Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil and Lottie have the highest post count so far.

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

His post about Zil doesn't feel like a full on distancing attack, though. It felt more like laying groundwork, since Mac will probably have to vote for Zil eventually, but I didn't think it was a full on "Look, we can't possibly be packmates" kind of attack.

[Kitanna]

A 15 minute break is not enough time to do anything.

Originally Posted by Pitch

THIS. Which points to either Mac or Brinn (not both, I think - Mac voted Brinn at a point where the Galwagon was well on the way, no particular danger to him and no need to bus a packmate). Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.

I agree with this assessment and think a lot of light will be shed.
I am leaning more toward Mac based on my assessment earlier, but I don't feel overly confident in casting that vote. Too bad Day isn't 48 hours, then maybe I could catch up.
My biggest problem is, there are some loud people I haven't been able to comb through. Huin, Pitch, Boro, Lottie, and Legate all stand out as people I think I should look at closer.
Huin has come off as level-headed and reasonable throughout, but every so often there's a comment as I skim that makes me raise an eyebrow.
Boro, from past experience I know him to be wily (heh heh heh), but I haven't paid him much heed beyond his "boo lists" followed by lists posts.
Legate, had slight suspicions of him because of his post #88, that rubbed me wrong, but other things came to light after that, forcing him from my mind.
Pitch, same thing with Legate. I voted for him because he was my most likely candidate at the time and then toDay, I haven't dedicated time to him.
Lottie, I just let her float under my radar this whole time. Which could be said for Rune and Lommy too.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, as stated back in #354, I don't know if I'll be around at all later. Since I might be, I don't want to vote now, but in case I'm not, I have a 'emergency late early vote' post stored up on my phone for +-Mac.

If I post anything else between now and DL, you won't be seeing that post, because I'll have had time to see what's changed.

X-post edit: Mac, Zil's post-count is suspicious to me because in my head he's quiet, meaning what he's been doing is flying well under the radar. Quickly rereading your post, I'm seeing a lot of 'both no and yes' from you as well. Not a full accusation, but maybe as much as you thought you could safely do.

hS

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

To quote Pitch... *ping*

Accusing my packmate right before he gets lynched? I'm not accusing him - I said I'm not very suspicious of him! And people wonder why I'm feeling framed!

Not to mention, what does his post count have to do with anything?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

To quote Pitch... *ping*

Accusing my packmate right before he gets lynched? I'm not accusing him - I said I'm not very suspicious of him! And people wonder why I'm feeling framed!

Not to mention, what does his post count have to do with anything?

Gotta agree with Mac for a sec, this post of Huin's was kinda strange. Also they seem to "know" Mac is going to get lynched toDay, which is very I mean sure, Mac has been one of the main suspects toDay but it could still go numerous ways with more than 2h to go and merely a handful of votes cast.


edit: xed with Hui

[Nogrod]

The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel


Votes (2 hours before the DL)

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Thinlómien - She's seemed more possibly wolfy to me toDay. One thing is that she seems to have backed off from Boro without much warning - maybe afraid that a manufactured Boro suspicion was gaining too much traction?

To be fair, I think Boro’s behaviour did change quite noticeably from yesterDay to toDay so Lommy’s change of opinion about him seems justified to me.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.

I found this point by Lhuna worth bringing up again. I agree that the reasoning is odd – if Brinn genuinely suspected Pitch, surely she would be inclined to think it was a good thing that others suspected him too? It’s as if we were forgetting that lynching a wolf also requires a bandwagon (except we don’t tend to call it that if it actually lands us a wolf).

Originally Posted by Lommy

Umm, why? And a very ominous parting shot to accompany it. I don't like this one bit. "Fellow wolves, rally here, wink wink nudge nudge?"

Hm. I read Lhuna’s “Parting shot” as a throwaway comment in response to others already talking about Macwagons when so far Mac only has the one vote by Lommy. Lommy’s reading of it seems a little nervous to me; I seriously doubt a Lhunawolf would signal her fellow wolves to rally to her bandwagon that openly.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, if Mac is a wolf, he clearly started the Day with the mindset that he's a lost cause because Rikae's death points to him anyway so perhaps he could then at least do his packmates a service by trying to attract as much attention as possible? I still don't understand why macwolf would be this paranoid/suicidal, but I see even less reason for ordomac to act this way.

This is more or less my thinking too at this point. Unless something very dramatic comes up in the next half hour or so, I’m probably voting for Mac.


EDIT: x-ed with Mac, Legate, and ze mod

[Macalaure]

++Thinlómien

Unless something stood out to me from my lengthy list of unknown, I was going to vote for Lommy or Greenie toDay. Lommy makes more sense at this point for obvious reasons. The mere fact that I voted for her probably makes it unlikely for her to gather any additional votes.

People talking as if I'm laying the groundwork for some saving vote is... grinding my gears, shall we say.

Lynch me if you must, I'm going to try and spend the rest of the day getting a clear thought or two and sharing them.

[Boromir88]

Waiting for this QT vote to be known...in the meant time:

A thought I thought last night before bed - a possible reason for a Rikae kill is that they were onto something with their train of thought re: the anti-Brinn wagon. Weigh in, please.~Shasta

That's why I was focusing in on the 2 wagons.

Huey, Lottie, and Inzil all remarked caution against a Brinn-wagon. Which I also found suspicious. It's almost like a wolf/wolves trying to appear reasonable in "hey let's not bandwagon."

Lottie and Inzil had previously established reasons for suspecting G55 and voting her. Which is fair enough, but still pretty convenient for a wolf to be in there advocating against a Brinn-wagon, even if Brinn is not a wolf.

Edit: crossed with Nog posting the QT vote. Great. Not what I was expecting or wanted to see.

[Boromir88]

Apparently my edit turned into a repost *sigh*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

First things first: I knew I was missing sally from my list, yet posted it nonetheless! Well, should go to the middle zone.

Second: the QT vote. Absolutely what I would expect from a Cobbler vote, but even, possibly, could be something they agreed on. I personally feel nothing wrong with pursuing Brinnwagon further, regardless whether it's been "blessed" by the Cobbler or not. It will only leave us to wonder. And let's keep in our heads the mantra: the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles. This is literally a vote to mess with our heads (even if it may have something else in, too - but it has this, for sure).

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil and Lottie have the highest post count so far. How did they end up under my radar?

In the name of all the grandchildren of Finwë, Zil, really? My sentiment exactly.

However, that being said...

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

This again made my radar *ping* at HS. This again sounds like casting blame "from the flank", or "as he passes by". By now, however, HS has been doing it so consistently that I am really beginning to wonder.

Still. Right now, considering voting either HS, Lottie or Brinn. The former two seem to affect me the way that I keep telling myself "you are exaggerating", but then I see their next post and it's the same thing all over again. If I don't vote now and wait, I may end up again with the choice of some bandwagons about someone completely different and I would prefer not to do that. If it happened however and it was about some of those others that got votes so far, I would not be opposed to voting Lommy, possibly, but the whole thing seems horribly sinister and I have zero, zero, zero idea how to react to Mac. Zero.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Still. Right now, considering voting either HS, Lottie or Brinn. The former two seem to affect me the way that I keep telling myself "you are exaggerating", but then I see their next post and it's the same thing all over again. If I don't vote now and wait, I may end up again with the choice of some bandwagons about someone completely different and I would prefer not to do that. If it happened however and it was about some of those others that got votes so far, I would not be opposed to voting Lommy, possibly, but the whole thing seems horribly sinister and I have zero, zero, zero idea how to react to Mac. Zero.

What seems sinister?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What seems sinister?

Literally "the whole thing", as in, what is happening between you and Mac and I don't know what, it is absolutely nontransparent to me and I would maybe do better to stay clear of it.

[A Little Green]

I’ve essentially had the same problem for two days now so expect some talking in circles while I try to untangle it. (Sorry Lommy, this is exactly the waffling you mentioned! Or, should we say, "considering both sides of the issue". )

My top suspects are still Mac and Brinn, but both of them being wolves looks unlikely to me – chiefly because they’ve both acted paranoid in a strikingly similar way about the Rikae kill being about framing them specifically. I don’t really see two wolves from the same pack drawing attention to themselves in this way. Unless they were counting on that if one of them got lynched, this would give the other a free pass?

Mac’s self-defence does look more annoyed than desperate, as someone pointed out. But I just can’t see why an innocent Mac would draw attention to himself the way he was doing especially earlier toDay. And maybe our minds do work in very different ways, but I don’t see how (and why) an innocent Mac would come up with complex theory about how Cobbler55 thought Rikae was a Seer who dreamed Mac was a wolf and maybe the wolves followed her lead and thought so too, except he isn’t really a wolf, but maybe the wolves want to frame him.

That said, I don’t trust Brinn at all either. As in the post Lhuna quoted earlier where she said she suspected Pitch but laid off when he started being suspected by more people as she thought there might be wolves in the bandwagon and she didn’t want a part in it; I get a vibe of someone more concerned about not being implicated in lynching an innocent than actually lynching someone she genuinely suspects.


EDIT: x-ed since SHasta's reappearance

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Huey, Lottie, and Inzil all remarked caution against a Brinn-wagon. Which I also found suspicious. It's almost like a wolf/wolves trying to appear reasonable in "hey let's not bandwagon."

It just struck me as coming out of nowhere. It looked like someone(s)wanted to save G55.
I would really like to know Brinn's alignment, but I don't know I'd vote for her.
Since the QTs (which effectively means G55) did vote for her, that throws a small wrinkle into it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Since the QTs (which effectively means G55) did vote for her, that throws a small wrinkle into it.

That only tells us that G55 doesn't think Brinn is a wolf but wants to lynch her to save somebody she thinks IS a wolf - which could well be Mac, as she already seems to have thought him a possible wolf yesterDay.



However, I find myself concurring with Lottie above that the tone of Mac's last couple of posts is giving me pause. I don't know what a cornered Macwolf would sound like, but this doesn't feel like it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

That only tells us that G55 doesn't think Brinn is a wolf but wants to lynch her to save somebody she thinks IS a wolf - which could well be Mac, as she already seems to have thought him a possible wolf yesterDay.



However, I find myself concurring with Lottie above that the tone of Mac's last couple of posts is giving me pause. I don't know what a cornered Macwolf would sound like, but this doesn't feel like it.

I don't actually think we should read into the QT vote at all. It could just as easily be a double-bluff by G55 - "If I vote Brinn, they'll think I want to kill her, so they won't vote her," etc. etc.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't actually think we should read into the QT vote at all. It could just as easily be a double-bluff by G55 - "If I vote Brinn, they'll think I want to kill her, so they won't vote her," etc. etc.

True.


The Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles,
The Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles,
The Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles,
High-dee-high-dee ho!

Originally Posted by Greenie

That said, I don’t trust Brinn at all either. As in the post Lhuna quoted earlier where she said she suspected Pitch but laid off when he started being suspected by more people as she thought there might be wolves in the bandwagon and she didn’t want a part in it; I get a vibe of someone more concerned about not being implicated in lynching an innocent than actually lynching someone she genuinely suspects.

That's one of the main points against Brinn which has up to now been brought up ad nauseam by the world & his wife, starting from Rikae onward and (IIRC, need to check but I think) including Mac at some point? Why reiterate it?

[Macalaure]

Ok then, looking into the rest of my unknown list.


Loslote. Half her posts seem genuinely innocent and the other half doesn’t. I don’t feel like going into detail, there’s just too much of it. Gut feeling is innocent who I just happen to I disagree with.

Not seeing anything suspicious about Shasta.

Moving on to lower post counts…

Still can’t get a read on Rune, but nothing jumps out either.

Something doesn’t feel right about Sally, but I can’t put my finger on it. I always feel that way about Sally though, so yeah…

I’m mostly ok with Lhuna. Her role in the Kitanna/ranger/wolf thing raised an eyebrow, and I’m no fan of her parting shot, but that’s all I see.

Eonwe. Getting some suspicion from people, but outside of throwing away his vote, I don’t see it.


So, I was hoping one or two on my unknown list would stick out suspiciously upon closer observation, but as it turns out, I guess there was a reason why they were on the unknown list in the first place.

[Macalaure]

Feeling a bit bad about my Lommy vote now. Her last few post look more innocent to me. I'm feeling a lot worse about Huin and wish I could change it to him or Greenie, vote count be damned.

[Thinlómien]

In the spirit of my latest (longer) post, I would really urge people to look at patterns and teamups and accusations and wrack their brains what might the entire wolf pack, or the majority of it be. When you start doing this, you quickly notice that there's a limited amount of combos that both make sense as a team and consist of suspicious feeling players.

Also I know it's only Day2 and now is not the time to start analysing submarines but everybody should at least skim through the player list and pause to consider each fellow player.

As for the lynch toDay, well I already cast my vote, which I maintain "made things more interesting" , even if it happens that I get lynched toDay. I see where the second guessing on Mac is coming from but to me, his behaviour continues to be mostly baffling - he seemed so paranoid resigned to his death the whole Day, now that it started to look like he would be lynch, he suddenly becomes chill and starts focusing on other things than just being framed?

I still think we should give Brinn a pass for toDay, mostly not based on her own actions but how eager people have been to pin accusations and valiant defences on her. To the point that I thought everyone else is thinking that Brinn was yesterDay's kerfuffle and being surprised that people (at least Legate and Greenie) seem to be genuinely considering voting her. But what can I say, lynching her is probably a better idea than lynching me, anyway.

Ditto about Inzil. I still think he has seemed relatively innocent, so the constant suspicion on him makes me think I'm missing something. But is it him being shady, or a low key wolf conspiracy to keep him as a backup lynch option? No offense, but he is the type of player who often gets lynched pretty arbitrarily.

But of course, the most votes anyone has is 2 so there's plenty time to add more candidates on the table. I'm pretty curious about this actually, because yesterDay for instance the votes didn't spread very much despite the villge being huge. Wolves might have an interest in keeping the number of options small, regardless of whether one of them already has a vote or not.


edit: xed with #478 and onwards

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Okay could we please stop with the massive posts listing what people did in great detail, surely a point can be made more efficiently. If i ever mod a game, it will be with a tweet-version with a character and post cap for the participants.

Let's leave Kitanna for now, we all saw it, there was a reason we said nothing. Either she speaks truth (which I am inclined to believe) and the wolves will come for her eventually, or the real ranger comes forth and she will face quarantine.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

But it is also kind of entrancing, isn't it?

Please stop it.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Dangerous (Could vote, but not my first choice)
Kitanna - Not sure what to think of her now, but I haven't taken her off the hook completely.

But why? I understand that she is not your top suspect, but I still don't get it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel


Votes (2 hours before the DL)

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel

This basically means that cobbler voted Brinniel, right?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That's a remarkably safe position to take, especially since at the moment I'm the one with the most votes (how did this happen btw?) and Mac is the one who's probably overall garnered the most suspicion toDay.

edit: xed with Shasta and Pitch

Yes, but not from me. Anyways, Mac looks far from uncontroversial to me, but I don't like how suddenly half the villag - not the least people I suspect like Lottie etc - turned into suddenly serving Mac as the main meal of the day. It feels like it isn't healthy.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

This basically means that cobbler voted Brinniel, right?

Yes, likely. Or they agreed, which is also possible. See what I said some two posts back or something.

I'm at the moment strongly considering voting Brinn. Otherwise I thought to start a Huinesoron vote or somesuch, but I am not sure if anyone at all would go for it.

EDIT: xed since the Rune I quoted

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

I'm at the moment strongly considering voting Brinn. Otherwise I thought to start a Huinesoron vote or somesuch, but I am not sure if anyone at all would go for it.

I could go for either Mac or Brinn at this point. Both look suspicious to me, and knowing their roles would give us a lot more insight into several others (including each other).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I'm at the moment strongly considering voting Brinn. Otherwise I thought to start a Huinesoron vote or somesuch, but I am not sure if anyone at all would go for it.

I'm about done on a more thorough look of Lhuna. I was overall feeling good. I mean the Day 1 wasn't giving me anything, but really liked her point on Kit and response to Lottie. Agree with Lommy on how Lhuna's vote looks, but just about done with Lhuna's post.

Maybe too late and near DL to look through Huey for consideration today, but he's worth a thorough look.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Neutral:
Lommy
Leaning towards innocent. I thought she made a lot of sense in post 298. Might have made one or two safe-non commital comments on day 1, but it is hard not to.

Pitch
Yesterday I thought him innocent, but the Kitanna deal gets him relegated to this group.

Inzil
Mostly good vibes yesterday, less so today. Besides the ranger thing, I have nothing concrete.

The Ka
Leaning towards good. Seems insightful and helpful. Again nothing concrete.

Good
Legate
I haven't read all he says in detail, but what I have read is great. I agree with far more of his reasoning than I would normally care to admit. I am especially a fan of post 393 and 463.

Lhuna
I like her playing style okay. Anyways nothing has seemed out of character and seems helpful.

shasta
I like his playing style okay. Anyways nothing has seemed out of character and seems helpful.

Possibly Sinister
Loslote
I really get a bad vibe from Loslote, but to be honest 50% of her posts seem outright reasonable. The reason she still makes this list is that I did not care for her post 114 where she tried to keep the Legate-Pitch day 1 spat going, without commiting. In post 294 she seems to commit to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched, which i did not care for.

Brinniel
Same as yesterday. Her actions today doesn't do much in either direction. I like that she stick to her guns, but I am not convinced by her arguments.

Eönwe
Same as yesterday + the fact that he could vote Kitanna

No read
Hui
Kath
Boromir
Lalaith
Sally
Mac
Greenie

Also guys guess what happened?
I was reading a Lommy post and Joni Mitchell’s “Both Sides Now” came on.

[Lalaith]

It's all very well saying I'm quiet, people, but this is a noisy village. I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting Kit.
On the subject of which, I've been re-reading and found a couple of other people I feel quite good about.
Lottie

Shasta - I really like how he handled the Kit situation, trying to defuse it without drawing attention to it.

Good point, and it makes me think better of you too, for pointing it out.
I'm not happy about a lot of things including the current candidates for lynching, none of whom I'm particularly keen to vote for.
I thought Boro was less weird today but re-reading, he's still being weird. Stream of consciousness still strong. Look at this:

Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not.

This is an example. All he is saying here is "wolves are more interested in killing gifteds than framing innocents" and takes a looong paragraph to do it.
Also - there's not been enough focus on Pitch. He was the third person on Rikae's list but no-one's talking enough about him.
And finally -
Legate is still really suspicious to me. I still can't follow his reasoning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but on the one hand he's angry with people for talking about KitRanger but on the other he's putting her quite high on his suspect lists.