Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

This gets stranger and stranger. And scarier. What are all these noises meant to mean?

Well, it looks like Nogs was innocent after all, so I'm glad we didn't lynch him.
I've been thinking about what the Dead are trying to tell us (apart from the rather depressing fact that Lottie was innocent, as well). They seem to like the votes for Eonwe and Legate.
Also, if we are all still here - are we innocents still in a small majority? (5 versus 3, in that case?)
Or can the game not end until there is a Duel?

There clearly are not as many baddies as there could have been (which would be half by now, so the game would have ended). Which means that either we lynched some (which would have to be Boro), or they didn't make a Wolf every Night (or some combination of both).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

They must have thought he was a gifted/ the GW. It certainly isn't a no-trace kill, and it doesn't make sense as a frame.

It certainly isn't a kill of a "quiet player", that's for sure. He also talked basically about everyone. Although since you are saying it wouldn't make sense as a frame - that actually got me thinking why would you specifically say that, because I would not first even see people his death would point at, since he talked about everyone, let alone that it could somehow be a bluff to frame someone. But he got votes from you and Eönwë (and he could have gotten more votes, like I was all the time considering him, and I am pretty sure I wasn't the only one). But since you are so eager to downplay any connections, could Wolf-Nerwen or EW-Nerwen be so desperate (for whichever reason) to kill Nog to try to lynch him and then kill him when it didn't work out? But the reason is the problem there - it's the same problem as the idea that he was killed because they thought him to be a Gifted or a GW - it's all fine, but I don't think he behaved in any way "specially". Unless he voiced his opinion on somebody specific and it was spot on - but he was voicing his opinion on everything.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I wondered if they killed him as a scry - they might have wondered if he was the GW.
The wolves have, I suppose, two goes at a GW scry each Night - if they try to turn or kill the GW they get told they've found him/her, right?

It would make sense that way, too. Speaking of that, I would have expected a Wizard Duel by now. So maybe if the Wizards are sort of trying to maximise the amount of people they scry, since they somehow didn't manage to learn each other's identities yet?

But anyway, for me it is like back to the drawing board and I might try to look at the village freshly, because we can be like anywhere.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

There clearly are not as many baddies as there could have been (which would be half by now, so the game would have ended). Which means that either we lynched some (which would have to be Boro), or they didn't make a Wolf every Night (or some combination of both).

Eomer speculated yesterDay that the Night Four wolf-kill had been blocked by a Ranger-save and that the "buzzing" signalled the transformation of Mith into a Visitor. Seems we can rule that out- but then what did happen? A normal Wolf-kill + the EW's scrying/conversion being blocked? And what about Night Two and last Night? It must mean something that the "buzzing" only occurs on some Nights and not others. Note that it did not occur on the Night One, on which we know (or at least can assume) a wolf was created- so it doesn't mean that. Does it mean scrying? Does it indicate "streams crossing", so to speak- one power cancelling another out? Note also that the narrations on two of those nights seems to indicate something being thwarted. I'm harping on this because it may give us some clue *when* wolf-conversions occurred.

It certainly isn't a kill of a "quiet player", that's for sure. He also talked basically about everyone. Although since you are saying it wouldn't make sense as a frame - that actually got me thinking why would you specifically say that, because I would not first even see people his death would point at, since he talked about everyone, let alone that it could somehow be a bluff to frame someone. But he got votes from you and Eönwë (and he could have gotten more votes, like I was all the time considering him, and I am pretty sure I wasn't the only one). But since you are so eager to downplay any connections, could Wolf-Nerwen or EW-Nerwen be so desperate (for whichever reason) to kill Nog to try to lynch him and then kill him when it didn't work out? But the reason is the problem there - it's the same problem as the idea that he was killed because they thought him to be a Gifted or a GW - it's all fine, but I don't think he behaved in any way "specially". Unless he voiced his opinion on somebody specific and it was spot on - but he was voicing his opinion on everything.

My thought is that his "maybe evil" behaviour looked "maybe gifted/wizardy" to the wolves, who after all had the benefit of knowing what he *wasn't*.

And no, I'm not "eager to downplay" the possibility that I killed him, since from my point of view it isn't a possibility. Who do you think I am, Volo?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Eomer speculated yesterDay that the Night Four wolf-kill had been blocked by a Ranger-save and that the "buzzing" signalled the transformation of Mith into a Visitor. Seems we can rule that out- but then what did happen? A normal Wolf-kill + the EW's scrying/conversion being blocked? And what about Night Two and last Night? It must mean something that the "buzzing" only occurs on some Nights and not others. Note that it did not occur on the Night One, on which we know (or at least can assume) a wolf was created- so it doesn't mean that. Does it mean scrying? Does it indicate "streams crossing", so to speak- one power cancelling another out? Note also that the narrations on two of those nights seems to indicate something being thwarted. I'm harping on this because it may give us some clue *when* wolf-conversions occurred.

Yes, that's actually a good point. There is also the sentence about "many powers swirling around" in the second Night, which makes it seem like there were more things than usual, or something more dramatic happening.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

My thought is that his "maybe evil" behaviour looked "maybe gifted/wizardy" to the wolves, who after all had the benefit of knowing what he *wasn't*.

Well that could be the case, but it seems still fairly random to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And no, I'm not "eager to downplay" the possibility that I killed him, since from my point of view it isn't a possibility. Who do you think I am, Volo?

Well you would obviously know who you are, but it was that you dismissed it so noncommitally that struck me. Besides, it could have pointed at you as much as at Eönwë for the same reason (Nog also voted him and he had voiced some suspicion of Eönwë earlier), and you did not seem to consider that.

That all being said, considering how many of us are left, we obviously have baddies among people who have managed not to draw suspicion from the very beginning, and I am going to take a closer look at people I haven't found suspicious so far. The worst thing about this game is that we don't know about any roles of Wolves, which could offer some pointers as to who might be packmates with whom. Without that, it's really difficult to find Wolves who manage to remain looking innocent and don't do anything that would have clearly evil intent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well you would obviously know who you are, but it was that you dismissed it so noncommitally that struck me. Besides, it could have pointed at you as much as at Eönwë for the same reason (Nog also voted him and he had voiced some suspicion of Eönwë earlier), and you did not seem to consider that.

A wolf killing someone *just* for suspecting him at this point? When there could be a Hunter around? As I said, that scenario seems too weak even for a frame.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

'bzzzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzZZZZZzzz booOOOOOoop *fizzle*'

"Can you believe this?!" came a voice.

------

It would indeed be difficult to believe if this buzzing indicated GW and EW targeting same person 3 out of 5 nights, but it's a possibility. Obviously my visitor theory seems false now.

But what about this from Boro's lynch:

"Those who knew his head would sheer off were mad with glee."

What's this about? Who could have known he wasn't a wizard? Was he the one double-targeted on the previous night, and this info was passed along to the wolves? Maybe. Has there really only been 2 wolves this whole time?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eh.... the first two times the fizzle is accompanied with clanging and banging and a doink and a pop. Nothing like that last night. So there is maybe a difference.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A wolf killing someone *just* for suspecting him at this point? When there could be a Hunter around? As I said, that scenario seems too weak even for a frame.

Well as weak as all the others, anyway. That's what's wrong with the whole Nog's death.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Eh.... the first two times the fizzle is accompanied with clanging and banging and a doink and a pop. Nothing like that last night. So there is maybe a difference.

Last Night, there was not a doink but there was a fizzle. But some of those noises were marked in red, so maybe they could be in some way more relevant than the rest? Or signify something specific? In any case, looking at it, Night 3 was the only one that was generally quiet (and Night 1 obviously).

Anyway, I'm in a middle of things now so can't post anything long but hope I'll be able to post again soon with more thoughts.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

It would indeed be difficult to believe if this buzzing indicated GW and EW targeting same person 3 out of 5 nights, but it's a possibility. Obviously my visitor theory seems false now.

Btw it isn't possible that Nog could have been a Visitor and that a Ranger save took place toNight? Because that would explain the lack of red-marked words if they meant something else on the previous Nights. It would also explain the really weird fact of Nog dying of all people.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh and btw we should make a list for the Dead to vote on. Like:

BORO PREY
Nerwen
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

BORO PREDATOR
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Eönwë
Brinniel

(or upside-down, if we want to change the order again, or what have you)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

But what about this from Boro's lynch:

"Those who knew his head would sheer off were mad with glee."

What's this about? Who could have known he wasn't a wizard? Was he the one double-targeted on the previous night, and this info was passed along to the wolves? Maybe. Has there really only been 2 wolves this whole time?

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning away from Nog being the visitor, simply because I would have expected a Ranger save to be more strongly hinted at. This would mean it's the GW who keeps getting thwarted, because we haven't seen the visitor yet, suggesting that Boro was indeed a wolf and that it was the GW plus gifted who were happy that Boro was on the chopping block.

Wishful thinking maybe.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kuru, is deadline normal toDay?

It is, indeed.

I've had it asked of me separately so I will insert a few clarifications here.

1. The Evil Wizard counts in the Baddie column for tabulating the win.

2. Killing the Good Wizard is not per se a win condition of the Baddie side. Their win condition is to reduce the Goodies down to an equal or lower number than themselves.

3. The Goodie win condition is to eliminate all the Baddies, including the Evil Wizard.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One thing that could have happened - and correct me if I've read the rules wrong - the GW could have chosen a Wolf as the Visitor Who Leaves.
That way, I think, the wolf no longer counts as a living wolf, which is why we are all still here?

This is not correct. An individual can be a Wolf and a Visitor at the same time, but a Wolf would still count as a Baddie so long as they were still in the Living Thread. They would no longer count for that purpose once they became a Ghost on their return.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I suppose it's possible that the GW could have informed the gifted(s) that Boro was a wolf. In any case, Boro must have been targeted by both wizards. If they both did it the previous night, then it would be the EW/wolves mad with glee; same if the GW had got to him first. But if the EW had got to him first then it could be the GW/gifted mad with glee.

All right, new hypothesis based on complete guesswork around the narrations.

Night 1: nothing weird; everyone targets different people.

Night 2: Very loud buzzing, bang, fizzle, pop. 'Absolute silence' - the EW and the GW targeted same person. Nothing changes.

Night 3: same as Night 1.

Night 4: buzzing, whoosh, clang, doink, 'who put that there?' The other wizard targets Boro and is thwarted. 'Silence without stillness, swirling of many powers' - what is this.......

Night 5: buzzing, fizzle, nothing. Can you believe this?' 'That was the only noise in the night'. Wizard finds Wizard.

Well, *if* this interpretation is correct, Night 3 is the only Night on which a second wolf could have been created. Hmmn.

Edit: x'd with Eomer.