Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Boromir88]

At least, we can be certain Agan is the Hunter, and therefor hopefully her trap struck a Greeniewolf. Also, I can use this to start forming better suspicions, since over 2 days she attracted a lot of votes and perhas there's a wolf or more to spot from the Agan voters.

The other thing, I hope the Dead knows someone's role from the Nog, phantom, Rune and Greenie group. Any ideas on which of the four they would have voted to find out?

Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?

As of yesterDay they had a quorum, but I didn't see anything in the narrations to show who they might have voted on. And since they didn't have any additional information, they might well have decided to hold off until toDay to act.

[Firefoot]

Are we quite certain, then, that Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?

Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct.

The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent).

A look at the voting...

Lommy, Mac, and McCaber voted for Agan twice.

Eomer and Boro were the only two to vote for both Nog and Agan. Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both Nog and Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right?

I still think there's a solid possibility Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me, morm, and Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder.

[Boromir88]

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Confusing stuff!

So: the Hunter. In this game, whoever is targeted by the Hunter dies - as I read the rules. So (presuming Agan was indeed the Hunter, as the narration suggests) we know nothing about Green's role?

The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Rikae kill doesn't surprise me at all - much like the phantom, she seemed like a level-headed village leader, and, given that there are two wolf packs, it's no wonder that they've both been killed off, no matter their true identities.

The Legate kill doesn't surprise me either - I suspect he was a villain and that his wolvish adversaries thought the same.

The Mac kill is most strange. There was a lot of heat on him. Perhaps he got too near the bone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Question about the Lovers (which may well have been asked already earlier in the thread before I had come to grips with the rules, but oh well):

Say we choose to lynch a revealed Lover. Then they can go get info from the Dead Thread - info on one dead player from yesterday, today's, as well as tomorrow's, then return to us the day after with what they know.

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Question about the Lovers (which may well have been asked already earlier in the thread before I had come to grips with the rules, but oh well):

Say we choose to lynch a revealed Lover. Then they can go get info from the Dead Thread - info on one dead player from yesterday, today's, as well as tomorrow's, then return to us the day after with what they know.

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.

It is an interesting thought though. If they come back regardless of the outcome of their other lover it would likely be worth it. It does take away the potential for a wolf kill but has the potential to add some substantial information which we are sorely lacking at this point.

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

But is that dependent on the other Lover remaining alive all that time? What if the other Lover dies the next night? Is it then impossible for the first Lover to come back to the land of the living? Might be a risky plan.

Actually, I think this is just answered in the rules:

if one of them dies, and if the other lover remains alive in the Living Thread, the dead lover will spend one DAY cycle among the dead and then returns to the Living Thread for one DAY.

Italics mine.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So, no bonus votes were given out yesterDAY, huh?

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

(At some point we will have less extra-vote getters than possibilities, not to mention the chance of a Seer being Dead and doing revealing things in the thread, but for the moment we have enough for them to convey their information as completely as possible. We can trim down this method in future DAYs.)

(And I do hope the Lovers and the Ranger are still alive.)

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

So you're suggesting something along the lines of, "if Nogrod is innocent, double x person's vote, if he's not, double y person's vote, etc."? This seems reasonable to me, in that it would be a way to get a very clear message across, and would limit the discussion tomorrow about what they were trying to imply. On the other hand, it does limit them. There's a reasonable chance that the seer is dead (40% ish) - what if they'd rather send a message about someone who's still alive? Then again, as soon as they give us a known innocent, I feel like they become a wolf target - then again, what if both packs then attack the same person? What if neither does, hoping the other will? Or the Ranger protects that person? So it wouldn't be a totally bad thing, I guess. I can go along with either strategy - giving the Dead clear guidelines, or letting them give information as they want to.

[Firefoot]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

This makes a lot of sense to me as well.

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.

Interesting thought about Rune and phantom. No one voted for either of them on Day 1, so if that was true I think it would be untied to the vote (compared to Mac who was the number 2 vote getter). I think that what strikes me about the hint of an itch is that it's not necessarily something you're aware of - scratching can be sort of an absent-minded thing. I wonder if the bonus role person knows that they're the mystery role?

Or maybe one of the wolves just has fleas.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

There was an exchange between Mac and Aganzir yesterDay.
#261 She ironically thanks him for at least considering she might be gifted before voting her on Day One.
#281 He says, "I didn't consider it, I dismissed it."
#328 She says, "Well, Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the real Seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do."
#331 He says, "If I was the Seer, I wouldn't be *almost* sure you're a wolf."

Now, if we take the events of yesterDay to mean Agan was the Hunter, which I'm inclined to do, then I'd say she was right that Mac *couldn't* have been the Seer, or he wouldn't have gone after an unknown so strongly. I don't see why this would look any different to the wolves (or special role). Therefore it seems likely whoever killed him had some other, particularly good reason for doing so. Unless someone can find a "Ranger hint" or "Lover hint" in his posting- I certainly can't- I'm going to go with the assumption that he was killed as a suspected wolf. Besides, it matches my existing bias. This in turn suggests to me that his killer was more likely to be the mysterious special role ( though this is now getting very speculative).

x'd since Eomer at #412.

[Firefoot]

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Since Legate posted his list very clearly, I'll copy it here:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath

He seems like an unlikely seer candidate based on this. The people in his Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

(…)

The people in his Legate’s] Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

“If he’d dreamed of them as a wolf?” ??? What were you trying to say there?

Anyway, I’m not sure I agree with you about Legate's “Green Zone”– the Seer’s Night One dream (or dreams, in this case) have to be either random or based on general principles (e.g. a player regarded as “scary” or “confusing”), and Lommy had anyway been in the middle of a controversy on Day One.

Why don’t you think Rikae was a likely candidate?

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

It may well be… I’ll think about it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilp

So, no bonus votes were given out yesterDAY, huh?

And any plan of co-ordinating the information exchange with the Dead thread? Assuming they believe Agan is the Hunter, then there are only 4 possible scry targets:

Nogrod
the phantom
A Little Green
Rune Son of Bjarne

I believe there's a small chance of Rune getting scried (unless something really interesting happened), but let's count him in just to be safe.

There are two possible results per person, so unless a higher mathematical power contradicts me, we need eight different ways for them to convey any of the possible data points they have.

(At some point we will have less extra-vote getters than possibilities, not to mention the chance of a Seer being Dead and doing revealing things in the thread, but for the moment we have enough for them to convey their information as completely as possible. We can trim down this method in future DAYs.)

(And I do hope the Lovers and the Ranger are still alive.)

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

EDIT:X’d with Nilp.