WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, Nog's latter posts actually sound very moderate and he has a point (even though he's reiterating what e.g. I think Zil or who it was already said about the situation of that hypothetical Day 4). That makes me discard the idea of voting him now. If I were to choose from the other people who already have votes, then G55 might be an option, probably the best one. But I don't know. Generally I must say I am rather clueless. Pitch was also a tad suspicious, but the cobbler-talk was equally strongly performed by Agan, so that makes them basically even, maybe the only "bonus" on Pitch's side was also the Kath-comment. But really probably G55 would be the best pick. I don't have any strong subject among the rest enough to push it (I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind), as if it mattered at this point anyway...

EDIT: x-ed with several Nogs

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

Whoops. Indeed.

Pitch's vote made me uneasy when I saw it yesterday, and it still looks suspicious this morning. Thus, I believe I'm going to go with my (still a bit squeamish) gut.

++Pitch

I doubt I'll be back again before DL, but hopefully the lynch goes good. Until later, my dears!

[Nogrod]

Voting then...

++ Pitch


EDIT: X'd with Sally...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... not sure what the vote count is now, but I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.

++Galadriel55

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

I am not sure if that has happened so often in games I have been in, but might be so. Still... let's see.

[Kitanna]

“It was Nogrod!” Pitch cried. He pointed a finger to the retired barkeep.

“No, Inzil is in league with the wolves. He'll kill us all.” Menel jumped in.

All day the villagers had argued. Things had been bad when the food started to run out, but now it was getting worse. The Hobbits had come up with the terrible idea of killing the guilty party. A life for a life. Kitanna was dead and someone had to pay.

“Galadriel did it!” Inzil said, trying to keep his calm after unjust accusations from Menel.

“It had to have been Pitch. He's always been a shifty one.” G55 moved to quick to shift the blame from herself. “And he cheated me on a bushel of apples last spring.”

“You're all fools!” Pitch backed himself into a corner. “I didn't kill anybody. You all know it was Nogrod! He's been skulking around here ever since he retired.”

The others exchanged looks. A life for a life. Four Hobbits rushed Pitch, dragging him into the center of the room. They formed a circle around him, jeering, demanding he confess to his crime. Pitch continued to protest. He was innocent, they needed to look into their own hearts for the guilty.

No one was sure after that who threw the mug, but when it hit Pitch's head the villagers descended on him. Most of the blows landed on Pitch, but a few closest to him were struck in the close confines of the circle. They kicked and punched, someone even taking up another mug to smash into his head. After a few minutes they backed off. Pitch's blood pooled around him. His body lifeless.

Lommy and Kath searched his person. They found nothing. There was no baying from wolves outside, no thunder cracking to denote evil had died, no nothing. Pitch had died innocent.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
G55
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Inzil
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Night 2 Begins
Wolves, seer, ranger, and cobbler, PM your picks. Everyone else, sleep.

[Kitanna]

Inzil stayed late to clean up the mess left by the unfortunate Pitch's death. There was no need for the villagers to be reminded of their tragic mistake. However, the blood stain wasn't coming up out of the wood despite all his vigorous scrubbing. A rug of sorts would need to be put down before tomorrow.

The door to the tavern opened. The night air stuck in Inzil's throat. The sheer bitterness of it seized his lungs. This weather was too cold for decent Hobbitfolk to live in.

“We're closed and you know it,” he said to the intruder. His eyes never left the blood stain, his hands continuing their work.

“Won't you even serve us a mug of hot cider on a cold night like this?” Three pairs of snow covered Hobbit feet circled Inzil.

He got to his feet and shook his rag in their faces. “Go home to your families! How can you want hot cider or anything else after what we done to poor Pitch today. Get out of here.”

One of the intruders grabbed hold of Inzil's feet, wrestling him to the ground. When he was down another grabbed hold of his feet. The third grabbed a stray scarf and slipped it around Inzil's neck.

The barkeep spurted and choked, trying to kick off his attackers. As the life drained away his fight slowed. As the last breath escaped, there was a brief moment when a third eye shown on his forehead. The three dragged him out into the snow to leave him for their wolfy compatriots.

They went home content in the knowledge they had killed the seer.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
G55
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Day 2 Begins
If you did not vote yesterday and do not vote again today you will be modfired

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh. That was bad news...

Thinking positively, there should be a hint of some sort, probably clear enough in Zil's posting on D1 as otherwise the wolves are too darn lucky.

I'm going to look for something in there and suggest a few more pairs of eyes do the same so that we miss nothing.

[Nogrod]

Well, there goes the optimism...

I can't see an obvious reason for the wolves to pick Zil except that he was non-controversial and not suspected in any major way by anyone - and his early vote for G55 doesn't stand out in any way.

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times):

Originally Posted by Zil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Originally Posted by Zil

The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

[Nerwen]

Zilanalysis

#4. IC banter.

#16. Agrees with Kath that the Cobbler is particularly dangerous. Disagrees with Pitch that Menel's "obvious" advice on wolf-catching is particularly suspicious (using the phrase "I don't see that" –a possible hint?). Approves of Pitch being vocal, however. Points out that the cobbler needs to avoid Night-kills– this was a response to the exchange between Kath (#11), Agan (#12)and Pitch (#13). In context, it doesn't seem a particularly "Captain Obvious" statement at all– which is interesting since later it became something of an issue.


#32. IC banter. Responds to G55's and my own comments about Menel (#25, #26):

Originally Posted by Zil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Tells G55 (again in response to #26) that he recalls Agan calling the Cobbler "she" before.


#39. Accepts my pointing out (#33) that G55 and my posts commenting on Menel's "obviousness" actually crossed. Accepts Menel's clarification at #38.


#55. (responding to Legate):

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

Further comments that "The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon."

Disagrees with Pitch that Kath's question at #19 is suspicious. Is somewhat wary of Pitch.

Responding to Shasta at #53, says he too is "rather bothered" by G55, and may vote her.

Also in response to Shasta, who asks why those who "pounced" on Menel for "stating the obvious" didn't do the same to Zil (see #16.), says, "I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so?"


#56. Vote-post.

Originally Posted by Zil

Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

Conclusion: Well, it certainly looks pretty straightforward: his dream was most likely either G55 (wolf) or Menel (innocent). The good news is that it could not have been Pitch, since he is somewhat suspicious of him.

The voting-pattern yesterDay also strongly suggests G55 might be a wolf, rescued from the gallows by her comrades. (However, we should bear in mind that, by definition, this would be a perfect framing-opportunity.)

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.; edit 2: typo.

[Nogrod]

One thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of Menel: his quite strong statement "more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat" comes already at time when Pitch has suspected Menel, Nerwen has commented quite neutrally on it, and G55 has carried off with it. So there were actually only two suspicions on Menel at that time and he went that strong against them?

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

I'll post D1 voting and then I'll be off for some time. Be back later.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch 3
Nog -> Pitch 4
Legate -> G55 3

From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not). Also if G55 is a wolf then Legate looks quite good as that would have been extremely risky at the last minutes as he couldn't have been sure someone wouldn't come in and still vote for G55 (it was 8 minutes before the DL).

But there's one major "if" there: if G55 is a wolf. Now that we don't know, but if we'd have to vote now I'd be inclined to test that "if".

[Nerwen]

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

[Galadriel55]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 (2)
Agan -> Pitch (2)
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch (3)
Nog -> Pitch (xed with sally) (4)
Legate -> G55 (xed with Nog) (3)

(innocents in italics)

When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents. Instead of doing this by the tally, I'll go back and try to see when the suspicion on Pitch (possibly myself too, I'll see if there's some worthwhile suspicion) began to rise in relation to the tally. And I'll also comment on some things that were said yesterDay.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

Now, why do you say that?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

And that's an interesting choice of words....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern?



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And that's an interesting choice of words....

What do you find interesting in it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

G55, short of a Day One reveal, I don't think *anyone* has *ever* been killed on Night Two "solely because he was the Seer". Sorry, but this is just confusing the issue.

Now, in your previous post, you said this:

Originally Posted by G55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

*Here* you are pretty clear that you don't believe Seerish-ness was a significant factor at all, and *that's* what I was asking about.

[Nerwen]

...But anyway, I have to get some sleep. See you all later!

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by G55

What do you find interesting in it?

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them. Perhaps taking a closer look at the voting and timing would be beneficial to us, as I seem to recall a slew of votes all roughly at the same time. Or maybe that's just my time meld acting up again......

Anyways, I must be off. I will be on periodically to comment as I can, but today(RL) commences my five days without rest period of the show.....again.....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.

Originally Posted by some dictionary

Savage [meaning#2]: barbarous, beastly, bestial, bloodthirsty, bloody, brutal, brutish, cruel, devilish, diabolical, ferocious, fierce, harsh, inhuman, merciless, murderous, pitiless, ravening, ruthless, sadistic, vicious

Don't you agree that the loss of our Seer can be called brutal, cruel, murderous, or harsh perhaps? Honestly, people!

[Kath]

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil
Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

I will go do the ubiquitous Inzil analysis. The more eyes on his posts the better with all this talk of misrepresenting words going on!

[Kath]

Post 1:
I can't see anything in this that would suggest Seer. Given the current furore over G55's use of 'savage' - if we're picking at everything - Inzil says it here.

Post 2:
Apart from that sentence: 'meh, I don't see that' in response to Pitch again clues are well hidden if they're there. Does appear to be defending Menel, or at least trying to lessen or dampen suspicious of him. Also deflecting suspicion from Pitch arising as a result of his (Inzil's) disagreement with him over Menel.

Post 3:
Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.
Menel could be seen as suspicious but the people bandwaggoning him are much more suspicious. Is my reading of that. Suggesting perhaps not having dreamed Menel. He has merited a comment - if you are the Seer and you've dreamed of an innocent and you're trying to leave clues, this isn't enough to later use as evidence.

G55, Pitch and to a degree Agan were the people who had so far had something to say against Menel. Less so Agan, as she wrote that he could be 'either' and that she was waiting to make her mind up about him.

Post 4:
The above being said, Inzil is ignoring the stating the obvious from Menel. Or actually agreeing with it. That is quite a definitive support for Menel there.

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Post 5:
Thinks Pitch voted suddenly for Nog and occasionally wonders about Pitch. States that he is bothered by G55 and will likely vote for her. Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.

Post 6:
I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there.
This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.

The next sentence:
However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.
This is stronger. May be more likely to be the dream.

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)

If the dream choices are Menel and G55 I'm not sure I've really answered the question of which is more likely. Feels like G55, and the suspicion there was consistent.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kath

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

Well, I know that Inzil couldn't have dreamt me, because then he wouldn't have voted me. But to explain my point about the quote, he dismisses his first suspicion on me as a perhaps, maybe not. But the second one, concerning Menel, is what turns the tide.

Originally Posted by Kath

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Except that Pitch is a dead ordo.



I'm not feeling very well at the moment (or, rather, am feeling very unwell), so I don't think I can participate toDay as much as I would have liked to. I'll be around, but not as much as I would have liked.



EDIT: to add to my first point, if Inzil wanted to hint at my being evil, he would not have dismissed the first point so lightly. Instead, he puts emphasis on me questioning Menel - and votes me because of that, not because of the she-cobbler case or whatever else.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times): So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

I am not really sure if this isn't a bit stretched. What Inzil said about Menel does not sound very strong to me (at least what you quote - but I have to reread it myself to see what he said otherwise). But again, for sure, a Seer should leave hints (as certainly he would know) - but possibly on Day 1 they do not need to be so strong. If he dreamed of an innocent, he could have just listed that person among the bunch of random people he trusts. If he dreamed of a Wolf, then he might have voiced a mild suspicion.

I think I'll reread his posts myself to see what I can make of it. Also, there is still the question whether it was "random", or whether it was because the WWs actually spotted some Seerishness. In any case, it is clear that the WWs do want to kill the Seer, but then again, on first Night... I mean, that would have to be really good spotting on their part.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.

I think this, however, is certainly stretched.

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.
(...)
When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents.

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive; and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

However, there is some stuff G55 says which makes it sound genuine, and which also a desperate innocent could say, like this reaction to Shasta:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

or even this about Nog:

Originally Posted by G55

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

And I don't think the "savage" quote has much of a merit either. After all, people usually *do* say something when a Seer dies. Of course it can be faked, but I certainly don't think a Wolf would intentionally say such a thing in the sense of "mwahaha, that was soo savage! Did you see? I love blood!" - or whichever way it was that sally meant it.

Originally Posted by G55

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

Originally Posted by Kath

This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

(...)

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Wait, I don't get it... isn't Pitch dead and innocent???

Altogether, major observations: I am not sure what to make of Nog today, his activity in looking for clues about Inzil's death is sort of mingled with some rather confusing conclusions and most of all, certain "suggestive behavior", it seems to me. Nerwen comes and has some sharp points which look genuine. I am not sure about G55. Of course, if Nog is a Wolf, then yesterDay might have been a really tight escepe from the noose based on a fellow-save (and the same goes if Sally was the Wolf, or even if both of them were, since they crossposted), but then again, one could ask, if G55 is under suspicion (but then again, Day 1 suspicions might not mean much), would it be worth it for the WWs to save her one Night and still having her threatened (possibly even more) the next Day?

I will check on Zil's posts and be around...

EDIT: x-ed with G55.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

You'd act hedgehogishly too you it was your name instead of mine in yesterDay's tally.

(I'm doing it again, aren't I?)

Truth be told, when I look at my posts from the side, I see exactly what you mean. I guess I'm too frustrated with the village and my own inability to prove my innocence in a way other that by dying.

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive;

But it has happened before, especially with the first kill. In my past games more often that not the first kill was either a trailless one, one with a very confusing trail (eg someone who suspects half the village), or one who suspects an innocent. By killing the last kind of person, the wolves leave the village with the choice: to dismiss it as a fake-trail kill, or to analyse it based on the wolves thinking that person was the Seer - and since the village can't just throw the second option out they follow the false lead. (meaning that if A suspected B and was killed, possibly for Seer reasons, it would make sense that B could be a wolf).

Just why am I explaining all this? You know it already. The wolves could have a misleading trail as the chief motive.

Originally Posted by Legate

...and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

Bussing is what it looks like. On the other hand, maybe that's why it's something else. But if I had to say just based on those few posts, I'd say bussing.

Galadriel's posts today are pretty fishy. Just saying.

Originally Posted by G55

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.

A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

Originally Posted by Kath

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)

Noooooo! last time Agan posted that I had that incredibly annoying song stuck in my head all morning and now I will have it all evening. *hits head against wall and starts to listen to Laibach*

Next up: replying to stuff from late yesterDay. There really haven't been too many posts in this game...

[Aganzir]

Two of my favourite players gone (and partly because of me - sorry Pitch!). Where's the fun now? I quit.

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

I've had a fantastic day complete with psychopatic coworkers, meeting people who've done bad things and whom bad things have happened to, and sexual harassment. I'm drained and might go to sleep rather early.

By the way Nog, I saw you smoking in front of Kaisla just an hour ago. Whenever you look out the bus/car window when passing a pub, expect Nog to be there.

Also, for the sake of fairness I should tell you that while tortoise hunting yesterday, Lommy walked in on me sending a werewolf related PM (the contents of which she didn't see before I shooed her off). I may tell you who it was for when the game is over - before that, you're free to guess if you'd like.

Anyway.

I see Zilly's point in defending Menel and I don't think it necessarily means he dreamt of him. It's just, Menel looked like such an easy target, so even if only a couple of people had suspected him so far, it had the potential to develop into something more serious.

Originally Posted by G55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction. If he hadn't been the seer, his death would've looked none the worse for you. I find it extremely unlikely the wolves killed him to frame you, which you seem to be suggesting here.

I think G55's posts about Inzil's death look like damage control at the moment.

It seems Shasta hasn't only been misquoting me but also G55.

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.

Ps. I love blood.

[Kath]

Oh MASSIVE headdesk about Pitch - sorry! I caught up on yesterDay but clearly had a stupid moment as I was thinking about Inzil.

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!

[Kath]

As I'm clearly not with it ... I will vote now.

++Galadriel55

Based on my analysis of Inzil, the only real clues he seemed to leave were about Menel and G55. The ones about G55 seemed clearer and the ones about Menel pointed to his innocence anyway.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate, bolding mine

(I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind)

More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly.

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.

Originally Posted by Kath

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!

<3

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

++Galadriel55

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so I have re-read Zil's posts and it indeed seems as if, if he dreamt of anybody at all, it was most likely Menel. Of the living people he interacted with/mentioned in some way that it gives merit, apart from him, he mentions G55 negatively, but only once (in relation to his vote), and Kath with sort of nothing-this-way-or-another-seeming statement.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.

Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.

That of course cannot be ruled out, but then again I wonder if even in such a case, the Seer might not have felt obliged to post a hint of "I had no dream toNight". But okay, maybe that's nonsense, because the one person who could decipher it more easily would be the cobbler, and that's probably not the person the Seer would want to know about his identity (even though he couldn't be targeted again by the cobbler, still, the cobbler would probably want to contact the Wolves, and tell them about who the Seer was, if he/she knew the identity of the Seer).

EDIT: x-ed with two votes! and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

I still don't get it. *headdesk* What's wrong with mourning the Seer and saying that it is a great loss for the village?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

No way!

Originally Posted by Agan

To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction.

If he did not, why are people talking about it? An ordo could look at it and see that he voted for me before he was killed. Even if he was not the seer - just see my reply to Legate.

Originally Posted by Agan

Ps. I love blood.

Who would have though so?




NOGALYSIS

(smileys removed)

First post does not yield anything.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

That sounds like Nog.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one...

PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later...

The middle part is a bit confusing... Nog is saying that Pitch's reasoning is not the best because it applies to everyone?

And this is also the post-with-the-smiley-that-looks-weird-to-me.

#49- Whoa! That's overreacting, if you ask me.

I don't think Pitch used the 40 posts to "partially justify his vote", as Nog says. Pitch explained clearly why he's voting Nog: because of not committing to a suspicion.

Then, his long speech where he talks about "trying out something" doesn't make much sense either. This sounds more like a guilty Nog, because that's usually when he doesn't sound logical to me.

#71 - thoughts on voting. Says will not vote Menel. Thinks either I or Pitch could be wolves, but probably not both.

#74 - the reply to Menel. See my post from before for comments:

Originally Posted by G55

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

#75 - debates between lynching me (for my turns) or Pitch (for forced vote reasons)

#77 - elaborates on his suspicion on Pitch

#80 -

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

#83 - votes Pitch.

#85 - tells Legate he didn't vote me because I usually get lynched early because I'm always "like that". Which I guess is true. But then what was the point of saying several times that I am suspicious, he could vote for me, etc., to then say something similar to what he said about Menel - I get lynched early too often for these reasons?

DAY 2

#81, 90 - looks at Zil. Thinks he could have dream Menel.

#92 - gives support for Menel's dream to be either Menel or me. The support is kinda... stretchy, though. Especially on me being a wolf, I daresay.

#93 - speculates on the possibilities of "if G55 is a wolf". His thoughts here are based on logical argument. Considers "testing that 'if'".



Conclusion: Nog doesn't sit right with me. Definitely someone I would consider voting. I would expect Nog to be more logical in the places I've mentioned, more decisive in his suspicions (well, do you or don't you?), and more calm when he is suspected. He seemed very eager to avoid votes (sorry for the bad phrasing), with that smile to Pitch right before the vote when what he says sounds like something of a completely opposite mood, and then he tried to ridicule Pitch's reasoning, which gives the impression of "I don't want you to think he's right -- Badly!". He sounds kinda desperate in there, and illogical. I don't like that.

So yeah, I'd be very wary of Noggins.


Edit: xed since 110 - oi, that's a lot of posts

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

Well, I'm not here to convince you about something I can only speculate about. I can only explain myself better to make you understand my point, but not to convince you. Unless you're a wolf, then you know as much as I do about what really went on in their minds last Night.

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?

[Galadriel55]

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly.

How nice

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.

For sure, and like I have noted already before, they actually cross-posted at that point - so theoretically, it could even be possible for them to both be Wolves. But that is a lot of speculation already, and it all comes back to G55's role anyway.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?

Not very much. I get the general concept - that much is clear to me. But now it seems you are actually saying something different again. So what you are saying now is: the WWs wanted to frame any innocent, so they killed Zil. Not because they would think he was the Seer, but to frame any innocent. And because you were suspected by him, it is you who is being framed? Do I understand it right?

EDIT: x-ed with G55