Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Based on the rules, I'm assuming we will find out who received the empowerment vote at the end of each Day regardless of whether that empowerment vote actually has an impact on the lynch. Am I correct on this?

Yes, empowerment is cheesily obvious regardless on if it has any sort of impact on the outcome.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

That is because the ideas that I have are based on two assumptions - one is that the Wizards cannot continue making roles once they are in the Dead Thread.

Correct. Their role creating abilities cease when they enter the Dead Thread.

The other is that a win for wolves and EW is the same as it is in an ordinary game, ie live wolves have to outnumber live villagers.
Are both my assumptions correct?

Equal to or outnumber.

[Boromir88]

Agree with only 3 groups, Zil was innocent, Zil was wolf, none of the above.

And moving forward agree with Nerwen that we should only ask the dead to check the lynchees (unless in the event of a hunter kill).

Knowing the lynchees alignment is in my opinion going to be more beneficial...and considering the delay of information the wolves might be bolder/aggressive in pursuing lynches than they would in a normal game where roles get revealed immediately.

Today is the one day the DL is going to suck for me. I may be able to return and vote, may not. Cheers.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Agree with only 3 groups, Zil was innocent, Zil was wolf, none of the above.

And moving forward agree with Nerwen that we should only ask the dead to check the lynchees (unless in the event of a hunter kill).

And hopefully we can have a visitor clear up any of the "none of the above" options we're left with in the future.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Well, that's why I was pushing so hard yesterDay for the village to agree to the plan (see the posts I quoted in my last post). If we'd all agreed on the Dead Thread voting for Inziladun, then him not self-voting would out him as a wolf anyway. That's why I was getting a bit frustrated yesterDay at people either ignoring the discussion, flat-out rejecting the idea, or saying we should wait until toDay to discuss it. And I suspect that while some of that was for practical/legitimate/non-evil reasons, there is at least one evil person hiding in that category.

You're right. It should've been discussed early yesterDay. I'm partially to blame as I should've taken the time to think about the Dead Thread more in the first half of the Day and grasp a better understanding of it (I finally did get a chance to peek at the Dead Thread of the last game with one to get a little better understanding of how it works...it wasn't until then I even realized the dead were allowed to post at Night). I didn't want to discuss the topic more at the end of yesterDay as I found that to be too much of a distraction when we needed to focus on who to lynch. I still stand by that.

Another option I can think of if we want to keep the list divided in two categories, is we can instruct the Dead Thread to use their empowerment vote toMorrow to communicate Inzil's role. The downside of that is we would be a Day behind on finding out roles if they already know Inzil's and toDay's empowerment vote would essentially have no meaning behind it.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

1. Everyone in the Dead Thread needs to be around around the deadline.
2. People would need to start voting earlier on the Living Thread so the Dead have time to discuss who is the best option out of those who have votes. I mean, I suppose they could agree to some kind of ranking, but I can imagine many ways in which that could get messed up.

And that is quite a problem. Because some people aren't ever able to be around at deadline and then there others who are only able to be active in the last few hours of the Day.

As for me, I can tell you that in most cases I am only able to be around during the first hours of the Day and then not again until the last hour or two.

On that note, I will be leaving for a day trip soon, though I should hopefully be back for the end of the Day. So I don't think I can add much more to the Dead Thread discussion toDay at least since once I return, I will need to focus on who to vote for.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So today's the day we could see the duel, eh? I had guessed that we would have been aware of a visitor by now.

[Nerwen]

Proposed Empowerment List

ZIL = PREY
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Eönwë
Lalaith

ZIL = PREDATOR
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Mithalwen
Nerwen

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Any objections?

[Lalaith]

Any objections?

Nope, that should give the Dead enough options to play with.
Btw - do they decide to empower before or after the votes?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Nope, that should give the Dead enough options to play with.
Btw - do they decide to empower before or after the votes?

It happens during the Day, so before/during the votes- but we won't know until afterwards.

Originally Posted by The Rules

After there are TWO residents of the Dead Thread, every DAY the dead get to vote on giving one of the living an extra vote. The dead are subject to the same deadline as the living. The living will not know who among them will get an extra vote until it is revealed in the closing narration of the DAY.

[Pervinca Took]

No objections.

[Lalaith]

So the Dead will empower someone BEFORE they know what way that person is voting or if indeed that person is going to vote at all?

[Mithalwen]

At the risk of seeming a complete cow the extra bod should go in the last category if it must be Alphabetical order has clumped unreliable voters with a debutant player which the Dead may not find ideal. Sign up order would be preferable. Otherwise I would agree to anything just to get a different topic of conversation. I am about ready to do a Boro. Is this a personality trait to be so obsessive or some kind of distraction technique?

[Lalaith]

a different topic of conversation

Darling Mith, you're about to get one, I'm going to be posting something about the Wizards and the roles and stuff very shortly....

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Proposed Empowerment List

ZIL = PREY
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Eönwë
Lalaith

ZIL = PREDATOR
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Mithalwen
Nerwen

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Any objections?

Starting the day with this so I don't forget. This sounds fine.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lommy cast suspicion on Loslote very early on.

Eonwe calls Lommy out for this.

Interestingly, on Day 2, Lommy was then the first to jump onto Loslote's suggestion that Eonwe had 'changed' in Day 2 (post #221) and proceeded to cast the first vote for Eonwe.

Even on Day 1 (post #61) she brings the same thing up, making this comment for Eonwe: "if I was dead I'd empower him" The explicit nature of this comment is fascinating.

My thinking is that the second lynch seems like more of a set-up than the first.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Apologies, I meant the second night-kill, not lynch. Meaning Lommy's death sets up Eonwe.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So the Dead will empower someone BEFORE they know what way that person is voting or if indeed that person is going to vote at all?

Before or after, I think - they simply vote at any time they want, and during the final calculation, it is all taken into account.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Proposed Empowerment List

ZIL = PREY
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Eönwë
Lalaith

ZIL = PREDATOR
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Mithalwen
Nerwen

NONE OF THE ABOVE
Nogrod
Pervinca Took
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin

Any objections?

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

At the risk of seeming a complete cow the extra bod should go in the last category if it must be Alphabetical order has clumped unreliable voters with a debutant player which the Dead may not find ideal. Sign up order would be preferable.

At the risk, I actually see what Mith means here. But maybe we should just try not to let this fall into another two-hour debate and hope the Dead would be able to pick somebody? I mean Pervinca is a new player, sure, Nog's opinion on the whole thing notwithstanding he is probably going to vote, Shasta has posted thus can be expected to vote, Sally likewise plus she needs to vote so she doesn't get modfired... I think we could leave it at that. (Also I don't want to now spend more time researching what was the signup order etc. But maybe we can use it toMorrow?)

Originally Posted by Mith

Otherwise I would agree to anything just to get a different topic of conversation. I am about ready to do a Boro. Is this a personality trait to be so obsessive or some kind of distraction technique?

It's important, but once we get this done, we can focus on the Day's content and all. It's next on my list.

EDIT: x-ed with two Eomers

[Mithalwen]

I know it is important but it is now 2/3 of the way through the day and we have not really discussed much that will affect our votes today in favour of finding something out after day's end.

[Lalaith]

Anyway, here are my thoughts about the wizards...as we are on Day 3 which I believe is technically the first day we could see a Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel.

For both EW and GW, as far as I read the rules, creating roles is as good as scrying - because trying to 'turn' the other wizard will reveal them.
For the GW, Gifted are a nice bonus but not essential to winning. At the beginning of the game, the numbers are on his/her side.
However, the EW, to improve chances of victory, needs to make as many wolves as possible and keep them live if s/he can.
So not creating wolves some nights or rushing to send wolves to the Dead Thread would be rather reckless policy and I am going to assume that the EW has been creating all the wolves s/he can.
(From this, it would also follow that even if the EW discovers the GW s/he might hold fire on the duel, and would be more worried about keeping their identity hidden.)

So, at this stage, therefore, after three Nights, chances are we could have the maximum permitted pack of wolves (ie 3) in our midst - the EW would be creating or at least trying to, each night. Of course, any one of following things could mean we have fewer than 3:
* if Zil was a wolf
* if there is a Ranger and s/he protected another player from conversion
* if the EW tried to turn a gifted
* if the EW tried to turn the GW

Anyway, the other thing I was thinking was that the baddies might be worried by now about a Hunter being amongst us. They killed Lommy, and Lommy suspected Zil and Nerwen, also Eonwe who she voted for. Presumably, the wolves killed her without worry that a Hunter-Lommy might take one of them down. So, should we feel less worried about Eonwe and Nerwen as a result of this?

And finally - this is directed at my fellow innocents - if you haven't been turned yet, it might be worth wondering why. The wolves wouldn't necessarily want a new member of the pack suddenly turning their suspicions around.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Anyway, the other thing I was thinking was that the baddies might be worried by now about a Hunter being amongst us. They killed Lommy, and Lommy suspected Zil and Nerwen, also Eonwe who she voted for. Presumably, the wolves killed her without worry that a Hunter-Lommy might take one of them down. So, should we feel less worried about Eonwe and Nerwen as a result of this?

Maybe slightly, but there's still only a 1/13 chance of hitting a Hunter at this point. Is there any evidence of Lommy changing her behaviour in a way that makes her seem more huntery?

The really cynical and paranoid part of me wonders whether this could be a wolf-Lalaith (potentially a newly-wolfed Lalaith, because she didn't seem suspicious to me yesterDay) attempting to make a fellow wolf-Nerwen seem more innocent by grouping her with others. Like a strong version of the 'a wolf wouldn't pick someone who leads back to them'.

The problem in this game is that now potentially just under half of the living (6/13) have a role they didn't start off with, so I'm just seeing potential new wolves everywhere. I think I need some time to reread.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Equal to or outnumber.

Another question for Kuru: If both wizards are still living, does 'equal to or outnumber' include the EW?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

On which note, a question for Kuru: Will it be clear from the narration whether someone is killed or is a Visitor Who Leaves?

I wouldn't indicate who was who, but there would be two people going into the Dead Thread at once (probably) so it should be fairly apparent something odd has happened.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Another question for Kuru: If both wizards are still living, does 'equal to or outnumber' include the EW?

Yes.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I wouldn't indicate who was who, but there would be two people going into the Dead Thread at once (probably) so it should be fairly apparent something odd has happened.

Now that sounds like a very stressful Night on the Dead Thread - if I'm reading the rules correctly, the Dead can only vote to find out the role of someone currently in their thread, and this means they'll only get one chance to attempt to guess which of the two dead is the Visitor (before the Visitor returns to the Living Thread).

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Yes.

Ok, so that means worst-case scenario now we have a 4:9 evil:good ratio with the EW still having one wolf pick to spare!

[Mithalwen]

So is the plan final? If so should it not be made clear to the Dead?
maybe with a reference to the post in which the settled version is.

I thought I merely had allergic rhinitis but I have some sort of summer bug, and feel grim so would prefer to have an early night so I may have to make an early decision. So I suppose looking for differences is the thing to look at.. and then the odd spread vote followed by bandwagon. Heyho

[Lalaith]

Mith, continuing with the new topics of conversation - on Day One you strongly suspected Lottie and voted for her but on Day Two you mostly suspected (and voted for) Zil.
How do you feel about Lottie at the moment?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Mith, continuing with the new topics of conversation - on Day One you strongly suspected Lottie and voted for her but on Day Two you mostly suspected (and voted for) Zil.
How do you feel about Lottie at the moment?

I didn't stop suspecting her. I just put her on the back burner since Inziladun was hacking me off with his negativity. I was a little surprised so many also voted for him since I don't think they all expressed strong views during the day. Loslote IIRC didn't engage with my suspicions - which can be a wolf tactic but agreed with me enough to find it a bit creepy as I think I said. I don't think she has posted today so I will look back and see if I still find her suspicious in context of subsequent events. And who supported their vote. I can appreciate the risk of cross posts but it may be suspect in some.

[Lalaith]

Right, because it's a quiet Saturday for me and I'm not at work, I've been able to be a much more conscientious player. So much so that I've read through the whole bally thread all over again.
The reason I asked about Lottie is because I can see, reading over the thread again, more clearly where the suspicions about her were coming from and I've moved her further up my suspect list as a result.
I still feel very uncomfortable about Boro and would probably have voted for him toDay but he says that he might not be back toDay. For various reasons I feel uncomfortable with voting for someone in absentia.
I'm feeling more paranoid today - more baddies about. I trust fewer of you. Some old friends - Mith, Nogs - would have been good candidates for turning, I think. Eonwe too - he survived the "has Eonwe turned" attacks yesterday and this might make him a good candidate for turning last Night. Except of course that puts my "wolves feared Lommy was a Hunter" theory on its head. Hmmm.