WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Meneltarmacil]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

Because he's come under more suspicion than most, of course. He knows it, too– hence, I think, the jittery over-explaining of his opening post that he's been doing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?



Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

I'm aware, Menel. I wasn't saying anything against you, merely noting that Sally also fit the parameters you'd laid down, in my opinion.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Are you talking about the one you quoted earlier? What bugged me about it was that sally seemed to be downplaying the importance of lynching a wolf today - although granted, the situation wasn't as serious as Nog made it seem.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.

Me neither.

It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.

True. However, it would require every wolf to be here at the same time, otherwise it might go wrong. And there's still the ranger.
Anyway, so far (I think) only Legate and Kath have voted. I hope either Nog or one of them is a wolf... But then, the wolves can't afford to make any too risky moves yet because the situation will soon turn against them if the ranger makes a save.

Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?

Ditto to that.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

I have to leave very soon and I won't be back before deadline. I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?
edit: apparently at least Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?

Suits me.

We need to be careful in general though, as the more we spread the vote the more influental the wolf-votes become. And I know this isn't exactly making my own position easier, but one has to consider that - while hoping that at least one of thos who already voted was a wolf, preferable both - even if that sounds a bit silly as certainly the wolves wouldn't like to spread their votes when this near victory.

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Ah, but my dewdrop, you'll note I also voted G55 Day 1.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

Yes, I see what you mean now. You were objecting to Sally saying we could "find" the cobbler. Still, though, it isn't like the innocents aren't looking for the cobbler just like they're looking for the wolves, even if the wolves are a higher priority.

I'm not necessarily opposed to lynching Sally, but Legate I haven't really given a fair read to - I notice he and Nog have been going at it for most of the day (what there's been of it) and I still can't quite shake the feeling that Nog is up to something.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)

In fact, if we look at it that way, it looks doubly bad for Legate - both in that his vote for Nog was not jumped on and that he hasn't himself been around to jump on Kath's for Agan. But then, would a wolf want to vote so early in a situation like this?

In Kath's case, she didn't vote with Legate, voting Agan instead. I'm having a hard time drawing conclusions from this, though - mostly because I don't really have much to go on with her one way or the other.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

Well, as has been speculated, there is the (minor) chance the ranger denies their Night-kill and thus, if they come out in the open toDay, we have 4-3 majority toMorrow... So maybe that is the reason they are careful not to show themselves that openly.

The happier reason would be that at least one wolf has already been forced to vote by RL reasons and thus they haven't that much of a leeway at the moment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

An interesting note - since Legate's vote for Nog, everyone has posted. Since Kath's vote for Agan, everyone but Sally and Legate has posted.

Now, think for a moment. All it takes today is one innocent voting another innocent, and the wolves can all three jump on that vote and win (due to the rule about tie votes.) However, neither Legate's nor Kath's votes have been jumped on. Why might that be?

One possibility, obviously, is that the votes were made by wolves (both examples in this case are singular - I'm not saying both Kath and Legate are wolves together.)

Or made *on* wolves. Or a combination.

Or no wolves have voted yet, and Shastawolf and Nogwolf are just waiting for their comrade, Sallywolf, to arrive...

EDIT:X'd with Nog
EDIT2: Or Menelwolf, whatever.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I'm having yet another "What?" -feeling... bah. Nevermind.

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally

So three votes and three vote-receivers.

Yes the ranger may give us one more Day if we get it wrong toDay, but that's a chance of 1/6 (as the ranger may also protect a wolf) - and to that must be added the possibility that the ranger is lynched, which actually isn't 1/8 but nearer 1/4 because the wolves can more or less sway the vote away from themselves, especially now as we have already three different candidates who have been voted.

That said, I must admit to some pessimism at the point.