WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

Time to roll up my dirty hermit sleeves and look at what went on! This post will be long and maybe split up into parts, but I don't think I'll be able to get the grasp I need on what was going on otherwise.

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.

Page 1
There's plenty of banter from assorted people. Nothing looks particularly suspicious there at the moment.

The first substantive post of the Day comes from Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven. Goes over Bear, Maiden and Targaryen roles. Inzil of Tully agrees with her analysis and points out that the Bear and Maiden can choose who to side with. He sounds straightforward but quiet. Encaitare the peasant concludes in a stressed way that we have four enemies plus a possible cobbler to take out.

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

Mac Connington likes Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven and G55 the Innocent wildling's posts, but thinks Inzil of Tully's added little. Nerwen of Martell likes his post, thinks there's been too much lovers and Targaryen talk, and suggests that those talking about them are nefariously steering the conversation away from Lannisters. But...what else did people have to talk about then, other than that? They seem legitimate discussion topics.

Lommy of Baratheon goes over bear pros and cons and makes a point of being freaked out. Points out the worst case scenario, which does indeed sound very bad. I assume her figures are correct. Wants a focus on the wolves but hopes the wolves and bear will take care of each other. Her post looks OK and sensible but it also takes a slightly scolding tone that might be good cover for a Lannister. Then goes on to mention that Nerwen of Martell's post looks classicly wolfy but that at least it got conversation going. Nerwen of Martell then points out that wolves like nothing more than bear hunting. And she may well be right about that. It is a possibility that the bear and maiden would also follow that line of reasoning.

On the other hand, I disagree that bear discussion was a bad idea at that point of the Day. It wasn't going to divert attention away from Lannisters and at that stage I doubt it could help anyone catch the bear, so it wouldn't help the Lannisters even if they were among those talking about it. Though Nerwen of Martell made me a little suspicious of her at first, her later posts on page 1 look better.

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Then Volo of Greyjoy suggests everyone revealing as the Targaryen. Don't think he was serious there.

Mac Connington fake reveals as the Targaryen...Okay, even to make a point in a large village, I'm not sure that was a good idea, and it does make me wonder if there are any benefits to a stunt like that for a bear or lion. Thinking about it more, I'd guess there are potential benefits there both for an innocent, a bear or a lion, so that doesn't really help. His points about the Targaryen otherwise look fine, and he's both a little suspicious of Nerwen of Martell and of Lommy of Baratheon for her level of suspicion against Nerwen. My gut tells me that Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be Lannisters together.

Page 2 ...So many pages still to get through.

- Eomer of Stark agrees that the Targaryen should not reveal, and appears to joke about Lommy and Boro being lions.
- Volo of Greyjoy likes the cut of Mac Connington's jib, and also wants to forge an alliance with the lovers.
- Skip of an innocent house thought it wasn't crazy for the Targaryen to reveal and that the numbers favour it.

- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven discusses the likely bear and maiden allegiance pattern. Thinks it's interesting that Lommy was panicked about double night kills but only wanted to focus on wolves, and is a little confused by Lommy's vote conspiracy suggestion. It's possible that if Lommy is a lover, that might have been enough for the lovers to want Wilwa out of the way. Although I doubt that they would have been able to guess she was the Three-Eyed Raven from that.

- WithDryden of Martell claims to start thinking maybe Skip is innocent. Suspicious of Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven for looking too helpful. Perhaps this could have encouraged the lovers to think of Wilwa as a potential Lannister.
- Kitanna the peasant at #47 is fairly clear and logical but in her replies to Wilwa doesn't make any new points, other than to emphasise concern about Night kills rather than (presumably) vote conspiracies.

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

- Gil at #49 says that the lovers and lions are likely to go for each other. G55 the innocent wildling has a point later on that actually keeping the bear alive could be in the interests of the lions, and Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow disagrees a little later saying that it depends on how the Lannisters play it. His reasoning at #57 looks clearer and better, though the sort of precision he's advocating is probably impossible. None of it really helps to assess his guilt or innocence.
- Wilwa at #50 says "One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden." - which perhaps might have been read by the bear as something like "Oof, it's hard for a lion to find a gifted in a big village like this". I'm thinking now that Wilwa most likely looked Lionish to the lovers and that's why she was killed.
- Inzil's remarks are short and circumspect.
- Rikae's "Duly noted..." at #56 gives me a bad feeling. But perhaps I'm just reading too much into it.
- Boro at #63 thinks lions will be laying low and only going for the lovers themselves if there's a direct threat. Decent reasoning. At a guess I would say his tone isn't lionish.
- Skip of an Innocent house votes Gil. His reasoning isn't too bad.
- Mac at #70 comes over as a little odd, in that he's saying that a ranger save of a revealed Targaryen in a hypothetical scenario would be a bad thing since it'd mean there wouldn't be two analysable lion kills. I suppose he has a partial point, but I don't really like this. He also has some suspicions of Kitanna, Inzil, and to an extent Lommy. I can see his reasoning for those.
- Rikae at #75 is definitely moving in on Skip. Would a lion be doing that this early? At #77 votes Mac, or is it a fake vote?

Page 3

- Lottie is in a hurry and votes for Skip. If she's lionish, she probably knew about Rikae's suspicions of him at #75 and might have found him a good bet to get axed. While criticising Skip for making an easy vote, she makes an easy vote for him herself. But hypocrisy doesn't by any means have to equal villainy, especially given that she was undoubtedly in a hurry. Other than that, her list of impressions about people's tones seems well thought out and in some ways aligns with my own. This confuses me and makes me think "ah, she's right, and thinking along sensible lines" but then, it should be easy for a clever lion to do that, shouldn't it? I'm a little worried, and I will definitely not allow Lottie to go under my radar.
- And Sally at #85 votes for Lottie based on the list, but apparently for the opposite reason to my concerns. I may be getting hypocritical myself in turn, but that makes me feel relatively okay about Sally.
- Boro votes Inzil. Doesn't give clear reasoning but implies that it's because he thinks lions would be laying low and being uncontroversial. This in line with what he said earlier, and makes sense. He could be a lion conveniently following the line of thought expressed by Mac and Lottie about Inzil, though.
- Wilwa feels good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Most likely, one of those was her dream. She lists some mild suspicions but the phrasing doesn't look likely.
- #94, only possible suspicion I see from G55 there is maybe of Mac.
- #98, Eomer's reasoning is probably right but doesn't give a lot of insight into him.
- #99 Kitanna votes Skip. She acknowledges that her reasoning is flimsy, but goes through it. It's not even bad reasoning as Day 1 goes, but she could just as easily be guilty as innocent.
- #100 Mac is so confusing. But that's not a bad strategy, especially for innocents on Day 1, so it's not necessarily suspicious.
- #105 Lommy's list seems reasonable enough. Points out that Skip is an easy vote, and of course she was right. Hard to draw any conclusions from this though.
- #107 G55 could have come over as Seerish there pretty easily, I think. But there are so many things she could have "dreamed" of that at this point it's likely futile to try to guess. But later in the game, there's a slim chance her list could have some use.
- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow and Inzil both vote Skip of an Innocent house.
- Rikae says "Something about Wilwa bothers me. She's reasonable enough, but she seems nervous". Interesting, and it probably shows at minimum that Rikae is a perceptive player. At maximum...would a lion point out that a player looked as if they were hiding something? Yes. But if she's a lion, she'd have to think that Wilwa had a non-seer role, since the lions didn't go for Wilwa.

- #117 G55 the Innocent wildling votes Mac. Says Skip voting "Seems too easy for... certain individuals." Who had voted Skip so far? Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, Inzil. Did she suspect any of these in her list at #107? ...No.

- #118 Nog defends Skip, and his reasoning is sound. Of course it would be easy for a lion to do that, especially at a point where Skip already had 4 votes.

Page 4/start of page 5 ...where my brain starts to shut down.

- #124, Greenie of Reed thinks Lommy and Mac are more chaotic than usual. Points out a possible "your side" lionish slip from Mac to Skip. Which, given that we know that Skip was innocent...is suspicious. But then, at this point, when Skip was definitely in danger, a very clever lion could have picked on that to try to deliver Mac to the axe the next Day.
- #128, Rikae votes Wilwa, citing the earlier concern that Wilwa had something to hide.
- Nog jumps on Mac's wording too, and Mac just says that it was just badly worded.
- Encaitare votes Nog, as she or he is unhappy about Nog's suspicion of G55 and quietness.
- Eönwë of Royce arrives. Votes Skip for the encouragement of Targaryen revealing. Hard to draw any conclusions from this, especially for a later arrival to the Day. He thinks that if Skip is a lion, Lottie is innocent. And suspects Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil each a little.
- #134, Volo doesn't like Eomer, G55 and Mac's phrasing.
- WithDryden/Lote suspects Mac and G55 and votes Mac.
- Greenie is worried about Lommy and Mac, and slightly about G55. She feels okay about Rikae and Volo. Nothing seems suspicious about her there.
- #138, Mac votes Inzil.
- #139, Nog thinks G55 and Mac not both lions and that there's at least one lion in the Skip voters.
- #140, Gil votes Boro
- #147, Lommy votes Wilwa, shortly after Volo voices suspicions of Wilwa. Nog follows up with suspicion of Wilwa, suggesting she's a lover.
- Eomer prefers Wilwa over Skip. Greenie prefers that too, but Mac over Wilwa.
- Greenie votes Mac. Nog votes Mac, and suggests he's a lover. Volo votes G55. Eomer votes Inzil.
Deadline.

This thing is going to give me a headache. So many votes, so many people. And I want to vote within the next half hour, because I need to sleep soon lest I just nod off. I lost track of things part way through page 4, and I need to look at that again and start to read what's been going on on Day 2, but this is my list of suspicions from before I lost track:

Suspicions:

Not a clue: Eönwë
Very fishy: Nobody, alas.
Medium fishy: Lottie, Inzil, Eomer, Nog,
Slightly fishy: Nerwen, Rikae, Mac, WithDryden, Greenie, Enca, Lommy
Neutral: Volo, Gil, Boro, Kitanna, Sally

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Indeed. I’m going to look over the Skip-waggon myself, but the fact is he really did walk into that, which is going to make it hard to distinguish any suspicious votes.

EDIT:X’d with Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.

[Nerwen]

Death of an Imp

#33. skip believes we should focus on Lion-hunting rather then Bear-hunting.

#34. skip suggests the Targaryen reveal: "Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?”

#35. Lommy says “that’s up to the hunter, I guess”.

#36. Volo says, "I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!”

#38. Mac explains in some detail what is wrong with skip’s plan, which he describes as “crazy". It is in the course of this that Mac makes his own, now infamous “reveal”. (In context, this is to make a point about fake reveals.)

#44. skip disputes Mac's judgement of his plan, arguing that he can’t see why anyone would counter-reveal, that the Targaryen would be protected for a Night, thus losing the Lions a kill, and that, essentially, we’re better off *without* a non-logical Hunter. (This last seems to be the basic assumption from which he’s working.)

#46. WythDryden is suspicious of skip's initial post, then edits this to say he has changed his mind because of "posts agreeing with the strategy”.
*Shrugs* Newbie. Who knows?

#47. Kit points out that the Bear would still get a Night-kill, that the Targaryen would have no special knowledge and that a known innocent is not all that helpful in a large village.

#51. Zil says a revealed hunter is useful only later in the game. "If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever."

#56. Rikae says that in fact (counter to skip's assertion, “pretty much anyone" might potentially reveal as the Targaryen.

#66. skip (vote-post). skip doesn’t see why anyone would fake-reveal, as "the real Targaryan would start to wonder”. Replying to Zil, argues:

Originally Posted by skip

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Then votes Gil-galad (first vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by skip

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

#70.

Originally Posted by Mac

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Given how vehemently Mac had argued against the plan, this seems like he’s semi-caving in very suddenly, and with little cause. Odd.

#72. Gil comments that he had had a feeling he would be voted, and describes himself as a “safe lynch”.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

#76. Wilwa reminisces about the time an *ordo* outed her as the hunter by false revealing, says reveals can’t always be trusted and that an early Targaryen reveal “wouldn’t be that beneficial”.

#81. skip says this ordo was in fact himself.

#82. Lottie makes a suspicion list, in which she says of skip:

I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

#82. Lottie votes skip.

Tally: Gil-galad 1, skip 1.

#84. Sally votes Lottie.

#87. Boro describes skip's vote as "an early random vote that looks innocent”. Goes on to vote Zil.

#88. Kitanna further disputes skip's plan (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Kit

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

#91. Wilwa makes a suspicion list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

#95. Zil (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Zil

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

#96. Mac makes a list, saying he has “no clue either way” about skip "said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him”.

#99. Kit votes skip.

Originally Posted by Kit

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip2, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#105. Lommy makes a list, describing skip as "notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)."

#107. G55 makes a list: "skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate."

#110. Wilwa votes skip. "Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.”

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip3, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#110. Zil votes skip, as he "can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip4, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#116.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

This is where the backlash against the skipwaggon starts.

#117. G55 says, "I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.” Votes Mac.

#118. Nog reacts to G55’s post at #107.

Originally Posted by Nog

Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).

#121.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! ). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

(This post x’d with #118.)

#122.G55 answers Nog at #188.

Originally Posted by G55

No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

#123. Rikae comments on G55’s vote-post: "Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?"

#124.

Originally Posted by Greenie

As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

#126. (replying to Rikae at #123), G55 says "I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained.”

#128. Replying to G55, Rikae says she meant she was casting suspicion on skip-voters, but now says they’re worrying her too:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.

Votes Wilwa.

#129. Greeniethinks G55 is “a little off” for apparently trying to cast suspicion on both skip and his voters.
(this post x’d with #127.)

#131. Mac says, "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all."

#132.Enca votes Nogrod.

#133. Eönwë votes skip, saying, "At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 1, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#134. Volo says, "I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skip votes.”

#135. Wyth says:

Originally Posted by Wyth

I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure.

Votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 2, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#136.

Originally Posted by Eomer

We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

#138. Mac votes Zil.

#139. Nog believes there is at least one lion in the Skip-waggon.

#140.

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times.

Votes Boro.

#147. Lommy votes Wilwa.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 2, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#151. Eomer is "leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip”, thinking the latter is "more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest”. Is “very curious about the bandwagon.

#154. Greenie "would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.”

#159. Greenie votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 3, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#161. Nogrod votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#162. Eomer says, “the Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious…”

#163. Volo votes G55.

#166. Eomer votes Zil, saying he is "smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 3, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1


Thoughts. Well! I agree with Eomer both bandwagons are quite curious. One conclusion we can draw is that the Skip-waggon was not a simple attempt to save a baddie, as only two other players (Zil and Mac) were in any danger, and their bandwaggons (if you can call the Zil-votes that) arose after the Skip-waggon. Undoubtedly, skip did plenty to make himself suspicious, yet the general pattern of “everyone jumps on skip", followed by “everyone denounces everyone jumping on skip” is very odd. I mean, yes, that is how it works with bandwagons, yet I’ve never seen such a sudden switching on and off of mass-suspicion.

Most noteworthy:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).


EDIT:X’d since my last post. Really. This took ages and for some reason I can’t refresh. So I have no idea what’s happened in the meantime yet. Just letting you all know.
Edit 2: clarification.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

The order was Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, me, and then Eönwë to finish it. I think I was the first to cast any suspicion on skip for his plan of the Hunter revealing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

That brings a question: what happens if both are successful, ie the Bear goes after a Lion and the Lions target the Bear? MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)?

Originally Posted by Encaitare

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Also, the Bear is every bit as much a threat to the Lions as to everyone else. The alignment of the Lovers is fluid, and the Lions are fixed. That alone should make the Lions priority.

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds [b]Thinlomien[b] and Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

Originally Posted by Encaitare

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game.
On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides.

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

[Encaitare]

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

You weren't. I was.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You weren't. I was.

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

Mainly because I was pressed for time and had no better ideas.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

Precious!

Even if you Inzil actually voiced a suspicion on Skip the first (I haven't checked that but have no reason to believe you'd lie here as it could be easily checked by anyone), this is an interesting phrasing by you:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie

And then you kind of do exactly that...

The question this is begging then is, would you have been that careless on your phrasing if you were a lion?

[Eönwë]

So, I'd just managed to get caught up, but then my internet died suddenly. Back now, and reading.

[Macalaure]

Reading along, thinking along, and replying to some stuff people said about me.

Originally Posted by Inzil

He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely)

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

Originally Posted by Loslote

His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

Oh come on. I made one long-shot comment about him - you can hardly call that poking - and he jumps right at me. I am taking into account that he's a new player and his defensiveness doesn't have to mean anything, but it still deserved to be pointed out.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why?

All I said yesterDay about lovers and lions, while I stand by it, I mostly used it to see whether anyone would react in a remotely suspicious manner. I didn't feel strongly about it, and Skip made a valid objection. Why would I want to pick a fight with him?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

You had two votes that had just come in, one right after the other, and more suspicion from other sources. Zil had had one vote very early on in the day, and there was no momentum towards his lynch. Voting for Zil was enough of a throw-away not to risk him actually dying, but looked dangerous enough for him to be able to point to that as a reason why he couldn't be your packmate.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.

Edit: x'd since my last post.

[Rikae]

I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.

It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that.

[Nogrod]

Talking about votes that were more or less wasted / inconsequential aka. ones lions and other creatures who don't care who dies if their mate is not on the chopping-board (or do not wish to be scrutinized too much) prefer. (EDIT: added the verb "prefer" to make sense of the sentence)

In the order of dubiousness (aka. the latest first).

Volo's vote for G55.

Gil's vote for Boro.

Encai's vote for Nog.

Volo's is a total cast-away. With Gil and Encai you might imagine there was a possibility the ones they voted could also be lynched - but none of them actually tried to persuade others to vote their way or try to influence the outcome.

Detachment on who's lynched is one of the signs that should bring red flags around.


Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

Volo I think has already answered why he voted the way he did - even if I'm not sure he could have really thought G55 was "lynchable" at that point even if he honestly suspected her - so whether he actually "knew" he was giving a throwaway - and in that case, did he do that on purpose or was it a genuine mistake?


EDIT: X'd with a lot...