T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Aganzir · 12-14-2014, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

4) Rikae, I'm wondering if the wolves are trying to be bold and frame up Agan. It's a small village, just a little bit of doubt goes a long way.

This doesn't make sense though, not just for framing purposes, not when they could have killed me then and there. They must have thought of that and it probably contributed, but it can't be the main reason.

Basically I have two options now.

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes

). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me?

), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nimrodel's part at the end. When she says there's "another way", am I the only one that finds that to be a bit sinister?

To the best of my knowledge, she's not on the wolves' side so I wouldn't be too worried about the narration - I think her "another way" might mean she won't kill herself without avenging Amroth first, making her a hunter/assassin-like character.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

Also, I'm not happy about how quick Lottie is to discredit me.

In any case I'm glad to see Rikae here!

Loslote · 12-14-2014, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes

). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

That could make sense. There was a lot of cobbler talk yesterDay.

Quote:

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me?

), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Quote:

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

Quote:

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

I agree. Even if you are a wolf, I don't think we should lynch you toDay. I think we should leave you alone for at least another Night, just in case you are Galadriel after all. However, given that I suspect you of wolvery, I'll be going back through yesterDay's voting, particularly surrounding you, to see if it leads to the rest of your pack.

Loslote · 12-14-2014, 02:18 PM

Kitanna -> Tar (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)
McCaber -> Agan (1)
Shasta -> Sally (1)
Cop -> Agan (2)
Tar -> Agan (3)
Agan -> Tar (2)
Sally -> Tar (3)

Did not vote:
Rikae
Boro
Farael

From this, it seems unlikely that Cop or McCabbie would be Agan's packmate.

It's possible that Shasta could be, and was trying to add another candidate without jumping on the other two options (both, as we know now, innocent) and potentially looking like a bandwagoner, but that is in no way conclusive. Similarly, Sally could have voted to save her packmate, or she could have just voted to save the newly revealed Seer, which is a completely understandable thing for an innocent to do.

I don't think we can say anything about Kit or my vote - we both voted before Agan's name came up, and both pretty randomly, and
Rikae and Farael are not particularly analyzable based on voting records.

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal. If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

Similarly, though, if Agan is actually the Seer, I'm not sure Rikae, as a wolf, would have left her alive and then expressed doubt about the reveal. Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about Rikae.

Overall, I'm feeling worst about Shasta and Kit - Sally's vote was pretty natural for either an innocent or a wolf, but her posts generally felt like normal, innocent Sally to me. We haven't heard from Farael yet, and I guess he could be a wolf, but there's not much to be done on that front.

Aganzir · 12-14-2014, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal.

I think you'll find the answer for that in my previous post, Lottie.

Okay now tea and bed.

Aganzir · 12-14-2014, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Sometimes yes, sometimes not. I was the cursed in Kitanna's game some years back and both the wolves and me knew about my role - but then, it was publically listed among the other roles. The seer revealed two wolves the day after I was turned but Nerwen and I proceeded to win an epic victory, aided by our "known innocent" cobbler Mac whom we left alive night after night because we were sure it was him.

Quote:

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

Fair enough, I see your point.

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

My brain isn't working properly anymore (I slept badly last night, haunted by dreams of Cop writing reeeeally long posts - I don't think there's a time I've played WW when it hasn't got into my dreams) and I have to get up early-ish so I'm heading to sleep.

I thought about keeping this information until morning but that will be late at night for most of you others so might as well reveal it now - my night 1 dream was Rikae who's (obviously) innocent. I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

edit: xed with Lottie

Loslote · 12-14-2014, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

Maybe. But this is the best lead I have so far, so I'm going to follow it. Whether or not you turn out to be a wolf after all, it's still a place to start, so I'll be taking closer looks at Kit and Shasta, to begin with.

Rikae · 12-14-2014, 05:28 PM

When I was reading through the posts I made a mental note that something seemed off in Kit's random vote. Yes, innocents can make random votes, but this particular random vote - well, for one thing, why not vote for Sally, if the whole idea is that her vote means nothing? An innocent wouldn't want to risk her random vote being the basis of a bandwagon, and someone who didn't speak is less likely to be lynched.

So anyway, toDay, Kitanna's post just after I showed up looks quite bad if Agan is indeed a wolf.

And if Agan is not a wolf, I'm a known innocent with no ranger and therefore dead. Bummer.

Rikae · 12-14-2014, 05:31 PM

Hm... what if Nimrodel actually became an illogical hunter? That would make sense, and wouldn't 100% help the village, either.

Farael · 12-14-2014, 05:34 PM

*Sigh*

I'm really sorry folks. I foolishly assumed there'd be some comment on the Admin thread about the game starting. Since I am subscribed to the thread, I patiently waited for the e-mail to let me know... and missed Day1.

My bad. And I love Day1 silliness, so that double-sucks.

I have a few thoughts working their way through my brain, after a very confusing first day. Those who have played with me will remember I'm not a huge fan of exceedingly long posts with multiple quotations and person-by-person analysis. However, here are a few thoughts for now. I'll post again once I've had time to re-read Day 1 and what we have so far of Day 2.

Topic 1: I don't trust Agan

Agan was about to get lynched when she (you are a she, right?) revealed she was Galadriel. I think it was reasonable to do. She then said she wouldn't give us the one known Ordo as that would only help the wolves... again, reasonable
Agan then survived the night. There was a kill, however, so that leaves us with two possibilities. a) The wolves attacked Agan who was protected by a ranger-like figure (probably the second lover) and then a Hunter-like figure offed Boromir... or, most likely b) The wolves went for Boro for some reason, and left Agan alive
This then leads me to think that Agan is either lying or the wolves are trying to get us to do their dirty work for them.
Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that? Rikae hasn't said much yet, and she's not under suspicion. Agan didn't save Rikae's life as much as condemn her to a death in Night 3 (as the wolves will likely off Agan and then off our one "known" ordo)
Furthermore. Agan essentially told Nimrodel to show herself if she wants to be outed by the Seer. In other words, she encouraged our last remaining gifted to drop hints of her identity... why? What does she win by showing herself on Day 2 when (presumably) she isn't under suspicion?
To conclude, I don't trust Agan at all. Having said that, we shouldn't lynch her today. If she's the seer we'll likely lose her tonight and I'll feel foolish. If not, she'll survive and hopefully the true Seer will eventually come out and help lift us out of this mess

I'll look at other people today... but if I agree with Agan in ONE area is that we shouldn't waste too much of our breath on her. She'll either get mauled and be shown to be the Seer or she won't and dream of a Wolf... or she won't and we'll eventually know she IS a wolf.

Edit: X-ed with Rikae

Farael · 12-14-2014, 05:37 PM

My cross-post reminds me that I need to suspect Rikae

So here's my theory: If Agan is a wolf, then she might be trying to bluff by saying that Rikae is a "known" Ordo. When we find out that Agan was a wolf, Rikae will defend herself by saying it was too obvious a move.

Ok, now that I got some silly out of the way, I can be serious again... I don't suspect Rikae for such a convoluted reason

I suspect Rikae because it's a good idea to do so anyway

Farael · 12-14-2014, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'm in the same boat as Shasta when it comes to sleep schedules, but when there's not much to go on I'd rather vote someone who's talking. In my experience it's the innocents who tend to not show up, but wolves and gifted have that little extra bit of information that usually has them playing with more skin in the game.

So I'm going with

++ Aganzir

Her whole crazy drunkard act seemed artificial and overcalculated to me.

My emphasis -F

At this point the votes were:
Kitanna -> TJ (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)

People have already remarked on how McCaber's logic seems a little backwards. "Wolves and gifted tend to talk more on Day 1 as they have more invested in the game. So I'll vote for one of the more talkative people". Completely ignoring that he may also be voting for a gifted.

Furthermore, he introduced a third person to the voting list. I think McCaber was in a pretty safe position to try a little Wolf-on-Wolf action, or at least cast a safe vote with iffy reasoning. In my opinion, he cast what seemed like a throw-away vote for someone who was participating and therefore less likely to be lynched (as, in my experience, talkative people often get a pass in Day 1, and it's the quiet but not too quiet people who get the axe).

Finally, by his own logic, he shouldn't be suspected. He was pretty quiet on Day 1 all things considered! So, obviously, he's neither a gifted nor a wolf.

I think McCaber has a lot to answer to, and I would like to see him talk more today. Otherwise, I shall be voting for him before the end of the (North American) night. I feel like, if he was a Wolf and Agan was still alive toMorrow, we'd have an interesting bit of information. I really think that McCaber was not expecting Agan to get in that much trouble.

satansaloser2005 · 12-14-2014, 06:19 PM

Yes yes, hello, I'm here. Ahem. To business.

My sincere apologies to our fair ranger for your premature demise. I didn't have time yesterday to give more thought to what Agan might have been up to and acted in haste.

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

Back in a bit with further thoughts.

EDIT: x'd with a bunch of Farael

Farael · 12-14-2014, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Agan is lying, end of story. There is no logical reason why the wolves would not kill a revealed seer. There's one wolf down in my head, but as there seem to be enough people in doubt on the subject, I'll save my vote for the moment and focus my efforts elsewhere.

I agree, but my only other theory is that...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally (it's Sally, right?)

Why Boro is the real question here. It doesn't make any sense to me (at least at the moment). I'll have my own look at my prince's posts and see if I can see anything.

... the remaining Lover can both protect someone and act as a hunter. So they protected Agan and then turned around and killed Boro for some reason.

I think it's a weak theory and I think it's far more likely that Agan is a wolf. My third theory is that the wolves want us to do their dirty work for them... but why would a true Seer out Rikae as an Ordo when she was under no pressure?

Still, I'm willing to give Agan one more night, since we have 2-3 wolves out of 9 villagers. That means we have 6-7 "good" people. We can afford to give a "likely wolf" a chance to prove us wrong, since the Wolves will likely kill her toNight anyway if she's our Seer.

Rikae · 12-14-2014, 07:02 PM

Well, I can see why the seer who expects to die the next night would reveal an ordo. At the very least, you'll have one less person to analyze toMorrow and better chances of catching a wolf through process of elimination (though those chances are small this early on). And after all, better an ordo gets eaten on Night 3 than the last gifted (if she's good).

I keep wanting to assume Agan is evil and vote based on that assumption (for Kitanna, most likely), but that would be hasty. It could still be a risky wolf trick, although I could only imagine it if the wolves felt very safe from dreams themselves. Who would? Is anyone sleeping under that many reindeer...? It's a small village - I can't imagine any wolf feeling safe from the seer.

Why Boro? The only thing I noticed was how Lottie voted for him yesterDay on the basis of (as far as I can see) banter. Could his first post have looked like anything? If Agan's honest, the wolves aren't looking for the seer anymore anyway - perhaps they thought he was Nimrodel?
If Agan's lying, perhaps they thought Boro was the seer, or that his death would somehow make one of them look less suspicious... honestly, I don't think this is a very fruitful line of thought right now.

The deadline happens to be at the time I'm taking the wereduckling out to catch the school bus (tomorrow's her 6th birthday, actually) so I'll definitely have to vote early, probably in a few hours. I hope more people have spoken by then.

Rikae · 12-14-2014, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

Aw man, that would have been cool.

Rikae · 12-18-2014, 03:04 PM

Well, I've been looking through Day 2, and though I haven't found anything yet about any of the possible cursed-wolf people, I did find this (highlight mine):

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me?

), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Since Agan was a doomed wolf at that point, I daresay that is a hint.
Now to go over the subsequent posts and find the answer...?

Rikae · 12-18-2014, 03:28 PM

Well, I looked through them, and boy did I find something. Something very troubling.

Kitanna, are you around? Any chance you are Nimrodel after all?

Kitanna · 12-18-2014, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Kitanna, are you around? Any chance you are Nimrodel after all?

Who voted for Jex? No, sorry. Not sure where you got the impression I was. I'm just a boring, misguided ordo who is playing a terrible game and is probably doomed at this point.

And I actually have very little to say at this point except I don't believe anyone anymore. This game destroyed my faith in humanity.

Though I did come up with a few theories on lunch:
1) Rikae is Nimrodel-Hunter, but will lose her powers if she reveals. This being how the Tarragyn or whatever worked in Agan's game some games back. Rikae thinks she has a wolf and she'll take them down if she dies. It makes her self-sacrifice make sense.
2) Rikae is a suicidal wolf with village sympathies. Very unlikely, but since this is WW nothing can be counted out.
3) Rikae is an ordo, meaning Cop and Fareal were cursed.
4) Lottie is the wolf. Agan threw her name out at the end of Day 2 for those who hadn't voted. Agan didn't vote for her, but helped doom McCaber instead. A ruse perhaps to distance herself from fellow wolf, Lottie?
5) Lottie really is Nimrodel and she's effectively an ordo as she said.

Right now I'm leaning toward 1 & 4 being the most likely. I've already fallen for one fake reveal this game, I'm not about to believe anymore.

Rikae · 12-18-2014, 03:43 PM

An Elven-maid there was of old,
A shining star by day:
Her mantle white was hemmed with gold,
Her paws of silver-grey.

Lottie replying to Aganzir:

Quote:

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Once BEFORE???!!

Kitanna, I was hoping you were only because otherwise I have to consider the possibility that Nimrodel is the cursed.

Kitanna · 12-18-2014, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Kitanna, I was hoping you were only because otherwise I have to consider the possibility that Nimrodel is the cursed.

Maybe she absorbed the powers of the one she killed. *shrug*

Rikae · 12-18-2014, 04:06 PM

I wasn't expecting to find that, but now that I think about it, it makes sense.

We weren't told there would be other special roles, though it is possible "secret stuff", it seems more likely there are no other roles than the ones listed:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admin Thread

Galadriel (Seer)– dreams a player every Night.
Amroth (Ranger/Lover)– protects a player every Night. May not pick the same player twice in a row. May or may not be able to self-protect. (i.e. I’m not telling.)
Nimrodel (Lover)– The exact nature of the Lovers' relationship is a secret. You are free to speculate.

Depending on numbers, there may be some more secret stuff...

In the narration from the very odd night in question, the narration Nerwen emphasized was accurate, we have:

Quote: