WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nogrod]

Okay.

So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)

++ Mac


EDIT: X'd with Greenie x 2

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious...

But now wondering if all lions decided to not vote on Day 1. That would be dastardly and Lannisterish in the extreme!

[Volo]

wilwa is quite relaxed given she's in danger of being lynched. A Wolf would be more concerned.

Noggie, I'll play along...
++g55

[Nogrod]

Skip 5
Mac 4
Wilwa 2
Inzil 2

[Volo]

Referring to my previous post. Or if wilwa were a wolf, she still had pack mates to defend her...

*cough* I'm about to drown on a bottle of water... :S What is dead may never... no never mind.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gah, I don't know and I don't trust any of you. I ought to string you all up!

++INZILADUN

Because I know he'd be smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping.

[Aganzir]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Skip spence is lynched. He was an ordo. No country for ex-Lannisters.

Narration will follow.

[Aganzir]

Skip shuffled towards the locked door.

“Now, can we all just calm down a little?” He stammered nervously.

“Lannister sympathiser!”

“Freak!”

“Killer!”

“He must be a lion.”

“I guess not …” skip muttered, back pressed against the unyielding wood. His eyes darted round, trying to find a friendly face, but saw only hatred, fear and, in a few eyes, relieved glee.

“See, you've got to understand,” explained Eönwë, “it's mighty fishy that a self-proclaimed ex-Lannister wants to get his hands on a Targaryen!”

“What reason would anybody but a bitter dwarf have to kill our dwarf hostesses?” asked Lottie poignantly.

“How do we know he isn't still in touch with his family?” said Kitanna.

“We don't. It would be just like the Lannisters to send an undercover agent like that,” observed Inzil.

“Calm down, friends,” some of the other patrons tried to say, but in vain.”

“Let's kill the traitor and be done with it,” wilwa exclaimed and lifted the huge axe that was still leaning against the bar.

Not wasting another second, she hefted the axe in both hands and raised it above her head. With a loud grunt she let it fall.

Bones crunched and splintered, blood spurted all over the front row of eager patrons and skip’s lifeless body slumped but did not fall, still pinned to the door by the lethal weapon. They watched, waiting, breaths held.

But nothing happened. Skip was bloodied and most definitely dead – but despite his Lannister leanings he was neither a lion nor a bear.

Slowly, the rest of the customers backed away from each other.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
wilwarin538 - house Mormont
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
Galadriel55 - wildling
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

Creatures of the Night, do your thing.

[Aganzir]

Wilwarin startled awake from a bad dream. There was a faint glow on the eastern sky, but around her everything was still dark. For a moment she lay still, blinking and wondering what had awoken her. Then slowly, as if against her will, she turned her head, and her gaze focused on something huge that sat in the shadows, a deeper patch of black against the dark room. The something shifted.

“I have a problem with you, Mormont,” he said in a deep, rumbling voice. “Your existence. The fact that you're living and breathing, to be precise.”

“Please,” wilwa started, but the bear continued:

“There is only room for one bear in this Inn, and you are the one too many.”

“Oh, Bear, please don't kill me! I have so much more to give!” wilwa begged. This was not at all how she had imagined the traditional song about the bear; the song that she had known since her childhood on Bear Island in the North.

The bear paused, as if to consider. “Now that you mention it, Mormont, I suppose I could find some use for you...” He took a step closer. Wilwa sat up in her bed, feeling unprotected. “You could give me a late supper,” the bear said. He drew back his giant paw and swatted wilwa on the face almost absent-mindedly. But so strong was the blow that it broke her neck, and her head lolled from side to side when the bear sank his muzzle into the flesh in her stomach.

**

The night wore on. The sun was already creeping up the sky when the Lannister were-lions figured they had lazed long enough in the warmth of the kitchen that still smelled faintly yet pleasantly of the blood of the dwarfs.

“Is it about time we murdered someone?” one of them asked, a lioness with soft fur almost as white as silver. (For, as you know, a male lion is not much of a hunter.)

“Do we really have to?” another one asked, yawning. She was sleek and golden.

“To defend the honour of our house, yes,” the third one – a muscular, auburn lioness said.

“What honour?” asked the golden lioness and got to her feet, stretching.

“Who do you reckon is the biggest threat to the Lannister triumph?” asked the first lion, ignoring the remark.

“The wildling,” said the auburn lion without missing a beat.

“The wildling?” echoed the golden lion. “The wildling when we have relatives and bannermen of important noble houses?”

“The wildling,” repeated the auburn lion.

“Whatever you say,” said the silver lion getting up.

After reaching this lazy consensus, the lions stalked upstairs with feline grace and were soon by Galadriel55's bedside. Her tangled hair lay on the pillow and she breathed peacefully.

“What should we do with her?” purred the golden lion.

“There's no time for games,” said the silver lion wrily. Indeed, the room wasn't quite dark any more.

Without further ado, the auburn lion jumped nimbly on Galadriel's bed, and she had barely time to wake up and gasp when long yellow teeth sunk into her neck and shook her rapidly until she moved no more.

The were-lions padded softly back to their beds.

**

As the patrons woke up, they found Galadriel's still warm body in the shared room she had slept in. It was unchanged.

When they went down to the second floor, it wasn't difficult to tell in which room the carnage had taken place. The floor was covered in blood all the way to the corridor, and intestines were spread around the room. What remained of wilwa lay on the bed, eyes blank and staring into nothing – the third one in the middle of her forehead as still and lifeless as the other two.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - pranced on by lions on Night 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Day 2. Comment is free.

[Inziladun]

Give me a break! Seer gone, not even at the hands of the Lions. And we know her vote was an Ordo.

And what did G55 do to get the Lions' attention? I think that's the only useful info from the Nightly activity.

[Kitanna]

Well....fudge...

I've been slowly going through the posts from yesterday (I'm on the top of page 3 only). And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Long post to follow soon on my notes from the first few pages. Then more long posts to eventually follow about the last few pages.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

Yes, but she started it. It's not a great theory, but it's all I currently have.

[Volo]

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

G55's strong phrasings might give us a clue. I'll go check that one too.

[Macalaure]

Seer down in Night 2? Wow.

Well, at least we have something to work with, I guess. Lots to analyze toDay:
Who might Wilwa have dreamt of?
Did anything she say give us a lead towards the lovers?
What leads can we take from Galadriel's death?
What can we learn from the ever so slightly messed up voting yesterDay?
(in no particular order)

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

When I voted and left yesterDay, I thought my "don't lynch me" comment might've been a bit over the top... but you guys almost did kill me! Not cool.

[Volo]

I skimmed through wilwa's posts. If she left a Seer clue, I couldn't find it. Keep looking though, just because nobody found it yet, doesn't mean there isn't one.

[Rikae]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me. Of course, the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion. Or did she say something that made her one dream somehow apparent? She certainly focused on the bear a lot, seemed to be trying to decide whether it should be killed early or not, but I don't see anything that seems to clearly be hinting at the identity of her dream. Could have been bear or lover, in this scenario.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

Here's her list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

If anything there is a bear hint, I'd say the comment on Mac (he's nervous about a cobbler because he doesn't want to kill a bear/lover). Mac's response does seem a little, I don't know, fabricated? Kind of a "back off from this or I'll call you suspicious!"?

Originally Posted by Mac

Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.

On the other hand I kind of doubt he'd go out on a limb like that to counter the very suggestion of lynching the bear/lover if he was one. It seems like a big risk to take when we're only talking hypothetically anyway.

This exchange would also be pretty bold:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Wilwa
Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass
Originally Posted by Macalaure
What's wrong with bears?

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

On another note, I wanted to answer Eönwë's post from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Edit: X'd with... everyone.

[Volo]

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

[Macalaure]

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four. She raises some points about other people, but in the end states that they're all neutral. Then in #110 she votes known ordo Skip, without mentioning any second choices. If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though.

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

On to Galadriel, in a little while.

[Nogrod]

Just a few principles I think should be thought about to begin with...

Wolves need the seer and they seldom are in a position they can easily let that thought pass their considerations (it is possible, sure, but quite improbable). So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer.

I'd search anything that could look seerish from G55 on D1.

The lovers would probably go first for the wolves - but if they had an idea that the seer was up to one of them, they'd probably hold that as a more immediate threat.
I see some people have already picked up from D1 that Wilwa seemed very interested about the bear so it could be a possibility...

I'd search anything on Wilwa for both things that could point her being a lion or a seer.

Okay. Second half of the football match to go, but I'll be back then for a moment...


EDIT: X'd with Mac

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Zil

So, our hosts were killed by a lion and a bear? Now all we need are tigers.

Oh my. I’m sad I missed this post yesterday just for the sheer hilarity of it.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

So this post seemed to start the lover conversation that dominated the D1. That same post also started the hunter talk.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

Which Mac suggested Wilwa was steering the conversation away from trying to find lions by bringing up these roles. However, and I know others said the same, that the role of the lions never changed, so talking about the changed hunter role and the lovers was a good way to get D1 conversations flowing.

Originally Posted by Mac

Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Zil

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

Zil takes the conversation further by stating the lovers can chose what side to support. In all honesty this had never even crossed my mind. I just viewed the lovers as powerful cobblers (with no specific alliance like a real cobbler) who did what was in their best interest, not necessarily depending on lions or village. Which was a bit naïve of me seeing that the lovers would have to side with someone eventually, even if it was brief, to keep themselves alive.

Originally Posted by g55

That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.

&

They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.

&

The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.

Galadriel makes some good points in her last part about the hunter’s altered role being like a ranger save. Nice and helpful. I don't see much there to indicate why she was a target. Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Seeing as the bear kills at night I am in favor of discussing the role and weighing our possibilities of survival with bear and lions on the loose. I said D1 that I wouldn’t actively be searching for bear hints, but I think it’s important to talk about it. If for no other reason than it did get the conversation flowing, otherwise we’d have spent D1 twindling our thumbs and bantering.

Originally Posted by Lommy

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

I agree with Lommy, which means she’s probably evil given my recent track record of trusting the wrong people.

So the following posts didn't really grab my attention until I read them back to back

Originally Posted by Mac

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Originally Posted by Lommy

What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain.

I know I quote Nerwen’s twice, but I wanted it included in this string. I find this exchange interesting because Mac starts out mostly IC, but making a point that the talk is more about bears and hunters than lions, which should be our number one concern. Not unreasonable given we win the game when the lions are all dead.
Then Nerwen jumps on this with “yes, this is sense, look sense.” Which comes off as being overly helpful toward another player.
Then Lommy jumps in saying Nerwen is using a classic wolf tactic, while doing so herself. By jumping on Nerwen’s acceptance of Mac’s post and for throwing around vague suspicions. In this little chain I would say Nerwen and Lommy both look suspicious.
Lommy and Nerwen continued back and forth about the hunter after that. Mostly it revolved around the hunter revealing or what happened in the event the hunter was attacked. Mac jumped in with

Originally Posted by Mac

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo. Though, I’m not all that familiar with GoT, but I’m pretty sure the Targaryen’s were crazy due to inbreeding. So maybe he is the Targaryen or maybe another kid of Jamie and Cersei (I’m not really suggesting this last bit)

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

Part of what Volo says makes sense, but some does not. I agree that the lions are the biggest threat to the lovers (unless of course one fell under heavy suspicion) so they would want to hunt lions. But forging an alliance? How? The bear is likely to kill an innocent during the night. And friendly neighborhood assassin? Pretty crappy assassin that doesn’t even know his/her mark.

Originally Posted by Gil

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

In a perfect game the two sides would just destroy each other. Too bad WW is generally messy.

Originally Posted by Gil

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Originally Posted by Boro

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

This is me reading the posts in order because I missed a lot of D1. I'll be back with pages 3-5 later.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Volo

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Edit: X'd Mac, Nog, Kit

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

But if you think it's serious business, maybe the bear did indeed...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Well, I guess that's as good a theory as any. After all, there must have been something to catch the Bear's attention.

x/d with Rikae

[Encaitare]

The Seer, already? Yeesh.

I think there are two possibilities here. Either the Lovers didn't like how much Wilwa was focusing the conversation on them, or they thought they were going after a lion. I'm leaning toward the second option, because the first one seems kind of obvious. And I joked before that love makes you stupid, but going after someone who is drawing attention to you, even without making accusations, is not the subtlest of strategies.

In short, I doubt they picked up anything Seer-ish from her comments. The fact that the Bear killed the Seer was likely a happy accident for them -- and an unhappy one for us.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

Mac makes a good point here. Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent, and quietly placing one of their names in a list is a good way to imply their innocence without being too obvious.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Zil: His tone is a little formal in the way it gets sometimes when he's evil.
Lommy: Has been logical and helpful, and seems genuine enough about it.
Wilwa: Has been focusing a lot of the attention on the hunter and bear, but since that is the only topic of conversation that's really stuck so far, I can't exactly fault her for that. Yes, the hunter and the bear aren't our priority - but it's better to have people talking and leaving tracks behind than sitting quietly, all agreeing that the wolves are our priorities. Wilwa looks pretty good in my eyes.
Galadriel: Her tone strikes me as a teeny bit too cautious, too thought-out. I'll keep an eye on her, but I wouldn't vote her yet.
WythDryden: Welcome to Werewolf!
Rikae: Has been very reasonable and logical. Her tone seems pretty calm, not too cautious, which either means she's not a wolf or that none of her packmates have attracted attention yet.
Mac: Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far
Gil: Nothing he's said has really caught my eye as being suspicious.
skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

Pretty non-commital with the exception of Skip who she voted for. Making it the first vote for him.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The thing is, even if people think we should be "going after" the Bear more than the Lions, or vice versa, saying that is one thing, doing it is another. How exactly are we supposed to go after one over the other? Especially this early in the game, when for the most part we are shooting blind with regards to both. The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

I bolded a line I think could possibly have made the lovers nervous.

Originally Posted by Sally

Three pages? Three pages? THREE PAGES!

I hate you all.

++Lottie

I think Sally was pretty quiet due to an important work visitor so she hadn't said much up to this point. I can't find much fault for work related absences/ random vote.

Originally Posted by Boro

I daresay an ex-Lannister imp knows how to stab people in the dark. I'm confused how he's come up with those opinions on Gil. That is, I disagree with them, but it's an early random vote that looks innocent. Nothing more, nothing less, and nothing schemed about it.

Questions skip vote for Gil, but doesn't really say much more on the subject. Later in the post he votes Zil because...?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

I think within these five is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Originally Posted by Zil[/quote

Right now I'm thinking of voting skip, for the business about the Hunter revealing (and the Seer focusing their protection there) and his seemingly easy vote on Gil.

This is the only thing about Zil's post that really stood out. Mostly it was agreeing, disagreeing, but not saying much.

Originally Posted by Mac

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

I know you pointed out your suspicions of me in an earlier post, but why Boro and Zil exactly? I don't recall them being mentioned.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

Earlier in this post he claims lions could easily hide in discussions of game-mechanics. But lions can easily hide behind posts like this too.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

Lommy was the first to remark on it, but G55 was a bit more talkative on the subject.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

What I meant was, I would as someone other than Mac. Assuming her concern about the hunter's role made her hunterish, and she didn't suspect any of them, killing her would have been a good bet.

[Rikae]

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Given the size of the village, maybe the victims were chosen because they had no connection with the villains. The Seer, in any case, should not be giving away anything on Day One.

In Post #91 Wilwa mentions: Skip, Lottie, Gil, Mac, Lommy, Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. The village would obviously assess what this could mean, because there could be something Seer-ish in Wilwa's notes - leaving the unmentioned in the shadows for an extra day. They would be:

Me (I suppose )
Eowne
Inzil
Enca
Green
Wyth
Mac
Cop
Nog
Volo
Sally

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh. Spot the error in that post.......

Staying up past bedtime to post on Werewolf is a bad idea. Just say no, kids.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by G55

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

Galadriel had this to say in response to Eomer.

Originally Posted by Enca

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds. You don't seem to like that. Are you invested in keeping the lions' identities a secret?

(Was that what more like you wanted, Eomer?)

Responds to Galadriel's aforementioned post. Seeing as Galadriel has been proven innocent Enca's response looks a bit odd and buddy-buddy with Eomer.

Originally Posted by Nog

And I'm not a fan of those who point their fingers in this kind of vague fashion just implying something while actually not even doing it (not to talk of actually laying a claim or making an open suspicion) - looks pretty lionish to me. And anyway, with an hour to go we need to get something going by way of making suspicions.

Then Nog says he suspects Galadriel based on her above rant.

Originally Posted by G55

wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.

Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects. I haven't have a read on Volo except for his friendly assassin remark and I've already said I find some of Mac's interactions noteworthy.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

++Skip

Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.

So because of Wilwa's vote her dream was probably one of the four she felt good about.

Originally Posted by Zil

I can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much, so it's

++skip

Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.

Originally Posted by Mac

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

Why feeling good about Eomer too? Because he is calling for people to list their suspects? Just curious since you only mentioned why you felt good about Galadriel.

Then Galadriel votes Mac.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

Interesting her top two choices are dead. But that has happened to me as an innocent so I don't think there's much to read into it. Just interesting, like this is interesting

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

I actually need to do real work. So I'll be back in a few hours to pick up where I left off.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

[Macalaure]

Decided to do the voting first after all.

1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)

Based on how the votes look, not overall suspicion

Innocent(-ish): Kitanna (but bad if there's a lion among Gil, Lottie, or Inzil), Rikae, Greenie
Neutral or not sure: Lottie, Sally, Encai, Eonwe, Gil, Nogrod
Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer
No vote from Nerwen and Copper.

One other interesting thing: Wilwa adding vote #3 to skip would guarantee to put her under some scrutiny toDay. The bear didn't care about this, which again points to the lovers feeling relatively safe yesterDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

No, I meant the "G55 as a Hunter" scenario.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

Sorry, I don't follow the Kingslayer reference. I really ought to read these books.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

Maybe he means the fact the he said Wilwa was slain by Lions.

x/d with Eomer x 2 and Mac

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.