WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[skip spence]

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 1:

His first post includes this paragraph which in retrospect made my hair stand up, there is something very unnerving about it.

Originally Posted by Legate

It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...

A possible parallel is how Glirdan was caught as the ranger for talking about the ranger in third person... Very clever wolves indeed

He then went on to start this cobbler talk that took up much of Day One as far as discussions went.

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

Originally Posted by Legate

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Later Leggy responds to Greenie who voices concerns that this talk concerning cobblers in general is a distraction.

Originally Posted by Legate

You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

Yes, but what can people's reaction to general ideas on how to deal with a cobbler, that we have yet no idea who he or she is, do to help us? I fail to see any use in that discussion, it strikes me as a distraction only.

Legate than post a few longish but pretty hollow posts. No strong opinions on anybody or anything, and seems content to continue to discuss general game-play and such...

Eventually he votes Lottie rather apologetically:

Originally Posted by Legate

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...
...
++Lottie

Also of interest is how Ozban votes Legate

Originally Posted by Ozzy

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

Day 2 to come...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 2.

Starts by saying how bad it is that the Seer was lynched and how good it is that the ranger made a save.

Also singles out three people whom he suspects based on the events of day 1, namely Me, Glirdy and Nogrod.

I think there definitely was at least one Wolf among the Shasta-voters, trying to hide in the crowd (unless it was even Lottie who started it, for example). I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay, skip at least was the kind of a person who seemed to echo a lot of thoughts others said without adding much of his own. There was something that unnerved me about Glirdy, but I have to re-read his posts again, especially what he had said about the Lottie-Shasta thing.

And I am also not quite comfortable with Nogrod's vote - in fact, like I said yesterDay, I am not entirely comfortable with him in general - he seems to me a bit more calculative than he usually is as an innocent. Like, when he said "I suspect Shasta, and although I don't like bandwaggons, I will vote him" - that sounded a bit fake. I would have expected the innocent Nogrod to be sort of more, hmm, self-reflective, like, to ask himself: "Oh really? Is it right that I suspect him if all the village wants to lynch him?" And not to just shrug it like this. I would like to take a look at when he first started to suspect Shasta...

Leggy then has a short exchange with Ozzy questioning his vote and motivations for it.

With post #127 he makes a list, with rather lengthy explanations which basically boils down to him suspecting everyone a little bit without making any strong commitments. He fails to see anything particularly bad about Pitch despite Shasta's trail that most everyone else picked up on. He also maintains that Shasta was not that suspicious.

Here he does acknowledge that Shasta might well have dreamed Pitch though, interestingly...

Originally Posted by Legate

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

Then he makes a 360 and seemingly concludes that nothing can be learned from Shasta's lynch (though the phrasing here is a bit muddy, not sure if I follow what you mean, Legate)

There is of course nothing good at lynching the Seer, but the worst (which is worse than "bad", in case you were wondering) is that it cannot even give us much material to analyse. There would have been something sort-of positive if we could at least get clues from it. But this is pointless, as I have already concluded that there already is something to find there. See above...

His case agaist Lottie is quite convincing though. Does raise a few good points against her:

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

[Nogrod]

I have some time in my hands right now and will go checking the voting from yesterDay.

Just two points before I do that (and you can thus see where I'm coming from reading the votes).

I do think that for a wolf the most persuasive option yesterDay was voting Pitchie with the crowd. It gathers the least attention and is easy to explain the next Day. So I'd bet that at least two of our three wolves voted for Pitch - or would be very surprised if they went the other way. Voting someone else would be just too reckless attention-grabbing.

Although I must say that wilwa has a good point there in saying that the wolves (and the cobbler) might have wanted to see someone else lynched yesterDay. If that would have happened we'd have Pitchie along and there'd be the same insecurities on him. But had they dared to try that so openly, grabbing all the attention? I mean they could win one Day but in the worst situation expose themselves, basically cancelling any advance they'd gained by not lynching Pitchie?

Okay. Going in to read back.

[Boromir88]

I found out I can't be here for the DL today and won't have much time, so I'm going to catch up in the thread and then gotta vote.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

I agree with this. They could both end up being innocent, but I see it very unlikely that they are both wolves. I feel very mixed up about the two of them. Some things they say seem very innocent to me, while others jump out as guilty. I think I'll need to take another look at them, but as it stands now I wouldn't object to voting for either of them.

Now for everyone else, I have some vague opinions. I'll be going back through everything soon so this could change, but just off memory and gut feelings, this is where I'm at:

Leaning guilty:

Lottie
Legate
Eönwë (I'll admit, that is purely a gut thing, this could change once I go back and look more closely)

Leaning innocent:

Nerwen
Boro
Nog

Very neutral:

Greenie
Inziladun
Ozban
Skip

[Nogrod]

I'm still reading yesterDay's posting but while doing that I ran to my own post discussing the oddity of D1 Shasta-wagon.

So Lottie gave Shasta the very first vote in the game. Inzil gave him the second personal vote (making it 2-1-1). Technically I'd say those are not yet bandwagoning - which doesn't mean they are innocents.

But looking at the wagon itself which practically sealed Shasta's fate, it was made by:

Glirdyranger (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitchinnocent (5th vote)

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I
If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

[A Little Green]

Phew, back here at last. Again, my apologies for yesterDay - toDay I should be here more or less until DL.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

Wilwa's scenario nicely sums up what I was thinking about. There is something off in the exchange between Nog and Inzil. I'll check that more thoroughly if I have time - I want to compose a list of some kind and read Skip.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro and two Skips

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Skip is innocent, then the whole wagon was built by innocents.

What a "funny" thought.

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

He didn't vote for Shasta actually (D1), but he started discussion that led to it, and then he voted Lottie, but not sooner than first Shasta-vote was cast (by Lottie actually)

I just don't trust him, I will probably vote for him if something big doesn't happen.

Later...

Edit: X'ed from 235 onwards.

[Boromir88]

Well, that was of little help. I'm having no idea what to think or feel as my creative streak has now been lost with my mind.

Other than I think Nerwen was the one protected by Glirdan the previous night and is therefor most likely innocent. She could still be the cobbler of course (what rotten luck would that be?), but is not in anyway looking like one right now. I'd still like to see more posts from her, because overall I've liked reading her posts.

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death. But I agreed with her about Pitch yesterday, and despite what Nog said earlier today, she never wavered. A wolf could push for the easy lynch, but I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else. I would have expected the cobbler to waver and be unsure on how to deal with Pitch.

Oi, who to suspect though...all I ever was warry on Nog about was uneasy gut feelings. Feeling better by him today. His voting has certainly been questionable, but I think he always showed fair caution towards Pitch yesterday and tried offering different ideas. One of the wolves then could have piggy-backed on to claim they weren't going to vote for Pitch because of what happened with Day 1 on Shasta.

Although, like wilwa said yesterday that is a completely different situation. At least the way I see it, we had substantial enough reasons to suspecting and voting for Pitch, and Pitch knew it too. He really had no defense, other than having no clue why Shasta suspected him the way he did.

++Eonwe

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wilwa seems a bit feistier and aggressive than her normal charming, relaxing butterfly persona. This could be from a combination of past experiences as a queen wolf with Zeus and now Glirdan's death.

Haha, definetely both. I think after working so closely with my dear Zeusykins, I've taken on a bit of his attitude. And for once I felt good about my BFF, and I think he felt good about me, so I'm super annoyed that he's gone, and him being the Ranger just makes it that much worse. To be left with only 1 of the 3 Gifteds, the Hunter certainly is not the most useful of them (no offense).

Anyway, I have a notebook in front of me and will be going back to the beginning to take some notes and try to get a better idea of everything. As long as my mild ADD doesn't kick in, I should get this done fairly efficiently and have something useful to say.

x'ed with Legate and Greenie, and yes it did take me over 10 minutes to type this, I'm telling you, ADD....

[skip spence]

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

[Eönwë]

What!? It seems we must have some psychic wolves... *would glare at Shasta but he's sadly not here any more*

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I don't think the Hunter should reveal at all unless in danger of being lynched, as then we'd have a known innocent that the wolves hopefully won't attack out of fear (if this does happen, then hopefully it will be later on, when the hunter's more likely to choose correctly).

Anyway, I'm going to reread yesterDay before I do anything else.