WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?
EDIT: formatting.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

Like I said, you certainly had other options, so all in all I don't think you're my top suspect toDay/Night.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.




...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway.

As for innocent Cab I'd think it's pretty clear my interretation was in the form of hypothetical. A theory I ran with with many of the voters for example if nog is guilty cab is innocent.

x
ed withZil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway

How in Middle-earth does that alone justify your making Lottie top suspect?. We don't, after all, know if there was any wolf-on-wolf voting.

Meanwhile, as I said, it's likely there was some attempt to save Pom, and I think that's where we should be looking first.
Edit: x'd with McCaber.

[Morsul the Dark]

Nerwen may I quote you from another game(I memorized it because it made me laugh)

"Morsul plays in a bubble"

MY logic is sound for me. I have other suspicions but none quite so strong as that of Lottie I shared why, and how I came to that conclusion. If you read my thorough(every player mentioned commented on summed up) you'll see many have suspicious or watching added as an adendum there are some of course less suspicious also noted.

I'm saying my thoughts aloud you may agree or disagree.

I think the answer is helicopters.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

][1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.

[2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.

[3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.

[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

[5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

I'm thinking #4 is the most likely possibility. I'd say McCaber's vote would look more incriminating by creating a bandwagon with a second vote than Pom's. If it weren't for that comment, I don't think her vote would've struck me as suspicious, so I don't see why she'd panic because of a second vote. If Copper was guilty, it'd be safer for her to stay quiet; if Copper did get lynched it'd make Pom look more innocent. Situation #3 is possible, but I don't find it very likely and I just can't see #5 happening.

[Brinniel]

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

MY logic is sound for me. I have other suspicions but none quite so strong as that of Lottie I shared why, and how I came to that conclusion. If you read my thorough(every player mentioned commented on summed up) you'll see many have suspicious or watching added as an adendum there are some of course less suspicious also noted.

But Morsul, you've actually described her as your "top suspect", which at this point seems awfully premature when the reasoning is based entirely on her being the second person to vote for a wolf. (At least, if you've got something more concrete, you haven't shared it with the rest of us.) There may of course have been wolf-on-wolf voting yesterDay, but I wouldn't say the situation required it.

[Nerwen]

By the way- I don't think anyone else has pointed this out-
here Pom speaks of Cop as a male, which unless I'm very much mistaken is incorrect. That argues against their being packmates (though not conclusively).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

Meh, could be. You'd think she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely though, if she'd wanted. Then again, you could be right and it was a gamble gone awry.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

IF Lottie is a wizard that MAY clear Nog as Lottie has started steering into him so far toNight

Yes. along the lines of her vote, she surely would have come up with others to suspect if she and Nog were mates.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?

Any of those could be the case. Definitely a strange situation. I think #1 is unlikely, as that shouldn't have been a major issue for a baddie.

x/d with Lottie

[McCaber]

A Look Back at Pomegranate; or, The Death of a Wizard. Warning: all contents are my subjective reading and interpretation of the text in question.

Post 4: fluff IC. Tells us nothing about motives.
Post 15: rules recap to try and be helpful. Questioning Morsul about his actions in the previous 10 posts and an exhortation to conversation. Seems to be mostly laying groundwork for a defence against a possible Morsul attack later.
Post 92: doesn't suspect Nerwen or Gil after their spat. Comes down much harder on CM. Probably trying to butter up the first two parties and make her seem more reasonable to them by trying to see their posts in the absolute best light.
Post 95: misreads Nog accidentally.
Post 99: likes Rikae's behavior, even though I am about to say the same things and get raged at with the fire of a thousand suns. Contradictory posting is suspicious posting. Does go after Brin a bit, but this line of though is quickly dropped.
Post 100: corrects the mistake she made in post 95.
Post 102: votes for CM for much the same reasons as I did.
Post 103: notices my vote, panics. Why the panic? Was she trying to protect CM for some reason and in that post dissuaded any more wizards from voting that direction?

And that was the last we heard of her.

EDIT: X'd x 4.

[Nerwen]

And, of course, the other big question is: did Pom's comrades bus her or not?

I can't see why she would have appeared obviously doomed to them at any point yesterDay- if there was wolf-on-wolf voting there, it's more likely to have come at a time when it still seemed relatively safe, i.e. from Zil or Lottie. Not that you can count on this- my king, for example, has been known to bus his packmates quite gratuitously, precisely because it "clears" him. Anyway, it seems probable to me that there was at least some attempt to save Pom.
EDIT:x'd since my last post. Edit 2:fixed non sequitur.

[McCaber]

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.