T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, at least Agan is still alive. Unless there's something else in this game I'm not aware of, with the ranger dead that either means she's a wolf, or the wolves are insane.

This. I was 99% sure I would wake up to find Agan dead - she'd outed herself as the Seer seconds before we lynched our Ranger, there was no reason for the wolves not to kill her. Unless, I guess, she was heavily suspicious of one of their own, and they didn't want to point fingers at themselves? But even that doesn't make sense. It was Day 1, she hadn't had time to be heavily suspicious of anyone, and the wolves could have just said, "oh, she was killed for being the Seer, not for suspecting any of us."

I guess maybe the wolves knew we'd suspect her for not having been killed, and hoped we'd lynch her today. But that seems risky - what if she'd dreamed of a wolf? It's a bold play, and one I'm not sure we could reasonably attribute to the wolves.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So yeah I'm going to withhold my dreams for a while longer because I want to see some reactions first. However - Nimrodel, I dreamed of you but won't reveal you unless you okay it.

Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

Note: If Agan's reveal is fake, I don't think we necessarily need a counter-reveal by the real Galadriel. If you wouldn't normally have revealed toDay, don't worry about having to debunk Agan. We'll find out soon enough whether or not she's lying, whether that means we disbelieve her and lynch her (which, I would actually wait another Day, just to be on the safe side) or, if she is actually the real Seer, I can't believe the wolves would risk leaving her alive another Night.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

Not to mention that if Nimrodel did go over to the wolves and Agan is a wolf, she does know who she is now. This way she's safe from being expected to reveal a role she doesn't know, if she actually has to reveal her "dream" (which she is also safe from having to do, since Nim isn't likely to choose to reveal), and if she does have to reveal Nim, they can make up any role they like for her.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Note: If Agan's reveal is fake, I don't think we necessarily need a counter-reveal by the real Galadriel. If you wouldn't normally have revealed toDay, don't worry about having to debunk Agan. We'll find out soon enough whether or not she's lying, whether that means we disbelieve her and lynch her (which, I would actually wait another Day, just to be on the safe side) or, if she is actually the real Seer, I can't believe the wolves would risk leaving her alive another Night.

I agree.

[Loslote]

What I want to know is, why Boro? He might have been a submarine kill, but on Day 1, I feel like there would have had to be so many submarines available to kill that the wolves would have had more submarines to pick from than they would have known what to do with. Why did Boro stand out?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Agan being alive aside, there's something from the narration that worries me, and that's Nimrodel's part at the end. When she says there's "another way", am I the only one that finds that to be a bit sinister?

I have to wonder if Nimrodel really did go over to the wolves since Amroth died - which would lend credence to what Rikae said about Aganwolf claiming to have dreamt Nimrodel being a safe play.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

4) Rikae, I'm wondering if the wolves are trying to be bold and frame up Agan. It's a small village, just a little bit of doubt goes a long way.

This doesn't make sense though, not just for framing purposes, not when they could have killed me then and there. They must have thought of that and it probably contributed, but it can't be the main reason.

Basically I have two options now.

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes ). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nimrodel's part at the end. When she says there's "another way", am I the only one that finds that to be a bit sinister?

To the best of my knowledge, she's not on the wolves' side so I wouldn't be too worried about the narration - I think her "another way" might mean she won't kill herself without avenging Amroth first, making her a hunter/assassin-like character.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

Also, I'm not happy about how quick Lottie is to discredit me.

In any case I'm glad to see Rikae here!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's possible they thought I could be a cobbler. I know I was being flimsy and sort of trigger-happy yesterday (although by no means enough to get three votes ). And I know that sometimes when I'm a wolf I leave suspected gifteds (or known innocents, as Kitanna - and Nerwen and sally - will remember, or general pains in the neck) alive on the off-chance they're the cobbler. So yeeess I'm a harmless little seer, what can I do for you to survive another night?

That could make sense. There was a lot of cobbler talk yesterDay.

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't need an excuse not to be right. The odds of randomly picking an ordo for a "dream" are high, and I wouldn't have to worry about fooling the wolves. I'll be happy to give you Nimrodel's name if I see her suggest (as discreetly as she wants) she'd prefer I did that, but I will not do it without her consent because I don't know the specifics of her role and don't want to put her at a disadvantage just to prove myself.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

I have one request. Don't spend all your day talking about me (tempting as I know it must be). That will only serve the wolves who'll get to swim through the day with little to no scrutiny.

I agree. Even if you are a wolf, I don't think we should lynch you toDay. I think we should leave you alone for at least another Night, just in case you are Galadriel after all. However, given that I suspect you of wolvery, I'll be going back through yesterDay's voting, particularly surrounding you, to see if it leads to the rest of your pack.

[Loslote]

Kitanna -> Tar (1)
Lottie -> Boro (1)
McCaber -> Agan (1)
Shasta -> Sally (1)
Cop -> Agan (2)
Tar -> Agan (3)
Agan -> Tar (2)
Sally -> Tar (3)

Did not vote:
Rikae
Boro
Farael

From this, it seems unlikely that Cop or McCabbie would be Agan's packmate.

It's possible that Shasta could be, and was trying to add another candidate without jumping on the other two options (both, as we know now, innocent) and potentially looking like a bandwagoner, but that is in no way conclusive. Similarly, Sally could have voted to save her packmate, or she could have just voted to save the newly revealed Seer, which is a completely understandable thing for an innocent to do.

I don't think we can say anything about Kit or my vote - we both voted before Agan's name came up, and both pretty randomly, and
Rikae and Farael are not particularly analyzable based on voting records.

However, Rikae has expressed distrust towards Agan's reveal toDay, and Agan hasn't really responded directly to her, though she did respond directly to me with regards to my distrust about her reveal. If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

Similarly, though, if Agan is actually the Seer, I'm not sure Rikae, as a wolf, would have left her alive and then expressed doubt about the reveal. Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about Rikae.

Overall, I'm feeling worst about Shasta and Kit - Sally's vote was pretty natural for either an innocent or a wolf, but her posts generally felt like normal, innocent Sally to me. We haven't heard from Farael yet, and I guess he could be a wolf, but there's not much to be done on that front.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Are wolves usually told when there's a cursed in play? I've only been cursed once before (one of Sally's games), and I'm pretty sure the wolves didn't know before they turned me that that was a possibility.

Sometimes yes, sometimes not. I was the cursed in Kitanna's game some years back and both the wolves and me knew about my role - but then, it was publically listed among the other roles. The seer revealed two wolves the day after I was turned but Nerwen and I proceeded to win an epic victory, aided by our "known innocent" cobbler Mac whom we left alive night after night because we were sure it was him.

The odds of accidentally picking an ordo are high. The odds of being right when it comes to Nimrodel when you'll only reveal the name after you've picked up on a hint from Nimrodel that it's okay to do so are even higher.

Fair enough, I see your point.

What do you think you're trying to achieve looking at the voting with the premise that I'm a wolf, though? Analyse all you want, but you're wasting your time, which should be clear by tomorrow - I'll leave it up to the village to reach their conclusions. I can't really be even bothered to defend myself because the truth of my words will be obvious soon enough.

My brain isn't working properly anymore (I slept badly last night, haunted by dreams of Cop writing reeeeally long posts - I don't think there's a time I've played WW when it hasn't got into my dreams) and I have to get up early-ish so I'm heading to sleep.

I thought about keeping this information until morning but that will be late at night for most of you others so might as well reveal it now - my night 1 dream was Rikae who's (obviously) innocent. I had major plans for trying to communicate my dreams to her without revealing but, well, didn't happen.

edit: xed with Lottie

[Rikae]

Well, I've been looking through Day 2, and though I haven't found anything yet about any of the possible cursed-wolf people, I did find this (highlight mine):

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The other option (and one that feels more plausible the more I think about it) is that we have a cursed/shapeshifter the wolves know about. That's the best explanation I can think for Boro's death - he made one vaguely evil-looking remark and died, even when the wolves could have got me (really I'm a little upset here - who would take someone else when they can have me? ), which makes me think they must have been after something specific. A cursed would also explain the 2-3 wolves.

Since Agan was a doomed wolf at that point, I daresay that is a hint.
Now to go over the subsequent posts and find the answer...?

[Rikae]

Well, I looked through them, and boy did I find something. Something very troubling.

Kitanna, are you around? Any chance you are Nimrodel after all?

[satansaloser2005]

Let's get the big surprise out of the way first: I don't (presently) suspect Kit. Shocking, right? I hate to spoil a glorious tradition, but Kit and Agan discussing the possible implications of Nimrodel on Day 1 seems (at least on Kit’s end) innocent enough to me. While it’s true that the baddies would be as keen to know the lovers’ details as we are, her tone lends an air of ignorance rather than pot-stirring. Essentially I think a wolf Kit or a mystery gifted* Kit would not have this particular type of discussion with Agan; were she a wolf, they could have sent their secret messages during the Night, and were she a gifted, well, she would know what her role was, wouldn't she? Um, wouldn't she?

The only particular thing I could find from Boro was the use of the phrase “getting inside your head,” which, knowing how clever my prince can be, may have been picked up on by the wolves as a hint toward the seer’s true identity. I know it isn’t much, but there wasn’t much to go on, and the wolves were likely grasping at straws in this matter. Knowing there was no chance to undo Agan’s reveal, the quickest way to profit from the situation was to attempt to find the real seer before he or she could possibly reveal some of the sultry minx’s packmates. Obviously they were wrong, and now they will pay for their heinous crimes. My prince must be avenged!

In regards to above, I’ll note that Lottie made a quick point of that before voting for Boro, which, if my above theory is correct, could paint her in a rather bloody light. Other than that, I’ve not dedicated much time to her yet, I’ll admit.

While I hesitate to trust McCaber on principle (he’s the McCobbler, after all!), I think his logic this Day and the last has been sound (and not just because he voted Agan, promise). He tips toward the logical side of at least voting for someone who is around to defend themselves, and the fact that the vote was for Agan does honestly help his case, especially since he was the one who started the votes against her and we all know how unpredictable Day 1s can be; he easily could have been serving her up as a quick lynch, and I don’t believe Cab would take such a big risk, at least not on Day 1.

I find Shasta’s vote highly suspicious, however. I don’t find it within his nature to go after someone who hasn’t yet spoken their piece. Must he really go after someone who hasn't shown up, especially after the debacles we've had in the past with absent Day 1 lynchees? It’s bad form, and unusual form for him. If he is a wolf, he could easily use the events of the last game (I mean, really, I haven’t changed my avatar, for God’s sake) as a joking front for shifting the vote toward me and away from a compatriot. Say, Agan, perhaps?

Rikae looks okay to me (for the moment) mostly based on the fact that Agan specified her as a dream, and to have Rikae turn out the opposite of that reveal would ruin what small (and inexplicable) chance Agan has at keeping up this seer act. I'll reevaluate this later, as I know both of these ladies are capable of that level of shenanigans if not more, but for toDay, Rikae shifts into my ignore column. Like yesterDay, I simply have bigger fishes to sleep with- I mean fry.

Farael considers the options and has come to, in my opinion, the correct decision. It's been so long since we've played that I'm not sure of your style, but you certainly don't seem a threat at the moment (and yes, it's Sally).

Cop has given me no reason to notice her, and is, I must say, entirely off my radar. Her vote placed Agan solidly in the danger zone, which, much like Cab, I don't believe Cop would risk on Day 1 with so few in the village.

As for this gifted mess, my advice to the village is, at least for now, to ignore what Nimrodel might have been or may have become. If their alignment has shifted, the only evidence we have of their actions from before the change was Day 1, and in most of our cases, that isn't much to go on. I feel like spending time talking about the possibilities of that role is only going to detract from our true purpose, which is exactly what the wolves want. Only two of us can know what Nimrodel's role entails, and I doubt Nimrodel is going to talk, so it's a non-issue.

I need to vote soon and get to bed. A quick list as a recap....

Would vote:
Agan (HOW IS THIS NOT HAPPENING, YOU GUYS?)
Shasta
Lottie
Rikae

Would not vote:
Kit
Cop
Farael
McCaber
Sally (duh)

I'll post this (sorry for the delay, by the way) and catch up again before I vote in a second.


*Nimrodel, that is

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, but I do want to voice my utter shock at this quote from Sally -

Originally Posted by Sally

I find Shasta’s vote highly suspicious, however. I don’t find it within his nature to go after someone who hasn’t yet spoken their piece.

Are you kidding me right now? After all of the literal on-thread fights I've gotten into with people about voting for people who haven't shown up so that people who have aren't penalized for it? -facepalm-

Anyway, I'll have other comments momentarily, that just stood out.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Are you kidding me right now? After all of the literal on-thread fights I've gotten into with people about voting for people who haven't shown up so that people who have aren't penalized for it? -facepalm-

Anyway, I'll have other comments momentarily, that just stood out.

After the last game and after how much you've been sniped recently, I don't think you'd do it. Not yesterDay, and not to me. You know I always show up. You could have picked someone who had shown up but beaten around the bush, but you didn't. Agan being in trouble at the time makes it a way bigger red flag than it would have been otherwise, but your timing looks incredibly sketch, and I'm an easy bandwagon, which is why I think you picked me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, regarding Agan the Seer. Obviously, her still being alive is an issue, since we lynched our Ranger. On the one hand, we have the possibility that Agan is telling the truth about being Galadriel - we then have to consider why the wolves left her alive to continue to dream. The only thing I can see as a possibility is something to do with whatever Nimrodel is now; I can't think of any other good reason for the wolves to leave an outed, defenseless seer alive.

On the other hand, we have an Aganwolf, desperate not to be lynched on the first day and pulling a gamble (that ultimately paid off). This theory has the added benefit of explaining why she's still alive today.

Honestly, I'm leaning toward the latter scenario. The former relies too much on the wolves being ultra-timid, in my opinion (unless they know something we don't, which is possible, I suppose, but hard to speculate on).

So, following that assumption, I'm going to look next at the people who were quickest to condemn Agan. A wolf whose partner has an expiration date is almost sure to want to make themselves look good by throwing them under the bus.

[satansaloser2005]

Full disclosure: I realize my above post assumes that Agan is not the seer, but....I mean really, come on. Even if -even if!- the wolves were afraid of Nimrodel or they wanted to confuse the village or they thought they could reap some other benefit from it, there's no way they wouldn't kill her. Each Day the seer lives is another Day they could reveal a wolf. It just doesn't make any sense at this stage and with these circumstances.

Also, she's Agan. Come on.

If I'm wrong on this, I hereby promise to mail Agan something lovely. It's only fair.


EDIT: x'd with Shasta

[Coppermirror]

I'm not going to be voting any time soon. Going to get some dinner and spend a good long time looking through Days 1 and 2 until I think I've got a better grasp on it.

[Aganzir]

Heyy I'm here. I'm afraid I won't be very useful though, another bad night (this time with no WW dreams though) and I'm knackered, and it doesn't really help that my corner of the world only gets about 5 hours of daylight at this time of year.

Okay reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I've really got to get to bed. I guess no one else is around right now...

I'd love to vote for Lottie, but in the interests of self-preservation it's looking like I'll have to vote Kit or McCaber, and of the two...

++McCaber

Good night.

[Kitanna]

A lot of people doubt Agan's claim and yet decide to leave her alive? Because?
I don't follow this logic. No one, but me seems to really be entertaining the idea she's innocent. And yet no one is willing to vote for her. I get wanting to do the wait and see method, but come on. If so many think she'sprobably guilty remove your doubt.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

And if Agan is not a wolf, I'm a known innocent with no ranger and therefore dead. Bummer.

Well you should still get one more day than me!

Originally Posted by Farael

Agan was about to get lynched when she (you are a she, right?) revealed she was Galadriel.

No, my personal title is "Woman of Secret Shadow" just to mess with your heads. (I am, and I know it's long since we've played.)

Originally Posted by Farael

The wolves went for Boro for some reason, and left Agan alive

They did. The narration was clear about it, as well as about Nimrodel not knowing Boro was drowning not far away.

Really though I must ask - if I was a wolf impersonating the seer, why would I kill no-trace one-liner Boro when his death doesn't offer even a scrap of an excuse for why I'm still alive?

Originally Posted by Farael

[*]Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that?

Why does a seer ever reveal her dreams?

Originally Posted by Farael

In other words, she encouraged our last remaining gifted to drop hints of her identity... why? What does she win by showing herself on Day 2 when (presumably) she isn't under suspicion?

Exactly! Which is why I didn't out her straight away when I could have.

Originally Posted by Farael

I think McCaber was in a pretty safe position to try a little Wolf-on-Wolf action, or at least cast a safe vote with iffy reasoning.

I would never let a fellow wolf-on-wolf me on day 1, not unless I was sure I'd been seer dreamed. His vote was iffy but I don't think iffy in a wolfish way (just because the phrasing was so obviously suspicious), it looked more like a cobbler trying to communicate to the wolves.

[Coppermirror]

This is getting very hard. Realistically the only options to vote for are Kitanna, Shasta and McCaber, but Kitanna and McCaber have votes against them and are in situations where they probably want to hold back their votes in case they need to save themselves. And Aganzir is likely to be a wolf (albeit that there's also a slim possibly she's the Seer), which means I should assume for toDay that her vote is going to be a bad one.

I don't feel all that suspicious of Shasta. McCaber could have been acting like a Cobbler but we don't even know if we have a cobbler...If we knew what Agan's status is it might be easier to guess about him. And Kitanna looked okay on Day 1 but her vote was a throwaway and she hasn't posted much toDay, which means she's very hard to judge indeed.

Edit: crossed with Kitanna

[Coppermirror]

The narration made me think that the wolves tried to kill Nimrodel last Night, in which case they know who she is.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

There was, she realised, no peace for her in bringing justice to one of Amroth's murderers. Only when the last one lay dead at her hand- only when she had killed them, all of them- then, perhaps, she would know peace.

Three people voted for Tar-Jêx: Kitanna, Aganzir, and Sally.

I think that maybe Nimrodel can only hunt people who voted for Amroth. Then again, she didn't seem to feel positively inclined towards the non-Agan wolf/wolves in the narration, so perhaps she just became an ordinary hunter.

[Coppermirror]

Wow, did you dream of a wolf Shasta, then?

[Coppermirror]

♪
When the wolves went forth a-seeking where Galadriel might dwell,
Upon Aganzir fell the wrath of the mighty Nimrodel.
To avenge the fallen lord Amroth, she took up her strongest bow,
And when the wolf went up the stairs she laid that monster low.

O who would falsely play the Seer, bringing wicked lies?
Why, one for whom the end is brought if on them the Seer spies!
Deceitful Agan, she is gone, and now forth Sally comes.
If in truth she is Galadriel, to wolves we won't succumb.
♪

Well, probably. We still can't be sure how many wolves there are left. And we do need to be certain that Sally is the Seer, and it would be good to know what her dreams were. The narration suggests that there could be more than one wolf remaining, but also refrains from making it clear...I agree, perhaps there is a cursed involved after all. That does seem to fit the situation better than Nimrodel being a Lover/Hunter/Ranger.