WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kath]

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

Lommy:
Mentioned that G55 seemed to be making a case against Menel in strong terms. Yet found Menel suspicious. Seems to feel Pitch and Nog are innocent. Everyone else in 'maybe' category. Suspected Menel and G55 but didn't want to vote for them as she felt it might be their general Day 1 suspiciousness confusing things. So voted for Agan on 'gut feeling'. Suspects Nogrod for 'bussing' a wolf comrade. Remained suspicious of G55. Says if G55 is a wolf then sally and Nog's votes are suspicious. Thinks Menel was the Seer-dream as he was the first person Inzil mentioned.

So talked herself out of thinking Menel was suspicious - could Menel therefore be a wolf and the wolves are using the general good-feeling toward Menel as a nice cover? Had Glirdan, Nog and Agan down as suspicious, and possibly Nerwen. Now, even if the wolves had thought Lommy might be the Ranger, she wouldn't have had any real extra information, so could she have been killed for getting near the mark? Don't think she's a trailless kill. She posted well. Thinks Nog was talking about what the wolves thought like an insider, was suspicious of sally, but thought G55 might be a useful lynch. This wording was odd. I was thinking maybe the wolves thought she was the Cobbler, but then it makes no sense for them to kill her! Roles are giving me trouble this game.

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil. This trio stood out to me earlier too. If even two of them are wolves killing Lommy was a good move here before she started pressing them.

It does surprise me that no one has looked at Lommy's posts. Particularly people like Nog, Nerwen, Legate.


The Living ~ Posts from Day 1
Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

Legate - immediately looks at Inzil and Pitch for not having very content filled posts. Early to make this kind of accusation really! Just starting conversation or testing responses maybe. Has comments on Pitch, Inzil and Agan mostly. Thinks Nog has good recent posts and that G55 is the better pick for the lynch.

Nogrod - thinks Menel does look suspicious for the way he talks about the obvious but that it could be due to not playing for a while. Talks about Inzil being spot on. I don't know whether this makes me less suspicious of him. Why say it in the thread if it's making you worried he knows a lot if you're a wolf? With G55 and Pitch now in the lynch running he begins to find them suspicious, but thinks it unlikely they are both wolves.

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf. Ends up with Nog and Pitch as her suspicions and votes Pitch as she is more comfortable with that. Would be if she and Nog are wolf partners.

Missed out Nerwen, Shasta and sally I'm afraid, eyes are closing. Back in a few with thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

So Lommy voted for Agan and sally. I'm tempted to go the same way. I feel like she was on to something. I haven't looked at sally and she's only just around while I'm disappearing. Therefore:

++AGAN

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by my turtledove

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

I think it's her use of the word "find" that Agan is querying there, though. (And there's also what I said, that it's been normal procedure to lynch cobbler-suspects for some time anyway.)

Originally Posted by Menel

If I had, I wouldn't have gone after Nogrod today. I have been a wolf before and seen reminders from other wolves during daytime. Inzil really looked like he was doing the same.

What, you've never heard of "wolf-on-wolf"?!

[Meneltarmacil]

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I saw you mention later that Nog fits this description, but I seem to recall Sally doing a bit of the same. I'll go back and look here in a little while.

Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

Because he's come under more suspicion than most, of course. He knows it, too– hence, I think, the jittery over-explaining of his opening post that he's been doing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?



Shasta, please read the second half of my post. I am not letting Sally off the hook either.

I'm aware, Menel. I wasn't saying anything against you, merely noting that Sally also fit the parameters you'd laid down, in my opinion.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Are you talking about the one you quoted earlier? What bugged me about it was that sally seemed to be downplaying the importance of lynching a wolf today - although granted, the situation wasn't as serious as Nog made it seem.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Given how doom and gloom he was, he looks like an innocent who's just given up - but then there's the whole "what if he was just doing that on purpose to make me think that?" argument. I don't think I really want to draw any conclusions from that, specifically.

Me neither.

It's actually one, provided the wolves pile on their votes first. That's rather more scary, I think.

True. However, it would require every wolf to be here at the same time, otherwise it might go wrong. And there's still the ranger.
Anyway, so far (I think) only Legate and Kath have voted. I hope either Nog or one of them is a wolf... But then, the wolves can't afford to make any too risky moves yet because the situation will soon turn against them if the ranger makes a save.

Re: Lommy. If that's so, though, why follow Agan's vote?

Ditto to that.

A lot of what you're saying makes sense to me, Agan, but this quote looks to me like Sally's is asking for thoughts about lynching the cobbler - which, indeed, is something we could have done about them.

Nope - we could've lynched the cobbler, but we couldn't have known it before he was dead. She's talking about finding the cobbler. We can't find the cobbler. Do you see what I mean?

I have to leave very soon and I won't be back before deadline. I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?
edit: apparently at least Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'd prefer to lynch sally or Legate. Is there anyone around?

Suits me.

We need to be careful in general though, as the more we spread the vote the more influental the wolf-votes become. And I know this isn't exactly making my own position easier, but one has to consider that - while hoping that at least one of thos who already voted was a wolf, preferable both - even if that sounds a bit silly as certainly the wolves wouldn't like to spread their votes when this near victory.

EDIT: X'd with Agan

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

There were a lot of people who went after G55 yesterday, Nerwen. Why should I zero in on my fellow wolf when there are plenty of innocents in the same bandwagon to suspect?

I'm having yet another "What?" -feeling... bah. Nevermind.

Leg -> Nog
Kath -> Agan
Agan -> Sally

So three votes and three vote-receivers.

Yes the ranger may give us one more Day if we get it wrong toDay, but that's a chance of 1/6 (as the ranger may also protect a wolf) - and to that must be added the possibility that the ranger is lynched, which actually isn't 1/8 but nearer 1/4 because the wolves can more or less sway the vote away from themselves, especially now as we have already three different candidates who have been voted.

That said, I must admit to some pessimism at the point.