WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Ozban]

I have just about thirty minutes, so I'll have to make this fast.

I have been looking at Morsul's post so far, and I'm pretty sure I will vote him tonight. But before that I'll review his actions up to now, from my point of view.

First: post #8 Seems like looking over all our personal playstyles from his point of view. Activity, but really unhelpful. And no banter on page full of banters, builds seeming of genuine desire to help, but the substance is missing. Additionaly Pom is the only one marked suspicious in this post. Is that maneuver to build distance in between himself and a packmate?

Second: post #16

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I certainly feel odd being the least IC on the first page

Could be interpreted as "look at me, Im actually the only one not bantering, but showing some real effort". Suspicious declaration. Well Mors, sorry, but you have done nothing helpful up to that point. Let's see what's next.

Third: post #22

From "tends to be suspicious" to "genuine suggestion". Ok, hardly a proof but if we consider, for the sake of argument, that Mors is a Wizz, then this post is really understendable, but also intresting.

Fourth: post #24

Seeing Kath as cobbler? This could be passed as confirming reception of cobblers hint, or pointing to cobbler in attempt to start cob-hunt having wizzers a free time as a result.

Fifth: doublepost #59
and #60

Reminding everyone of Kat, voting her, and signing off. Very safe vote, since nobody would actually vote Kat with such a weak evidence. Nice way to avoid the last-minute mess, staying under radar in the process. And that's for his participation in Day1

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts. His recap is intresting, but did not tell me much, at least not anything new.
Lottie's post #169 is something I totaly relate to. It seems like Mors-Wizz slipping unintentionally.

I like Nerwen's analysis of Pom's panic (#168). My thoughts, when I voted followed the line of Nerw's point 3. It seemed almost clear to me. Now as you summed it up, i'm not so sure anymore. But certainly McCab-wizz is a distinct possibility.

As for suspicions againt me, I understand them, I find Nog's vote suspicious and I can be obviously suspected for similar reasons.

Most likely not gonan appear before deadline, I'm gonna celebrate with friends.
Therefore:

++Morsul the Dark

I hope I made my reasons clear up above.

X-ed since #198

[Brinniel]

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

X-ed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

Originally Posted by me

And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

[A Little Green]

In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.


EDIT: x-ed with Volo

[McCaber]

Ok, I need to leave for class soon which means I need to make my voting choice for toNight now. And I have to say, from here Rikae's sudden turn after Pom's and my votes looks rather fishy. She did her best to turn everyone's attention away from Pom and onto me, despite that our votes and reasoning were basically identical (and on line with what Rikae herself had posted just ahead of that). To me, that behavior reads like being able to make points against a fellow wizard while getting an innocent lynched at the same time. Maybe I'm too close to this to see really objectively on it, but as I'm short on time and nothing has really jumped out at me toNight as wizard-sign,

++ Rikae

I probably won't be back before DL.

[Brinniel]

Considering I was able to stick around longer, I was hoping to see the thread more active by now. But I will have to vote very soon.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

[Inziladun]

I still get confused, but we're in Night 2 now, right?

So anyway, looking at yesterNight's voting:

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Me--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Gil's vote looks like a potential easy bandwagon attempt.

Pom's vote makes it unlikely Cop is a Wizard.

Rikae's vote for Cab looks fairly clean.

Greenie's vote could be seen as bandwaggonish, but she reasoned it pretty well.

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

Lottie followed me, which to me makes her an unlikely fellow of Pom's. There was just no reason I can see that she would have done that as a mate.

Boro's vote for Cop tied him with Cab. The rules state the first person to get the highest number of votes is lynched. If Boro
is a Wizard, he must have counted on someone helping him there.

Volo went for Nerwen, tying her with Cab and Cop. What I said about Boro applies, except that this to me indicates that Boro and Volo aren't likely to both be Wizards, assuming both knew the rule about ties.

Sally put Pom at three also, which gave us a four-way tie, with Cab the lynchee at that point.

Shasta put Pom in the lead, which looks pretty solid for him.

Nog put in a late vote for Cab, tying him with Pom. Could have been a last ditch effort to save Pom, maybe hoping for someone else to follow him.

Just based on the votes, Nog looks the lost likely to have tried to save Pom, followed by Boro, and lastly, Volo.

x/d with all since #202

[Nogrod]

A nice 12-hour workday is over and I need to make groceries and make some very-late dinner... but just a fast eyeing of the thread reveals some people seem to be questioning my vote late on D1 - and even voting for me based on it.

So just trying ot make a few things clear before that behaviour becomes too far-spread.

Those who have played with me know well enough that when a wolf I have no problem throwing a mate under a bus if it makes me look good in the early stages of the game (I know the seers oftentimes want to check me so that kind of an "heroics" might just postpone the seer for looking at me too early).

So why on earth - if I were a packmate of Pom - did I do what I did? That would have been soo unnecessary an attempt (the possibility of it going down the drain aka. Pom getting lynched anyway would have been high indeed while risking myself) while the other option (making sure Pom gets lynched and I get the glory for it) would have been so much more smoother. I would have been a very stupid wolf

But as I didn't know whether Pom was a wolf or not - or whether anyone else is or is not - I had no other chance but to work on my own suspicions and hunches. Like we all trolls must.

So I was pretty much okay seeing Pom lynched as I suspected her somewhat (well you rarely are "okay" with a lynch on D1 when everything is such a mess), and as the first one to have gathered the four votes at that point she would be on the chopping block anyway, whatever I would vote unless someone came forwards at the last moment... and that's what I wanted to see, that if there would be a prince Charming to come for her rescue at the last moment. That could have been a jackpot (not that I trusted it would happen, but with my vote I created a chance for it).

Okay.

More later as I get home and get something to eat.

[Gil-Galad]

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Could be that it bugs me more then it should, but past players know that my gut usually has a good chance of being on to something and getting me killed in the end.

Xed with Cab

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So I was pretty much okay seeing Pom lynched as I suspected her somewhat (well you rarely are "okay" with a lynch on D1 when everything is such a mess), and as the first one to have gathered the four votes at that point she would be on the chopping block anyway, whatever I would vote unless someone came forwards at the last moment... and that's what I wanted to see, that if there would be a prince Charming to come for her rescue at the last moment. That could have been a jackpot (not that I trusted it would happen, but with my vote I created a chance for it).

This sounds like typical Nog, which makes me think a bit better of him.

Originally Posted by Gil

Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

[Brinniel]

I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him.

So my vote goes to:

++Volo

From my earlier post:

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur.

That's all from me for toDay. The good news is I'll probably be around for the deadline toMorrow.