Hard Winters Planning/Discussion Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Also, doing some research on previous harsh winters, the Long Winter in Rohan lasted November-March with Rohan under snow for five months - the winter described in Nogrod's post sounds like snow cover for seven (October-May), so we're talking about by far the worst winter in Rohan's history.

I don't want to criticize the work you've done, Nogrod, since I really appreciate it, but I just wanted to put in perspective how bad of a winter we're talking about (maybe snow cover from November to March as in the Long Winter just doesn't seem like a very harsh winter to a Finn, lol - actually, it doesn't seem that absurd to me, either...).

I was about to point that out, too. I think it's just Finnish thinking In normal countries (well, okay, in countries in latitude and climate similar to Rohan, anyway), winter would last December to February, and snow starts to appear/melts away in average sometime in December/March (say mid-March, meaning those tiny patches on the ground here and there). It can appear for a day in November or March, but any other month there is something weird. And again, in the age of peasants tilling their not-very-extensively-farmed fields with whatever they can, even a hail just before harvest can cause serious problem, and even a few weeks difference in the snow's coming can be disasterous. A month should do it. Also, since I am talking about it, temperatures below 0°C are also sufficient (for the benefit of Finns who might start suggesting -20 is too warm. Between 0°C to -10°C is totally enough! It's just needed that the snow doesn't melt!).

Originally Posted by Firefoot

An interesting point that seems relevant whatever way we go though, also about the Long Winter: "The melted snow caused great floods with the Entwash becoming a vast fen." Seeing as Scarburg is quite near the Entwash...

Something to look forward to in a couple of weeks of our RPG, then

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also, since I am talking about it, temperatures below 0°C are also sufficient (for the benefit of Finns who might start suggesting -20 is too warm. Between 0°C to -10°C is totally enough! It's just needed that the snow doesn't melt!).

It just has to be enough to be colder than usual - anyone wants to take an estimate? But if it's only like -10C, I doubt there would be serious amputation-meriting frostbite cases. Mild ones are possible, and cases of being cold all the time (and therefore all the consequences of that, including a low immune response ) would be very common due to lack of appropriate clothing (shapka-ushankas weren't yet invented, I presume ). But perhaps there was a period of extreme cold that only lasted less than a week, not the whole winter. So if anyone is still considering frostbite, this is a possible explanation. If we're going to go for it, I might have Ledwyn blacken a minor body part to make her further unstable.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

It just has to be enough to be colder than usual - anyone wants to take an estimate? But if it's only like -10C, I doubt there would be serious amputation-meriting frostbite cases. Mild ones are possible, and cases of being cold all the time (and therefore all the consequences of that, including a low immune response ) would be very common due to lack of appropriate clothing (shapka-ushankas weren't yet invented, I presume ). But perhaps there was a period of extreme cold that only lasted less than a week, not the whole winter. So if anyone is still considering frostbite, this is a possible explanation. If we're going to go for it, I might have Ledwyn blacken a minor body part to make her further unstable.

Totally not a problem, I am sure. I was talking about temperatures during the day, temperatures during the night could drop much further. Also, it is totally okay if you have a single night, or even day, when the temperatures are really low (even if it's been -8°C the whole winter, one day you can have suddenly a 20-degrees drop just because the weather is messy), you go out to the forest without proper clothing, or a badger steals your gloves, then you return late and get lost, come home late at night, and whoops, and you have a good start for having some body part amputated eventually

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Totally not a problem, I am sure. I was talking about temperatures during the day, temperatures during the night could drop much further. Also, it is totally okay if you have a single night, or even day, when the temperatures are really low (even if it's been -8°C the whole winter, one day you can have suddenly a 20-degrees drop just because the weather is messy), you go out to the forest without proper clothing, or a badger steals your gloves, then you return late and get lost, come home late at night, and whoops, and you have a good start for having some body part amputated eventually

I can think of at least 3 Jack London stories dedicated to precisely that. Except his freezing stories often involve falling/stepping into a hidden creek that does not freeze even in the coldest temperatures, which isn't likely in the SMH whereabouts.

Also, forgot to mention - the fifth year that appears to be missing is the pretty uneventful year at the very start when the building of the Hall is finished. So if we want to stick to the 5 year jump timeline, it could be tacked on briefly. If not, I'll edit my Ledwyn post to reflect that, since I believe it mentions that year.

[Firefoot]

I think someone said Rohan was sort of similar to France, so here are the temperature profiles of a Lyon and Dijon (I literally know nothing about Europe but they look pretty inland and close-ish to mountains to seems comparable to Rohan geographically):

Lyon

Dijon

So actually, I think the temperature profile proposed by Nogrod isn't too bad, maybe just gets a little too cold too fast and lingers a bit too long. But in the middle of winter, I would definitely say -20 C as a low isn't unreasonable.

Two winters ago, Chicago had one of the worst winters in its recorded weather history, where we alternated weeks basically where it would be about 25 F/-4 C and snow heavily, then drop to a high of about 5 F/ -15 C. The alternating dumping snow and bitter cold temperatures was brutal (and this is a city used to having snow on the ground all the time from late Dec - mid March). Geographically, we're not similar to Rohan, but we're pretty similar to France in latitude.

Also, it doesn't necessarily have to be that cold for frostbite to occur - you just have to be exposed for longer if it's less cold. (I had one patient who just liked walking barefoot in the snow... guess what, he lost one of his feet. )

(Aren't you guys proud of me? I even converted temperature scales for you )

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I can think of at least 3 Jack London stories dedicated to precisely that. Except his freezing stories often involve falling/stepping into a hidden creek that does not freeze even in the coldest temperatures, which isn't likely in the SMH whereabouts.

I was just thinking the same

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I think someone said Rohan was sort of similar to France, so here are the temperature profiles of a Lyon and Dijon (I literally know nothing about Europe but they look pretty inland and close-ish to mountains to seems comparable to Rohan geographically):

Lyon

Dijon

So actually, I think the temperature profile proposed by Nogrod isn't too bad, maybe just gets a little too cold too fast and lingers a bit too long. But in the middle of winter, I would definitely say -20 C as a low isn't unreasonable.

Two winters ago, Chicago had one of the worst winters in its recorded weather history, where we alternated weeks basically where it would be about 25 F/-4 C and snow heavily, then drop to a high of about 5 F/ -15 C. The alternating dumping snow and bitter cold temperatures was brutal (and this is a city used to having snow on the ground all the time from late Dec - mid March). Geographically, we're not similar to Rohan, but we're pretty similar to France in latitude.

Also, it doesn't necessarily have to be that cold for frostbite to occur - you just have to be exposed for longer if it's less cold. (I had one patient who just liked walking barefoot in the snow... guess what, he lost one of his feet.)

(Aren't you guys proud of me? I even converted temperature scales for you )

We definitely are And yes, I was also thinking more or less some places in France are reasonable: exactly, the proximity to mountains, also to the sea (at least relatively, Rohan is a bit more inland in general, but then again France is big enough to account for the inland climate). Also comparing to other similar places that's what I would expect to have similar climate, more or less.

[Mithalwen]

And a country not geared up for regular substantial snows will be hit worse than people having the same weather in a place used to it. I spent my year abroad for my degree in St Etienne in the Massif Central of France. It was allegedly the first place to get snow in the winter and was certainly very cold between Christmas and Easter - I can't remember snow at Christmas and I think I would have done since a White Christmas is something I have always hoped to experience but just doesn't usually fit with UK weather... even when we had a very bad winter a few years ago it didn't quite happen.. However there was a lot of snow 3 months later in March when my family came to visit though not everywhere.. the town in its valley was clear and Lyon was quite hot the day we went there, as was Le Puy where it was actually very warm - I was never so fit before or since and had turned into a "Mountain goat" and remember basking in the sun waiting for my father and sister to complete the climb up to the chapel.. but the day we went higher up into the national park there was a lot of deep snow.. so much so that we turned back.

Anyway do the old hands have any preference for Elfthain being new or a Scarburg "intern" of a few years standing? I may have to alter his age but he may be just 17 istead of nearly 18 I will have to check his birthday with his mum

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And again, in the age of peasants tilling their not-very-extensively-farmed fields with whatever they can, even a hail just before harvest can cause serious problem, and even a few weeks difference in the snow's coming can be disasterous. A month should do it.

I like the idea of a hail storm a lot - make it more realistic that the food shortage be more localized to the Scarburg area.

[littlemanpoet]

On the RPG thread itself, we'll need to describe weather conditions without the benefit of all the modern amenities we're so used to, such as temperature, fronts, patterns, and all that. We may want to consider developing a vocabulary we can use, or have our copies of LotR and The Hobbit ready to hand so we can see what Tolkien did.

One tool will be to describe the weather from the perspective of your character: how does it feel? What is seen? Heard? tasted? smelled?

[Mithalwen]

Good point LMP. I knew I was in a previously unexperienced level of cold when my hair froze on the short walk between swimming pool and hall of residence in St Et. And one year when I was very young at home the sea started to freeze.

[Galadriel55]

When I was little(er), I tried to estimate if the temperature is below -20C (around -4F I believe) by the way my eyelashes froze together for a bit every time I blinked. I eventually abandoned the task because of inconsistent results (wind chill, most likely).

Also, the winter before last I had to walk around a lot when it was -20 and windy, so I made use of hood and scarves to the point where I joked that I looked like a polar talibani - you could barely see any of my face except for my eyes.

But lets also imagine that our characters don't have modern jackets and snowpants. Would they have fur coats? I don't think so. I can't see Rohirrim wearing them. (Also, wasn't it the end of winter when Aragorn&co came there in TTT? They didn't appear too cold without coats, and no snow). So without proper clothing and some wind, milder temperatures would be just as fearsome. Perhaps no freezing eyelashes, but freezing bodies for sure.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

On the RPG thread itself, we'll need to describe weather conditions without the benefit of all the modern amenities we're so used to, such as temperature, fronts, patterns, and all that. We may want to consider developing a vocabulary we can use, or have our copies of LotR and The Hobbit ready to hand so we can see what Tolkien did.

One tool will be to describe the weather from the perspective of your character: how does it feel? What is seen? Heard? tasted? smelled?

Certainly. Well, let's simply have The Ring Goes South open at hand, and maybe a few chapters about Túrin and co., I think (at Faelivrin and whatnot).

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

But lets also imagine that our characters don't have modern jackets and snowpants. Would they have fur coats? I don't think so. I can't see Rohirrim wearing them. (Also, wasn't it the end of winter when Aragorn&co came there in TTT? They didn't appear too cold without coats, and no snow). So without proper clothing and some wind, milder temperatures would be just as fearsome. Perhaps no freezing eyelashes, but freezing bodies for sure.

That's exactly it. Imagine, Rohan is really quite mild. There was no snow left at the end of February, and I have no reason to assume the year of the War of the Ring was in some way dramatically warmer than otherwise. So, imagine the shock when there actually is snow on top of it being normally cold like usually in winter, or maybe even a bit colder.

The whole difference of our Hard Winter and the normal conditions in Rohan can really be in the fact that there is the snow, which people may not be used to that much, or may not be used to it lasting. Certainly not used to any huge snowdrifts or snowstorms which take a couple of days. That's a weather phenomenon which can simply randomly happen one year, a set of really bad circumstances.

I imagine normal Rohan to be windy, it being such an open space, and the wind in winter would be cold, but usually - given that Rohan is protected by the mountains from the west and south - usually the wind would come from the east and it would be dry (because it is coming from the mainland), so there wouldn't be that much precipitation to cause large amounts of snow falling when the temperatures are below zero. But if, in our case, there simply came unusually more clouds from the west - from the sea, heavy with water - which obviously happens from time to time, but in our case it just maybe happened on a bit larger scale - you can get a large amount of precipitation; snowfall for days. And then, instead of leaving, some of the clouds can be stopped by the mountains and sort of keep rotating in place and hitting especially the valleys below - which could kinda be also the case of Midemnet - with more snow until basically everything falls down. And then, after the sky has cleared, you can have these very bright, but therefore also very cold days with cold wind from the East, when the temperatures are so low and people are just shivering and rattling their teeth and crust forms on top of the snow and it never melts.

[piosenniel]

Here's an interesting read from an online science-oriented compendium:

"An Appreciation of Weather in the Lord of the Rings" - HERE
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From the PBS NewsHour - Science section:

"Climate models turn the weather in Tolkien's Hobbit into science" - HERE
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And just for the fun of using such words:

The Encyclopedia of Arda - Old and Rare Words Used in Tolkien's Works - HERE

[Firefoot]

I like pio's weather article so well that I will even forgive the author for mistaking Asfaloth for Shadowfax.