WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The luck of Gorthaur himself, it would seem. Why Glirdan?, is the question.

And should we try to see who he guarded the previous night, or would that be a fruitless endeavor?

Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?

[Nogrod]

*Great they have long commercial breaks*

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Edit: Crossed with Nog...you're going to have to explain how Nerwen would have been the "free kill?" That seems like a pretty strong assumption of who the wolves selected the previous night, as if you know?

After Pitch turned innocent (not Shasta's wolf-dream), I thought it was either Nerwen or Legate who was Shasta's dream... and I'm now quite positive it was Nerwen the Night before.

I was writing in a hurry... like I am now. *Goes off to be back*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

Agreed. Well done, mate.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.



That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

Now, here he says he thinks Shasta dreamed of an innocent Nerwen, and not a Pitchwolf. On the last bit, he was saying that Shasta's precious few words about Nerwen didn't make sense unless he'd dreamed of her. Actually, there could have been other possibilities, a fact I brought up myself to him.
Now others, namely Legate, had also been pushing for the Nerwen stance, so I don't see why they'd have keyed on this.

Some of this next was a post count, which I edited out.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

This had to have been what sealed Glirdy's fate, since I don't think he posted anything else at all that Day. Since he's dead, it would seem the wolves found his description of the save accurate enough to believe he was the Ranger, as proved true.

[Nogrod]

Ok, Jack Bauer is still alive... but the Western civilization, as we know it, is still hanging on a loose thread. *wonders how come?*


Boro, here's my explanation you asked for - and I think it has enough ideas to be shared in length for other people to reflect on.

So I was reading the thread through two hours before the game started more or less secure it was not me whom the ranger saved the Night before - and thus more or less confident I'd be alive toDay.

It all seemed to go down to Nerwen being the one.

Pitchie was not a wolf so that was not Shasta's dream. That was what I thought his "hint" was yesterDay, as you can read from there. His other comments all seemed to be in-discussion like. So where was I wrong?

I still agreed with what you said Boro, that knowing Shasta, he would have left a hint of some kind, and if it was not Pitchie, there had to be another one. So armed with that I went back to the thread and well, there seems to be no better candidate for his N1 dream than Nerwen.

Why so?

Shasta said of Legate that he's okay, for now, because of what he was trying to do (stirring the discussion). Well, a seer would not say that ("for now") of someone he has dreamt of - but rather on someone whom he might check out later. Later he strongly disagreed with him on the cobbler, but I'd not take it as anything else than just disagreeing on a subject. The "for now" seems to propose he was maybe considering to dream of him but had not done it on N1. How he talked of Legate would surely be an odd and inconclusive way for a seer to say "this guy is innocent" - I mean surely the posterity would not have caught that.

Also her suspicion with Greenie was clearly based - underlinedly so - on her thinking Lottie (who attacked him) to be genuine.

What he said about Lottie you all can see was from pure annoyance... and him not wishing to vote for her is a point indeed. (Well, now as I rethink this for the hundreth time I do actually see another scenario here: Shasta dreamt her an innocent and was frustrated seeing her doing what she did - and therefore declined on voting her in the grandiose manner he did, with the risk of worsening his own chances of survival)

Not taking in the latest scenario (which I came to think of only now), it seemed that Nerwen was the clear answer - as he had to leave a hint of a kind.

What I thought was specifically this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler

Now that bolded word seems like unnecessary thing. And add to that, that he made a special declaration later that he is "most okay with Nerwen". It's like two notes on the same thing, Nerwen's innocence.

Keeping in mind that was all he said of others, it was the evident conclusion. And I had just reached that conclusion when the Day broke... and 24 started...



Anyway, I think there are more interesting questions to be made.

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

Or how did the wolves react to the "easy scenario" -voting yesterDay? Did they just join the flock or did they try to get away from it - knowing Pitchie was innocent as they did? I do think the voting was odd, once again, and there were more than enough good excuses for the wolves to vote this way or that.


Okay, it's late and I need to go to sleep quite soon but I'll go back to look at the voting at least before I resign for a while.

[Nogrod]

In retrospect it is easy to say, that the beginning of D2 was really odd as no one seemed to pay heed to the issue we'd face that Day. Though for wolves it was not a retrospective thing: they must have known the situation and its implications from the get go...

There was a serious issue with Pitch to be dealt with - like he himself said that by the Ockham's razor he's the one to check out... and to be fair, we hit the ideas only when we do.


So how did it start?


Boro and I just commented on the ranger-save.

Legate made a long post speculating on this and that but not touching the issue.

Boro says Shasta would have left a hint.

Ozban answers Leg's question on him.

Legate says he didn't find anything from Shasta's posting. (!!!) And comments on Ozban's answer.

Pitchie says Shasta might have hinted on innocent Nerwen because he couldn't have hinted at Pitchwolf (which we now know is true). NB. See how a known innocent acts in comparison!!!

Boro comes with his analysis of Shasta's posting and saying the inevitable: on the basis of Shasta's posting, Pitchie is the one to suspect.

Skip crossposts with Boro and defends his "not willing to disclose the reasons" by saying he thought Lottie was the seer. Wonders if Shasta would have left some hints, maybe Pitch! NB. That was a sneaky way of hinting at it (remember he crossposted) while not committing to it!

Nog speculates about the interpretation of last-minute votes - and goes out saying "too much coming fore puzzling my mind" (I had seen Boro's post about Shasta & Pitch and skip's defence while previewing the post).

Pitch comments on Skip.

Legate makes a list of people - for Pitchie, no mention of his possible role in relation to Shasta! Light defence of him - but in a roundabout way...

Nog comments on Shasta's actions and says him being the seer could explain his suspicious-looking attack "out of the blue" on Pitch - but feels it problematic interpraetation as it would mean Shasta was quite a reckless seer.

Legate answers a question to him by me, wonders why people thought Shasta more guilty than Lottie, then says: it is equally possible Shasta dreamt of Pitchwolf or Nerwinnocent; says Boro's points are convincing but still thinks Pitchie is innocent (what?), believes Shasta dreamt of Nerwinnocent (what? compare to the earlier "equally possible").



Bah... I'm not going to continue on this as it looks like it takes hours and I think I've found enough for the work for now. I really would like to hear what Legate has to say of this record.

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To me it looks like someone who knew very well Pitchie was innocent but who wished to lay low as not to be seen as one not too keen on raising the discussion or hammering it out. I know him to be such an intelligent guy that it totally baffles me he does not entertain the possibility Pitchie is a wolf earlier - and when he feels forced to take sides he nicely takes "the right side" against "all evidence" we had thus far (and not discussing the evidence but just taking sides).

Or is he the cobbler? That could explain a lot as well...

Could be. I believe it was Pitch who brought that up yesterday. The cobbler would have been in a peculiar situation of what he/she should do. Not knowing anyone's role whether to defend him and focus everything away from Pitch or just go on with what was turning out to be the easy lynch yesterday.

[Nogrod]

I'm off to sleep, but here's my two cents on the situation.

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue. And Lottie, for other reasons (=yesterDays posting with all those scenarios of her intentionally playing the seer after getting caught).

I first added Zil to this list for his "ready quotes" for what the wolves thought... but looking at his answer here I must agree it wouldn't take but a look back at what Glirdy said... something I haven't done myself.

Back later toDay.

Someone should check the voting - and especially the reasons given, and how they relate to what the people have said earlier. I'm not sure how much we can read from those as it would have been easy for a wolf to either back the lynching of Pitch or be against it, but it would be good to have that on our sight for review anyway. Sometimes the small details open the answers...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Legate and wilwa look suspicious on the account of trying to evade the Pitch-issue.

Evade? I was one of the firsts to vote for him! I was going on all Day about how there was a chance he was guilty so we had to lynch him to find out. He sadly turned out innocent, but we had a very good reason to go for him.

[Boromir88]

Nogrod good enough for me. When I asked it was kind of a spur of the moment thought, like...wait why would he assume Nerwen was the "free kill?" Not thinking about the lynch yesterday where we now know Shasta could not have dreamt of Pitch.

Also, taking into account what Inzil has found today (readily available indeed!) it appears our Ranger was telling us he guarded Nerwen the previous night. Which the wolves would probably have been looking for and thus were able to target Glirdan.

Edit: crossed with Nog

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like why didn't they kill Nerwen, or if it was someone else who was protected on N1, how did they come up with killing Glirdan? (Inzil seems to have a scaringly ready answer to that!) Or were they up for Glirdan already the Night before? And if so, then why? Is there any evidence against them from Glirdan?

"Ready answer"? Not at all. I'm going on the assumption that Glirdan had to have done something to paint a target on himself, and since he posted so little, and talked quite a bit of the Ranger and the Ranger's picks, it doesn't seem to need a lot of deductive acumen to find the reason he was picked. My point is that his scenario of "what if Shasta dreamt of Nerwen" apparently had some merit to it, since they obviously did target him. That would seem to look good for Nerwen, also.

x/d with Boro

[wilwarin538]

Gah, and I felt so good about Glirdypie this game.

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

So now we have a very likely innocent in Nerwen, but no Ranger or Seer, and Nerwen will likely be killed toNight. The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I'm gonna sleep, then I have Church in the morning, but I'll be on all afternoon. I'll list some suspects then.

x'ed with nog

[Nogrod]

Just a minute... (they always say smoking is bad for you, but once again a cigarette gave me a question)

After the Night-kill is announced people wish to find out who were after the deed and why they picked the one they did. Some go for the previous Day's votes, some go for hints, seer-hints, what have you, some go for general patterns, some for what the killed said, some for what others said of the killed etc...

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Okay, I'm not sure I can express what I want to say... but it just feels odd you only come up with those quotes... and kind of do nothing else to constructively help bringing any ideas to the fore. Blah. Language fails me here.


Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Why look at Glirdan? Do you really need an answer to that?
And what I found out? That he probably would have looked like the Ranger and that's why he was killed.

As for anything else he said on Day 2, (which amounted to three posts, only two of substance), he did say that he thought the wolves in the Shasta voters would have been the later ones, and he singled out yours and Greenie's. Is that the 'summary' you had in mind?
Also, he questioned Legate some, and said he wanted to "take a closer look at [Legate]". However, since it was known at that point that Glirdan could not be the Seer, I see little chance the wolves would have killed him for that, if Legate was one of them.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

Well, I'm not sure what you're seeing. My first post I wasn't positive about Pitch, I talked about Nerwen maybe being the dream, but all my posts after that I stressed that Pitch should be the lynch, very strongly. I guess you must really just be looking at the very start of the day (when I only had the one post).

And I agree that the way that lynch went it will be much harder to look at people based on votes. Even if not everyone agreed on his suspiciousness, it was still pretty clear he'd end up being the lynch. It was like no one really wanted to, since the only reason was because of the possibility of him being Shasta's dream (he wasn't overly suspicious on his own) but everyone kind of knew it was still a good idea to do it (even Pitch realised that).

So a wolf could easily vote him and say 'oh well, he seemed to be a seer dream, of course we had to give it a try', while a wolf could have also voted for someone else and say 'Pitch wasn't suspicious enough on his own, and the seer hints were too obvious'. So a wolf could have gone either way and their votes wouldn't look that bad.

These were the votes yesterDay, just to see:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate
Pitch -> Lottie (2)
Boro -> Pitch (5)
Lottie -> Pitch (6)
Nog -> Lottie (3)
Eonwe -> Lottie (4)

So all but Greenie and Skip voted for either Pitch or Lottie.

Now those who didn't vote for Pitch. If we hadn't of lynched him we could have wasted a whole other day discussing the possibility of him being the Seer dream. Did some people perhaps want us to kill someone else so that we'd waste another Day talking about Pitch? I'd see that as being something the wolves would like. Get us to kill a different innocent, and than know that we'd go after InnocentPitch toDay. That's two Days safe for them. That may be stretching a bit, but it's not an impossible scenario.

x'ed with Inzil