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Old 06-05-2015, 05:12 PM   #1
Mithalwen
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Has to be known unknown surely? Some sort of assassin maybe. Assuming Agan was the Hunter. I have sleep to do now. Will return anon and hopefully an unhealthy breakfast and coffee will help.
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Old 06-05-2015, 05:17 PM   #2
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Ouchee...that's 5 deaths in one Day/Night turn.

Agan must have been the Hunter...I'm just hoping there's a few wolves in this bloodbath over the last 24 hours.
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Old 06-05-2015, 05:43 PM   #3
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Man, something strange must have gone down last night. Also assuming that Agan was the Hunter and brought Greenie down with her, have we heard any whispers of where the third kill came from? If we can get a better bead on which two were from wolves, it might help give us some additional leads on this mysterious third party (whom I am holding responsible for the third kill until further notice). As far as I know Kuru hasn't even told us which side they're on.
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Old 06-05-2015, 05:47 PM   #4
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At least, we can be certain Agan is the Hunter, and therefor hopefully her trap struck a Greeniewolf. Also, I can use this to start forming better suspicions, since over 2 days she attracted a lot of votes and perhas there's a wolf or more to spot from the Agan voters.

The other thing, I hope the Dead knows someone's role from the Nog, phantom, Rune and Greenie group. Any ideas on which of the four they would have voted to find out?

Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?
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Old 06-05-2015, 05:52 PM   #5
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Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?
As of yesterDay they had a quorum, but I didn't see anything in the narrations to show who they might have voted on. And since they didn't have any additional information, they might well have decided to hold off until toDay to act.
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Old 06-05-2015, 06:41 PM   #6
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Are we quite certain, then, that Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?

Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct.

The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent).

A look at the voting...

Lommy, Mac, and McCaber voted for Agan twice.

Eomer and Boro were the only two to vote for both Nog and Agan. Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both Nog and Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right?

I still think there's a solid possibility Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me, morm, and Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder.

Last edited by Firefoot; 06-05-2015 at 07:52 PM. Reason: Typo
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Old 06-05-2015, 06:52 PM   #7
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If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?

I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:02 PM   #8
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Confusing stuff!

So: the Hunter. In this game, whoever is targeted by the Hunter dies - as I read the rules. So (presuming Agan was indeed the Hunter, as the narration suggests) we know nothing about Green's role?

The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that?
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:06 PM   #9
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The Rikae kill doesn't surprise me at all - much like the phantom, she seemed like a level-headed village leader, and, given that there are two wolf packs, it's no wonder that they've both been killed off, no matter their true identities.

The Legate kill doesn't surprise me either - I suspect he was a villain and that his wolvish adversaries thought the same.

The Mac kill is most strange. There was a lot of heat on him. Perhaps he got too near the bone?
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:06 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?
This makes a lot of sense to me as well.

Quote:
I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.
Interesting thought about Rune and phantom. No one voted for either of them on Day 1, so if that was true I think it would be untied to the vote (compared to Mac who was the number 2 vote getter). I think that what strikes me about the hint of an itch is that it's not necessarily something you're aware of - scratching can be sort of an absent-minded thing. I wonder if the bonus role person knows that they're the mystery role?

Or maybe one of the wolves just has fleas.
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Old 06-05-2015, 08:56 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Boromir88 View Post
If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.

As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue?
There was an exchange between Mac and Aganzir yesterDay.
#261 She ironically thanks him for at least considering she might be gifted before voting her on Day One.
#281 He says, "I didn't consider it, I dismissed it."
#328 She says, "Well, Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the real Seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do."
#331 He says, "If I was the Seer, I wouldn't be *almost* sure you're a wolf."

Now, if we take the events of yesterDay to mean Agan was the Hunter, which I'm inclined to do, then I'd say she was right that Mac *couldn't* have been the Seer, or he wouldn't have gone after an unknown so strongly. I don't see why this would look any different to the wolves (or special role). Therefore it seems likely whoever killed him had some other, particularly good reason for doing so. Unless someone can find a "Ranger hint" or "Lover hint" in his posting- I certainly can't- I'm going to go with the assumption that he was killed as a suspected wolf. Besides, it matches my existing bias. This in turn suggests to me that his killer was more likely to be the mysterious special role ( though this is now getting very speculative).

x'd since Eomer at #412.
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Old 06-05-2015, 09:34 PM   #12
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So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:

Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role
the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows?
Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure
Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter?
A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me
Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group
Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure

It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for.

Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent.

Since Legate posted his list very clearly, I'll copy it here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc View Post
GREEN ZONE
Nerwen - no change from yesterDay, reasonable, no trouble and all
Lommy - more or less likewise
Mith - certainly no Wolfy vibes, seems like her innocent self

YELLOW ZONE
Macalaure - see the end of my post above, also his vote yesterDay was of the type easily cast by a Wolf (of course if we knew the roles of the lynchees, it would be easier to make more conclusions based on this, e.g. if that was a save attempt or whatever. But it was a bandwagon in any case and Mac was in the thick of it.)
Rikae - kind of a similar case, has certainly commited and reasonable posts; it is true she could totally be following some very well-thought sneaky hidden agenda with them. But I do not have enough that would make me cast a vote for her so far.
Lalaith - toDay pretty decent, and the point about the possible mention of a hidden role was good; of course a Wolf could try to ask info from the village as well, but still, makes me think better of her
Morm - there was the last post, but otherwise seems fairly good and reasonable and all
McCaber - mostly it's about the vote: he is the same case as Mac, a vote placement that would be typical for a Wolf on a wagon.
Nilp - I still have the "fishy-fishy" feel from his posts, but it really isn't anything concrete.
Sally - I don't find her suspicious, the stuff morm also pointed out was weird, but not necessarily suspicious in my opinion.
shasta - at times there's been a bit of "meh", but generally not Wolfy-looking.
Form - I have been convinced by the idea that a Wolf wouldn't self-vote, although I am kind of beginning to waver, also with the possibilities that the following wagons were attempt to save him. I am still not very sure I believe that would be the way for the Wolves to behave, though. In any case, I need to Form a better opinion on him (ho, ho, ho).
Eomer - I need to Eomer a better opinion on him (*embarassed cough*). There is just quite little for me to go with.

ORANGE ZONE
Boro - I don't know. He is behaving very... unconspicuously in this game? A bit too noncommital, which worries me.
Firefoot - see also my post above. Could just as well be in the yellow zone though, it is more a matter of distinction, I think it would be nice to reread the posts etc to get better opinion, but that's about it.
Loslote - I didn't like the sorta defensive attitude adopted in her reaction to morm's reaction to sally.
Aganzir - I am wary of her, but to be honest not to any large extent. It is also partly the traditional anti-Aganzir precaution, because every time I give her a pass, then she is guilty. But just for the record, if one of the packs has her and Greenie, then shame on you, Kuru, because that's like the oldest pack in the book. (If it was her and Lommy yesterDay doing a wolf-on-wolf show, though, then that's at least new trick in the book.)

RED ZONE
Curiously enough it seems the only file in this zone seems to be A Little Green, as I stated above: the very happy, nice attitude, combined with noncommital posts which at the same time include subtle nudges a la "the exchange between sally and morm is suspicious, just so that you know, village, but I didn't say anything".

GREY ZONE aka effective no-shows
Gwath
Kath
He seems like an unlikely seer candidate based on this. The people in his Green Zone, where I would expect a seer to put innocents they dreamed about, seem like unlikely targets for a dream. Similarly, I might expect him to argue more strongly about someone if he'd dreamed of them as a wolf (unless Greenie was a wolf, which is certainly possible even though I don't feel that suspcious). Unless he was trying to be subtle, in which case I have no idea who he was trying to hint at.

I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me.

If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)?

Last edited by Firefoot; 06-05-2015 at 09:38 PM. Reason: x'ed since Nerwen #421
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Old 06-05-2015, 06:48 PM   #13
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Has to be known unknown surely? Some sort of assassin maybe. Assuming Agan was the Hunter. I have sleep to do now. Will return anon and hopefully an unhealthy breakfast and coffee will help.
Yeah, I wondered about that too. If it is some assassin role. I wonder if the powers are limited to a certain number of targets or particular days...hard to tell. To McCaber's point too, without knowing for sure who were the wolves victims, the narrative doesn't appear to distinguish, it makes it a bit more challenging. I would assume that of the 3 Legate would be a relatively safe pick to be one of the wolf kills as he seemed fairly innocent and thoughtful. To that end, Rkae also seemed rather innocent to me, although I found her exclamation asking for somebody to find her suspicious as odd and wanted clarification on that toDay.

In the narration it talked about somebody with an itch again. I believe Lal discussed that a bit yesterDay and it would seem that this is indeed a clue to the role. It makes me think the person may not realize they have a role because they don't seem to know much about the itch...just speculation and not sure how it would all tie in.

Agan voters were:
Greenie (dead—possible wolf)
Lalaith
Lommy
McCaber
Mac
(dead)
Nilp
Eomer
Boromir


Indeed there likely was at least one or two wolves in the voting mix. However, I was suspicious of Mac and he's dead so I would think he was one and there is a reasonable chance that Greenie was. It might be a bit hopeful to think that two wolves went down in the fracas but I would think at least one. If Nog was a wolf (I don't think he was) then we would have 2 or 3 down. My guess is we have 1 or 2.

Oddly, Lommy maintained her suspicion of Agan after their fight and make up.

McCaber tied the vote, if I recall and Nilp put Agan ahead.

Boromir was effectively a throw away vote at the end and to a lesser degree so was Eomer's. Eomer could have influenced the outcome somewhat by voting for Mac who had 3 but the fate was essentially decided at that point.

From the voting, excluding the dead McCaber, Nilp, Boro and Eomer look the worst. However I maintain a suspicion of Sally who didn't vote yesterday among other things from the previous days stuff. She doesn't sit right with me. I'd like to hear more from her.

x'ed with Firefoot
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Old 06-05-2015, 10:34 PM   #14
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I'm organizing some conclusions based on the kills/lynches we've seen thus far. It's not a lot, but it's something.

Roles we know
Agan was the hunter and chose Greenie on the Day she was killed
One of Mac, Rikae, and Legate was (most likely) the special role

Roles we can eliminate (i.e. the person cannot be a certain role)
Nog was not the ranger or a lover
Phantom was not the ranger or a lover
Rune was not the ranger or a lover

Pack connections we can assume
Phantom and Rune cannot be in the same wolf pack
Mac, Rike, and Legate cannot be in the same wolf pack


I have one more to add, but I need to finish something first. I'll make that a separate post.


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Old 06-05-2015, 10:45 PM   #15
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Roles we can eliminate (i.e. the person cannot be a certain role)
Nog was not the ranger or a lover
Phantom was not the ranger or a lover
Rune was not the ranger or a lover
Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.
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Old 06-06-2015, 12:59 AM   #16
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Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.
Trust me, honey, I know these things.
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Old 06-05-2015, 10:45 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I'm organizing some conclusions based on the kills/lynches we've seen thus far. It's not a lot, but it's something.

Roles we know
Agan was the hunter and chose Greenie on the Day she was killed
One of Mac, Rikae, and Legate was (most likely) the special role
Why? You think the special rôle is a second (presumably modified) Hunter? Or a sort of zombie Assassin? Or what?
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Old 06-06-2015, 12:02 AM   #18
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Eomer has been making a lot of cryptic statements today, hasn’t he? I wish he’d explain them.
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Old 06-06-2015, 12:41 AM   #19
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I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers, because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:45 AM   #20
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Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.Mithalwen is lost in the dark paths of Moria.
Quote:
Originally Posted by McCaber View Post
I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers, because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.
McCaber if you read on you will see that I had my genuine misunderstanding explained to me. However because it was so late and I really didn't want a tie I still voted for her. Couldn't quantify it at that point but she seemed "off" . Now of course it is clear it was a gifted vibe rather than a wolfy one. Yes I didn't contribute much but I didn't have a lot of time and all that maths and philosophy were rather lost on me. Now that most of the people who do my head in and we happen to be in the deadfred and we have some concrete info I will probably perk up... be more useful.
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Old 06-06-2015, 02:10 AM   #21
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Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.
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Old 06-06-2015, 12:58 AM   #22
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Narya

Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself.

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do


I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?


It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill


They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-


I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role


Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count


At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3
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Old 06-06-2015, 02:27 AM   #23
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself.

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do


I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?


It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill


They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-


I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role


Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count


At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3
Um, so... wow.

What do we do? I mean, if she is what she is, that's a known innocent. But would the Wolves go for her, when they could be going for the Seer or the other Pack? And do we dare use up a lynch for a known innocent?

Although I think the reveal is a bit too early, it's not bad. Considering the anomalous deaths of the previous diurnal cycle, it would be useful to know what the other side knows--provided her Lover survives in time for her to return.

Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.
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Old 06-06-2015, 02:43 AM   #24
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Quote:
Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.
I really hope our esteemed mod won’t answer that.
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:06 AM   #25
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I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:12 AM   #26
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McCaber has been trapped in the Barrow!
So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:12 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).
Well! You'll have a lot to respond to, I imagine! Great reveal there, excellent work.
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:14 AM   #28
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So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?
My guess is the former. This:

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?


...

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role


Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count
seems to indicate that she's volunteering to be lynched toDay.
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Old 06-06-2015, 01:03 AM   #29
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Alright, I'm finally back and back for good - my schedule is now free for the foreseeable future! I'll respond to a couple of things quickly, and then get down to more of my own thoughts in a later post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
On Lottie

...

#220 - Votes Nog. It's clear now that she did cross with Phantom, so at the time it's assumed she was placing the second vote on Nog. It's worth noting that there was indeed a big upswing in support for voting Nog at this time; Eomer, Phantom, Sally, and myself had mentioned possibly voting for him at this point.
I did cross with tp, just to clear that up.

Quote:
Next day...

#250 - Defends Sally against Morm, regarding Sally's theory on a Runewolf being picked off last night. On rereading, it does seem a bit jumpy of Morm to come out so strongly against Sally there. I may have to look at him next, time permitting. Regarding Lottie herself, she says she's suspicious of Morm here. Nothing really jumps out at me.

...

- strikes me as a bit hypocritical, though. Weren't you just talking in rather certain terms about why the wolves would make any particular kill? I can't decide if Lottie actually, innocently suspects Morm for this or if she's reaching for any reason to for its own sake.

#296 - Votes morm.
Even if I were a wolf, I wouldn't have to reach for reasons. There are two packs, after all. Anyway, I did suspect morm - I still do, to some extent, though I think there are much more fruitful lines of questioning to pursue toDay than there were yesterDay - primarily because he dismissed Sally's suggestion that the wolves killed Rune because they suspected he was a rival wolf so out of hand and adamantly. I did consider it less likely that the wolves had considered Rune to be Gifted than that they had considered him to be a rival, but only after serious consideration. Morm rejected it as impossible immediately - or at least, that is how I interpreted his posts. That immediate dismissal is what I found to be suspicious, if that helps clarify for you where I was coming from.

Quote:
Throughout most of this readthrough I was thinking Lottie looked pretty innocent. It wasn't until I got down to the end where I noticed a discrepancy and began to second-guess myself where she's concerned. However, I feel uncomfortable voting for her since she's already said she likely won't be back today, and I could use some clarification on one or two things she's said, so I won't necessarily be voting for her today.
I tried to clear my thought process up in the paragraph above, let me know if you have any other questions!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen View Post
We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.
We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

Edit: xed with Sally! o.O
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Old 06-06-2015, 06:18 PM   #30
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This extra Night kill is interesting. Assuming Agan was the Hunter (seems clear enough that she was) and took Greenie down with her, then the extra death may suggest that either Greenie has some special role that allows her to also take someone down with her. I think it was Eomer that floated the possibility of a were-bear. Rules for them vary with each mod, so I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that a Greenie-bear could cause a death after her own.
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Old 06-06-2015, 06:22 PM   #31
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Sorry it must be fairly evident that I am doing train-of-thought posting here, and this may have already been answered somewhere along the way, but can the Seer and the Hunter come back from the Dead Thread, or just the Ranger and the Lovers?
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Old 06-06-2015, 06:28 PM   #32
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Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?

This was from Eomer (mobiles are not conducive to this game!). Eomer, given that roles are not revealed upon lynch, how would lynching someone else have tested the theory? I may have missed something here ...
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Old 06-06-2015, 06:29 PM   #33
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Now, given that I am posting into a void and that any lurkers are probably fed up of my inane questions, I will take my leave.
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