Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[A Little Green]

Okay so further proof of my utter cluelessness in this game – yesterDay I developed a theory that maybe Mac’s suicidal tendencies were due to him being the Hunter who had pegged a wolf and wanted to be offed. Looks like it’s time for another serious rethink.

Regarding the Legate kill, I think it’s possible he was picked just because more or less everyone agreed he was innocent. That said, I don’t think wolves can ever afford to kill someone just for that when there’s a Seer still on the loose. Our Seer will have had four dreams by now. Granted, some of those s/he dreamed may have died already, but even so, it’s a growing risk for the pack and I don’t think they can entirely ignore it. In light of that, this quote from Legate struck me -

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)

Could this have been a possible reason why Legate was killed? This could have looked like a slip from a Seer-Legate who knew Sally wasn’t a wolf.

Originally Posted by Inzil

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

I thought this was noteworthy. While I agree that Brinn still merits looking at (I’m not comfortable with the free-ish pass she is getting lately), Inzil effectively going “que sera sera, lynch me if you like” rubs me the wrong way. Could be Wolfziladun trying a bit too hard not to appear defensive – especially in comparison to Sally, who was being suspected for similar reasons and was definitely acting defensive.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Btw what I just said about self-exoneration and calculated votes also applies to Eönwë's reaction to me this morning. "I drove the last nail into Huiwolf's coffin, how dare you suspect me?" But you had to vote at a point when your vote would likely be decisive, and if you knew that Mac would come up innocent if lynched, voting Hui was your only viable option. 'looks like it's going to have to be...' = 'I don't like it, but I have no choice'?

I’ve been inclined to think Eonwe rather innocent than not so far, but this is a good point.

Originally Posted by Mac

Bring the butter, my body is ready!

Originally Posted by Boro

++Sally

Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing.

If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously.

Originally Posted by Kath

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game

Originally Posted by Boro

1. Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday

2. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

Regarding Lottie – that last point is off. Regardless of Lottie’s role, it would have been in her interest to try to convince Sally to change her pick. I’d have been stupefied if she hadn’t tried. Regarding Inzil – while I agree that he is one of the most suspicious people in this village, I think it would be very convenient for a Borowolf to say so if they were fellows. Inzil is a fairly possible lynchee either toDay or some other day soon, so an easy candidate for wolf-on-wolf bussing. Especially for a fellow who, like him, voted for Mac in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

Despite my general dislike for statements that start with "if I was a wolf", Lottie makes a good point here – the wolves would have known Sally’s claim was genuine, and a wolf thinking they were under fire from the Hunter would have had a motive to try and lynch someone else.

Originally Posted by Lommy

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.

This makes me feel somewhat better about Lommy – though I might be biased since I’ve been wrong in much the same way about much the same people, so I can kind of see how that’s entirely possible.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

This was my first impression, too. I could see a Lommywolf voting for Sally before the reveal, then consciously pushing for a Sally lynch regardless; but Lommy’s bloodlust (I love this mental image btw!) was a bit too open for this read to seem plausible for me. I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Regarding this whole issue – I think whether or not to lynch a self-proclaimed Hunter is very much a question of playing style and strategy, and in itself doesn’t give us much about a player’s alignment. Lommy’s explanation here sounds like something she would think regardless of role. The only bit rubbing me the wrong way is the last bit. “I’m certainly not a wolf” won’t convince anyone, even if true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

I think Lommy is making sense here, too.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

Hm. Definitely a possibility – if Lommy is a wolf, the pack would have been prepared for her to be under fire toDay for her role in lynching Sally. That said, the wolves would have been prepared for this even if Lommy isn’t one of them. Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance. And even if Lommy is innocent, it makes sense for Inzil to be the one of the pack to go most heavily after her – as he’s one of the most suspected people around, him being implicated in an orchestrated lynch of innocent Lommy wouldn’t really matter that much. I could see him and his pack deciding that he’s pretty much a goner but at least he could try to stick around for one more Day by getting Lommy lynched first.

I want to have another look at Legate's posts at some point to check for possible "Seer clues", as well as another look at a few players we haven't really focused on. It's entirely possible we're dealing with a wolf pack of, say, THE Ka, Kath, Rune and Lalaith, happily watching from the sidelines as louder and more chaotic players lynch each other.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance.

Actually, that's how I see Lommy beginning the case against Sally.

x/d with Boro

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case.

Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?

[A Little Green]

Initial thoughts for toDay:

Leaning innocent:

Lottie – multiple reasons, but particularly her instrumental part in lynching Huinwolf as well as very vocally agreeing with him and pointing it out herself on Day 1. Doesn't look like a plausible wolf pair.

Pitch – I still think Huinwolf wouldn’t have pushed the attention on the GLP and especially Pitch’s role within it so heavily if it implicated a packmate.

Lalaith – Might need to reconsider, but I do think it’s a good sign that she voted for Huinwolf even though she had previously mentioned feeling uneasy about Mac and so would have had a perfectly valid alibi for not bussing a packmate.

Shasta – Still mostly gut feeling combined with his effort to subtly protect Kitanna in a way that wouldn’t necessarily occur to a wolf.

Rune – Haven’t seen anything to worry me so far, and Lommy’s Legatolysis (which sounds like a medical condition btw) brings up a good point about how if the wolves killed Legate for looking like the Seer then Rune most likely isn’t one of them.

Could be anything:

Lommy – On the fence about her. Has a pretty horrible track record so far (though I’m not really in a position to judge anyone on that ), but I think an evil Lommy would have been smoother and less bloodlusty about trying to get Sally lynched. (As she pointed out herself, a wolf would have known Sally was telling the truth and consequently would have known exactly how bad an all-out attack on her would look in retrospect.) On the other hand, I still think she seemed somewhat more jumpy than usual earlier in the game, and her mutual suspicion with Huinwolf could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

Kath – I still have worryingly little read on her considering how active she’s been. Has stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies, and barely interacted with Huinwolf.

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).

Eonwe – I get a general good vibe from him, but don’t really trust vibes anymore. He was very careful and diplomatic especially earlier on. Cast the deciding vote on Huinwolf; though as Pitch pointed out, if he knew he was casting the deciding vote, I could see an Eönwölf bussing a packmate knowing that the alternative would leave him looking pretty bad.

THE Ka – Like Kath, has carefully stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies while contributing actively. Barely interacted with Huin. I don’t like how she seconded Inzil bringing up Kitanna’s slip and thus contributed to outing the Ranger but then didn’t take part in the ensuing discussion about it – and consequently, isn’t really mentioned when that whole debacle is discussed. Admittedly if Inzil is as guilty as he looks, Ka more than likely isn’t; for two wolves to be the first to poke at a likely Gifted would be brazen in a way I don’t think Inzil and Ka would be.

Leaning guilty:

Inzil – Interactions with Huinwolf basically amount to mutual suspicion without votes, and then Inzil voting for Mac over Huin at a fairly crucial moment. First reacts to this with fatalistic “I know this incriminates me!”, then later when both he and Sally are being suspected for their vote placements as well as following paranoia and defensiveness, he drops this tone and basically tells the village to lynch him if they want. Then starts toDay with an all-out attack on Lommy that looks somewhat rehearsed to me (regardless of Lommy’s role).

Brinn – I’m still not comfortable with her. Huinwolf defended her very vocally; she voted for Huin on Day 2 at a fairly crucial point which makes her look better. Admittedly she had been pretty heavily suspected herself, so possibly thought she couldn’t afford to visibly save a packmate people were already connecting her to. Enough has been said about her (especially earlier) concern with keeping her hands clean and overt focus on how the Rikae kill is connected to herself. I’d like to reread her posts from yesterDay and toDay to check what she’s been doing since, as she’s largely disappeared from the public eye aside from those cyptic votes from the QT.

Boro – I find him increasingly worrying. Lightly suspected by Huinwolf while saying he doesn't want to lynch Huin and voting for Mac over him at a fairly crucial time. Admittedly I’m not sure if a Borowolf would be this open about it. Additionally, I’m not comfortable about how he’s repeatedly suggesting QT-related plans that don’t make sense to me from an innocent POV (though admittedly complex ploys and strategies aren't really my strong point so it's possible I'm just missing something) – first when we had an evil-majority QT he suggested bringing the pre-votes back which would have been very useful for the evil QT, then when questioned about this he said something along the lines of wanting to mess with them; then toDay he’s suggesting we start to trust the QT vote now that they have an innocent majority, which doesn’t make sense to me either (other than as an easy way of justifying a vote that doesn’t incriminate himself). Also not sure what to make of his voting for Sally to save himself from a last-minute panic bandwagon against himself that, frankly, didn’t look at all likely.

[THE Ka]

[RL – Sorry for the long bit of silence, helping grieving family is always difficult the second day when shock wears off. I have some more time today so I’ll be catching up further. Thank you everyone for your words, I appreciate all of you. As for the Game, again, regardless of role and what’s happening in our RL let’s keep playing as a sort of solace in the storm.[/RL]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?

Personally I’d take a Seer claim with a greater pinch, especially early game, unless the Seer happened to be extremely lucky and dream of a wolf on a previous Night (even so, that’s really risky as Seer you want to stay in as long as possible). Even if you’re using the ‘wait don’t do it, I’m really the Seer and this is what I know-‘ to try and either sway votes for your pack or just use it as last minute cover as a villager, it won’t keep you concealed for long. Other wolves might just decide to sacrifice you the next Day for being too hot a topic (and making any innocents who supported you guilty of collaboration to others), and if you were a villager and found lying, you could garner a lot of distrust for trying to flush the Seer out and possibly be thought a flustered cobbler.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

now that it turns out Mac was an innocent.

My Mac vs. Sally reasoning boiled down to what happened to Mac beforehand. It just seemed so forced as I’ve said before, like the wolves regardless of his innocence or not at that point, found him to be a sort of main distraction as they were trying to figure out gifted roles. He appeared coy and nervous which made it look like he was afraid of being caught due to Rikae appearing innocent, etc. and that was forced without abandon. I figured by being a pothole in the road, it would frustrate a few of them just enough to see who was upset by proximity.

The next Day, I spot Sally and then Zil casually joking in the same manner and poke them over it, asking if we’re going to see a repeat of yesterDay over Mac. Zil eventually gave an answer to other players, but Sally remained distant and coy over it and I dug further into her voting patterns and actions around DL on different days. I even ended up agreeing with Brinn when she pointed out Sally had begun to try and turn the wheel of attention towards the reason behind Mac votes when the majority of us were already becoming convinced it was something taken advantage of and others feeling duped.

I’d feel more duped over my Sally vote, but before knowledge of the hasty hunter reveal it just appeared that she was doing a lot of little to appear involved. Sort of what we saw from Hui in their list posts and a self-assurance that since Zil had appeared to garner enough attention early on yesterDay that it would be a unanimous vote for them. Considering what had happened with Mac until Legate had enough of a hunch to go back and pull Hui’s posts, Sally had come across to me as trying to bide time and pull the same as Hui, hoping Zil would take all direct hits since they were engaging all our questions at that point.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

I remember reading it in passing first, then again, but at that point it sounded still coy and more like a cobbler move than a villager, which comes across as a flustered wolf that is trying to make us pause enough to try and find reasoning for voting along their suspicions so they can recuperate enough to start back again. In comparison between Sally and Zil at the time and with what had happened with Mac the previous Day still burning in my mind, I didn't want to entertain it and be lead down a rabbit hole. Unfortunately, even fumbled, I wasn't around to read the semi-reveal until after the Day had ended.

[Thinlómien]

Quite universally suspected, Sally made a hunter hint before any voting took place. She said:

Originally Posted by Sally

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Personally, I think it was blatant enough for anyone to notice, but I think everyone who voted Sally before her actual reveal - apart from myself - either didn't notice it or purposefully ignored it, which is interesting. I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.


THE Ka -> Sally

Pressed for time and weighed on by RL, casts the first vote on widely suspected Sally. An innocent with a genuine suspicion of Sally would do this, so could a wolf wishing to vote safely. Can't judge.


QT -> Brinn

Whatever is going on here. I guess toDay's qt vote might help - if they for some reason vote for Brinn again I think they know more than we do, and the Brinn vote yesterDay was a wolvish double bluff that's obvious to the quarantined. If they vote for someone else than Brinn toDay, then I don't think we can say much about this vote.


Eönwë -> Sally 2

"Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing". Sounds quite genuine to me, which makes me feel a little better abut Eönwë who's otherwise rubbing me the wrong way a lot. Of course, this could be Wolfwë rephrasing "Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwagon for one of my fellow wolves, so, let's make this a thing" - but I'm not sure he would be that open about it.


Kath -> Inzil

"I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post". Hmm. She steers clear of the Sally controversy with this, but to be fair, at this point it was no way clear that "whether we should lynch Sally or not?" would be the main discussion topic. A safe vote that could have started a rival bandwagon, given how many people at least mildly suspected Inzil, but didn't. Interesting.


Greenie -> Sally 3

Says she x'ed with Eönwë's vote for Sally. "As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before." I think this vote doesn't tell us very much until we know Zil's role.


Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm not going to discuss my own vote because I feel like both others and myself have done that ad nauseam already. I'll just put my reasoning here: "I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else." By "the latest drama she tried to pull" I mean her hunter hint. I wasn't more specific about it, because I didn't want the "real hunter" to feel too pressured to counter-claim. (Also referred to this a little later when I said "Not buying Sally's theatrics.", in case anyone's wondering.)


Inzil -> Brinn 2

"You know what? I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself. ++Brinn For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us. Do the same, vote for someone else, or me," I really have zero idea what to make of this, but it makes me feel a tiny bit better about Inzil. Wouldn't wolf try to make more sense? Also the comma in the end just leaves me baffled.


After this, Sally revealed for real, saying:

Busy, but I must beg of you....
Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Possibly notable: She likely crossposted with Brinn saying she's debating between Inzil and Sally.

Reactions:

Pitch trusts her and says he got her hint earlier, a little later defends her too.

Legate is skeptical and asking who is she hunting. Later Legate gets very vocal about repeating the question, heavily distrusting Sally's claim in the process. Also agrees with me (see below) that we can't count on the wolves to reveal Sally's true role for us.

I didn't buy the reveal at all and explained why.

Shasta says he got the hint but isn't buying the claim either, later he adds we shouldn't nonetheless lynch Sally and explains why. (I disagree with this and explain why.)

Boro is frustrated and confused. Later agrees with Shasta that Sally is likely faking but we still shouldn't lynch her.

Lottie believes Sally and says she's happy to vote someone else. Also: "It's too close to the deadline and we have no idea who her pick would be anyway. I'm not voting for Sally." Tries to bring other candidates to the table, namely Zil and Boro.

Rune pops in and asks if he got people's reasons for suspecting Sally right, without saying whether he believes her claim or not - soon adds that lynching Sally is too high stakes for him.

Brinn is unsure/skeptical about the reveal.

Lalaith doesn't say this or that about whether she believes Sally or not, just notes: "Like Legate I want Sally to tell us who she is hunting. So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling."

Mac doesn't trust Sally's reveal but it still makes him hesitant to lynch her.


Sally -> Lottie

"Equal parts suspicion and self-preservation."


Lottie -> Sally 5

Does quite a legate180. The only reason I can see is that Sally didn't tell her hunting target, seemingly because she wasn't around. Vote accompanied about angry shouting that if Sally is the hunter she shouldn't hunt her.


Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.


Legate -> Sally 7

"Her blood be on us and on our children." whatever that means. Stayed extremely skeptical of Sally 'til the end.


Shasta -> Sally 8

"-shrug emoji-" From a person who was pretty loud that we should lynch Sally regardless of her role? Really?


Brinn -> Sally 9

"If she's the hunter, I don't understand why she would not say her pick." Consistent disbelief of Sally. But I have to say that her "quiet and reasonable" stance to the whole Sally debacle could very well easily be fake. Her actions would be very safe for a wolf who has decided offing hunter!Sally is worth the risk.


Rune -> Inzil 2

"meh." Well, he's going with his suspicions, casting a somewhat doomed vote for someone he suspects, rather for an either wolf/hunter lynching whom he considered too big a risk. Makes sense.


Boro -> Sally 10

"Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing. If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously." The jumpiness here is a bit eyebrow-raising, but I can't disagree with the general sentiment about what if Sally actually is the hunter, I mean I thought the same myself.


Mac -> Greenie

"Just because. "


Pitch -> Eonwe

"Is everybody allowed a throwaway vote once in the game?"


No vote: Lhuna Not much to say about that, but speaking of her: don't look at her vote tally of yesterDay, it has several errors. I noticed because I used it as a basis for this pots while rereading the thread and the votes didn't add up. What I have presented here is the correct voting tally.


Thoughts: I'm not super keen on Lalaith and Shasta's votes, the former voting Sally without even saying whether she believes her or not, the latter voting Sally despite thinking it's a bad idea. Brinn's attitude towards the whole debacle looks super safe, but not necessarily sinister.

I would still like to hear from THE Ka, Greenie and Eönwë whether they caught Sally's hunter hint and what they thought of it.

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate. There was a lot of suspicion against especially Inzil but also Boro, but these didn't gain momentum. Why? Perhaps a lot of the people looking for alternatives for Sally were actually wolves but they didn't want to bring a fellow to the block when the lynch was going in a nice direction for them* and bringing forward a second innocent lynch candidate who they hdn't suspected very vocally so far seemed like too conspicuous a move?


*barring of course the fact that some wolves might have been scared of lynching the hunter because she might target them, but there were very few people worried about who Sally might actually pick - namely Lottie, Mac and Rune


edit: xed with Greenie and Kath

[Lalaith]

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

[Lalaith]

Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day.
See my post 792.

So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

I gave out three different lynch candidates as an alternative to Sally. And I argued with you about what was wrong with having a known innocent who the wolves were too scared to kill. And your reply was at 819 was (in keeping with your general mood) bloodthirsty.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Quite universally suspected, Sally made a hunter hint before any voting took place. She said:

Personally, I think it was blatant enough for anyone to notice, but I think everyone who voted Sally before her actual reveal - apart from myself - either didn't notice it or purposefully ignored it, which is interesting. I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

I didn't think too much about it, to be completely honest with you. At that point, I was tired and had a headache (an actual one, not just a thinking-too-much-about-werewolf one), was pretty convinced that Sally was a wolf, and in general terms didn't think it likely that a genuine Hunter would want to drop hints at her role as this would effectively mean the wolves would be less likely to kill her, thus making her Gift useless. So with this combination of background factors, it did cross my mind that she was making a hint but I took it with such a big pinch of salt that it didn't really impact my decision-making.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

I can't obviously say if I would play this brazen as a wolf too - perhaps, because like I said I feel more laidback about the game in general. On the other hand, it's possible being a wolf and feeling a loyalty to my pack would have made me want to avoid the spotlight.

I mean I certainly don't follow with Kath saying that if I was a wolf and lynched, the discussion being centered on me toDay would give you guys fewer clues about my packmates. On the contrary, it would be a freaking goldmine. In fact, even as it is, if you guys lynch me toDay, I want you to swear to look at the controversy I have created and look who jumped on it in an opportunistic way.

But that being said, I would very much like everyone to look at other people than myself toDay. I'm afraid the whole "is Lommy suspicious for spearheading the Sally lynch" debate is somewhat drowning out everything else.

I'm not the only one who voted yesterDay.

No one but me has even looked at the Legate kill.

Please guys, focus your energies somewhere else, at least a little while. Then you can decide who you vote. Frankly I understand why several of you suspect me, and perhaps I deserve to be lynched for how wrong I've been in this game, but I don't want to be lynched because getting innocent myself lynched would be about the worst conclusion to my track record in this game and I would not forgive myself for messing up that bad without having done anything constructive (that I can see the consequences of so far). I don't want to play anymore unwitting cobbler than I already have.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

Come on. I didn't force anyone to vote Sally yesterDay, yet most people still did. I don't have any magic manipulation powers. Yes, I was arguing quite vocally for lynching Sally. (Side note: so was Legate, a known innocent.) You guys could have let me yell at Sally alone and ignored me and voted for someone else. Yet you didn't. You can blame me for my decision that was bad in hindisight, but you can scarcely blame me for your own. The Sally lynch was not my doing alone, yet that narrative is very much being pushed. Do you know who benefit from that narrative? The wolves. Both the wolves who voted for Sally themselves, and even those who didn't, because it's making me an easy lynch candidate.

Originally Posted by Zil

No, but I can't see such zealous urging being the product of a mere "90%".

Then be careful how zealously you press lynching me toDay. Anyway, I would like to link as a proof a game where I was the ranger and Mac was a wolf (ok not the same as this, as I turned out to be right there) where I was super convinced Mac was a wolf, went on a crusade that made everyone raise their eyebrows, then Mac pulled a fake ranger reveal and out of spite I refused to counter-reveal because I didn't want to give him that snippet of victory and everyone thought I was deranged and I think I was even lynched (and Mac the next Day). Fun times. Not my greatest moment, but I have thought of that game a lot recently because it was a great warning for me not to pick fights with Mac (which I nonetheless did in this game). *blows kisses to Mac in the qt if he's reading this*

Originally Posted by Lalaith

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day.

I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I didn't think too much about it, to be completely honest with you. At that point, I was tired and had a headache (an actual one, not just a thinking-too-much-about-werewolf one), was pretty convinced that Sally was a wolf, and in general terms didn't think it likely that a genuine Hunter would want to drop hints at her role as this would effectively mean the wolves would be less likely to kill her, thus making her Gift useless. So with this combination of background factors, it did cross my mind that she was making a hint but I took it with such a big pinch of salt that it didn't really impact my decision-making.

Noted.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?

Hm, I'm not sure I understand this question, please rephrase if I answer the wrong thing. I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

Got it, that answers it more for me. Kath had pointed out earlier with a quote from Mac the previous Day where he had mused that the wolves if targeting a hunter would want them out of the way early since the risk of the hunter taking an innocent was high. Before knowing his role, this could have been seen as a wolfish way of laying a subtle hint to pack mates, but now it's just a villager concerned.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.

This is in response to Lal. Agreed, but there were quite a few others in the same boat. Who was still to vote after sally's reveal:

Lottie - 9.53
Lalaith - 9.55
Legate - 9.56 - known innocent
Shasta - 9.56
Brinn - 9.58
Rune - 9.58
Boro - 9.58
Mac - 9.58 - known innocent
Pitch - 9.59
(Lhuna - no vote)

The first vote after the reveal was Lottie's, half an hour after sally's vote, and that was with 7 minutes to go, and by the look of it almost every vote from then cross posted. Out of all 9 actual voters there, no one took the plunge of pushing forward another candidate fast enough. Very likely there are wolves who didn't want to be the first onto an alternative bandwagon who were watching the insanity with glee. But looking at the lateness of Legate and Mac's votes, who we now know were innocent, means not immediately throwing out an alternative doesn't automatically equal wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta -> Sally 8

"-shrug emoji-" From a person who was pretty loud that we should lynch Sally regardless of her role? Really?

If my, like, two posts stating a differing opinion to the majority qualifies as "pretty loud", what does that make you? Ear-shattering?

Originally Posted by Lommy

Thoughts: I'm not super keen on Lalaith and Shasta's votes, the former voting Sally without even saying whether she believes her or not, the latter voting Sally despite thinking it's a bad idea. Brinn's attitude towards the whole debacle looks super safe, but not necessarily sinister.

I explained that already - I'm used to Hunters that the wolves have to kill, and you had a point; wolves wouldn't necessarily have had to kill a revealed Hunter here. Although I do think, as I type this, the case for a wolf-Lommy going all-out to get Hunter-Sally lynched to take down a non-wolf grows... and makes Lottie look better, maybe? Hmm. Pin in that.

Back to my train of thought - I fully thought Sally was a wolf; leaving the Hunter to the wolves was an option. No one seemed to really go for it, so I was fine voting for Sally in the end. Hence the shrug.

X'ed since my last.

[Lalaith]

I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.

I've already explained and also mea-culpa-ed on this. See my post 905.

[Kath]

For the QT, my suspicions haven't really changed, because neither person has done anything to make me feel better about them.

+-Inzil
or
+-Lhuna

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm. Interesting.


Well it's 3 AM here and I have work in 5 hours and I can barely keep my eye open, so I'll call it a night.

[Thinlómien]

...to see if people have already addressed issues I raised in my vote analysis post.

I'm somewhat worried to see that the timestamp of Zil's megapost against me is 8 minutes past the deadline. He spent the Night building an attack against me. I can't feel very good about this - even if given the amount of suspicion he's under, he could probably quite sure about his continued survival as an innocent too.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

I'm still not sure why you were so convinced Sally would hunt you. Dare I say the p-word here? Hunters vote their hunt pick sometimes, but just as often they don't. I am somewhat thinking on the opposite lines to you here. Why indeed did no one really press the lynch towards Zil (or Boro, or Brinn - all three quite widely suspected)? Is that ecause they were somebody's packmates? (Not talking about Lottie here. I don't really suspect her, and she seemed to be fairly convinced Sally was a wolf until the last minutes.)

Originally Posted by Lalaith

For the same reason Legate did (we actually cross-posted) I got freaked out by the fact she didn't say who she was hunting. Up til then I'd been waiting on an agreed alternative to sally.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda.....Shoulda just voted earlier for Eonwe. Not sure if it would have helped though. Zil was coming up as an alternative with a lot of people but I didn't really feel enthused by that alternative bandwaggon - I felt similar about him as I had about Mac - couldn't quite see what all the fuss and suspicion was about.

Okay, I see this answers a question I had to Lalaith. I'm a bit unsure whether I buy it or not. It sounds genuine enough, but if Zil is innocent, then this could easily be Lalwolf admitting reluctance to get her hands bloody by voting him.


edit: xed with Lal, gotcha!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

The other important thing to consider here is, Lommy is a very good player who is very good at arguing for her innocence. If anyone could get away with encouraging the village to quarantine a Hunter who was very likely to take an innocent with her, it would be Lommy. With five wolves, I could see them agreeing that someone should be playing loud and bold, and that Lommy was the best person to do it.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Come on. I didn't force anyone to vote Sally yesterDay, yet most people still did. I don't have any magic manipulation powers. Yes, I was arguing quite vocally for lynching Sally. (Side note: so was Legate, a known innocent.) You guys could have let me yell at Sally alone and ignored me and voted for someone else. Yet you didn't. You can blame me for my decision that was bad in hindisight, but you can scarcely blame me for your own. The Sally lynch was not my doing alone, yet that narrative is very much being pushed. Do you know who benefit from that narrative? The wolves. Both the wolves who voted for Sally themselves, and even those who didn't, because it's making me an easy lynch candidate.

I'm with Lalaith here - it was very hard to think and plan around Lommy arguing that we should just quarantine Sally yesterDay. There wasn't another voice arguing with you, so we all just ended up quietly doing our own things without coordinating at all, and a lot of that (from what I remember) was just not being able to coordinate over you.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm still not sure why you were so convinced Sally would hunt you. Dare I say the p-word here? Hunters vote their hunt pick sometimes, but just as often they don't. I am somewhat thinking on the opposite lines to you here. Why indeed did no one really press the lynch towards Zil (or Boro, or Brinn - all three quite widely suspected)? Is that ecause they were somebody's packmates? (Not talking about Lottie here. I don't really suspect her, and she seemed to be fairly convinced Sally was a wolf until the last minutes.)

If you pay attention to Sally's posts yesterDay (before the reveal), you'd notice that she really didn't have a nuanced suspicion list. She suspected me, Pitch, and Mac, as far as I can tell based pretty much just on gut feeling. I didn't get any sense from Sally that she had a deeper plan going on. I got the sense that she was too RL busy to have any hidden suspicions. And I had the feeling that I was absolutely going to be her pick, and that if I wasn't, it was going to be Pitch or Mac - two people who, at that point in time, I really didn't think were wolves. Turned out I was right - I was her pick until one minute before the deadline, and when she changed it, it was to another person who was very, very likely innocent.

[Thinlómien]

(and then I'm gonna take a short break because I've spent basically all day on this game, ugh)


Innocentish

Lottie - I don't like how she's been focusing on just me toDay, but I maintain that her last minute hunter panic, as well as her Huine vote, make her look more innocent than not.

Pitch - also looks very innocent thanks to his Huine vote. I mean I guess I could reconsider that, but not toDay.

Rune - I think the Legate kill makes him look very good, and there's nothing at the moment to make me second guess it.


Ish

Kath - nothing super sinister or super reassuring going on here. I got mildly suspicious of her being so non-committal yesterDay, but the Legate kill perhaps makes her look mildly better.

Greenie - I have got a lot more genuine vibe from her toDay than before, perhaps because she has been talking more openly about her emotions/ thought processes (frustration over having been wrong, admitting ignoring Sally's hunter hint because she suspected her etc). Still, her track record is about as terrible as mine, and it would be very ironic if we were BOTH innocent. I still don't like how she steered clear of the whole Huinescussion on Day2 though.

Boro - started the game weird, then started to sound like his normal innocent self. Explained this with meta reasons which I was ready to accept, thought him pretty innocent. However, his Mac vote is still a little concerning, as is the fact that like with Inzil (see below), the suspicion against him somehow seldom materialises as votes. I should probably reconsider my good feeling about him (which, to be entirely honest might partly be based on him not suspecting me) but I don't think I'm gonna do that toDay.

Lalaith - I keep flipflopping here. I still don't like her indecisive going with the flow yesterDay, and I think her Huine vote looks faily likely to be a wolf-on-wolf. But then again, could innocent Lal play this way? Absolutely.

THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...

Shasta - mmmmhhh I still like him in regards to the Kit thing, and I like his independent thinking. But I don't like how he's now spent two days hovering around until the deadline and casting an absolutely meaningless vote. Talk about people who keep their hands clean. Possibly looks a tidbit better for the Legate kill though.


Suspiciousish

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.

Inzil - the next ??????? for me. I still don't like his Mac vote, and I don't like the way he's gunning for me right now, and I don't like how despite "everybody" suspecting him an actual zillynch has failed gaining traction repeatedly. Is it because a lot of the suspicion on him has been wolf-on-wolf? His weird vote yesterDay doesn't feel to wolvish though, and I am somewhat afraid he could be a very similarly misguided innocent as I have been. It would be all too ironic.

Brinniel - I am honestly quite puzzled how this game seems to orbit around her. She gets suspected, but never lynched. The evil QT have latched onto her (hopefully we'll learn more about that in three hours). If Legate had been considered seer, paranoid Brinn could have been behind that (just like with the Rikae kill, may I add). Everyone talks about her all the time but she is quite non-committal in her comments about people and keeps voting safely. Huine defended her in a striking way that could however be just as well wolf-on-wolf as wolf-on-innocent. If I would lynch anyone just to shed light on everybody's roles, I'd pick Brinn. But I'm not 100% she's a likely enough wolf that it's a good idea.

Eönwë - I can't quite put my finger on it, but my vibe of him in this game is very opportunistic and evasive, and he's been involved in several dodgy puddles (such as last minute voting in Huine-vs-Mac, or possibly his Sally vote yesterDay which I'd like to hear more about).


edit: xed with everyone

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Although Pitch - at the risk of sounding a hypocrite, why didn't you vote Eonwe earlier?

I should really have done that and hoped somebody would follow suit - both Legate and Rune seemed interested, not sure whether there would have been enough others to save sally. I just waited too long whether anybody else was going to suggest an alternative to sally that I could get behind, and then between refreshing and discussing what to do all of a sudden there were five more votes for sally in less than five minutes, and it was too late.

Originally Posted by Kath re QT vote

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

Everybody sing along with me:


Dead innocents don't know anyone's role,
Dead innocents don't know anyone's role etc.


Which is to say, even though they're free of evil intentions, our beloved quarantined may still be wrong and the baddies can hijack a vote for a non-wolf.