the count: Boro - 2, Lhuna - 1, Lommy - 1, Inzil - 1, Eonwe - 1. Additional spreading of the pot, which was pinged by Pitch. But if a wolf, trying to save Lhuna I would think she would have begun to consolidate the vote. Could have put me further in the lead, for example.

After Greenie's vote it starts to consolidate between Eonwe and Lhuna.

Pitch >>> Eonwe

He notes my comment about not wanting to limit ourself to just 2 choices today makes him not want to vote for me. Votes Eonwe, despite not liking to do so because he was away. Seems to disregard the QT vote. Suspicious. This made a 3 way tie between me, Lhuna, and Eonwe

Rune >>> Eonwe

At this point Lhuna was at 4, Eonwe 3. However, Rune and Lommy (for Lhuna) voted at the same time. So when making his vote the count was Lhuna 3/ Eonwe 2. Suspicious, looks like an attempt to save Lhuna.

Kath and Shasta then voted for Lhuna to put it out of reach I believe.

I tacked on a vote for Eonwe, just because he was an unknown and my preferred choice had already had her fate sealed.

So, for the QT my proposted vote...

+-Rune

[Boromir88]

It'll be some time before I can make it back but I intend to take more detailed look at THE Ka, Kath, and Greenie today.

[Thinlómien]

The QT can whack my head for saying "we should coordinate something with the qt" repeatedly, yet taking no initiative on that. In my defense, I really do hate theoretical speculation and prefer to use my time and energy analysing Night kills and/or votes. Or plain poking at people.

But okay, I think the least we can do is to give the qt pointers about how we might want to lynch toDay, like Boro just did. Since it looks pretty quiet here, I have spent some time on the Night kill and making a list (including a quick look at yesterDay's votes while making that), I might retreat for a little while. On Monday I spent most of my waking hours playing werewolf (did I mention I'm temporarily unemployed until June 2nd? ), and to be honest, I don't have the stamina to repeat that today. So, I'll be off for a few hours at least, and I'll make a mock vote if it helps the qt:

+-Eönwë

but I could as well go for +-THE Ka or +-Inziladun.

[A Little Green]

Lommy makes a good point about giving the QT some warning about what we're up to. Right now I'm still most inclined to go

+- Inzil,

with THE Ka a strong runner-up. I wouldn't actively mind Eonwe, Shasta, Brinn or Kath either.


--


RL sidenote: further joys of lockdown life - my back is worse than it has been for years, so my capacity to sit in front of a computer is somewhat compromised today. I'll do my best to pop in, but don't expect lengthy posts

[Inziladun]

I can sort of see the case against Steve, but then again he did give the go-ahead vote to Huey.

If voting right now, it would probably be

+-Brinn

I still haven't shaken the bad vibe, the fact that Rikae gave her a vote and was taken out that Night, and the fact that many known innocents have voted for her, whereas no known wolves have (excepting the not-to-be-trusted QT vote when they had an evil majority).
And she did give Huey a key vote, but still...

x/d with Pitch

[Kath]

So! 2 wolves down! And the QT made an excellent showing of themselves, too. YesterDay, quite a few people put down their planned vote options long before the QT vote had to be made. Is that something we want to do again toDay on the assumption that it did help?

Just looking at Lhuna's posts form yesterDay again in light of the lynch ... and in not such a rush as yesterDay!

Post 862 - she had made a list:
Likely innocent:
Lottie - Hui vote, trying to stop sally taking her as a Hunter pick
Pitch - Hui vote, believing sally so voting Eonwe to save her

Bad:
Eonwe - voting record
Lommy - attitude towards sally
Shasta - Mac vote, flipflopping on sally
Boro - holding his vote, flipflopping on sally

Should look more closely:
Brinn - votes come at end of successful bandwagons
Rune - voting Inzil out of the blue
Greenie - voted for two known innocents

She stated that she was looking at people who she noted from the voting patterns, and didn't mention the following: Kath, Inzil, Lalaith, THE Ka

I think from this post, one thing that stands out to me is that her reasoning behind finding Shasta 'Bad' and Boro 'Bad' is pretty similar. I'm wondering if one of them is a wolf, and she's matching an innocent to them with the same reasoning to confuse the issue. Given the Day 1 vote for herself and then the picking at Kit which got a lot of attention, Lhuna doesn't seem to have played as a wolf afraid of a bit of controversy. Naming a fellow wolf in her 'Bad' list doesn't seem out of character.

Originally Posted by Boro

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Early suspicion toward Lhuna here.

Inzil then responds to Lhuna's post, wondering why he didn't make the list. Follows on from Lhuna saying he is also not happy about Shasta and Boro.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.

Defending Lhuna against Boro's comments on her voting record.

Originally Posted by Boro

Interesting. I wonder...but that will have to wait.

My comments to sally were tongue-in-cheek. After she pulled that reveal and left us hanging, until right before the DL I seriously doubted she was the hunter. I was wrong.

Replies to Lhuna's suspicion of him. What was the 'I wonder' bit about, Boro?

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.

As part of a list post. The reasons were:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.

This is all pretty solid from Brinn. It largely matches what I'd felt, minus the bit about herself.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm still feeling mostly good about Pitch, Shasta, Lhuna, Lottie, and Brinn, but a few of them have said things that made me raise my eyebrows (and there is the possible Pitch-Hui link mentioned in my previous post) and I think it might be time for me to make sure I'm not giving people free passes based on earlier innocent-looking actions.

This is very non-committal for quite a large chunk of the village and Lhuna is bang in the middle of it.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

In response to Boro's comments. Boro had suggested a pack of Lhuna, Lottie, Inzil + one more. Greenie seems to discount Lottie from this list and I agree based on the reasons I gave previously. Boro and Greenie - what linked Lhuna and Inzil for you, given you seemed to agree on that point?

Originally Posted by Boro

For the QT. I would vote +-Lhuna

Ok, it stinks when your time zone doesn't allow you to be around when all the insanity unfolds. Still she made 2 safe votes. Not safe because of the TIME, but safe because of the people she suspects.

She mentions Huey's slip, but doesn't follow up on it.

1st was a self-vote.

2nd was a flimsy vote for Lommy that she still hasn't explained.

Lhuna had been a topic of discussion throughout the Day but Boro seems to be leading the charge here. I don't think anyone else had Lhuna down as their absolute top suspect.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).

Interesting that Boro and Greenie have pretty much the same reasoning here. Lhuna wasn't top suspect for Greenie, though, with Inzil, Brinn and Boro more suspicious to her.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.

Lommy has Lhuna in the suspiciousish category with Inzil, Brinn and Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Lhuna - She's been very quiet, which I can't exactly blame her for, but I haven't seen any proof that I can trust her, either.

Has in the 'feeling dubious' list, but has Inzil, Lommy and Boro in a higher category.

Originally Posted by Lal

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves.

On the assumption Lal was killed because the wolves thought she was the Seer (and I still can't see what else the wolves would be going for) this is an interesting post. She was right about Lhuna being a wolf, so it could be that she has actually also pegged another wolf or even wolves and so they killed her assuming she was the Seer so she couldn't dream of any more of them. Alternatively, the others mentioned are innocent, so had Lal turned out to be the Seer then the village may have gone after them assuming she had dreamed them and found them guilty too.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

++EÖNWË

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Lhuna putting Boro and Lommy as top suspects together I think makes it very unlikely they would both be wolves, if either is.

Eonwe then has Lhuna as 'unsure, neutral' in his list post, and had voted for one of his top suspects, Boro.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The two first votes are interesting. Lhuna goes for yet another not-so-popular pick, but given how she acknowledges this in her reasoning, I can't really disagree. I mean we must have at least a few wolves who are quiet and steering clear of controversy, unless the remaining pack is Brinn-Zil-Boro-Lottie, which I quite refuse to believe.

Lhuna's vote doesn't seem to be pinging suspicion here for Lommy.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Lhuna brought Rune up a few times, particularly in response to Lommy's posts. If she'd been in real danger at this point, this might look more like pushing a particular name to keep it looking innocent the next Day. As this was before the QT and the votes, I think it speaks to Rune likely being innocent.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'm going to have to ask the same Lhuna. Choosing him appears to be they were having a hunch on his role due to his relative safety and insights? If so, why not Pitch who was in tandem with him at points during the Huin vote. Or do you think he was chosen out of pressure and because of starting the Huin vote they thought he had some additional role insight?

This was about why the wolves chose Legate. Lhuna's assertions that Legate did not look Seerish suggests that this was indeed why he was killed.

Greenie mentions she wouldn't be opposed to lynching Lhuna - has Inzil as her top and Boro and Brinn on the list too.

Then the QT votes Lhuna.

Originally Posted by Lommy

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.

This initial reaction suggests Lommy wasn't eager to follow the vote choice here.

Inzil states Lhuna is not his first choice and votes Lommy. Looking back, it doesn't seem that Inzil has mentioned or interacted with Lhuna since the posting around the Kit discussion, so voting for her here would have really stuck out.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her

Pre-voted Eonwe and didn't seem to have any major suspicion of Lhuna here.

Greenie thinks Hui may have slipped and therefore the QT actually know something about Lhuna. Tempted to go for her, and she did mention she'd be happy to lynch Lhuna earlier.

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.

Lottie voted Boro and didn't mention Lhuna at all. What did you think of the QT vote, Lottie?

Originally Posted by Boro

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.

Boro seemed very happy with the situation.

Rune listed Inzil, Eonwe and Brinn. Said he'd take a look at Lhuna.

Greenie votes Inzil for being the most suspicious and mentioned suspicion of Lhuna and Boro. Having previously said you'd be tempted to follow the QT, Greenie, why the decision to stick to Inzil in the end?

Lal's push for the village listening to the QT I think again would have made the wolves suspect she might be the Seer. There goes the QT literally naming a wolf an no one seems to listen, so she brings it to the forefront.

Lommy said that without an analysis of Lhuna she only had flimsy reasons to vote and wasn't happy with that.

Originally Posted by Rune

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I didn't really see Lhuna as non-vocal because of her involvement with the Kit discussion, but I can see the not great quantities of posts point.

Brinn says she could vote for Lhuna but would rather vote Inzil.

Shasta says he'd probably vote Lommy.

THE Ka looked into Lhuna and Lommy debating whether the wolves killed Legate because they thought he was the Seer, and picking out Rune as an innocent/suspect. She concludes Lhuna comes out of that the more suspicious and votes for her. This is the first vote for Lhuna since the QT vote.

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
THE Ka -> Lhuna 2

This ties Lhuna with Boro.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm pretty okay with this tally. The QT vote for Lhuna is interesting - unsure if I want to follow up on it today, but I don't think she and I are ever going to agree about how long I held my vote the day we QT'd Huin, and I can't decide if I think it's wolvish or not.

I currently think there's a Lommy/Boro connection - specifically I think there's a case for them being wolves together. It's at gut-and-pings level right now; if I were to research anything it would probably be that.

Zil and Eonwe both have minor dings against them but also both have places where I agreed with what they had to say, so...

Then in the immediate next post he agrees with Greenie's vote for Inzil and says it's followed his exact train of thought, so I'm surprised he doesn't have Inzil as a clearer suspect in his own post. And then a post later, looks at Eonwe's list and likes/dislikes parts of it, but again doesn't mention Inzil despite what he just said about Greenie's post.

Pitch votes Eonwe.
Lal votes Lhuna.
Lommy votes Lhuna.

Rune votes Eonwe. This puts Eonwe at 3 while Lhuna is at 4.

I vote Lhuna.
Shasta votes Lhuna.
Boro votes Eonwe.
Brinn votes Lhuna.

So it was Shasta's vote that decided it. Had he voted Eonwe instead, and then Boro still voted Eonwe, Brinn would have had the deciding vote.

I'm sorry, this was supposed to be a look at just Lhuna's posts, but turned into more of a train of thought through the Day. It also took a while! The last post I saw before starting was 1090.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I were to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil

+-Inziladun

I know I am sounding like a broken record, but my secondary choices would be Brinn and Eönwë.

The people I suspect the least at the moment is Pitch, Greenie and Shasta. My good feeling of Shasta I must admit are not based on anything particular save not getting bad vibes and not seeing anything obviously incriminating.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not quoting, I'm on my phone, but Boro's analysis of Inzil's vote yesterday is probably the first thing I can cognitively latch onto and go "hmm, that's a good point, maybe he is suspicious."

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.

Well, I wasn't and am still not a fan of automatically following the QT vote. Yes, they are most likely benevolent at this point and might have information we don't. That means we should seriously consider what they tell us. But should we let them make all the decisions? I don't think so.

So for the whole Lhuna thing, I suspected her but it was more like a few random points and a generic vibe thing, rather than having multiple good reasons to suspect her (like with my top suspect Inzil). So I was not at any point really opposed to lynching her, but there was an undercurrent of hesitation about making decisions on flimsy grounds. I did become a bit more certain about her when I had the time to quickly look at your, Boro's and Brinn's analyses about her.

The whole whether to follow the QT's choice was really a whole another kettle of fish. If the QT had voted for someone I did not suspect very much, I wouldn't have followed their vote. But since they voted for someone I did suspect, it was one factor that made me pick her over my other suspects (some of whom I suspected more). I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree. As far as I can tell, Shasta's suspicion of me goes back to a D1 comment where I called Eönwë's list agreeable (for which I now got the bill) while failing to say the same about Greenie - which in turn has made me more wary of letting Greenie slip through.

Agreed. I'm not sure about Eönwë-Shasta but I keep seeing Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta as things. But it's hard for me to evaluate it because I know both Shasta and Eönwë are among Greenie's best 'downs buddies so that might make them likely to lowkey team up regardless of their alignments, especially if they were innocents genuinely thinking the other one innocent too. But then again, put a bunch of buddies in the same wolf pack, and they'd likely work this way too. Therefore, I've been hesitant to read too much into it, but if Eönwë or Shasta turns out to be a wolf, I think it would prudent to have a closer look at Greenie (and vice versa).

[THE Ka]

(Apologise in advance for the long post, have been trying to catch up since 7:30 my time)

Originally Posted by Pitch in reply Post #1093:

because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.

This whole exchange has me curious now, including in mind Shasta’s post #1040 about ‘holding votes is pivotal’. At the end of the exchange, Pitch’s reply sounds genuine, because it is:

Originally Posted by Pitch, in reply to Kath’s question on his vote, post #889

sally - it really felt like a rehashed plot from the Day before, with some of the same arguments that had been used against Mac being used against sally, and since I was feeling miuch better about Mac by then, I was wary of the same happening to sally. Plus, as I said yesterDay, the sallywagon was being pushed (and pushed very hard) by a mixture of people I didn't and don't particularly trust. I had noticed sally hint at her role earlier, so when she revealed I was willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Eönwë - I've been suspecting him since D1, based on a mix of mostly very uncontroversial posting, throwaway vote for Urwen, IMO possibly wolf-on-wolf vote for Hui and eagerness to jump on the sallywagon. I regret not doing this earlier when it could have mattered.

So, my curiosity is, why does Shasta still have misgivings about this and is asking the same question again about the timing of his vote?

Either an attempt to try and see if Pitch will give a different answer and thus, more evidence why, or to try and bring it back into the spot light to push?
If it’s a build suspicion attempt, we’ve seen several over the last few Days and players are wary of them, so this could be concluded as a risky move. Otherwise, they either didn’t spot where Pitch had replied to this same question or had forgotten. Suspicious still, but that could just as much be a villager’s mistake by oversight.


As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

Originally Posted by Zil

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

Later, we have Shasta commenting about their near DL voting and its merits along with some defense in post #1040:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.

Pitch, as they’ve admitted before, regret not voting earlier with the Eonwe vote and later in post #933 agrees with not leaving the votes last minute to help GT analysis. This follows consistent and in post #971, gives an early vote as others had discussed to help out of +-Eonwe. Later in #1030, Pitch votes Eonwe (making a second vote to Eonwe at that point), noting that he had some hesitation given Lhuna’s earlier vote for them as well, but does so consistent to what he had said earlier over others agreeing to spread the votes and not wait for right before DL.

Regardless of vote and how the QT vote went, out of the Eonwe voters this paints Pitch in a much more genuine and consistent light. There is little to no flip flopping near the middle or end of a bandwagon that might be considered suspicious of wolf trying to appear invested and hide at the same time, nor is there a habit of throwing a bunch of suspicion posts out at players and seeing what sticks and going for it. All in all between the two, this speaks more to Pitch’s innocence.

As for Shasta, it’s interesting to watch their pattern before voting when it comes to reactions to both Eonwe’s lists and then later, Rune’s suspicion of Eonwe.

In post #1005, Shasta quotes Eonwe’s list, but gives a non-commited judgement saying there are parts they agree with in the ranking and others they’re confused about:

I'm so confused about how I feel about this list. Parts of it I love (Boro, Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Lottie to a lesser extent) and parts of it I hate (Pitch, Rune, Ka and Lalaith to a lesser extent.)
What does it all mean?!

The last bit is curious. Is it a subtle signal to Eonwe or just open ended wondering?

Later on in post #1008, Rune replies to Shasta’s suspicions about his previous post, which he was called-out for an ‘odd turnaround’:

What is?
The Lommy comments?
Can't I find behaviour unhelpful and even suspicious without it automatically qualifying a person for being a quarantine candidate?
Or were you referring to something else?

Shasta replies in #1012:

It sounds, to me, like in the first post you're suspicious of her, then in the second, you absolutely don't want to vote her (which translates into not being suspicious of her, to me.) People change their minds, of course, but that seemed to take place in a very short timespan. It drew my eye because I suspect Lommy, so it was like, "Yeah, I agree with this - wait, what?"

This is the second player besides Pitch that Shasta directly starts questioning after they’ve either voiced a suspicion to or have voted for Eonwe. Arguably in the context, this is one of the more consistent elements Shasta has.

Rune later in post #1028 votes Eonwe, stating that they will not have time to return before DL. This at least, still appears to be meeting the earlier sentiment of others on avoiding last minute votes before DL and spreading for analysis. A vote for Eonwe is also consistent to Rune’s suspicions on them in previous game Days.

Shasta then in post #1031 notes that Lhuna, Pitch, and Rune have made a ‘counter wagon’ to the Lhuna one and voices mistrust. Shasta later goes on to vote Lhuna, making it the 6th vote for them and stating that another wagon they prefer is likely not going to come along.

This is fairly consistent of Shasta voting later on but runs counter to other players that Day wanting to aim for more beneficial earlier votes in order to spread them and avoid hiding places for wolves.

Looking back at these exchanges, I can’t for these arguments find Rune or Pitch that suspicious for their votes. Yes, they didn’t choose Lhuna, but then again, in context of their previous suspicions, Lhuna was not either high up on their list of candidates or there. Honestly it appears they were trying to remain consistent with what evidence they had and trusted and go with that, than trying to throw suspicion around and see what stuck to make something to stand on for their arguments.
I really don’t see wolves being this dedicated to sticking to an argument when there are other ones that are much more convenient to hide in or push. Out of the three, I’m growing more and more suspicious of Shasta and how their interest will defensively spike around others looking at Eonwe.

x'ed with Rune, Zil, Pitch, Kath, Lommy, etc...

[Loslote]

I caught up just in time to have to hop on Zoom meetings until just before the QT deadline. I might be able to pop in here and there, but in case I end up super busy and can't post:

@Cuties:
+- Ka
+- Zil

[Thinlómien]

Hello? Eeriely quiet here! I mean, I guess it could be a welcome change in this game, but I'm a bit uneasy. We have the most data so far, we could coordinate something with the qt, but nothing is happening.

I'll make a list to sort my thoughts a little:


Leaning innocent

Lottie and Pitch - still think them innocent for previously stated reasons, and just when I started having second thoughts about them, Greenie's analysis goes and makes them look better. Eh, still not really suspecting them.

Greenie - I was wary of her for a long time, but she has come off as more genuine for the last couple of Days. Also I like her list and I think it would have been a crazy endeavour from a wolf. (It's already crazy from an innocent, but if you add to gathering the facts the effort of presenting them in a light that would hopefully benefit her fellows and make a few innocents look shady? Craazy. I say she deserves at least one Day's pass )

Rune - as I said, Legate's death and Lhuna's denial of my conclusions about it make him look very innocent.


Leaning wherever they want apparently

Brinn and Boro - this game has weirdly warped around both, especially Brinn, still neither of them has gotten even close to getting lynched despite having been under fairly heavy suspicion. I am hesitant to suspect them because they are too "obvious" choices and I feel a bit like both have been "used" by other players in this game, but I don't really have anything to back that up. Both of them also voted late enough yesterDay not to make a difference, and have made several other potentially wolfy votes in the past (for example on Day2).

Kath - nothing makes me suspect her in particular, but I think she usually plays a little more in her own bubble when a wolf, and she's been increasingly doing that. Her Lhuna vote yesterDay came when she was already on the lead, which makes it relatively meaningless. Certainly someone that deserves far more scrutiny than she's getting.

Shasta - hm. I kinda like how he thinks outside the box, but I certainly don't like how he leaves voting for the last minute every time and fails to leave any kind of trail that way. Also, he seems to be flying under the whole village's radar. Why hasn't basically anyone suspected him so far?


Leaning guilty

Zil - to be quite honest, I'm not as sure as I used to be. I kinda relate to him and his misguided zeal, and in any case I can hardly judge that. Still, there's still a wealth of incriminating facts against him, and Greenie not finding anything to dispute the possibility of him being fellows with Huine and Lhuna certainly doesn't help. So: despite the almost staggering evidence, I'm not convinced Zil is a wolf, but I wouldn't forgive myself if I let Zilwolf waltz into victory after how much I have been on his trail.

Eönwë - he's just not sitting right with me in this game at all. Granted, I could be a little blinded by his persistent suspicion for me which makes very little innocent sense from my pov, but he just sounds fake to me most of the time and he keeps concentrating on things I personally find trivial. Also I see Greenie didn't find anything decisive about him, and I still find the implications of Lalaith's death about him a little concerning. Yes, it's possile the wolves really only caught onto Lalaith's words about Kitanna and Legate, and Eönwë just happens to be an unfortunate innocent she heavily suspected (but then: why not "dream" of Legate instead of him on N4?). But I would say it's about as likely that a wolf pack including Wolfwë thought there was seerish intent in how Lalaith tried to recruit others behind her Eönwë case.

THE Ka - I've said for a few Days now that how she seems harmless by operating in her own "bubble", posting content but steering clear from controversial topics, is very alarming to me and reminds me of her past wolfy self. Plus, her Lhuna vote from yesterDay has a bit of the vibe of a wolf voting in a way that would make her look good (following the qt, staying clear of the "likely" lynch candidates who have been under fire that Day ie me, Zil and Boro - especially if we happened to all be innocent) and simply not expecting a bandwagon to form in her footsteps.


Parting commentary:

About Greenie's analysis which I'm using to help myself: yes, she could be a wolf twisting the facts to her own liking, but I doubt she's lying about anything (that would be somewhat unsporting and unwise). So it's her conclusions one should be wary of. Usually this kind of analyses get a lot of stuff right but there usually is at least one member of the wolf pack who turns out to be one of the "no way would this be fellow wolves with known wolf x". So I'm using Greenie's conclusions and taking them with a pinch of salt. Also good to remember she didn't understandably analyse herself, and who knows what we'd find there. (If memory serves, she and Huine scarcely mentioned each other, and she and Lhuna didn't greatly suspect each other at least. Potentially quite wolfy, I daresay.)

About my analyses of the last two kills: It's entirely possible I'm reading the wolf kills' posts more thoroughly than the wolves themselves have. After all, in a village of this size, if they're debating between several kill choices, would they have the time to go through all their posts from Day1 onwards? Maybe, but also maybe not. Not a reason to discredit my findings, but a thing to keep in mind.


edit: xed with Zil and Boro - yay, signs of life!