WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

Nogalysis

#81.
Doesn't like votes so far, especially Gil's for me.

#97.
Still doesn't like Gil's vote, but partly accepts his explanation that it was a "test".

Originally Posted by Nog

Then again, bringing on some pressure by exactly giving a second vote to someone that early could be reasonable tactics to see whether the dog barks the stick hits...

This sounds reasonable, but ignores how late Gil's explanation was in coming, and also the wildness of his claim that his "test" had in fact been a success. Hasty reading? A baddie trying to keep his options open?

#98.
Explains to Pom (#95) that he was saying "thee" not "three" in his poem, and was thus not confused about the number of Wizards.

#97.
Discusses the mechanics of suspicion and bandwaggons. Will neither defend nor suspect Cop "at the moment". Warns us all to beware those who "hold their horses and only have nice things to say about other players".

#124.
Pom's infamous post is "pretty natural" from an innocent, though it could also be the work of a wolf trying to "look considerate".

#129.
Replying to Boro's accusation of being "non-commital" (#123), says he has only had time to "skim through and make some fast general comments".

#134, #135.
Greenie is suspiciously plausible and over-confident, making too detailed a case for her vote: "the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us". Suspects Gil for his belated explanation. Suspects Pom "a little" because of her post at #124. Not suspicious of the early voters. Most worried about "all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil".

#140.

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

I need to check back about Copper next, as to how bad his vote was to compare to these later developements.

Reasoning in this post is perfectly valid- in fact I agree with it- however, at 30 minutes to go it is Nog's first ever mention of the player he winds up voting.

#147.
Disagrees with the "meme" that Cop claimed her vote was well-substantiated.

#148. Vote-post. (2 minutes before DL.)

Originally Posted by Nog

I'll add...

++ McCaber

So it's Pom now (first with as many votes) with which I agree - so any further votes could be telling us something.

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

Conclusion: Some of this is standard Nog, like his warning against submarines. Some I would accept as legitimate from a player in a hurry due to RL pressures. Overall, though, I think he looks pretty bad. No smoking gun here, but the whole pattern could well fit either a vacillating cobbler or wolf hoping to save his fellow without committing himself too far.

EDIT:X'd with Cop and Brinn.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive". Well, Gil hasn't played in so long that I think you could say he comes from "ancient times". It strikes me that, if not simply paranoid, some of his comments sound like a rather clumsy attempt at what I used to call the "witchhunt" technique:

Originally Posted by Gil

...you being so defensive and afraid that the two votes for you will spell your end reveals something. Are you hiding something Ner?

I mean, how do you get that out of:

Originally Posted by Me

This may sound like an "omgus" post- but honestly, I think Gil's post there looks really bad. He says he's voting me so as not to "add another name to this growing list"- a list (at the time of posting) of three names in a village of eighteen.

or

Originally Posted by Me

I know, I know, people who never vote on Day One are a disgrace, aren't we- er, I mean they?

But seriously- Gil, at the point when three people each have one vote, you're certainly not limited to them only, and when you claim you are, it looks like opportunism followed by hand washing

–that being all I had said at that point?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I'm a she, and I think the same goes for Pom, but I could be mistaken.

She is, and I actually knew you were too– I was just being facetious with that "unless I'm much mistaken". Here's the thing: I do think it's unlikely she would have made that mistake had you two in fact been packmates– at the same time, though, it's really not that advisable to clear a player just through meta-reasoning: you never know what might have been happening behind the scenes. I'm wondering if I should have brought it up in the first place.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Quote:

I don't see what kind of benefit a cobbler would get out of a vote like that one, although if you think otherwise then perhaps Pom might have thought so too. But I do think it's unlikely she did. Pom wrote a whole paragraph about my vote in her post #92 as set-up, then voted at #102 while saying that she had to leave now. She must have done that without thinking there was anything cobblerish there...but then she notices something back in my posts and changes her mind, right after her vote crosses with McCaber? I reckon that if thinking I could be a cobbler was her reason, she would already have considered it beforehand.

Well, yes– I argued that myself here. But Pom's behaviour there is very weird anyway, however you explain it.