![]() |
![]() |
Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
|
![]() |
#1 |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Has to be known unknown surely? Some sort of assassin maybe. Assuming Agan was the Hunter. I have sleep to do now. Will return anon and hopefully an unhealthy breakfast and coffee will help.
__________________
“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#2 |
Laconic Loreman
|
Ouchee...that's 5 deaths in one Day/Night turn.
Agan must have been the Hunter...I'm just hoping there's a few wolves in this bloodbath over the last 24 hours.
__________________
Fenris Penguin
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#3 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
![]() |
Man, something strange must have gone down last night. Also assuming that Agan was the Hunter and brought Greenie down with her, have we heard any whispers of where the third kill came from? If we can get a better bead on which two were from wolves, it might help give us some additional leads on this mysterious third party (whom I am holding responsible for the third kill until further notice). As far as I know Kuru hasn't even told us which side they're on.
__________________
Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#4 |
Laconic Loreman
|
At least, we can be certain Agan is the Hunter, and therefor hopefully her trap struck a Greeniewolf. Also, I can use this to start forming better suspicions, since over 2 days she attracted a lot of votes and perhas there's a wolf or more to spot from the Agan voters.
The other thing, I hope the Dead knows someone's role from the Nog, phantom, Rune and Greenie group. Any ideas on which of the four they would have voted to find out? Question for Master Kuru. Do we find out too who the Dead gives an extra vote to? I didn't spot anything in last night's narration, or today's. And I thought they had enough to start voting on that too?
__________________
Fenris Penguin
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#5 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
![]() |
As of yesterDay they had a quorum, but I didn't see anything in the narrations to show who they might have voted on. And since they didn't have any additional information, they might well have decided to hold off until toDay to act.
__________________
Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#6 |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
![]() |
Are we quite certain, then, that Agan was the hunter, and not one of the three dead last night?
Also, at this point there is a 8.9% likelihood that all the Dead are innocents - so a 91.1% chance at least one wolf is dead, which I guess is encouraging... (assuming a random selection of innocent/wolf kills, and assuming the hunter is definitely dead, whether it's Agan or someone else - though I'd guess the Night extra kill was due to the special role). Also, I only got a B in statistics so let's say there's an 85% chance that this is correct. ![]() The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent). A look at the voting... Lommy, Mac, and McCaber voted for Agan twice. Eomer and Boro were the only two to vote for both Nog and Agan. Eomer is back to being a bit suspicious to me after voting late for both Nog and Agan without a lot of pre-existing suspicion - in fact, he didn't find Agan suspicious at all. This seems like a terrible strategy for a wolf though - might as well at least act like you thought they were suspicious, right? I still think there's a solid possibility Mac was a wolf, so I'm happy enough with whoever offed him. Wondering if we should look for candidates among those who voted for him... which I guess is just me, morm, and Nerwen. Hmmm. Not knowing where the third kill came from makes that harder. Last edited by Firefoot; 06-05-2015 at 07:52 PM. Reason: Typo |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#7 |
Laconic Loreman
|
If I had to put on my guessing hat...Rikae and Legate make the most sense as being wolf-kills. Rikae was widely accepted as an innocent (maybe gifted?), either way, she was a vocal player that was also one of the most trusted in the first couple days. Legate really started going after Greenie, last night, which caught everyone off guard. Agan, took care of Greenie, and if there's a way to discover her role soon, perhaps the wolves were gunning for the Seer.
As far as a pack-kill...Mac is the one that wouldn't make sense. He had been coming under some suspicion, and a growing uneasy feeling. I'm not sure why one of the wolf-packs would target him, unless he tipped off some gifted clue? I sure hope this special unknown role isn't some maniac assassin. It would be nice to have a weapon against the wolves that can bite them in the night, but it would be most dreadful if it was just kind of blind night-time killer. This could be a really quick game if there's 2 wolf packs, and a blood-thirsty night maniac. It begs the question is this only a once every other night killer? Or maybe that "individual itch" in the DAY 2 narration was the hint, that the target (either Rune or the phantom) was the same, and thus only 2 kills.
__________________
Fenris Penguin
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#8 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
![]() ![]() |
![]()
Confusing stuff!
So: the Hunter. In this game, whoever is targeted by the Hunter dies - as I read the rules. So (presuming Agan was indeed the Hunter, as the narration suggests) we know nothing about Green's role? The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that?
__________________
Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#9 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
![]() ![]() |
![]()
The Rikae kill doesn't surprise me at all - much like the phantom, she seemed like a level-headed village leader, and, given that there are two wolf packs, it's no wonder that they've both been killed off, no matter their true identities.
The Legate kill doesn't surprise me either - I suspect he was a villain and that his wolvish adversaries thought the same. The Mac kill is most strange. There was a lot of heat on him. Perhaps he got too near the bone?
__________________
Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#10 | ||
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
![]() |
Quote:
Quote:
Or maybe one of the wolves just has fleas. ![]() |
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#11 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
#261 She ironically thanks him for at least considering she might be gifted before voting her on Day One. #281 He says, "I didn't consider it, I dismissed it." #328 She says, "Well, Mac, I've also dismissed the chance of your being one, as the real Seer wouldn't dream of talking about me the way you do." #331 He says, "If I was the Seer, I wouldn't be *almost* sure you're a wolf." Now, if we take the events of yesterDay to mean Agan was the Hunter, which I'm inclined to do, then I'd say she was right that Mac *couldn't* have been the Seer, or he wouldn't have gone after an unknown so strongly. I don't see why this would look any different to the wolves (or special role). Therefore it seems likely whoever killed him had some other, particularly good reason for doing so. Unless someone can find a "Ranger hint" or "Lover hint" in his posting- I certainly can't- I'm going to go with the assumption that he was killed as a suspected wolf. Besides, it matches my existing bias ![]() x'd since Eomer at #412.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#12 | |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
![]() |
So the question then becomes, of our dead, who's good and who's bad. The list is:
Nogrod (lynched) - no idea of role the phantom (killed by wolves) - seemed innocent to me, but who knows? Rune Son of Bjarne (killed by wolves) - not sure Aganzir (lynched) - Hunter? A Little Green (taken out with Agan) - never seemed that suspicious to me Macalaure (killed by ?) - would be my top pick for a wolf in this group Rikae (killed by wolves?) - I thought innocent Legate of Amon Lanc (killed by wolves?) - not sure It seems likely to me that Rikae and phantom were killed by one pack and Rune and Legate by the other, in that the pairs can be categorized similarly - Rikae and phantom both being quite vocal and widely unsuspected, while Rune and Legate both seem to play a hazier role (Legate was generally not considered suspicious, I believe?). Might be worth taking a look at who Legate and Rikae suspected yesterDay - I would be pretty nervous at this point if I was a wolf and the seer was still running around, so that's who I would think they were going for. Rikae's strongest suspicion seemed to be Lottie. She voted for Greenie. Day 1 she voted for Lommy and discussed continuing suspicion of her early in Day 2, but by the end of Day 2 Lommy no longer seemed under consideration for votes. She seemed to find Nog, Form, Agan, Mac, and I (late in the Day, changing her mind) probably innocent. Since Legate posted his list very clearly, I'll copy it here: Quote:
I don't know - neither Rikae nor Legate seems like a great seer candidate to me. If Mac was a wolf, as I suspect, I wonder which two victims were the targets of his pack (if this line of reasoning is even useful)? Last edited by Firefoot; 06-05-2015 at 09:38 PM. Reason: x'ed since Nerwen #421 |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#13 | |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
![]() ![]() |
Quote:
In the narration it talked about somebody with an itch again. I believe Lal discussed that a bit yesterDay and it would seem that this is indeed a clue to the role. It makes me think the person may not realize they have a role because they don't seem to know much about the itch...just speculation and not sure how it would all tie in. Agan voters were: Greenie (dead—possible wolf) Lalaith Lommy McCaber Mac (dead) Nilp Eomer Boromir Indeed there likely was at least one or two wolves in the voting mix. However, I was suspicious of Mac and he's dead so I would think he was one and there is a reasonable chance that Greenie was. It might be a bit hopeful to think that two wolves went down in the fracas but I would think at least one. If Nog was a wolf (I don't think he was) then we would have 2 or 3 down. My guess is we have 1 or 2. Oddly, Lommy maintained her suspicion of Agan after their fight and make up. McCaber tied the vote, if I recall and Nilp put Agan ahead. Boromir was effectively a throw away vote at the end and to a lesser degree so was Eomer's. Eomer could have influenced the outcome somewhat by voting for Mac who had 3 but the fate was essentially decided at that point. From the voting, excluding the dead McCaber, Nilp, Boro and Eomer look the worst. However I maintain a suspicion of Sally who didn't vote yesterday among other things from the previous days stuff. She doesn't sit right with me. I'd like to hear more from her. x'ed with Firefoot
__________________
“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#14 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]()
I'm organizing some conclusions based on the kills/lynches we've seen thus far. It's not a lot, but it's something.
Roles we know Agan was the hunter and chose Greenie on the Day she was killed One of Mac, Rikae, and Legate was (most likely) the special role Roles we can eliminate (i.e. the person cannot be a certain role) Nog was not the ranger or a lover Phantom was not the ranger or a lover Rune was not the ranger or a lover Pack connections we can assume Phantom and Rune cannot be in the same wolf pack Mac, Rike, and Legate cannot be in the same wolf pack I have one more to add, but I need to finish something first. I'll make that a separate post. x'd with a host
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#15 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
![]() |
Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.
__________________
Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#16 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
|
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#17 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#18 |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Eomer has been making a lot of cryptic statements today, hasn’t he? I wish he’d explain them.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#19 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
![]() |
I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.
Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless. Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers, because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay. I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.
__________________
Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#20 | |
Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,460
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
__________________
“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#21 |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#22 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
![]()
Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?
And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself. ~~~~ I know I’ve been a little absent A lot has already been said What can I add to the discussion? Or rather, what could I bring to the thread? Not that you’ve been lying But there’s more you could be doing They could keep on trying Or you could set up a shoe-in You have an idea You know what you’re thinking What you need to do I won’t reveal I won’t give up the game You’re never there Why not ++ your name? It's way too soon I won't tell them my role I still think maybe I can do this I started with a good post count But posting while at work won’t happen Not without wanting to tear my eyes out You can’t keep delaying With no info, what will happen? And if you keep playing When will you have time for napping? Level with the village They could use the knowledge Girl, you got to -have to- spill They have no proof They can’t know I’m a- It’s too late now Give it up, you’re a- I want to play I won’t tell them my role When do you post? Do your most Share your role Not gonna lie Is it worth it? Don’t want to die Is it worth it? Just let them know That this lynch doesn’t count At least in prose I won’t tell them my role ~~~~ With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#23 | |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
![]() ![]() |
![]() Quote:
What do we do? I mean, if she is what she is, that's a known innocent. But would the Wolves go for her, when they could be going for the Seer or the other Pack? And do we dare use up a lynch for a known innocent? Although I think the reveal is a bit too early, it's not bad. Considering the anomalous deaths of the previous diurnal cycle, it would be useful to know what the other side knows--provided her Lover survives in time for her to return. Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.
__________________
フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
|
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#24 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#25 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).
__________________
"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#26 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Skyrim, again.
Posts: 820
![]() |
So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?
__________________
Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#27 | |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
![]()
__________________
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 06-06-2015 at 01:12 AM. Reason: xed with McCaber |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#28 | ||
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
Quote:
__________________
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
|
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#29 | ||||
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
![]() ![]() ![]() |
Alright, I'm finally back and back for good - my schedule is now free for the foreseeable future!
![]() Quote:
Quote:
![]() Quote:
Quote:
Edit: xed with Sally! o.O
__________________
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
|
||||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#30 |
Everlasting Whiteness
|
This extra Night kill is interesting. Assuming Agan was the Hunter (seems clear enough that she was) and took Greenie down with her, then the extra death may suggest that either Greenie has some special role that allows her to also take someone down with her. I think it was Eomer that floated the possibility of a were-bear. Rules for them vary with each mod, so I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that a Greenie-bear could cause a death after her own.
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#31 |
Everlasting Whiteness
|
Sorry it must be fairly evident that I am doing train-of-thought posting here, and this may have already been answered somewhere along the way, but can the Seer and the Hunter come back from the Dead Thread, or just the Ranger and the Lovers?
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#32 |
Everlasting Whiteness
|
Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid?
This was from Eomer (mobiles are not conducive to this game!). Eomer, given that roles are not revealed upon lynch, how would lynching someone else have tested the theory? I may have missed something here ...
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#33 |
Everlasting Whiteness
|
Now, given that I am posting into a void and that any lurkers are probably fed up of my inane questions, I will take my leave.
__________________
“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
|
![]() |