WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here?

Easily.

Just as it reads: if Lottie is lynched and is innocent it means phantom is probably a goodie as well - and thus his hinting is something you should pay heed to, and thus not a baddie bluff. But if Lottie turned out a baddie (and not Shelob), then you should not listen to the siren songs made by tp as he would be a mate in crime.

What Lottie has to do with tp? You must be blind (or you have not read the thread).

tp declares Lottie good and not to be lynched like on D1. tp risks / causes no-lynch to save Lottie on "overtime" - with no explanation whatsoever. How do you read it? Baddies (Lottie choosing tp as her first minion felt like a very reasonable choice).

But then his increased hinting about his role made me uneasy. If he was indeed calling for Sam in earnest then we should not lynch him as not to deny him his chance to discuss with Sam - but he could be a baddie as well who came up with this scheme of acting like Frodo and possibly straying Sam into guessing wrong.

That's why - heavily suspecting him and Lottie doing things evilly together, but being afraid he could on anpther interpretation have a goodie-role - I wanted to find it out for good by lynching Lottie (whose role was instrumental in finding it out).

Why did I think tp was Frodo? Look at his early post where he says that if Sam makes it wrong we lose the entire game... Isn't that rather extreme interpretation of our situation? Well not according to phantom as the game is lost if he isn't allowed to discuss with Sam and organise the end-game...

Quote:

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be.

I agree with you with Fea being a possibly tempting target for stinging (actually said it alredy toDay), but what makes you so confident she just can't be / isn't Shelob? You make it sound quite catecorigal...

I also agree with the top priority, well who doesn't as the game ends with the death of Shelob

, but I'd be happier to lynch a probable spiderling than a possible Shelob - if you get what I mean? And no, I'm not saying we should rush lynching Fea. I think we should look widely around.

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 11:59 AM

Okay. Re-doing and finishing the list I started earlier toDay.

Fea: As I've said now twice - a possible / probable spiderling because of being a safe sting for Shelob (not too high chance Sam rangers or heals her but not easily lynched either).

Shasta: A basic dilemma between a possibly reasonable trick and needing to pull out an afterwards explanation. It would be odd he had not noticed Lottie had been after Zil for more or less the whole game though.

Lhuna: One that could have had nerves to sting phantom as he seemed to trust her openly. But like I said earlier, knowing tp and his ability to make his point known then stinging him would have been a really bad idea as he could make himself known to Sam for healing (Shelob couldn't have known he was Frodo anyway).

Nerwen: She was suspecting phantom enough to vote him on D2. Would have been more or less suicidal to sting tp as she was the only one tp consistently wished to lynch. Unless she felt so much pressure from him that she decided to act on it sooner than later?

Inzil: Here I see my lack of time as I have no decent view on him (well he seems always to be a hard one for me to read). But I see many people have suspected him, so why wouldn't someone suspecting him come forwards with a kind of summa summarum suspicion, why is it you suspect him so that even I kew where to look and at which points.

wilwa: I think everyone of us have had their fair share of suspicion (except for Fea maybe), but none speaks of you. So it seems that even the baddies feel restrained to question you (I have been waiting for someone to do so), so it's good to have one on board we do not even consider lynching and thus one choice less.

Finland meets Russia in ice hockey semifinals and I'll start to look at the game with Greenie, but I'll have my laptop open and try to view this every now and then the next two hours...

Lhunardawen · 05-13-2011, 12:25 PM

Hmmm. Not a lot of new posts. It's late and I'm tired and should really go to bed.

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:

Quote:

I'm virtually certain there are two baddies in the trio I mentioned earlier (Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna), but I think Lhuna has just made herself my first lynch choice.

Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

Good night (morning, actually), all.

wilwarin538 · 05-13-2011, 12:32 PM

K, that's what I figured you meant by it Nog, but initially upon reading it, it almost sounded like you were saying I would look bad if Lottie was innocent (and since you have seemed to trust me, I didn't get why you thought that). Makes sense now.

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.

Inziladun · 05-13-2011, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

I'd be tempted to put Nog behind Nerwen, but I basically agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:

Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

I can't really fault the vote, though I'd like to see Shasta come back before I would follow suit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.

I see your points and they're valid, but I can't totally rule Fea out as Shelob. I will refrain from making her my focus, though.

wilwarin538 · 05-13-2011, 12:46 PM

Uh, I wish I could have put more time into this today.

I actually think our best bet is Nog right now for Shelob. The reasons he went after Lottie yesterDay don't make a lot of sense to me. And out of the possibilities he seems the most likely to me to have attacked Phantom. And he's trusting me very easily, which I appreciate, but also makes me really uncomfortable.

I also see Lhuna as being unlikely as Shelob, and it's because her and I haven't played together very often/recently, and I know that sounds odd. Though she could have been the person stung from the beginning. Inzil and Nerwen have both sort of gone under my radar, but the thing that stands out about them to me is that neither of them seemed to clue in to who Phantom was yesterday, when seriously it was beyond obvious.

It's somewhat on gut, but from what I can see, Nog just seems most likely to be Shelob.

x'ed with Inzil

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I actually think our best bet is Nog right now for Shelob. The reasons he went after Lottie yesterDay don't make a lot of sense to me. And out of the possibilities he seems the most likely to me to have attacked Phantom. And he's trusting me very easily, which I appreciate, but also makes me really uncomfortable.

I also see Lhuna as being unlikely as Shelob, and it's because her and I haven't played together very often/recently, and I know that sounds odd. Though she could have been the person stung from the beginning.

I am trusting you wilwa because of what you say there in the quote (see the bolded part), which you said already back then. You were the only one to counter the idea that Lhuna was saved/healed by Sam. Having looked at your consequent actions from that perspective have made me more confident of it. tp's actions - and him turning out Frodo made it obvious. So that should be quite common knowledge right now.

Actually I think it would have been against the best interests of the baddies to try and bring trust to you forwards in the open as it would lessen - if not deny - their chances of lynching you. Shelob and spiderlings would stay quiet about you or try to get you lynched.

I do hope you had more to say than hunch or feel you seem to refer to with Lhuna, Fea and partly even me. It's very hard to me to follow your lead if you play it that way.

PS. What in the Lottie / tp affair you do not understand? It is perfectly clear. Even if tp disapproves if not everyone takes his every great idea as self evident truth, you could use your own mind as well as we need to catch baddies here. (Sorry, but I hear tp talking behind your words)

EDIT-ADD: heh, I just realised where your suspicion comes from... Oh my. So having brains and cababilities of inference makes you suspect of knowing things like only one would know. Blah. Well, then you guys are better off without me... or then please start playing.

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 01:29 PM

Finlad leads against Russia 2-1!

wilwarin538 · 05-13-2011, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Actually I think it would have been against the best interests of the baddies to try and bring trust to you forwards in the open as it would lessen - if not deny - their chances of lynching you. Shelob and spiderlings would stay quiet about you or try to get you lynched.

I strongly disagree. It would be better to have everyone trust me, and then have me trust Shelob (therefore having everyone trust Shelob, and making her invincible). So I'm not trusting anyone, unless I have very very good reasons.

Quote:

I do hope you had more to say than hunch or feel you seem to refer to with Lhuna, Fea and partly even me. It's very hard to me to follow your lead if you play it that way.

It's not hunch, I have reasons, but I have no choice but to label them as hunches since I can't share my reasons.

Quote:

PS. What in the Lottie / tp affair you do not understand? It is perfectly clear. Even if tp disapproves if not everyone takes his every great idea as self evident truth, you could use your own mind as well as we need to catch baddies here. (Sorry, but I hear tp talking behind your words)

A situation that occurs often in this game that makes no sense to me: "Oh I suspect this person A, so I'm going to lynch this other person B, who A trusts, in order to shed more light on A, instead of just lynching A themselves". That's sort of rediculous. You guys lynched Lottie for the pure reason of finding out more about Phantom. Why not just lynch Phantom and find out quicker?

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

A situation that occurs often in this game that makes no sense to me: "Oh I suspect this person A, so I'm going to lynch this other person B, who A trusts, in order to shed more light on A, instead of just lynching A themselves". That's sort of rediculous. You guys lynched Lottie for the pure reason of finding out more about Phantom. Why not just lynch Phantom and find out quicker?

JUST BECAUSE OF WHAT I AND YOU SAID! That phantom could have been Frodo as well! Too much risk involved as giving you a chance to speak with him could be valuable. (If his advice to you is this... then we should have lynched him and his pride and have Lottie with us)

*frustration*

EDIT: X'd with wilwa.

Oh my. Well, your choice.

wilwarin538 · 05-13-2011, 01:28 PM

Ok, my official guess: Nog as Shelob, Inzil and Nerwen as spiderlings.

All 3 of them yesterday wanted to lynch Lottie to shed light on Phantom's role. I still refuse to believe that people didn't see he was Frodo, everyone was aware that Frodo would be trying to hint to Sam, and everyone should know that Phantom wouldn't suddenly stop caring about a game, so Phantom acting defeatist, and Frodo knowing he's not going to last the Night and needing to hint to Sam, Phantom = Frodo. There was really no other good reason to go for Lottie, it was all about trying to find out more about Phantom. The baddies wouldn't want to lynch Phantom himself, because that would be a waste, they wanted the double kills.

Shasta was also voting Lottie for a similar reason, so I can see the possibility that he might be a spiderling, but I'm more inclined towards Nerwen and Inzil.

And I have to leave for work in 10 minutes. *sigh* This game is frustrating.

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I still refuse to believe that people didn't see he was Frodo, everyone was aware that Frodo would be trying to hint to Sam, and everyone should know that Phantom wouldn't suddenly stop caring about a game, so Phantom acting defeatist, and Frodo knowing he's not going to last the Night and needing to hint to Sam, Phantom = Frodo.

And you think a baddie phantom would not have been able to pull that kind of stunt off?

That was exactly my worry that he was Frodo! And I said that already...

phantom stopping caring about the game? Haven't you seen that trick been pulled off time after time and do you think he couldn't use it as a baddie or as Frodo (to call your attention, in both cases).

We didn't know which one he was yesterDay.

He was either Frodo or a baddie pulling a Frodo. That's why I wanted to check Lottie (whom he had defended without any argumented reason from early on).

Nogrod · 05-13-2011, 01:37 PM

Why do you wilwa think I asked you to chek his posts?

Because I thought you are Sam and tp is Frodo (depending on Lottie's role). If Lottie would have been a baddie then tp would have most probably been one as well and his Frodo.thing would have been a stunt.

How hard is that to understand?

X'd with wilwa & zil

wilwarin538 · 05-13-2011, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And you think a baddie phantom would not have been able to pull that kind of stunt off?

That was exactly my worry that he was Frodo! And I said that already...

phantom stopping caring about the game? Haven't you seen that trick been pulled off time after time and do you think he couldn't use it as a baddie or as Frodo (to call your attention, in both cases).

We didn't know which one he was yesterDay.

He was either Frodo or a baddie pulling a Frodo. That's why I wanted to check Lottie (whom he had defended without any argumented reason from early on).

No one else was acting at all like Frodo. There's no one in this game who doesn't know what they are doing, no one in this game as Frodo would just sit back and let Phantom fool Sam into choosing wrong. It was obvious, I'm sticking by that.

And now I really have to leave.

Please just all vote together everyone. If I'm wrong I'll take the full blame.

++Nogrod

satansaloser2005 · 05-13-2011, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zee rulezzzz

If Frodo is attacked in the Night, the following happens:
1. Sam is notified at Dawn after Frodo is attacked, but is not told Frodo’s identity. Even if he finds Frodo by the end of the Day, he will not be able to save him. Instead, he is able to PM with Frodo during the Night (if he holds his guess until after Nightfall, he can PM for the remainder of the Night) where Frodo would normally turn into a spawn of Shelob. (Note: Frodo is not told the identity of Shelob, so he would not be able to give it to Sam.) At the end of that Night, Frodo dies.
2. If/When Sam finds Frodo’s body, he will strike out at Shelob’s lair. While he cannot kill Shelob on his own, he has the strength and anger to prevent Shelob from making an attack that Night. He will then spend his Evening with Frodo, and when Frodo dies Sam will spend the next Night in mourning/angst.
In game terms, this means that the Night after Frodo is attacked, both Sam and Shelob will be out of power, and the Night after that Sam will be unable to stop Shelob from attacking anyone.

.

Inziladun · 05-13-2011, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Ok, my official guess: Nog as Shelob, Inzil and Nerwen as spiderlings.

All 3 of them yesterday wanted to lynch Lottie to shed light on Phantom's role. I still refuse to believe that people didn't see he was Frodo, everyone was aware that Frodo would be trying to hint to Sam, and everyone should know that Phantom wouldn't suddenly stop caring about a game, so Phantom acting defeatist, and Frodo knowing he's not going to last the Night and needing to hint to Sam, Phantom = Frodo. There was really no other good reason to go for Lottie, it was all about trying to find out more about Phantom. The baddies wouldn't want to lynch Phantom himself, because that would be a waste, they wanted the double kills.

Difficult as it may seem to believe, not everyone is always on board with tp's schemes. I never know when to trust him, and I've learned not to take all that he says at face value.

Also, like Shasta, you seem to ignore the fact that I wanted to lynch Lottie starting around Day 2. Shedding light on tp was an afterthought.

x/d with Nog and Wilwa

05-13-2011, 11:59 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. Re-doing and finishing the list I started earlier toDay. Fea: As I've said now twice - a possible / probable spiderling because of being a safe sting for Shelob (not too high chance Sam rangers or heals her but not easily lynched either). Shasta: A basic dilemma between a possibly reasonable trick and needing to pull out an afterwards explanation. It would be odd he had not noticed Lottie had been after Zil for more or less the whole game though. Lhuna: One that could have had nerves to sting phantom as he seemed to trust her openly. But like I said earlier, knowing tp and his ability to make his point known then stinging him would have been a really bad idea as he could make himself known to Sam for healing (Shelob couldn't have known he was Frodo anyway). Nerwen: She was suspecting phantom enough to vote him on D2. Would have been more or less suicidal to sting tp as she was the only one tp consistently wished to lynch. Unless she felt so much pressure from him that she decided to act on it sooner than later? Inzil: Here I see my lack of time as I have no decent view on him (well he seems always to be a hard one for me to read). But I see many people have suspected him, so why wouldn't someone suspecting him come forwards with a kind of summa summarum suspicion, why is it you suspect him so that even I kew where to look and at which points. wilwa: I think everyone of us have had their fair share of suspicion (except for Fea maybe), but none speaks of you. So it seems that even the baddies feel restrained to question you (I have been waiting for someone to do so), so it's good to have one on board we do not even consider lynching and thus one choice less. Finland meets Russia in ice hockey semifinals and I'll start to look at the game with Greenie, but I'll have my laptop open and try to view this every now and then the next two hours... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

05-13-2011, 12:32 PM	#4
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	K, that's what I figured you meant by it Nog, but initially upon reading it, it almost sounded like you were saying I would look bad if Lottie was innocent (and since you have seemed to trust me, I didn't get why you thought that). Makes sense now. I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob. __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

05-13-2011, 12:46 PM	#6
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Uh, I wish I could have put more time into this today. I actually think our best bet is Nog right now for Shelob. The reasons he went after Lottie yesterDay don't make a lot of sense to me. And out of the possibilities he seems the most likely to me to have attacked Phantom. And he's trusting me very easily, which I appreciate, but also makes me really uncomfortable. I also see Lhuna as being unlikely as Shelob, and it's because her and I haven't played together very often/recently, and I know that sounds odd. Though she could have been the person stung from the beginning. Inzil and Nerwen have both sort of gone under my radar, but the thing that stands out about them to me is that neither of them seemed to clue in to who Phantom was yesterday, when seriously it was beyond obvious. It's somewhat on gut, but from what I can see, Nog just seems most likely to be Shelob. x'ed with Inzil __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

05-13-2011, 01:29 PM	#8
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Finlad leads against Russia 2-1! __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

05-13-2011, 01:28 PM	#11
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Ok, my official guess: Nog as Shelob, Inzil and Nerwen as spiderlings. All 3 of them yesterday wanted to lynch Lottie to shed light on Phantom's role. I still refuse to believe that people didn't see he was Frodo, everyone was aware that Frodo would be trying to hint to Sam, and everyone should know that Phantom wouldn't suddenly stop caring about a game, so Phantom acting defeatist, and Frodo knowing he's not going to last the Night and needing to hint to Sam, Phantom = Frodo. There was really no other good reason to go for Lottie, it was all about trying to find out more about Phantom. The baddies wouldn't want to lynch Phantom himself, because that would be a waste, they wanted the double kills. Shasta was also voting Lottie for a similar reason, so I can see the possibility that he might be a spiderling, but I'm more inclined towards Nerwen and Inzil. And I have to leave for work in 10 minutes. sigh This game is frustrating. __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

05-13-2011, 01:37 PM	#13
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Why do you wilwa think I asked you to chek his posts? Because I thought you are Sam and tp is Frodo (depending on Lottie's role). If Lottie would have been a baddie then tp would have most probably been one as well and his Frodo.thing would have been a stunt. How hard is that to understand? X'd with wilwa & zil __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...