WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

If you're a lion on Night 2 with no better leads on the seer than "someone suspected one of us in a list in an ordinary way", killing that person is a good way to create a trail back to yourself to kill what's probably (and was) an ordo. Not wise. A lot of people threw around vague suspicions on Day 1, as usual, without being seers. After all, the odds are against the seer's first dream being a baddie, in general, on Day 1.

Nope, I don't think it was an attempt on the seer at all. I think perhaps that was the false trail they hoped to set out for us - look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!

The most seerish comment was from our actual seer, about Mac or about her list of trusted people, though even that isn't much. Still, Boro, Kit, Nerwen, Mac and I are all fairly likely early seer dreams.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

At any rate, I really think we ought to look at the people who are playing it safe, people the 'trail', such as it is, conveniently bypasses.

Reading quickly over yesterDay, Eomer's posting struck me as very safe, basically just amplifying things that were already being said and bantering a bit. Lottie, Kit and Inzil's votes were fishy (so was Eomer's). Boro, of all people, is sleeping under the reindeer. I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

[Encaitare]

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Apologies for the lack of activity yesterDay– I will try to make up for it toDay.

So, since there has already been much discussion about the two Night-kills, I thought it might be an idea to set out just who said what.

Wilwa (Seer)– killed by Bear

1. Suspected Lion
–Suggested: Kit #170, Volo #174, Nog #180, WythDryden #182, Zil #184 (possibly: wording is ambiguous), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Zil #172 (“weren’t a lot of people talking about the Lovers?)

2. Suspected Seer, who had left a “Bear hint”
–Suggested: Rikae #177 (with the hint being on Mac), Nog #180, WythDryden #182 (“possible, but improbable”), Kit at #186 (unless still referring to her suspected-Lion scenario).
–Disputed: Mac #179 ("If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though”), Enca #185 ("Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent”), Lottie #207 ("didn’t leave much of a trail’).

3. Suspected general special role, based on “nervous” posting
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion”).

4. As a general danger to the Lovers
–Suggested Mac #179 ("Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions”), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Rikae #183 ("simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger”).

5. As a no-trace kill
-Suggested Eomer #192. [This appears to rest on a confusion about who actually killed Wilwa, so may not count]


G55 next.

EDIT:made corrections.

[Nerwen]

Sorry for the delay– RL intervened.

Galadriel55 (Ordo)– killed by Lions

1. Suspected Targaryen
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early?”)
–Disputed: Zil #184 (“would they have really wanted to get the Hunter already, though?”; points out that this scenario would make Mac look good)

2. Suspected Seer
–Suggested: Volo #178 (from list at #107; “dream” = innocent Wilwa/guilty Mac; former more likely), Nog #180 ("So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer”) [At #205, concedes she was “not a person whose posting screams seerishness”], Kit #194 ("Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects.”), Eomer #196 ("G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually”; also suggests it points to Volo and Mac); [Nog #205 thinks Volo more likely], Mac #206 (suggests it could point to Wyth and Volo) [at #206 says this is a “stretch”], Lottie #207 (points at Volo)
-Disputed: Rikae #200 ("Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.”)

3. As a general danger to the Lions
–Suggested: Kit #181 ("Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?”)

3. As a frame
–Suggested (tentatively): Mac #206 ("If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.”)

4. As a false trail
–Suggested: Mac #206, Rikae #214 ("look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!”)

6. Suspected Bear
–Suggested: Rikae #214 ("Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?”)

7. Suspected general special role
–Suggested: Nog #205 ("it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her”). Volo #219 ("I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo”)

Overview/Analysis

Well, as you see it’s quite interesting, but tremendously over-complicated and there are just far too many names to keep track of… wait...